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AUDUSD Trading Pit

  • #281
  • Edited 8:32am Mar 4, 2016 8:17am | Edited 8:32am
I see many people are short, as I...is this NFP weird action an exhaustion move to flush out the shorts?
Just an honest question...no idea personally.
Money is but a tool.
  • #282
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:25am Mar 4, 2016 8:25am
7520 tonight perhaps any shorts below are suicide I reckon. Kinda said see ya at 75 two weeks ago. See what happens but that's where I'd go south too.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #283
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:24am Mar 4, 2016 9:24am
Quoting Jag37
I see many people are short, as I...is this NFP weird action an exhaustion move to flush out the shorts? Just an honest question...no idea personally.
the problem with answering your question is nobody really knows nothing
people will tell you just to follow the trend. well, the question is which trend? 1 minute trend or weekly trend?
the confusion among traders i find is they look in their 5 minute charts and expect weekly returns, others make trading decisions on weekly charts and put sl or tp based on 5 minute chart.
so anybody who has been short term swing trading, there was no reason to short first of all. because all smaller tfs ups to 4 hr chart were up. however people who are trading larger tfs like weekly, then for them this all is still a bounce (a strong one, i must say )
my personal opinion is that traders should have solid plan before taking any positions taking into consideration what their expectations are and how they will react to worst case scenarios.
the trick is that nobody knows the future and anything can happen anytime. this is a game/war of probabilities, nothing more, nothing less.
trade safe
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As Above, So Below
  • #284
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:09am Mar 4, 2016 10:09am


Quoting tashkent
{quote} the problem with answering your question is nobody really knows nothing people will tell you just to follow the trend. well, the question is which trend? ...i must say ) my personal opinion is that traders should have solid plan before taking any positions taking into consideration what their expectations are and how they will react to worst case scenarios. the trick is that nobody knows the future and anything can happen anytime. this is a game/war of probabilities, nothing more, nothing less. trade safe {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #285
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:12pm Mar 4, 2016 12:12pm
I do believe this is market has a extreme reaction to the news. I am planning to sell londons open next week once everyone realizes they overshot on the news next week
  • #286
  • Mar 4, 2016 12:32pm Mar 4, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting iwillwait
I do believe this is market has a extreme reaction to the news. I am planning to sell londons open next week once everyone realizes they overshot on the news next week
i am not sure if news is behind all this. us data was neutral at minimum. very good nfp but missed the hourly earning expectation by 0.1%. now it will take for bear lots of effort to stop this run and then turn around.
As Above, So Below
  • #287
  • Mar 4, 2016 2:26pm Mar 4, 2016 2:26pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} the problem with answering your question is nobody really knows nothing people will tell you just to follow the trend. well, the question is which trend? 1 minute trend or weekly trend? the confusion among traders i find is they look in their 5 minute charts and expect weekly returns, others make trading decisions on weekly charts and put sl or tp based on 5 minute chart. so anybody who has been short term swing trading, there was no reason to short first of all. because all smaller tfs ups to 4 hr chart were up. however people who are...
Well said (except the first line)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #288
  • Mar 4, 2016 3:07pm Mar 4, 2016 3:07pm
I just found your forum today, and read your posts. I think appreciate your sharing. Great comment, Tashkent,,,,i believe you are right.

I will tell you that I just started trading forex, six months ago. I'm a newbie, but, I do have investing, and financial planning experience.
I was fortunate to meet someone, who taught me how to trade forex, an din particular, taught me a cool hedge technique. I will share this with you.

I am currently short AUD, as well as many of you. I didn't hedge,,,a mstake I have made a few times....and I have been making increased deposits, to ensure I don't bust my account. Twice ive got myself into this mess...I am totally mad at myself.

So, this is my plan...clean up my mess, and when I'm bak to square one again...this is my new trading plan:

I am only going to trade 10% of my total capital. My goal is to earn .01 on 20 pips. I will do this twice per day. I will hedge.
so, I have 20,000 in capital. So I am only going to trade, based on 10% of that, which is $2000. That leave $18000, as cushion, because I have done two things wrong in my short trading career...1. forgetting to place a hedge, 2. overleveraging, and 3. Staying married to a losing trade.

This is the hedge technique, that I was taught, and it is a good strategy:

first order: buy, lot size .10 at price .7460 stop loss 40 pips below (.7420), take profit, 20 pips above (.7480)
hedge: sell, lot size 3 x the first order (.30)
at price .20 below buy price (.7460 - .20 = .7440). stop loss price + 40 pips above (.7480) take profit at price + 20pips (.7420 + .20= .7480)
if market does down, and hedge is filled, place a hedge on that order too...
2nd hedge: buy, lot size, 2 x second hedge (.60) at same buy price, stop limit, and take profit prices

look at the first order and the hedge....if all went well, your buy order would lose $40 but your hedge would gain $60. The difference, is a profit of $20, which was your goal to begin with.

the key is to keep a hedge, on each order that fills and what will happen is that your stop loss will trigger the hedge take profit, to fill at the same time.

hope this makes sense, and hope to learn, share, and make money, with all of you. Have a great weekend, and see you on Sunday night.
  • #289
  • Mar 4, 2016 3:14pm Mar 4, 2016 3:14pm
correction:

This is the hedge technique: 20 / 40 / 20

first order: buy, lot size .10 at price .7460
stop loss 40 pips below (.7420),
take profit, 20 pips above (.7480)

hedge: sell, lot size 3 x the first order (.30) at price .20 below buy price (.7460 - .20 = .7440).
stop loss price + 40 pips above (.7480)
take profit at price + 20pips (.7440 + .20= .7420)

if market does down, and hedge is filled, place a hedge on that order too...
2nd hedge: buy, lot size, 2 x second hedge (.60) at same buy price, stop limit, and take profit prices
look at order, plus first hedge. you would have made $20 profit. The first order would lose $40. the hedge would gain $60.
the stop loss and take profit prices, are same and would fill and close out at same time.
  • #290
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:15pm Mar 4, 2016 5:15pm
This move was so exhausted, they'll fade it on Sunday. Back to mid 0.73 range. I'm short 0.7436
  • #291
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:43pm Mar 4, 2016 5:43pm
Quoting Nat1173
correction: This is the hedge technique: 20 / 40 / 20 first order: buy, lot size .10 at price .7460 stop loss 40 pips below (.7420), take profit, 20 pips above (.7480) hedge: sell, lot size 3 x the first order (.30) at price .20 below buy price (.7460 - .20 = .7440). stop loss price + 40 pips above (.7480) take profit at price + 20pips (.7440 + .20= .7420) if market does down, and hedge is filled, place a hedge on that order too... 2nd hedge: buy, lot size, 2 x second hedge (.60) at same buy price, stop limit, and take profit prices look at order,...
Forgive my ignorance. What to do if after the first hedge (.7440) is filled, the market subsequently retraces above the tp (.7480) of the first buy?
  • #292
  • Mar 4, 2016 6:59pm Mar 4, 2016 6:59pm
Quoting BigBird
{quote} Forgive my ignorance. What to do if after the first hedge (.7440) is filled, the market subsequently retraces above the tp (.7480) of the first buy?
Very valid question I am interested too in the answer
  • #293
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:17pm Mar 4, 2016 7:17pm
Nothing to forgive...this takes a bit to understand, but once you see it, it's so cool.

to answer:

if your hedge order fills, then you now have to hedge this order.
you do this by placing the same order as your first order...the buy. at the same stop loss, and take profit. the only thing different, is the lot size, which will be two times your hedge lot size.

you keep repeating these hedges, as orders get filled.

the only thing that changes, is the lot sizes...., 01, 03, then dble....06, 1.2, 2.4
buy, sell, buy, sell
same buy info and same sell info. once orders reach target take price or stop loss, and are closed out, you will have one remaining hedge order still open. You have to cancel this....it is not longer needed, as you reached your goal. Here is what it will look like: notice the stop loss and take profit prices are same.
buy .01 .7460 stop loss .7420 take profit .7480
sell 03 .7440 .7480 .7420
buy .06 .7460 .7420 .7480
sell 1.20 .7440 .7480 .7420

so, if you place he first order, and market goes against you, it will reach and fill the second order. if market goes against this,,,it will fill third order. if all these three close, you will have your net profit, and you must cancel the fourth order...you don't want to fill this.
  • #294
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:05pm Mar 4, 2016 8:05pm
Quoting Nat1173
Nothing to forgive...this takes a bit to understand, but once you see it, it's so cool. to answer: if your hedge order fills, then you now have to hedge this order. you do this by placing the same order as your first order...the buy. at the same stop loss, and take profit. the only thing different, is the lot size, which will be two times your hedge lot size. you keep repeating these hedges, as orders get filled. the only thing that changes, is the lot sizes...., 01, 03, then dble....06, 1.2, 2.4 buy, sell, buy, sell same buy info and same sell...
New lesson for me about hedging position. Thanks..
  • #295
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:16pm Mar 4, 2016 8:16pm
It is my pleasure to share, and help each other profit.
  • #296
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:15pm Mar 4, 2016 10:15pm
Quoting Nat1173
correction: This is the hedge technique: 20 / 40 / 20 first order: buy, lot size .10 at price .7460 stop loss 40 pips below (.7420), take profit, 20 pips above (.7480) hedge: sell, lot size 3 x the first order (.30) at price .20 below buy price (.7460 - .20 = .7440). stop loss price + 40 pips above (.7480) take profit at price + 20pips (.7440 + .20= .7420) if market does down, and hedge is filled, place a hedge on that order too... 2nd hedge: buy, lot size, 2 x second hedge (.60) at same buy price, stop limit, and take profit prices look at order,...
Martingale variation. It will work untill it doesn't and blow your account.
  • #297
  • Edited Mar 5, 2016 2:00am Mar 4, 2016 10:42pm | Edited Mar 5, 2016 2:00am
Quoting Nat1173
Nothing to forgive...this takes a bit to understand, but once you see it, it's so cool. to answer: if your hedge order fills, then you now have to hedge this order. you do this by placing the same order as your first order...the buy. at the same stop loss, and take profit. the only thing different, is the lot size, which will be two times your hedge lot size. you keep repeating these hedges, as orders get filled. the only thing that changes, is the lot sizes...., 01, 03, then dble....06, 1.2, 2.4 buy, sell, buy, sell same buy info and same sell...
I see. Just repeatedly double the bet until it turns in your favor. But I think its more practical if you carry that out on a BIG/SMALL casino table. At least no un-executed order needs to be cancelled when you succeed in hitting the target. Anyway, thanks for sharing this hedging lesson.
  • #298
  • Mar 5, 2016 6:43am Mar 5, 2016 6:43am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} actually i am pretty scared looking at the daily and weekly when started taking shorts, i was taking into consideration worst possible scenarios, which are happening. so i can hold these shorts until couple of hundred pips more but if we go higher 74, i will start getting out of lower positions. current average position is 7355
Hey TK when you wrote this I was feeling like the position i was holding was going to bite me too. The price was holding very steadily on the old highs right around .7385 just prior to the NFP. In hindsight (always better than foresight) it was just holding for the news and looking for an excuse to break higher. I was holding and expecting the good US news to continue it's recent pattern, thus sending Aussie backwards. But as PA has pointed out repeatedly, the Aussie has been shrugging off bad news, so the basically benign news (except for infinitesimal reduction in wage growth) was no barrier for further rises. The strength the Aussie still had after it's run up, to hold at previous highs was an alarm bell but I ignored it. By doing so, I also put myself in a worse position, because I expected the possibility of short term spikes in either direction when the news came out, so I raised my SL to .7425, telling myself that if that didn't get hit, and the Aussie rose dangerously, I could close trade manually lower than my SL. But when price spiked erratically in both directions, as most pairs did, I told myself it might still reverse sharply off of highs, effectively having formed a triple top and set off a steep downward move, which of course was the strategy I employed to begin with by selling at previous highs. So i ended up getting stopped out, and at a higher level than I would have if I had not made the mistake of holding through NFP. Lesson paid for. No more holding trades through NFP unless it's a long term position with a few hundred pips cushion....Now for future of the AUD/USD....It closed the day and the week only .00008 off it's high after that spectacular run!!! That seems to indicate ongoing strength. No other pair I've looked at has achieved a comparable close after all that wild volatility related to NFP. But have you looked at oil? It has closed only 1.8 pips off daily and weekly highs going back to Jan 4th, after a 9 day run without a lower close. Is the strength in the Aussie possibly predicting higher commodity prices? It's now broken out (al be it for only one day so far) of the sideways ranging pattern it dropped down to following the commodity sell off. Somewhere around an hour after NFP I realized the run wasn't over yet, and i went long at .7416. Not the best price, but I decided I had to get back in before catching a couple of hours sleep before work. Just for fun, check what gold did on NFP news on the one HR TF. It dropped $15 then closed back up $15. Cheers Mate
  • #299
  • Mar 5, 2016 10:25am Mar 5, 2016 10:25am
7460 key R if broken 7633 next huge R
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #300
  • Mar 5, 2016 3:06pm Mar 5, 2016 3:06pm
Buy on pullbacks.
The Trend Is Your Friend
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