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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,521
  • Mar 8, 2016 9:54am Mar 8, 2016 9:54am
Quoting gammase1
Crude oil is reluctant to surrender its recent massive gains, in response to terrible trade data from China, in which exports fell by a quarter in February. Other commodities have suffered more this morning relative to crude, but so far nothing significant when compared to the huge price rises seen in recent sessions. Markets seem to be happy to go along with the narrative of a big fiscal stimulus from China will ensure stronger demand for commodities (see iron ore's meteoric rise yesterday). Kuwait made interesting comments, which pours...
It was suprising that the markets did not react almost at all to the export/import number. Equities are sliding but that would happen most likely anyway. Seems all the board is sleeping until ECB wakes it up with free money. only U/J is sliding back down - wonder if that can be seen as some kind of indication of a future risk-off coming sooner rather than later.
  • #139,522
  • Mar 8, 2016 10:01am Mar 8, 2016 10:01am
Quoting chester123
Im considering to fade the price if we get to 1,428x again to position on top of the range for FED and BoE as those could be doublewhammy if we get hawkish FED + dovish BoE.
I agree, I was looking at the same thing. Also had a short today and closed already. I'm also waiting now for a revisit of the same levels (or higher to wipe out stops) and then see what happens. Trying to hop on around those levels for a deep ride down.
  • #139,523
  • Mar 8, 2016 10:39am Mar 8, 2016 10:39am
Quoting chester123
BTW imarich: the time may be coming for us on G/U. At least technically the short term leg seems to be done with this 50% retrace to 1,428. Perfectly touched the lvl 1,428 sisse mentioned!! Fundamentally there seems to be no reason to move further up for an extension. The question as always is timing: Im not sure if ECB can have any impact here somehow but except for ECB there are no important events on GBP or USD side this week so I expect it to remain range bound between 1,428x-1,413x and to stay there during the beginning of next week - Im considering...
Eu .114x is the level to decide ecb which way to proceed atleast in my books ... A new high is also valid sooner or later in my book ... The train has already left the station " choose your poison time" ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,524
  • Mar 8, 2016 12:37pm Mar 8, 2016 12:37pm
chester123,

I like your thoughts on all of this. I had the .42XX level for GU in the cards as well and sisse confirmed it at .428X though he said I missed the train but this was an area to try and get in synch. However, I was looking for a test to .3800 handle first before this move (.428x) pre-NFP. It didn't develop. I am still looking for a test of the .38XX level and thought sisse referred to this level being tested prior to .428X being tested. But, I could be wrong.

Nevertheless, you have a good MAP and TIMING on your entry if you should take one. I should have waited a little longer but my Timing is still off.

As far as EU goes, it is becoming a challenge to trade as I don't understand it still. Different things in the market that affect it which messes up thoughts on why it is rising when I believe it should be sinking. I don't see FA how it should be trading this high especially with DOLLAR data good and ECB on the verge of CUTS and QE. I would think the very least it would be ranging between .0860 and .097X levels pre-ECB. As of now, I am wrong as others are calling for EU HIGHER.

Thanks for sharing and posting. Good luck!

I like the fact the DOLLAR is back challenging the 97.20 level again!
  • #139,525
  • Mar 8, 2016 2:36pm Mar 8, 2016 2:36pm
A rather flat day in the Euro while soft numbers from China keep hitting the market, making OIL and Equities crash against a wall at the highs.

There is very little room for manoeuvre in Equities worldwide to the top side but a ECB bazooka will keep markets in bid. For now, maps pretty much already set across major markets for the ECB flows. EZ Bonds, Euro and Gold completed ranges while European Equities are set for a zigzag move (farewell rally until Q4?).

What is 100% clear is that a ECB flop will trigger major corrections legs on risk as China jitters will weight very heavy until FED have the last saying ...

For now, irrelevant closes across the board but we have set the fresh flip zone in Euro for this week.....1.098x only level in play from today roll till the ECB ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,526
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:44am Mar 9, 2016 10:44am
All eyes in OIL one more time this week. Early alert triggers for a further break up. Breaking $37.4x with the ECB/W combo unlocks clean sweep with major repercussion across the board (including and especially in the Dollar). I personally WONT take that break just yet as there aren't any FA numbers that support that move.

TA wise we are crumbs away to start forming the base for a mid term bottom but for now the whole $30 / $40 range is empty from both bulls & bears and neither Supply or Demand factors support the levels.

OPEC failing to deliver in the coming weeks (with but not necessarily ECB/FED flopping) will leave RISK via China with one of the most scary legs down we would witness across all assets classes for a long time as OIL could easily take a -50% plunge into the abyss in just a few sessions, dragging with it the whole Equities world and beyond ....

Tracking very closely OIL for the upcoming sessions but starting with Europe going home today, markets will enter in comatose mode for the ECB first ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,527
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:03pm Mar 9, 2016 2:03pm
Quoting sisse
OPEC failing to deliver in the coming weeks (with but not necessarily ECB/FED flopping) will leave RISK via China with one of the most scary legs down we would witness across all assets classes for a long time as OIL could easily take a -50% plunge into the abyss in just a few sessions, dragging with it the whole Equities world and beyond ....
Buy rumor, sell fact - how much rumor & how much fact under oils recent rally? 50% plunge in a few days? Get outta town. But back to $30 or a little lower, maybe....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,528
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:35pm Mar 9, 2016 2:35pm
Quoting sisse
.... sisse
nice overview, I like your thought process boss. Let's see what happens. Personally figure more QW and a potential new cut into negative territory, heading fairly bearish into ECB.
  • #139,529
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:35pm Mar 9, 2016 3:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Buy rumor, sell fact - how much rumor & how much fact under oils recent rally? 50% plunge in a few days? Get outta town. But back to $30 or a little lower, maybe....

The stakes are surely too high for OPEC and Russia not to deliver, given how they've let expectations mount and ignite and fuel a huge rally If the meeting takes place and no agreement is reached, then price falling below $30 and making new lows is a very high probability. Conversely, what are the chances (slim, no doubt) of OPEC surpassing market expectations, with an actual production cut (even a very modest one), in a bid to further play on the current momentum and send the price to $50?

Iran is the recalcitrant party at the moment, not wanting to freeze production until it regains most, if not all, of the market share it enjoyed prior to the sanctions. Today we had a date and a venue announced by the Iraqi oil minister, the details of which were played down by Russia. Was this announcement made by the Iraqi official to purposely heighten expectations, placing greater pressure on Iran and Kuwait not to hold out and risk sending price back to where it was last month? Some complex game theory going on.
  • #139,530
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:18pm Mar 9, 2016 4:18pm
Quoting sisse
All eyes in OIL one more time this week. Early alert triggers for a further break up. Breaking $37.4x with the ECB/W combo unlocks clean sweep with major repercussion across the board (including and especially in the Dollar). I personally WONT take that break just yet as there aren't any FA numbers that support that move. TA wise we are crumbs away to start forming the base for a mid term bottom but for now the whole $30 / $40 range is empty from both bulls & bears and neither Supply or Demand factors support the levels. OPEC failing to deliver...
sisse, before we get to ECB tomorrow. could you drop a word on this statement "Breaking $37.4x with the ECB/W combo unlocks clean sweep with major repercussion across the board (including and especially in the Dollar)" --- im mostly wondering what are the implications across the board. It may not happen but just for studying purposes
  • #139,531
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:27pm Mar 9, 2016 4:27pm
Sisse can you share your view on ECB event tmrw. Provided that markets were dissapointed by last non-delivery event, what's your thought on this one today?
I'd figure Bazooka will have to step up his games and delivery something serious with his bunch of corupt crooks.
  • #139,532
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:34pm Mar 9, 2016 4:34pm
Quoting asgcorp
Sisse can you share your view on ECB event tmrw. Provided that markets were dissapointed by last non-delivery event, what's your thought on this one today? I'd figure Bazooka will have to step up his games and delivery something serious with his bunch of corupt crooks.
he usually does share his exact map/view shortly before the events - so just wait till than - its also better cuz you have the map exactly from the point where the markets are shortly prior to the event
  • #139,533
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:49pm Mar 9, 2016 4:49pm
Euro QE is not working as expected. The best mr. Draghi can do is keep his currency low. The rest has to be done by governments.

On the other side of the ocean, i think FED would be quite comfortable to allow a 1.05 eurUsd (but maybe a weaker dollar against commodities currencies) in return for markets support from a decisive dovish ECB.

Oil at the moment is a coin toss.

Got some short positions in gold last friday I'll be covering on a ECB flop tomorrow.
  • #139,534
  • Mar 9, 2016 5:22pm Mar 9, 2016 5:22pm
Both the ECB and the Fed will be more hawkish than expected and the SnP will be trading >100 pts lower by the end of next week. Book it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,535
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:57am Mar 10, 2016 6:57am
And he used the bazooka + all rates decreased. Bet hes gonna regret it once heŽll really need it Looking forward to conference. too bad I did not have pending sell on E/U. Now have to wait for retrace
  • #139,536
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:11am Mar 10, 2016 7:11am
Quoting chester123
And he used the bazooka + all rates decreased. Bet hes gonna regret it once hell really need it Looking forward to conference. too bad I did not have pending sell on E/U. Now have to wait for retrace
Lesson learned from December's disappointment by Mario. Surpassing expectations and rightly so, I think, given the moribund EZ economy. QE can always be increased in future meetings, if needed, though its efficacy is being questioned more and more.
  • #139,537
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:15am Mar 10, 2016 7:15am
and we survived it even without sisse but missing his view as well
regards
  • #139,538
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:30am Mar 10, 2016 7:30am
Double whammy from ECB as widely expected and markets reacting accordingly...clearing 1.086x target for those holding from last week @ 1.102x (@ IMARICH1 ...a new lesson from the NFP conversation...i hope you let it pan out).

Euro floor extremely feeble and tick below with the conference will send it straight non stop to the lows of the 1.07xx handle. However, now the real deal start with the conference. Expecting a rather very gloomy outlook both in inflation and forecast from the ECB given the massive bazooka.

A dark outlook will trigger the RISK play so tracking very closely DAX @ 999x.x (CHECK BTW) as we may see a large profit taking (but the rumour/sell the news play we have been trading for over a month).

Actively tracking DAX and Euro for the conference as I wont hesitate to take the reverso in both ....

Advance trading expected in the next few sessions, managing positions and tracking the ECB reaction on NY for a change in outlooks across the board....

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,539
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:32am Mar 10, 2016 7:32am
"(6) A new series of four targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO II), each with a maturity of four years, will be launched, starting in June 2016. Borrowing conditions in these operations can be as low as the interest rate on the deposit facility."

With the rate on the deposit rate at -0.40%, this is being kind with banks' interest margins, in effect paying them to lend money. With this measure, coupled with corporate debt being included in asset purchases, there is a very encouraging framework for credit growth - which is currently stagnant. Now all they need is demand in the economy to take that credit. Fiscal stimulus would definitely help.
  • #139,540
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:38am Mar 10, 2016 7:38am
It is a MAJOR BAZOOKA ...the biggest one we have seen... ever....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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