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NZD/USD

  • #10,741
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:30pm Mar 4, 2016 7:30pm
Wowwww...nice jump Bulls/kiwi!
Too bad I closed all my buy too early...lol

The Bears will surely have their position ready for the downward next week, when is the exact time the price will go down? Only time can tell...

If In case the market will have a gap down on Monday it might drop 20 to 30 pips at the current price of 0.6815 (probably 0.6785 or 0.6775 area). If it will continue to climb higher or gap up on Monday, probably it will reached 0.6835 or 0.6845 price level. Well, I could be wrong, am rarely right, hahaha

As usual, all I can say is that "...Let the Market decide where it wants to go, it's useless to predict it accurately...."

Happy weekend everyone! Take care friends!
  • #10,742
  • Mar 5, 2016 4:42am Mar 5, 2016 4:42am
Hello Liza and hi everyone else!

Just curious, is nzdusd likely to touch 0.70? I will be dead if it does...
  • #10,743
  • Mar 5, 2016 7:22am Mar 5, 2016 7:22am
Something for all here to watch is the AUD/USD, which just pushed it's head above 7 month side ranging pattern which it entered into at the bottom of the slide induced by commodity price slump. The Aussie and the Kiwi share sympathies, as demonstrated by the consecutive rise this week starting with Aussie GDP news. I was watching both when the news came out, there was nothing else to kick start the kiwi $ and it started rising in sync with the Aussie on the 5 min chart and ran to current levels. The Kiwi is only 82 pips from high set in Oct. in it's on sideways ranging pattern. The Aussie has been very strong, and closed on daily and weekly highs. If it holds and then rises above sideways pattern, I suspect we will see the kiwi test the top of it's range.
  • #10,744
  • Mar 5, 2016 12:12pm Mar 5, 2016 12:12pm
Quoting Karpa
plan A: Traditionally, rising wedges end in bearish moves so I'll be looking for shorts on lower timeframes, no position taken yet Target is around weekly pivot confluent with fibo and support Good luck! {image} plan B: I'm not buying at current price and sideline is a position and free to watch
Quoting Karpa
{quote} this was a good move today.. wiped off my expectancies edit: I mean my bearish bias was wiped off
Here's what I think went wrong, all advice or comments from other traders are more than welcome.
We were in a range for some time (21 days) and I assumed that the range would continue, due to mentioned reasons and with a little help from NFP
Instead there was a breakout but previous highs were not reached.. yet. Will we be visiting 688x/689x in the next days?
The indis I use show overbought on both H1 and H4 timeframes, but not on the daily timeframe. Daily ema200 shows first signs of trend reversal..
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The rising wedge is still there, in H1/H4, and we know that the market won't go up forever so, eventually, a correction will happen.
RBNZ is due to release it's cash rate and monetary policies statement this week, till then, let's trade light and safe

Good luck with picking your side of the market
  • #10,745
  • Mar 5, 2016 1:34pm Mar 5, 2016 1:34pm
Here is why I think Kiwi will retrace before any major rally, the Aussie is very much overbought on 4hr chart, so this rally needs a break to gain strength. If the markets open with gap up I think it's not a good sign for bulls as it is usually a sign of end for the trend given that both aussi and kiwi are overbought with aussie ofcourse being more overbought at these levels.

my 2cents
  • #10,746
  • Mar 5, 2016 1:41pm Mar 5, 2016 1:41pm
Quoting midouch
Here is why I think Kiwi will retrace before any major rally, the Aussie is very much overbought on 4hr chart, so this rally needs a break to gain strength. If the markets open with gap up I think it's not a good sign for bulls as it is usually a sign of end for the trend given that both aussi and kiwi are overbought with aussie ofcourse being more overbought at these levels. my 2cents
overbought
rat
  • #10,747
  • Mar 5, 2016 2:59pm Mar 5, 2016 2:59pm
Quoting rattyo
{quote} overbought
I would rather say buy on pullbacks instead of simply overbought,
The Trend Is Your Friend
  • #10,748
  • Mar 5, 2016 3:10pm Mar 5, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting Soyo24
{quote} I would rather say buy on pullbacks instead of simply overbought,
absolutely
rat
  • #10,749
  • Mar 5, 2016 5:40pm Mar 5, 2016 5:40pm
Now that zero interest rates, Quantitative Easing and negative interest rates have failed, should the world's central banks start printing money and handing it over to real people?
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/80...es-have-failed
  • #10,750
  • Mar 5, 2016 8:07pm Mar 5, 2016 8:07pm
Ahh, what I really hate is trying to find where the next movement of the market will go...that will give me nosebleed ( maybe I should stop making my own chart analysis it makes me feel like am trying too hard,lol) and sometimes the more you try to analysed the market accurately the more it will prove you wrong...

The best thing to trade this market, is ignore everything and just trade it according to your own understanding...
In forex trading, there is no right or wrong strategy, what really matters is if you win profits at the end of the day, week or months! right? And what does pure profits means? The "funds in your bank account" the result from your hard work in trading.


Take care everyone and give yourself a very good rest this weekend!
  • #10,751
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:43pm Mar 6, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting Liza J
Ahh, what I really hate is trying to find where the next movement of the market will go...that will give me nosebleed ( maybe I should stop making my own chart analysis it makes me feel like am trying too hard,lol) and sometimes the more you try to analysed the market accurately the more it will prove you wrong... The best thing to trade this market, is ignore everything and just trade it according to your own understanding... In forex trading, there is no right or wrong strategy, what really matters is if you win profits at the end of...
True, when we backtrack a strategy or indicator/EA, no fundies are taken into account and everything ends up ok..
only to fail in real time
  • #10,752
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:45pm Mar 6, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting Karpa
{quote} True, when we backtrack a strategy or indicator/EA, no fundies are taken into account and everything ends up ok.. only to fail in real time
long and strong
rat
  • #10,753
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:53pm Mar 6, 2016 12:53pm
AUD, CAD and NZD are commodity currencies so why not check commodity prices.. maybe they can give us some clues about general sentiment
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  • #10,754
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:55pm Mar 6, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting rattyo
{quote} long and strong
Indeed rattyo, long and strong
a nice pullback would come handy thou
  • #10,755
  • Mar 6, 2016 1:02pm Mar 6, 2016 1:02pm
Quoting roger44
Now that zero interest rates, Quantitative Easing and negative interest rates have failed, should the world's central banks start printing money and handing it over to real people? http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/80...es-have-failed
Can never happen. When has anything benefited the common man equally - rich and poor ?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #10,756
  • Mar 6, 2016 2:16pm Mar 6, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting rattyo
{quote} overbought
Yea you laugh at my comments, as someone else laughed me when I predicted the top of Gold earlier and now see where each of us stands.

If you can't handle other opinion, just quit and do not trade. Soon you'll realise who was on the winning side.

Bye jerk
  • #10,757
  • Mar 6, 2016 2:18pm Mar 6, 2016 2:18pm
Quoting Soyo24
{quote} I would rather say buy on pullbacks instead of simply overbought,
Haha, like the gold dipping to 1250 from 1274? Yea buy on pullback if you call 50-80 pips a pullback. Depends on your trading style really lol
  • #10,758
  • Mar 6, 2016 3:13pm Mar 6, 2016 3:13pm
NU possible scenario as seen here on weekly charts. just my 2 cents.
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  • #10,759
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:13pm Mar 6, 2016 4:13pm
Quoting Liza J
If In case the market will have a gap down on Monday it might drop 20 to 30 pips at the current price of 0.6815 (probably 0.6785 or 0.6775 area). If it will continue to climb higher or gap up on Monday, probably it will reached 0.6835 or 0.6845 price level. Well, I could be wrong, am rarely right, hahaha As usual, all I can say is that "...Let the Market decide where it wants to go, it's useless to predict it accurately...." Happy weekend everyone! Take care friends!
Goodmorning everyone! Hope everyone had a nice and enjoyable weekend!

I woke up to see the price of NU went down, it did touch the price of 0.6785 minutes earlier, it is trying to reached 0.6800 area again? Well let's wait and see.... Happy Monday everyone!
  • #10,760
  • Mar 6, 2016 5:33pm Mar 6, 2016 5:33pm
still a bear,but thinking of shorting above .6900
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