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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #17,841
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:14am Mar 4, 2016 8:14am
Quoting djbenny1
I think the most important thing I learned today is not to trade Non-Farm.
well, u know trading is like a double edged sword. it cuts both ways. But, if you do your homework and are good in calculating losses and profits, and not too greedy, things should be fine.
  • #17,842
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:21am Mar 4, 2016 8:21am
Quoting Mbj
For the n'th time. Same situations. {image}
i guess u're right. but my bias is always with the last thing that happens, and with long term order flow of course.
So, we had NSL...ok, maybe look for short (against long term order flow in our case). No, NSH. OK again. Let's look for longs. No, NSL. OK then... change bias for short. But in the end price cannot make always NSL and NSH and NSL subsequently. If price has to go from point A to B, it will by making NSH and HL in an uptrend, or NSL and LH in a downtrend.
it's as simple as that. and Damian spotted the harmonics and ratios by which price moves from a place to another.

btw, i think we'll see a test of the 61.8% retrace of the last swing. around 1.0950.
  • #17,843
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:24am Mar 4, 2016 8:24am
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  • #17,844
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:24am Mar 4, 2016 8:24am
Quote
But in the end price cannot make always NSL and NSH and NSL subsequently.

Good reminder!!
  • #17,845
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:29am Mar 4, 2016 8:29am
Quoting Timwelch
Hang in there beepbop! Drawdowns can be a good test of character and fortitude. You're mindset and outlook is great as you're looking into the future and have not lost confidence in the system itself. I'm at a break even for the week currently in one of my accounts, and that's ok. I actually had about 25 break even trades this week, which for me is incredibly insane. It's insane because before MR. Pips training, those would have all been losses! Now that I see the market clearly, I am entering in such a good spot that if it goes against me, I'm...
Thank you for the encouragement! I believe you are right. One thing I'm considering is starting next week posting my live trades here. I haven't wanted to do that much up till now because I thought feeling watched would make me nervous and negatively effect my trading! But really it might turn out the other way and make me more accountable to taking only good trades and managing them reasonably. Plus feedback can help.
  • #17,846
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:31am Mar 4, 2016 8:31am
this seems like a good place to enter, but not so sure...
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  • #17,847
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:34am Mar 4, 2016 8:34am
ok, i'm in but with half the position size and TP at the NSH. or maybe 78% of that swing. let's see
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  • #17,848
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:38am Mar 4, 2016 8:38am
placed my SL at BE. market is at 50% of the last swing down. It should go further up..but u never know what fat cats are thinking...

securd +9pips. i hope it doesnt come and take me out as it made a 30 pip move in my favor. TP is at 127% extension. maybe it's unreasonable, so when or if price tests that NSH i might tight my SL.
  • #17,849
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:46am Mar 4, 2016 8:46am
update trade nr.2. I'm trailing my SL after each little swing. Don't trust this market condition, that's why. so...
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  • #17,850
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:48am Mar 4, 2016 8:48am
it worries me that the candles start to become weaker and weaker in volume as we approach NSH. now I see a rotation in price...not sure if price will retrace to the downside or not. nevertheless, not moving my SL.
  • #17,851
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:53am Mar 4, 2016 8:53am
locked in 29 pips. and taken out. had moved it too soon and didnt calculate a complex PB in short term order flow. anyway. bias is still to the upside.
  • #17,852
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:56am Mar 4, 2016 8:56am
Quoting ujku80
locked in 29 pips. and taken out. had moved it too soon and didnt calculate a complex PB in short term order flow. anyway. bias is still to the upside.
Good job
  • #17,853
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:58am Mar 4, 2016 8:58am
that was the last trade for today. I got really lucky with the first one that my SL wasn't hit before my TP. But the last one was exactly according to Damian lessons. My mistake was to keep SL too tight....I really have to improve in this area as I'm backfiring myself...it's a shame that such good trades end so poorly in terms of result. but that's me and my issues i have (fear and greed). So, see you on monday guys.

Happy trading and good luck
  • #17,854
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:59am Mar 4, 2016 8:59am
Quoting Harmonic1976
{quote} Good job
thanks mate. cheers
  • #17,855
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:43am Mar 4, 2016 9:43am
Quoting ujku80
update trade nr.2. I'm trailing my SL after each little swing. Don't trust this market condition, that's why. so... {image}
Finally some green
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  • #17,856
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:47am Mar 4, 2016 9:47am
Quoting ujku80
{quote} well, u know trading is like a double edged sword. it cuts both ways. But, if you do your homework and are good in calculating losses and profits, and not too greedy, things should be fine.
Sure, price ultimately picked up where it left off (I had an EURUSD long open before Non Farm) but you'd need to be mad to leave a trade open ​in this kind of environment without at least a very tight SL. Even then, with the kind of volume and volatility we had, you'd very likely experience some slippage and certainly would get stopped out if your SL was any way reasonable.

Just isn't worth the risk. The R/R is a complete guess in the circumstances. I got stopped out at BE moments after the release. Same on GBPUSD.
  • #17,857
  • Edited 10:16am Mar 4, 2016 9:56am | Edited 10:16am
Working on my first set of rules of engagement based on experiences so far. I haven't back tested any of it but I've noticed that swings do happen at these 3 main levels and if price goes at or beyond the .786 (deep correction)... it's not likely to form a NSH even though that's the expectation.

Most of the time I have been trading the 2min, 5min, or 233T charts and have limited my trading pairs to EURUSD/AUDUSD/USDJPY and I focus on whichever ones show stronger NSH or NSL happening.

I like scaling into a position... The reason I want in at the .382 is that many times strong moves take off from here. This resolves the "fear of missing out" or wanting to chase a move that moves from here quickly. Price typically bounces off of the .5 retracement a lot from charts I've looked at and studied. If price takes off from here, 2/3 of the position has been filled and I can be happy with that.

And the .618 sets up a better wholesale price (and aggressive C zone). Going in at the .618 helps average in the "being wrong" at the .318 level and gives a much better reward should the NSH expectation take place.

But if price goes beyond the 78.6, it's likely the expectation is going to fail so try to exit gracefully flat at the .5 extension.

TP1 will only happen if 2-3 entries are met. If only the .38 entry is met, it will be moved to break even at the structure and trailed. TP1 puts some money in the bank and lets the other entrie(s) ride the wave up should the market make a move in the expected direction.

Working on getting these trading rules down pat to remove emotion out of the picture as much as possible.

Feedback welcome!
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  • #17,858
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:21am Mar 4, 2016 10:21am
for harmonic pattern completion, what confluence are important to consider? should it be confluence of many patterns? like Bat, and gartley and ABCD in one setup?
  • #17,859
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:23am Mar 4, 2016 10:23am
Quoting hovedguy
{quote} Finally some green {image}
out
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  • #17,860
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:54am Mar 4, 2016 10:54am
Quoting Harmonic1976
Working on my first set of rules of engagement based on experiences so far. I haven't back tested any of it but I've noticed that swings do happen at these 3 main levels and if price goes at or beyond the .786 (deep correction)... it's not likely to form a NSH even though that's the expectation. Most of the time I have been trading the 2min, 5min, or 233T charts and have limited my trading pairs to EURUSD/AUDUSD/USDJPY and I focus on whichever ones show stronger NSH or NSL happening. I like scaling into a position... The reason I want in at the...
Nifty system, harmonic! It's interesting to see how you are taking Mr. Pip's principles and making something of your own. Thanks for sharing. Let us know how it works out for you!
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