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AUD/USD

  • #95,861
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:01am Mar 4, 2016 4:01am
held pretty well above 0.7350 next resistance at 0.7380-0.74 if that is cleared watch out

On the sideline right now will buying next week if the above level is cleared
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,862
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:56am Mar 4, 2016 5:56am
Quoting Klemantina
{quote} I heard there was a cyclone that hit some ships that were delivering the Iron Ore to China so the price went up and this trend might stay for couple of month. There is couple of reasons that the AUD should drop soon: a) According to the biggest banks there will be at least 2 interest rate cuts in Australia this year. b) US will probably increase rates this year. c) The trouble in China. d) Oil Prices will probably go lower and make the USD stronger. That's my 2 cents.

Thank you for reply.

Let's see if 0.74 hold.
  • #95,863
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:38am Mar 4, 2016 7:38am
short at 0.74
  • #95,864
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:44am Mar 4, 2016 7:44am
jobs great number inflation not so good so interest rates on hold risk off most probably we will have more up room on the upside on aussi plus good for equities
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,865
  • Mar 4, 2016 11:19am Mar 4, 2016 11:19am
closing the week at current price level is very bullish and most probably sends this pair to 0.76xx
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,866
  • Mar 4, 2016 11:27am Mar 4, 2016 11:27am
Quoting blue_z_zz
closing the week at current price level is very bullish and most probably sends this pair to 0.76xx
I think the long-term target might even be at 0.7700 and above.
  • #95,867
  • Mar 4, 2016 11:32am Mar 4, 2016 11:32am
Just go with the trend.
Don't short a rocket.
Short the rocket only when it is running out of jet fuel.

Have a great weekend all!
  • #95,868
  • Mar 4, 2016 11:37am Mar 4, 2016 11:37am
5 days of bull run. Aud up by 4+% against usd and the 1st leading currency against usd in a month. Not so practical with economical news being not bullish. Somethings fishy here. A major news coming on aud to further make it strong? Or we will see a 4th bounce from 0.74 level? Aud is up by 1.05% against usd today with 4% up since a month,week. I agree this week is a bull run but stay safe with a huge pull back to 0.7level unless usd gets weak or strong aud news.
Happy weekend all.
Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #95,869
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:08pm Mar 4, 2016 12:08pm
very sorry for my incorrect calculations this week all. Ended this week -$1,200 usd but have plenty more to continue trading. I say let's wait for confirmation to sell
  • #95,870
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:14pm Mar 4, 2016 12:14pm
Topping on 4hr chart soon, which should see a downside about 50-100 pips from the peak. Shorted a small position
  • #95,871
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:11pm Mar 4, 2016 2:11pm
Something's brewing
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  • #95,872
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:34pm Mar 4, 2016 2:34pm
Looks like we will have a short-term top in place. If it spikes again to x30/40 short again
  • #95,873
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:57pm Mar 4, 2016 2:57pm
Now AUD \ USD got a good impulse to up. When he reached the resistance 0.74300, slightly paused. slight correction is expected, and then perhaps move toward the next level of 0.77550
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #95,874
  • Mar 5, 2016 8:23am Mar 5, 2016 8:23am
My friends in China told me that bear has surrendered on Iron futures (IM1605), they simply dont have enough iron ore to delivery on date, and cheap Australian ore/Brazilian ore are on the sea, still need one more week to reach china,due to the bad weather. It is very likely IM1605 will rise for another 3 days, which is 20% higher, pushing AUDUSD to 0.75.


That's his opinion, though, but i think it is quite persuasive. Any way, I ll add more short if it really reach 0.75, and hoping things in China become normal again.
  • #95,875
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:04am Mar 6, 2016 12:04am
Inserted Video



Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,876
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:43am Mar 6, 2016 4:43am
Quoting MustafaKhlid
My friends in China told me that bear has surrendered on Iron futures (IM1605), they simply dont have enough iron ore to delivery on date, and cheap Australian ore/Brazilian ore are on the sea, still need one more week to reach china,due to the bad weather. It is very likely IM1605 will rise for another 3 days, which is 20% higher, pushing AUDUSD to 0.75. That's his opinion, though, but i think it is quite persuasive. Any way, I ll add more short if it really reach 0.75, and hoping things in China become normal again.
Quoting MustafaKhlid
Iron ore futures in China (1605) reached 396 right now, that's unbelievable cause there is 98 million tons in stockpile and steel mills didnt increase their production, in fact, they plan to cut 3 million steel workers this year. My dad owns a construction company in china and I know this for sure. How can there be decreasing demands and price keeps rising? Either im completely idiot or there is a gaint bubble forming. I have shorts since 0.725 and it's hurting me,but i wont give up, I will add more shorts at 0.737 and 0.742.
Please comment on the confilict - is it not enough iron ore to deliver or a stockpile of 98 million tons?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #95,877
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:46am Mar 6, 2016 4:46am
AU gameplan this week: buy back upon pullback to 7340-60 area TP1 7460 TP2 7540 SL 40 points. Waste of time fighting a bull mid-term market.
  • #95,878
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:48am Mar 6, 2016 4:48am
I would short it at the open with a sl at fridays high, its deep past its upper bollinger band.
The Trend Is Your Friend
  • #95,879
  • Mar 6, 2016 5:44am Mar 6, 2016 5:44am
Quoting dab
{quote} {quote} Please comment on the confilict - is it not enough iron ore to deliver or a stockpile of 98 million tons?
Most of the 98 millions tons iron ore are stocks of steel mills or at harbors, but shorts have not enough stock in Dailian commodity exchange. At least thats what I was been told.
  • #95,880
  • Mar 6, 2016 6:05am Mar 6, 2016 6:05am
it is clear that we will watch 0.8080
Now trend Confirmation confirmed
Forex Philosopher
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