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Forex Made Millionaire Thread for Blog Swing Trades

  • #2,001
  • Edited 2:53am Mar 5, 2016 2:16am | Edited 2:53am
Quoting Pip-Miner
This is my contribution to trades for the week. Any discussions or other trade setups ready to go welcome. EURUSD: spike caused by us news bounced of the 38 fib retracement, just below the 100 day moving average. Since then a long bearish wick was formed and price has started the retracement. Short opportunity ideally in the blue area or before price retraces further down targeting 0 fib retracement. {image}
Pip-Miner,

you are usualy right ,
but maybe you should not rush in EU shorts just yet. There was also a long bullish wick just there..... and price is above previous resistance turned support and closed above daily rising trendline....besides, there is also inverted H&S pattern here that might play out. Maybe turning bearish will need at least a day or two into the new week.
( BTW, maybe this long "bearish" wick is boucing of 200 ema support before continuing higher for a while)
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PVSRA
  • #2,002
  • Mar 5, 2016 3:46pm Mar 5, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
This is my contribution to trades for the week. Any discussions or other trade setups ready to go welcome. EURUSD: spike caused by us news bounced of the 38 fib retracement, just below the 100 day moving average. Since then a long bearish wick was formed and price has started the retracement. Short opportunity ideally in the blue area or before price retraces further down targeting 0 fib retracement. {image}
EDIT: added the 200 ma ( blue line) , monthly pivot level.
STRATEGY: An initial small short position will be taken on Monday around the levels specified, depending on how price plays ( 1020 - 1068) and a second if price decides to go to the 50 fib retracement (1.11).
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  • #2,003
  • Mar 5, 2016 9:40pm Mar 5, 2016 9:40pm
My long term and medium term analysis on the GBP/JPY

Long Term:

In the first chart I have highlighted a H & S Pattern On The Daily Chart which shows a target to the 130.00 - 131.00 area. This is also the 161.8 extension target of the last move down. The PA has just retraced to fill in the Gap ( the pink area) which was caused by Monday 21/2 opening, which is also the 32.8 fib level of the last move down and not far from the neckline (163.6 area). The market has now filled in the gap, and hit the fib level, but because it is close to the neck line it may want to test this level again. Target of the H & S is 130.433 approx the same as the 161.8 extension.

I have taken small short positions at the gap, SL are above the neckline, I will be adding to my position on every leg down. It took 312 days for the currency to climb to the neckline from the target so this is a long term trade. I don't expect the fall back down to be much quicker.
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Medium Term:

In the 1H chart we can see that PA has hit the . 318 fib level almost to the pip. It has closed the gap (pink area) caused 21/2. The next target is either down or it may retest the neck line (broken white line) at 163.66. Either way if price reaches the 50% fib 164.869 I would consider the set up failed. So this would be a good place for SL.

The MACD shows divergence for this pair, so be careful if you are placing any long trades.
Short term Targets for shorts would be the 100% Fib Extension at around 150.00 This would also be a major psychological barrier, so if price hits this area you could expect a good bounce

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  • #2,004
  • Mar 5, 2016 10:55pm Mar 5, 2016 10:55pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} I was short UJ a couple days ago but it went no where fast so i got out. Im still looking to get short again, but it seems like its a mess right now and im seeing a possibility of a rise to 115-116 before it falls off the cliff Pink lines illustrate the possible triangle consolidation/pink hash line showing possible bull flag within the triangle Are you seeing something different? If so, can you please drop a chart so i can get a different view? Or anyone else for that matter.Thanks {image}
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Since on the weekly charts UJ had a price had a big down move i'm just following that. Also, since price started to consolidate at the high from the 26th and was close enough to the upper purple line, i decided this was a good place to place a short.

Theory is if this down move on the weekly continues then the sellers will probably continue to sell from the upper purple line. I'd be adding on trades on the way down to 111, lock some in and see what happens. I'd say its a 50/50 chance of happening.
  • #2,005
  • Mar 6, 2016 2:18am Mar 6, 2016 2:18am
ar
Quoting TrendDiscipl
My long term and medium term analysis on the GBP/JPY Long Term: In the first chart I have highlighted a H & S Pattern On The Daily Chart which shows a target to the 130.00 - 131.00 area. This is also the 161.8 extension target of the last move down. The PA has just retraced to fill in the Gap ( the pink area) which was caused by Monday 21/2 opening, which is also the 32.8 fib level of the last move down and not far from the neckline (163.6 area). The market has now filled in the gap, and hit the fib level, but because it is close to the neck line...
thanks for the analysis trend , much appreciated . I'm waiting for 2 daily downs before Implementing the "famous" addin pyramid follow the trend methodology , similar to what I implemented last week with 10 addins, will let you do the maths on the number of potential pips, something I failed to executive miserably due to distractions but still made good returns. Here is a diagram ,using human psychology retraces between the start and end of the Asian session, the Asian session being Green. Any thoughts on improving the process will be appreciated.
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  • #2,006
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:01am Mar 6, 2016 4:01am
Quoting Pip-Miner
ar {quote} thanks for the analysis trend , much appreciated . I'm waiting for 2 daily downs before Implementing the "famous" addin pyramid follow the trend methodology , similar to what I implemented last week with 10 addins, will let you do the maths on the number of potential pips, something I failed to executive miserably due to distractions but still made good returns. Here is a diagram ,using human psychology retraces between the start and end of the Asian session, the Asian session being Green. Any thoughts on improving the process will be...
Hi Pip-Miner

would love to see that chart, but can't open it for some reason. Can you re post it so it can be enlarged

Thanks
  • #2,007
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:17am Mar 6, 2016 4:17am
GJ clear mid-term uptrend emerging. recommended strat: buy back on pullbacks. GU is strong, yen weak, GJ to trade higher. 160.20-40 area to buy back any pullbacks TP1 163.20 TP2 164.40. Worth watching GU reaction @ 4120-4140. GU strong weekly close, also a decent buyback. 4140-60 area buy back pullback SL WP-20 pips, which is 4080 TP1 4260 TP2 4340. Just those 2 trades easy 400+ points this week.
  • #2,008
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:25am Mar 6, 2016 4:25am
Quoting asgcorp
GJ clear mid-term uptrend emerging. recommended strat: buy back on pullbacks. GU is strong, yen weak, GJ to trade higher. 160.20-40 area to buy back any pullbacks TP1 163.20 TP2 164.40. Worth watching GU reaction @ 4120-4140. GU strong weekly close, also a decent buyback. 4140-60 area buy back pullback SL WP-20 pips, which is 4080 TP1 4260 TP2 4340. Just those 2 trades easy 400+ points this week.
so imagine the returns on a 5 day down trend , do the maths ... pick a week where it went down for a week, buying the reversals between the start and end of the Asian sessions or major news let us know ..
  • #2,009
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:30am Mar 6, 2016 4:30am
Quoting asgcorp
GJ clear mid-term uptrend emerging. recommended strat: buy back on pullbacks. GU is strong, yen weak, GJ to trade higher. 160.20-40 area to buy back any pullbacks TP1 163.20 TP2 164.40. Worth watching GU reaction @ 4120-4140. GU strong weekly close, also a decent buyback. 4140-60 area buy back pullback SL WP-20 pips, which is 4080 TP1 4260 TP2 4340. Just those 2 trades easy 400+ points this week.

Forex doesn't pull back on retracements, i.e. pull back on a pull back.
The Trend Is Your Friend
  • #2,010
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:32am Mar 6, 2016 4:32am
dragon - gbpjpy this is what I tried doing last week . green = Asian , purple = European, blue is American , red is cross over between European and American. ideally would of bought all the retraces where the red arrows , averaged it in , sold end week with stop losses behind the trend line or bE to the average. do the maths how many pips ??
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  • #2,011
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:33am Mar 6, 2016 4:33am
Quoting Pip-Miner
dragon - gbpjpy this is what I tried doing last week . green = Asian , purple = European, blue is American , red is cross over between European and American. ideally would of bought all the retraces where the red arrows , averaged it in , sold end week with stop losses behind the trend line or bE to the average. do the maths how many pips ?? {image}
Put the 7 ema or sma on the hourly then buy/sell all the closing crosses.
The Trend Is Your Friend
  • #2,012
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:38am Mar 6, 2016 4:38am
Quoting Soyo24
{quote} Put the 7 ema or sma on the hourly then buy/sell all the closing crosses.
any other improvements ?
  • #2,013
  • Mar 6, 2016 4:38am Mar 6, 2016 4:38am
Quoting Soyo24
{quote} Forex doesn't pull back on retracements, i.e. pull back on a pull back.
so what's your recommended trade plan please post with sl and tp thanks
  • #2,014
  • Mar 6, 2016 6:38am Mar 6, 2016 6:38am
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} any other improvements ?
you could put Bollinger Bands on it so when the bands tighten up you could tighten up your sl just in case it go's the other way.
  • #2,015
  • Mar 6, 2016 6:54am Mar 6, 2016 6:54am
<p>GBPJPY is set to go down this week. Yen is gaining strength against all currencies for several months now. I tried shorting GJ last week but it wanted to go up still. Friday may have been the top of this up move. Going to go short something , long yen trade. Already short UJ but may add or change into something else.
  • #2,016
  • Mar 6, 2016 6:55am Mar 6, 2016 6:55am
Quoting Soyo24
{quote} Forex doesn't pull back on retracements, i.e. pull back on a pull back.
Good point
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
  • #2,017
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:46am Mar 6, 2016 11:46am
Hey gang, just got back home from the wedding. Gonna try and crank out the outlook after all...
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,018
  • Mar 6, 2016 11:55am Mar 6, 2016 11:55am
Quoting Geppy
Hey gang, just got back home from the wedding. Gonna try and crank out the outlook after all...
Thanks Geppy, look forward to reading it
  • #2,019
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:38pm Mar 6, 2016 12:38pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey gang, just got back home from the wedding. Gonna try and crank out the outlook after all...
Whew, a bit rushed but here it is:

http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...look-3-6-2016/

Nap time!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #2,020
  • Mar 6, 2016 12:56pm Mar 6, 2016 12:56pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Whew, a bit rushed but here it is: http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...look-3-6-2016/ Nap time!
Thanks for this marathon effort Geppy; much appreciated!.

"In terms of entry, I’ll be looking to the 1-hour chart. Price should be supported by the 100-hour moving average and I’d be a buyer in the 160.00-160.50 range"

Wondering if you meant the "50-hour moving average" there....?

Cheers
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