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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,501
  • Edited 3:01pm Mar 4, 2016 2:50pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting IMARICH1
....Nevertheless, I get your point; However, I am not sure how you would really see the ZIG and ZAG for this kind of move on a Longer Time Frame. I saw the bounce from .0910 and looked for the top of the bounce(Direct Play) to go LOWER with the Strong OVERSHOOT In Non-Farm. Learning....or maybe not..... Thanks for all your input this week!
hmm ...

Look mate to be honest with you I think you have a very heavy baggage on your back. Most of the confusion is because mixing up very simple ideas with your previous trading experience.

Its hard to address your inner trading demons (we all have them) in every single technicality but i can guarantee you after a few months chatting that your CORE issue is that you are not been able to differentiate properly the SIZE, SCOPE and TIMING of your TimeFrame you are trading.

My 2 cents, Either you micro trade in tiny intraday charts or you sit properly and trade short term swings (forget about longer than that). Whatever you choose DONT try to translate a MAJOR NFP with RATES swing in a micro trade ...don't even look at it !!! You are sabotaging yourself.

Likewise, if you want to short term swing STOP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! even PEAKING at anything below H4 not even by curiosity ... Make your TF (whatever TF) YOURS AND ONLY YOURS, so your ABC, zigzag or what have you, IS RIGHT OR WRONG, for YOU AND ONLY YOU...

Try that for a few weeks you will thank me later...

Just a quick reminder of what happened the last time we have similar discussion ...This was posted live on spot addressing your same doubts

Quoting sisse
Let me ask you a question, without taking anything else in the analysis, what would you think are the odds that the current levels (breach to the the 1.13xx) being just a wick in the Euro Weekly candle?.
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sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,502
  • Edited 4:10pm Mar 4, 2016 3:51pm | Edited 4:10pm
Thanks sisse. I couldn't agree more with your diagnosis. My prognosis depends on me.

I need to stop watching the smaller TF charts. I do this more on news trading flows but it affects me when I enter a position at the wrong place or time. Biggest issues for me. I will attempt to trade off the LTF charts and see what happens.

Perhaps, PA today at the HIGHS could just be a wick like .135X was at one time. Looking at the DAY chart you posted I can see the ZIG ZAG in it as we have basically been going down since the (B) or .135X. and (C) should be near .073X possibly by or near ECB. That's how I read it.

It appears the DOLLAR is going to HOLD the 97.20 level today which I believe you indicated earlier was KEY.


Have a great weekend and thanks for the help! Some day I hope I can send or buy you a drink! You have earned it!

IMARICH1
  • #139,503
  • Mar 4, 2016 3:53pm Mar 4, 2016 3:53pm
Quoting sisse
Lots of noise from the OIL front with a real pcc deal in the supply side triggering Imminent break up alerts. All eyes on 34.7x for this week. Lots of hard stop on the highs. A break will trigger a sharp momentum leg +10/15% non stop ...
Very strong close in OIL confirming the expected break since early this week. A very soft hand from ECB/FED and we are on the verge of a huge rally. For now 42.5x unlocked with 36.7x last (and strong) hurdle left in between.

Quoting sisse
Eager equities bulls keep pushing in a hurry. When day seemed to be set for a chop US session, US Equities triggering imminent break up alerts for the closing session. Officially we have OIL (since yesterday)and Equities today on the verge of clean sweeps.
Equities closing soft on the day but also confirmed the expected break on the Week. However, after NFP they officially need a hand from somewhere else to continue much further than 202x.x as Markets are aligning back with FED expectations.

Quoting sisse
but more importantly GOLD also triggering important early alerts for a change in short term outlook from neutral to sell for the FED/ECB combo. 126x.x
Gold too close to call TA wise. Bastards closing at the expected 1260.xx to the tick ...one to track for the next 2 weeks ....

Quoting sisse
......Complex zigzag triggered after breaking correlation with Equities yesterday. [check] The play extends much beyond the ECB positioning with 1.102x top, 1.091x as flip zone and 1.083x very feeble floor for the news leg.
Quoting sisse
...... zigzag play 1.098x -> 1.091x for a chance to take a test 1.108x [still open] before ECB. A miss will only provide momentum. To the other side with a overshoot, Direct play with 1.098x -> 1.091x to take soft lows and complete the short term leg before ECB 1.073x. Both sides tradable as its expected in Neutral outlook.
Finally on the Euro, ZigZag was the play at the end for the news flows play. It completed the expected top to bottom to top range but it left the short term swing play undecided at these levels until ECB....

Not much to do here at the close, same levels, same trades and same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,504
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:11pm Mar 4, 2016 4:11pm
Quoting sisse
...and here we go for NFP... Not expecting much from the number itself as the strong trend in employment is very solid. However, we have ECB/FED in play in the next following weeks so perfect timing for positioning ... --> On the fundamental side Expecting inline or slightly better numbers to confirm the solid trend. An overshoot will kill all FED Doves for the foreseeable future and will put rate hikes inline with FED expectations for this year. A flop wont have major implication in the employment trend but it will keep expectations of hikes not...
sisse, thank you for this discussion and now:

I completely understand the direct play. 1,091x held and the direct play did not occur.

On the zigzag:

you wrote: "Inline for prolly an uneventful day with equities on driver sit for momentum with zigzag play 1.098x -> 1.091x for a chance to take a test 1.108x before ECB. A miss will only provide momentum"

and post-NFP I did not understand how the flow makes zig-zag because it did not when looking at M1/5/15 as u told imrich - I was looking at it exactly the same way imarich did in his first chart showing his zig-zag and I did not see it there. But from the sentence you posted it seems as if the zig-zag is gonna be the flow only after NFP.

However, the whole corrective leg is composed of zig-zag (pls, see the chart, is it right?) and I guess thats what u meant but we did not get it.

But 1 more question: you say that if one wants to trade short term swing one should not look lower than H4/D1 TF but you also say that the swing is composed of the post-events/news flows, which provide the ebbs and momentum, which we can use to ride it. So lets say I catch the short term swing at the start looking at H4/D1 - so good for me - but how can I possibly use the news flow to join the short term swing if I cannot zoom in, i.e. I dont see whats going on there???

Thank you
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  • #139,505
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:48pm Mar 4, 2016 4:48pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} ... the whole corrective leg is composed of zig-zag
hmm ...

A couple of things:

--> First you need to understand that I come from a very strong pure price action background TA wise and I am afraid some of the most basic price action concepts are sometimes misunderstood by some here. The main short-circuit in concepts is because most of traders in these boards come from an indicator base mindset even if later they are closer to just trading price areas (most of them using 'magic lines' alone ...but still better that the laggers). `

TAwise, I only see Support, Resistance, breaks and rejections in price moving in 'waves' extending or shrinking a trading range. Basic concept like a swing high/low, fading a levels, taking a break is the only things in in my arsenal.

So when I see your chart, I only see 1 corrective wave (which is an impulsive move after a break out) before the one that you have with the number 1. But that one is not a zigzag play but rather is the most simple direct leg (break/pullback to break) ... A corrective wave not necessarily is a zig zag ..not at all...

Quoting chester123
{quote} ... but how can I possibly use the news flow to join the short term swing if I cannot zoom in, i.e. I dont see whats going on there???
--> Second, because peaking at H4 in a particular time doesn't mean trading every single wave inside of it.

My random comment of looking at H4 was a general concept for when you need to zoom in for a particular area/event that you are planning to trade in a short term leg.

A H4 leg alone is too close for swinging but is nothing wrong to peak at closer (not too close) chart to get in synch with the current flow of the market before you get in especially when you know you will have a volatility play (NFP, ECB) to pinpoint where soft hands are going to get blown, etc etc etc

Look, a few weeks ago a fellow trader here offer to make some live video/podcast sessions to understand some of the core principles in price action, fundamental flows and key TA areas for trading. I told him that as long as he set the logistic and etc and keep it open and free for a limited group of real serious traders I will be happy to have a chat.

I think too many questions have been raised in these thread about basic understanding of macro FA moves, basic TA and price action while some of the really good posters, giving great views and calls here got forgotten in the noise so let see if we can organise a few minutes per week to address these questions in a more organize way so we don't repeat ourselves every second page ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,506
  • Edited Mar 5, 2016 3:20am Mar 4, 2016 5:26pm | Edited Mar 5, 2016 3:20am
Quoting sisse
{quote} hmm ... A couple of things: --> First you need to understand that I come from a very strong pure price action background TA wise and I am afraid some of the most basic price action concepts are sometimes misunderstood by some here. The main short-circuit in concepts is because most of traders in these boards come from an indicator base mindset even if later they are closer to just trading price areas (most of them using 'magic lines' alone ...but still better that the laggers). ` TAwise, I only see Support, Resistance, breaks and rejections...
Thank you for the answer.

About the concept of this thread: I know very well that there are many valuable posts deep in the history of this thread - and many things repeat all the time. Ive been here for more than a year and recently I went back about 3 years. I copied most of the theoretical parts of your posts into word document, added some of my comments and wanted to make a real textbook-like comprehensive text by summarizing all your theoretical posts (for my use of course - to get more clear understanding). But I gotta say that its not possible as many things were said in paricular circumstances, discussions, some are hard to understand for me, and its just very hard to generallize it and I could end up with completely diferent text than you would ever write so I gave it up. I mean I gave up remaking the text! I still value the posts as they are and reading through them.

So if there was any platform where we could discuss the theoretical issues, I would be more than happy if I was allowed to join. Because its true that the questions repeat a lot and we always talk about one particular issue but there is no more general discussion about some concepts as a whole and how to use them - even though you try very hard to explain many things and often the posts are very rich/valuable (e.g. like discussing risk/timing etc. with imarich). And I guess it would be much better to have this thread as a place to share trading views/ideas than just randomly running into complex and complicated theoretical stuff in between. So if we were to really efficiently communicate it would be much better to have some other platform for some general/thepretical discussions.

P.S.: if we ever evolve to some kind of suggested communication I would be more than glad to take notes or make some transcript (with your consent of course) cuz we all know that to learn these things you have to go back all the time until you internalize it. Lol I guess that would be much better than me making a "book" about ur trading from your own posts
  • #139,507
  • Mar 5, 2016 12:48am Mar 5, 2016 12:48am
Quoting sisse
Choose your poison time in the EURO... I already choose mine... sisse
Hi Sisse,

I guess what you're saying here is that price is at an important level and could go either way. If ECB/Fed both do nothing this month then price will probably go up. If either ECB or Fed take action then price will probably go down. So what we're betting on is the probability of ECB and/or Fed taking action.

I'm thinking that the Fed not raising rates this month is already priced in because not many people expect it. So the better choice here would be to choose short on the off-chance that they do raise this month. Of course that would go badly if they drop rates again, but the probability of that is surely very low.

As for the ECB, that's hard for me to call. I would probably favour at least some kind of action to none at all, but I'm looking forward to your views on this next week. So again, the higher probability choice would be to go short.

Based on that, I'm guessing I should choose my poison from the short bottle. This may be way too simplistic, as there are correlations (or breaking of) with other instruments to consider too. But I prefer simple!

Thanks always for your posts.
You reap what you sow.
  • #139,508
  • Mar 5, 2016 10:27am Mar 5, 2016 10:27am
I think there is a grave danger that some newer traders who frequent this thread fall into group think, by attempting to use the same approach as Sisse (even the same language), without appreciating the intricacies of his methodology and the thought process involved, not to mention the many years - and thousands of trades placed - it has undoubtedly taken for him to attain his impressive "feel" for the market.

This attempt to closely replicate what they perceive to be Sisse's thinking is quite often clouding their thinking, leading to analysis that is overly complicated for that individual, not really their own and, therefore, something they don't have confidence in or fully trust, sometimes causing them to get nervous soon after a trade is triggered and the position moves into the red.

I really enjoy Sisse's contributions to this thread and have great respect for his analysis, despite not always being in agreement. The same goes for other posters - The Fool, USDBear, Gator (plus a few others). At times, some quality discussions take place (where thinking is challenged by opposing views and succinct analysis, discussions from which we can all learn) but on other occasions that flow is absent and instead the thread is dominated with constant questions, going over (what I see as) the same ground, when Sisse has - on many occasions - given some golden nuggets for less experienced traders to take away and use to guide them in their analysis and development as traders.
  • #139,509
  • Mar 5, 2016 2:00pm Mar 5, 2016 2:00pm
I kinda agree and kinda don't with your analysis. The thing is, if we all sit quiet and say nothing, we won't get a better view at Sisse's way of looking at the markets. I must say that I found the interactions between Sisse and Imarich and Chester very educational and I found more "gold nuggets" exposed because of that than if there wouldn't have been questions.

On the other hand I agree with you that copying a style isn't the way to go. For me at least, I also try to harvest the gold nuggets and try to implement them in my own style. I am very inspired by Sisse, MaxDoom, Gator and a couple of other exemplary and experienced traders. That doesn't mean that a one on one copy is called for, this will often end with a blown account because you don't really know what you're doing.

These two points together make me come to the conclusion that it's a positive thing to ask questions, discuss and explore possibilities with trading styles and being inspired by other traders is surely a healthy educational experience. But trading based off of "signals" based on other traders' analyses is definitely wrong but I don't think most people active in this thread fall in this category.
  • #139,510
  • Mar 5, 2016 2:16pm Mar 5, 2016 2:16pm
Too early to call it a graveyard shift for the USD bulls, they are out there still waiting to come out and tackle hard.
USDX D1 chart clear flag pattern in the making in a strong uptrend.

Although the initial reaction for NFP was USD-negative, next week I see EU/Gold/AU getting hit hard by dollar bulls. Only strong survivers are GU and oil.
Difference between GU and EU is that GU hit 3850, which is a multi-year heavy support zone and therefore new uptrend likely to emerge here.
EU meanwhile Draghi likely to play it down, more easing and regular ECB crap, EU is weak still and Friday move likely to fade out.

I'd say we will hear hawkish rhetoric and probabilities of 1-2 rate hikes will increase therefore boosting USD next week.

Let's see how it goes. GU decent R/R setup LONG upon pullback to 4140-60 area SL 60 points TP1 4320 TP2 4360.
  • #139,511
  • Mar 5, 2016 2:26pm Mar 5, 2016 2:26pm
Quoting ExForX
I kinda agree and kinda don't with your analysis. The thing is, if we all sit quiet and say nothing, we won't get a better view at Sisse's way of looking at the markets. I must say that I found the interactions between Sisse and Imarich and Chester very educational and I found more "gold nuggets" exposed because of that than if there wouldn't have been questions. On the other hand I agree with you that copying a style isn't the way to go. For me at least, I also try to harvest the gold nuggets and try to implement them in my own style. I am very...
Fair enough, mate.

I enjoy this thread when it's fluid with lots of contributors bringing thoughtful analysis to the table. Personally, I don't come here purely for the educational aspect or wanting to be mentored. But that's just me, my personal preferences, and this is an open forum so there will always be a mix of content.
  • #139,512
  • Mar 7, 2016 2:26am Mar 7, 2016 2:26am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} U/J was quick to finish its leg, seems like another go for 112.60's will fallow..
USD/JPY 113.70's is a decision area where bears playing for a dip bellow 112.00
69
  • #139,513
  • Mar 7, 2016 4:41am Mar 7, 2016 4:41am
Market participants are this morning focusing on the downgraded economic growth forecast from China over the weekend, with GDP for 2016 now predicted to come in at 6.5% (from 7%). This has put mining and resource stocks under a little pressure, but the underlying commodities, especially crude, remain resilient, leaving current trends still in play.

Meanwhile, expectations are high for the ECB to deliver in a significant way this Thursday, with many expecting a 10-20bps cut to the rate of interest paid on excess bank reserves, together with an increase of EUR 10bn to the size of their monthly asset purchases under the QE program, along with a possible change in the composition/type of assets it is allowed to buy.

On the back of this increased expectation of action from the ECB, Bunds are higher this morning (10-year yield down 3bps on the day), diverging from comparable US Treasurys (yield up 4bps on the day), and EURUSD marginally weaker.

Overall, a relatively quiet start to the week.
  • #139,514
  • Mar 7, 2016 4:44am Mar 7, 2016 4:44am
Quoting sisse
Watch-out for OIL @33.7x [check].... It only needs a small sparkle to take the highs (macro stops sitting on the top of handle) for a +10% [check] rally until the FED... sisse
OIL completing main target @ $36.7x to the 'tick' in the morning with a flawless trade for those riding from 32.7x or from the break. Raging bulls look set to continue with any push from ECB QE (via equities).

European Equities starting to struggle at the highs and in desperate need of a hand to push higher. More importantly for this week, short term Equities and EZ related Bonds (shout at @USBEAR) clearing the map for the ECB play while GOLD sitting in the launching platform for the leg.

Markets aligning for a double whammy (dep. rate cut and +QE) while Euro trading air at these levels aligning for a MAJOR mover and shaker later this week....

Tracking DAX and Equities tripping (970x.x --> 948x.x) in the following sessions before the final ECB counting... not much to do on the rest of the board so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,515
  • Mar 7, 2016 10:25am Mar 7, 2016 10:25am
Oil unstoppable reaching 37.4x target in a rather quick fashion. + 40% rally since February but we'll need a hand from somewhere else to continue higher as we are reaching last FA breakout levels.

Quoting sisse
Key closing US session on the making. A major clear out in OIL from the Saudis, Venezuela, Russian announcement with China....update short term outlook in OIL from Neutral to Buy ...
Flat in Oil and updating short term outlook in OIL from early FEB from Buy to Neutral until further data ....

On the rest of the board nothing new with equities holding the highs and Euro treading water.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,516
  • Mar 8, 2016 2:35am Mar 8, 2016 2:35am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} collected @ 165,10 waiting for June series next week
Looks like your patience is paying off with that 7am spike down to 162.xx!
  • #139,517
  • Mar 8, 2016 2:38am Mar 8, 2016 2:38am
Quoting bullionman
{quote} Looks like your patience is paying off with that 7am spike down to 162.xx!
not yet, its the future switch to the June series
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,518
  • Mar 8, 2016 4:46am Mar 8, 2016 4:46am
Crude oil is reluctant to surrender its recent massive gains, in response to terrible trade data from China, in which exports fell by a quarter in February. Other commodities have suffered more this morning relative to crude, but so far nothing significant when compared to the huge price rises seen in recent sessions. Markets seem to be happy to go along with the narrative of a big fiscal stimulus from China will ensure stronger demand for commodities (see iron ore's meteoric rise yesterday).

Kuwait made interesting comments, which pours some cold water on market hopes of an effective production freeze being put in place, saying they will not participate unless all OPEC and non-OPEC members, namely Iran, also acquiesce to production limits. For the time being at least, given the strength of the rally in crude, the market is not focusing on the fundamental outlook.

The fundamental picture is still dire, with a record oversupply glut. There is also the real possibility that a surge further into the $40-$50 range will see shale producers lock in the higher prices and start ramping up production. And having the price over $40 removes the fiscal urgency for national producers to co-operate with geopolitical and sectarian rivals.

From being very bullish on crude last week, given the building pressure for a significant breakout, I now move to neutral.

EURUSD set in 1.0810 - 1.1050 trading range.
  • #139,519
  • Edited 9:40am Mar 8, 2016 8:59am | Edited 9:40am
It seems there is absolutely nothing to see in EU until ECB. This short term corrective leg ran into resistence but keeps slowly getting high. Im out of E/U these days. Would not be suprised if we sit by 1,108x for ECB to determine whats next.

Since the trading is boring these days so just my rough scenarios if we sit by 1,108x:

1. no move from ecb and we back to 1,128x.
2. only - IR but no + QE: knee jerk reaction down and up above 1,108x we go to wait for FED.
3. - (-IR) + (+QE) and down we go = and we may not see lvl above 1,108x for long time unless FED would completely got crazy.

=)

Best scnario would be no action from ECB and hawkish FED - so we can load mid term on previous top - not probable though.
Middle difficulty scenarion and I gues most probably - half action from ECB - bumpy ride up for FED next week after the initial strong reaction this week - and depending on FED well see if the upside ends quickly /more hawkish FED not allowing extension/ or more choppy /with neutral FED allowing extension of the ECB leg/ - still possible to load mid term but not so easily.
Most difficult to play: ECB going full in - would not wanna be catching that
  • #139,520
  • Mar 8, 2016 9:36am Mar 8, 2016 9:36am
BTW imarich:

the time may be coming for us on G/U. At least technically the short term leg seems to be done with this 50% retrace to 1,428. Perfectly touched the lvl 1,428 sisse mentioned!! Fundamentally there seems to be no reason to move further up for an extension. The question as always is timing: Im not sure if ECB can have any impact here somehow but except for ECB there are no important events on GBP or USD side this week so I expect it to remain range bound between 1,428x-1,413x and to stay there during the beginning of next week - Im considering to fade the price if we get to 1,428x again to position on top of the range for FED and BoE as those could be doublewhammy if we get hawkish FED + dovish BoE.

Wonder what sisse thinks about my plan
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