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  • #139,481
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:28am Mar 4, 2016 9:28am
It could be due to wages-earnings; but, unemployment is at 8 yr LOW and Non-farm payrolls consistent of economy growing with labor market expanding. I would rather be employed than not even if wages were less. More money being earned is more money being spent to give US a healthy economy. Further, US still is doing better than its peers in Manufacturing sector.

I was very surprised with this move today; and chester123, I agree I should have stayed away. I tried to get cheap seats and got lawn seats.....sigh....
  • #139,482
  • Edited 9:48am Mar 4, 2016 9:31am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting roobii
{quote} i think it has to do with the drop in hourly wage earnings.... hasn't dropped since 2014
I thought that too... but on the other hand we can arhument that:

a) the drop is very marginal, i.e. one print does not indicate any trend change
b) all the other components of the report were solid (even NFP revisions were very positive)
c) the inflation is ticking up - the transmitter channel between employment =) wages =) inflation seems to work I guess.

Maybe equities are more likely to be the cause of the flow. But who knows

P.S.: here is some opinion. No idea if that guy is right, though

http://www.businessinsider.com/ian-s...-report-2016-3
  • #139,483
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:33am Mar 4, 2016 9:33am
Bought at near 083xx minimum target higher high ... Extension .20xx ... But size is medium ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,484
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:51am Mar 4, 2016 9:51am
Quoting roobii
{quote} i think it has to do with the drop in hourly wage earnings.... hasn't dropped since 2014
I read it's merely because of a calendar quirk But for Shepherdson, this "miss" on wages is merely a calendar quirk that, if you know what to look for, was entirely expected and will be corrected in coming months."Don't be taken in by the dip in hourly earnings," Shepherdson wrote in an email on Friday."It just continues a very consistent pattern of undershooting in months when the 15th — payday for people paid semi-monthly — falls after the employment survey week. The same thing will happen in March, but then there'll be a huge rebound, putting wage growth year-over-year at new highs. January's 0.5% month-over-month jump was the response to the same calendar quirk depressing December wages, when the print was 0.0%."Or as Shepherdson simply put, "In one line: The wage number is wrong, payrolls are strong."
  • #139,485
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:53am Mar 4, 2016 9:53am
I played a game i have developed for news flows and was up 60 pips...got greedy and should have let some go for profit @.091x but instead stopped out BE+5. Now I have Supply Zones @ .102x and .105x respectively for today. In a protected trade at .1018 on a confirmation of direction entry shooting for bottom of reange in the next few sessions or get stopped out BE +1. Need to study TA a LOT more over weekend. Thanks and GL to all!! :-)

edit: bottom of range = .0900 1st target
  • #139,486
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:57am Mar 4, 2016 9:57am
euro vs spx500 (yellow line is Gold).

algos and cheap money making everything highly correlated these days.
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  • #139,487
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:09am Mar 4, 2016 10:09am
S&P Future h6 hitted 2000 again, can it grow higher today?
  • #139,488
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:49am Mar 4, 2016 10:49am
sisse states, "...My 2 cents, check DOLLAR holding as it will give the heads up if Sterling is going to fail to take back the break out point ...."

I believe holding 97.20 area? It appears it held for the LONDON close (11:30 NY time, unless this is wrong and its 12pm NY time) and not sure about NY close on it. GBP continues to make new highs. At the .4346 area. I had a 50% fib (.04248) there.

EU is just....EU......I can't figure it out. I expected LOWS today and not higher highs. But, according to sisse's TA basic on the Zig Zag in a Downtrend is Pump (.102X) then FADE the high (.1020) then SELL the TOP (.1048)????

As stated earlier, I got the lawn seats......again....BAD TIMING.....I got to get this TIMING thing fixed! I would think we would get some profit taking before the NY close which might help me get a glimpse of the stage...........
  • #139,489
  • Mar 4, 2016 11:10am Mar 4, 2016 11:10am
Europe going home with European Equities in a strong close and in wait of US to give the final push. OIL with a very decent rally for the first attempt to break up and still with a chance today for a clean sweep.

On the rest of the board, GOLD, DOLLAR and EURO constrained on the range after the sharp initial zizgag moves on the news flows...

Still a open chance for a very strong US closing session later to kill the moves until ECB.

Not much to do here except let it play out so same levels, same trades, same all across the board.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,490
  • Mar 4, 2016 11:17am Mar 4, 2016 11:17am
Quoting roobii
{quote} i think it has to do with the drop in hourly wage earnings.... hasn't dropped since 2014
Don't sweat it too much. Employment wasn't in play for today.... rates are.

If you dig into micro details of the report, the actual numbers as a whole are positive not as positive as the headline in NFP because as you mention wages. However, those are super macro technicalities that ARE NOT in play for today.

The employment trend and the correlated numbers are too strong to even consider any statistic implication on those micro details worst have an instant market reaction....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,491
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:22pm Mar 4, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Don't sweat it too much. Employment wasn't in play for today.... rates are. If you dig into micro details of the report, the actual numbers as a whole are positive not as positive as the headline in NFP because as you mention wages. However, those are super macro technicalities that ARE NOT in play for today. The employment trend and the correlated numbers are too strong to even consider any statistic implication on those micro details worst have an instant market reaction.... sisse
thanx for the insight
  • #139,492
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:46pm Mar 4, 2016 12:46pm
Quoting chester123
.... I kind of cannot even figure out where it should go next. is it zig zig follow by the thing described in your post (1,108x) or should it continue to lows with zig-zag in middle? I mean you say its choose your posion time after the zig-zag and I still dont get to even what side its desperation which makes u laugh
Lets go quickly to the very basics before discussing further details.

--> Two basic corrections in a trend whatever the TF and instrument: A direct or a zigzag move.

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--> One basic principle sell higher or buy lower, squeezing the 'late comers' or the 'early riders' in the process. This is a random chart example:

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--> A Zigzag usually plays out on profit taking after a strong move before. More importantly when Expectations of a major event that is about to happen that could trigger a continuation with the trend...smart money position higher/lower against the crowd before making price appear to be reversing against the main trend ('pump and dump' or whatever other name you have heard in these boards but never knew in practice a real live case)....

I hope it helps ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,493
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:53pm Mar 4, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Lets go quickly to the very basics before discussing further details. --> Two basic corrections in a trend whatever the TF and instrument: A direct or a zigzag move. {image} --> One basic principle sell higher or buy lower, squeezing the 'late comers' or the 'early riders' in the process. This is a random chart example: {image} --> A Zigzag usually plays out on profit taking after a strong move before. More importantly when Expectations of a major event that is about to happen that could trigger a continuation with the trend...smart money...
Thanks a lot Sisse! At least I learnt something today even I didn't make money
  • #139,494
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:57pm Mar 4, 2016 12:57pm
Quoting rioMario
{quote} ok. I'll take 1.092 ahead of ISM. Closing half pos and trailing stop at 1.0875.
ok. closing the whole lot ar 1.099 very nice ride beyond expectation.

looking for shorts in Gold loosing 1260 for the close to play the short leg => 1190

Have a nice we everyone.
  • #139,495
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:17pm Mar 4, 2016 1:17pm
sisse,

Thanks for explaining this in more detail and taking time to helps us with Basic TA.

In your example your (B) is lower than the MOVE (...) but, it is higher than (2) as you show in your example. I did an example on small TF to show the move as it Zigged and Zagged. I played the DIRECT move and got the Lawn Seats. I was looking at the bounce from the breech of .0910 to enter and like I said, Lawn seats again. I am not sure how I could have played it differently other than waiting; but, may missed the opportunity.

My question is if its still valid and this kind of move for continuation if the (B) is above the beginning of the move Labeled (...)

I am still looking for .0800 handle to be tested before ECB for a test of .0730. Nothing has changed in US DATA-FA and TA with a PREVIOUS MONTHLY CLOSE below the .097X level again
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  • #139,496
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:35pm Mar 4, 2016 1:35pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Lets go quickly to the very basics before discussing further details. --> Two basic corrections in a trend whatever the TF and instrument: A direct or a zigzag move. {image} --> One basic principle sell higher or buy lower, squeezing the 'late comers' or the 'early riders' in the process. This is a random chart example: {image} --> A Zigzag usually plays out on profit taking after a strong move before. More importantly when Expectations of a major event that is about to happen that could trigger a continuation with the trend...smart money...
My personal favorite
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  • #139,497
  • Edited 2:30pm Mar 4, 2016 2:15pm | Edited 2:30pm
Very decent rally on the break in OIL but we fell short of completing the leg. Equities starting to look tired for the close and "good news is not that good news" [in play] via hikes is starting to charge is toll on sentiment.

Tracking 1998.xx for the close in S&P, while irrelevant roll in the Euro at these levels...

sisse

Quoting IMARICH1
s In your example your (B) is lower than the MOVE (...) but, it is higher than (2) as you show in your example. My question is if its still valid and this kind of move for continuation if the (B) is above the beginning of the move Labeled (...) ....
"(B) is lower than the MOVE (...) but, it is higher than (2)" ...

Thats the whole point of the explanation for a zigzag!!! ...read again "...position higher/lower against the crowd before making price appear to be reversing against the main trend"

" I did an example on small TF to show the move as it Zigged and Zagged..."

Your example is everything but a downtrend and the trade we are talking about.

You are choosing a M5 / micro intraday chart, that chart is showing a strong uptrend before. There is a textbook zigzag but to the other side !!! on the test 1.091x and bounce ....Your numbers are upside down ....you are trying to chart fit the swing in play in a micro chart ...

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" (B) is above the beginning of the move Labeled (...)"

????

It doesn't make any sense. We are talking about continuation in a trend ... if it goes beyond the starting point you are upside down ...there is no trend in that direction...

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} My personal favourite {image}
Don't disagree with that one yet ...not until ECB/FED is in play FA wise and 1.073x is holding TA wise...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,498
  • Edited 2:42pm Mar 4, 2016 2:31pm | Edited 2:42pm
sisse,

I understand your example. I get the point of the zig and zag. You stated we could use any TF and I was using the micro TF to chart the MOVE....it started at .0980. I only saw the DIRECT PLAY and not the ZIG ZAG. I should have watched for a close on HIGHER TIME FRAME under the .0910 if I am learning anything......it would have allowed me to get a better position. I am seeing it is almost better to wait until NY 10am-10:15am to enter a trade as this is when they will reverse things if they are going to do it.

Nevertheless, I get your point; However, I am not sure how you would really see the ZIG and ZAG for this kind of move on a Longer Time Frame. I saw the bounce from .0910 and looked for the top of the bounce(Direct Play) to go LOWER with the Strong OVERSHOOT In Non-Farm.

I show my ignorance too much on here......this chart shows your example and now I see it.....sorry for the brain cells not firing......
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1 HOUR CHART

Learning....or maybe not.....
Thanks for all your input this week!
  • #139,499
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:37pm Mar 4, 2016 2:37pm
Quoting sisse
Equities starting to look tired for the close and "good news is not that good news" [in play] via hikes is starting to charge is toll on sentiment
Beware the Ides of March!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ides_of_March
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,500
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:48pm Mar 4, 2016 2:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Beware the Ides of March! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ides_of_March
Et Tu Crudus!
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