Disliked{quote} Ideally you want to see it clear the tails to make it more indicative but technically a higher or lower close is a NSH or NSL. You can decide for yourself if you would want to set some conditions to validate a NSH or a NSL such as Price must close at lease 5 points above the previous close or below to be considered a NSH or a NSL. I do not have such requirement but it would be acceptable if you wanted to outline that as a requirement for you.Ignored
Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
- #17,982
- Mar 8, 2016 4:05pm Mar 8, 2016 4:05pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2010 | 9,273 Posts
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
- #17,983
- Edited 4:58pm Mar 8, 2016 4:27pm | Edited 4:58pm
- | Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Trader | 76 Posts
{quote} I understand, I also overestimate fib-levels. However with Mr. Pips teachings I've learnt that they are just a part of the equation not a holy grail. I like your chart reading and as you said, once price had wicks above previous LH, price should have a very hard time making NSL. Also now that price made a NSH and broke to the upside we could expect a complex correction, possibly deep.
Price is doing a deep correction as you said
. When the first NSH is made, do you always expect a complex correction? and possibly deep?Thank you
- #17,984
- Mar 8, 2016 5:04pm Mar 8, 2016 5:04pm
Hi All
Been kind of quiet lately going back over videos and re-reading, along with some of my own analysis and trading. When I first started trading I never thought I would be able to follow the low TF's such as the 1 & 5M, it was crazy the way it would move and bounce around. Kinda like watching Meadowlark Lemon work the ball from the top of the key
.. not the basketball forum.. got it.. anyway, between all of Damien's knowledge, plus the open banter and analysis in the thread, I dove in. I do still drift up to the 1H TF to try and spot key spots, but I am weaning off of that as my knowledge and confidence level grows. For the past 10 mths, I have not been the most consistent of traders. I opened my account with $650 and with a bunch of losses and not so many wins, I have been able to grow my account to $250 ( yes, correct number ) 
. Spent a lot of time going through the info on here, to the point that some days my head would hurt, but I believe I am starting to hear what the market has been trying say. For those of you/us who struggle, have patience and persistence. It is a grind to say the least, but will be better for it. I now trade off those two lower times and I watch trying to predict what candle is coming next, and how big it will be. Still not great at it, maybe 30-40%, but a lot better than I was 7 weeks ago. With the right risk and reward, even a 40% trader makes bank.
I had sent Damien a PM because I started using his MM spreadsheet for the month of March. I was going to send a screenshot, as I wanted him to see how he had helped me. I didn't want to post it here, as we had not talked money management yet, and didn't want to veer the thread off it's course, but with his blessing, I will be posting the screenshot here to give the newer members hope. Believe in the system. If you struggle with it at first, remember, everyone learns in different ways and at different speeds. If we have the patience to persevere, Mr Pip is living up to his name and has left us a very nice reward.
Anyway, sorry to ramble. Just wanted to let others know this works..Have patience and don't give up
P.S.. those last three smacks were my punishment fort rushing the trades and not taking a min to look at the whole picture. Had I done that, those last 3 would have combined for an approximate positive 64 pips.
Been kind of quiet lately going back over videos and re-reading, along with some of my own analysis and trading. When I first started trading I never thought I would be able to follow the low TF's such as the 1 & 5M, it was crazy the way it would move and bounce around. Kinda like watching Meadowlark Lemon work the ball from the top of the key
.. not the basketball forum.. got it.. anyway, between all of Damien's knowledge, plus the open banter and analysis in the thread, I dove in. I do still drift up to the 1H TF to try and spot key spots, but I am weaning off of that as my knowledge and confidence level grows. For the past 10 mths, I have not been the most consistent of traders. I opened my account with $650 and with a bunch of losses and not so many wins, I have been able to grow my account to $250 ( yes, correct number ) . Spent a lot of time going through the info on here, to the point that some days my head would hurt, but I believe I am starting to hear what the market has been trying say. For those of you/us who struggle, have patience and persistence. It is a grind to say the least, but will be better for it. I now trade off those two lower times and I watch trying to predict what candle is coming next, and how big it will be. Still not great at it, maybe 30-40%, but a lot better than I was 7 weeks ago. With the right risk and reward, even a 40% trader makes bank.I had sent Damien a PM because I started using his MM spreadsheet for the month of March. I was going to send a screenshot, as I wanted him to see how he had helped me. I didn't want to post it here, as we had not talked money management yet, and didn't want to veer the thread off it's course, but with his blessing, I will be posting the screenshot here to give the newer members hope. Believe in the system. If you struggle with it at first, remember, everyone learns in different ways and at different speeds. If we have the patience to persevere, Mr Pip is living up to his name and has left us a very nice reward.
Anyway, sorry to ramble. Just wanted to let others know this works..Have patience and don't give up
P.S.. those last three smacks were my punishment fort rushing the trades and not taking a min to look at the whole picture. Had I done that, those last 3 would have combined for an approximate positive 64 pips.
- #17,986
- Mar 8, 2016 5:19pm Mar 8, 2016 5:19pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
Mr. Pip -
Registered to say I've been following this thread on and off since its inception, moreso recently since I noticed your video series on youtube.
First off - Thank you for the knowledge you've shared, especially for the videos you've been posting over the last month or so. They've made such a substantial difference in how I view price action.
I do have a question however and perhaps you can take a quick look at this and let me know what I could have done better.
The chart I'm attaching is /es price action from today, 3/8. Here was my thought process:
- Price creates NSL and reverses ~11am e/t
- Now am expecting deep pullback into cyan structure zone.
- Price hits cyan structure zone / 61.8-78.6 fib retrace.
- Price rejection on 3 candle wicks and all close below the 78.6 fib.
- My expectation is that we will try for a NSL below the 11am reversal.
- Get short.
- Price moves in my direction a bit so I move my stop to b/e but am taken out.
I am risk averse so a lot of times once price moves in my direction I will move my stop to b/e, however you can see here price came back and closed right over the 88.6 then went on to make the NSL I was originally expecting.
So my question is, aside from leaving my stop above the main swing do you see anything else I could have done better here? Also once price came back and closed just over the 88.6 my expectation was that it would not be fair to think that price would make a NSL due to the fact that the retracement was so deep and that would signal to me that bears were weakening and bulls were strengthening. Is there something there that clued in that price was in fact heading to try for a NSL?
Again, thank you for the information which you've given out freely so far and thank you for any help on this.
Registered to say I've been following this thread on and off since its inception, moreso recently since I noticed your video series on youtube.
First off - Thank you for the knowledge you've shared, especially for the videos you've been posting over the last month or so. They've made such a substantial difference in how I view price action.
I do have a question however and perhaps you can take a quick look at this and let me know what I could have done better.
The chart I'm attaching is /es price action from today, 3/8. Here was my thought process:
- Price creates NSL and reverses ~11am e/t
- Now am expecting deep pullback into cyan structure zone.
- Price hits cyan structure zone / 61.8-78.6 fib retrace.
- Price rejection on 3 candle wicks and all close below the 78.6 fib.
- My expectation is that we will try for a NSL below the 11am reversal.
- Get short.
- Price moves in my direction a bit so I move my stop to b/e but am taken out.
I am risk averse so a lot of times once price moves in my direction I will move my stop to b/e, however you can see here price came back and closed right over the 88.6 then went on to make the NSL I was originally expecting.
So my question is, aside from leaving my stop above the main swing do you see anything else I could have done better here? Also once price came back and closed just over the 88.6 my expectation was that it would not be fair to think that price would make a NSL due to the fact that the retracement was so deep and that would signal to me that bears were weakening and bulls were strengthening. Is there something there that clued in that price was in fact heading to try for a NSL?
Again, thank you for the information which you've given out freely so far and thank you for any help on this.
- #17,987
- Mar 8, 2016 5:43pm Mar 8, 2016 5:43pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2010 | 9,273 Posts
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
- #17,988
- Mar 8, 2016 5:50pm Mar 8, 2016 5:50pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2010 | 9,273 Posts
Hi All Been kind of quiet lately going back over videos and re-reading, along with some of my own analysis and trading. When I first started trading I never thought I would be able to follow the low TF's such as the 1 & 5M, it was crazy the way it would move and bounce around. Kinda like watching Meadowlark Lemon work the ball from the top of the key
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
- #17,989
- Mar 8, 2016 6:03pm Mar 8, 2016 6:03pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2010 | 9,273 Posts
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
- #17,990
- Mar 8, 2016 6:41pm Mar 8, 2016 6:41pm
{quote} Congrats man! You should be proud of yourself!!
Pretty tickled Harmonic. I could never understand what it was I was unable to grasp. Read books, forums, watched youtube videos. But now am realizing, the market is not following rules. Just following fibs, or using trendline breaks, signal crossings etc, is, for lack of a better term, too rigid. I think I am pretty sure what I wasn't able to understand , is how the price actually works. Thanks to this thread, I am beginning to put the pieces together.
- #17,991
- Mar 8, 2016 6:44pm Mar 8, 2016 6:44pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
{quote} First, thank you for registering and for posting. I don't move my stop until price tests structure. This is important as you need to give the trade room to work. Also, if price does close above the 78.6 does not mean that your expectation is going to fail or that you need to change it. It does however weaken it but you must hold price accountable to the expectation until it is no longer the expectation because price has produce a different one. Your issues were on the trade management side. Clean it up and give your trades the room they...
So essentially my expectations were correct, I just botched up the management.
Will be mindful of this on my next trade and report back
- #17,992
- Mar 8, 2016 6:45pm Mar 8, 2016 6:45pm
{quote} Thank you for posting this and thank you for asking first. It's what we will get into next so I thought it was worth posting and mentioning. Keep grinding and good things will happen!
Thanks Damien. Just wanted you to know your time here is greatly appreciated.
- #17,993
- Mar 8, 2016 6:51pm Mar 8, 2016 6:51pm
I concur. The trend is your friend... Speaking of USD/JPY (233 tick). Just took this lovely little rollover for a quick 2:1... I expect it to go all the way to the 127% extension. It hit the 78.6% fib of the last swing and pounced off of it like a cheetah pouncing on a gazelle. But, I'm working late and didn't have the patience to ride it out, so I got out at the first swing candle up.
{quote} be careful with that pair. You should realize that you are in a downtrend. those small swing that you noted as NSH, could be simply part of the correction of the large swing to the downside (more to the left). just be careful...market is speeding to the downside.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
- #17,994
- Mar 8, 2016 7:17pm Mar 8, 2016 7:17pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2010 | 9,273 Posts
{quote} Thank you for the prompt response. So essentially my expectations were correct, I just botched up the management. Will be mindful of this on my next trade and report back
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
- #17,995
- Mar 8, 2016 7:18pm Mar 8, 2016 7:18pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jul 2010 | 9,273 Posts
{quote}
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Yeah, they're not too far off. Congrats on the trade! I use NinjaTrader hooked up to an FXCM demo account (all free there) for my charting, and then place my trades in MT4 land with all of my live accounts. :-) {quote}
Thanks Man,
Is the demo permanently free (with FXCM demo)?? I recently started trying out NinjaTrader the same way and I like it... wish it wasn't so expensive outright and I don't want to pay higher commissions to use it. One day
- #18,000
- Mar 8, 2016 10:52pm Mar 8, 2016 10:52pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} Nice trading and great reading!
Your effort in providing up to date streams of your live trades is something special.
Now lets look forward to the flip side when your next video smashes every trade out of the ball park!
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades