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More simple is impossible

  • #5,681
  • Mar 2, 2016 12:55pm Mar 2, 2016 12:55pm
Dee,
This chart is very representative. I see your bias was long, and you were expecting a bounce at the upper blue line, which was a resistance from previous days.
Then you saw a small 123 pattern close to that area, with both indicators confirming short, so you took the shot. I also see from other charts from you, that some times you wait for 123, and some other you go direct, no matter is a countertrend.

My only real question is in your annotations in the indicators. I don't know how to read and interpret "what happened here" and "what's this". Can you please clarify what you see in those small oscilations?

By the way, not to cause pitty, today I've blown my account. Need to rethink on a way to determine my trading bias, and when to change bias. What it is true, the MACD changes color, not sure if only in the ongoing candle, or also affects previous one. I may need to wait one more candle to close.

Thanks for your inputs



Quoting dee50
{quote} Chart answers your questions. {image}
  • #5,682
  • Mar 3, 2016 4:04am Mar 3, 2016 4:04am
Quoting cfabian
My only real question is in your annotations in the indicators. I don't know how to read and interpret "what happened here" and "what's this". Can you please clarify what you see in those small oscilations?{quote}
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post8113800

"What's this?" = George C Lane, also applies to the MACD. Continuation Pattern
"What happened here?" = did either oscillator get back up to the 50% or 0.0

I can understand you may not have known about the "What's this" but not to have recognized the "what happened here" indicates to me either that you do not know your tools or your head is some where else. Either way you should not have been trading a live account with an enormous knowledge gap!!
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #5,683
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:06am Mar 3, 2016 6:06am
Dax 30....+10 +17.....talk about range bound
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  • #5,684
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:29am Mar 3, 2016 8:29am
Not a moving market...i have just taken one trade for the day so far. Had to take my dog to the vet. So, its a div at brn, tp at brn9800, also weekly support. I would appreciate a comment if there is some, or a lot i am missing or not seeing. Thank you. Josh

Edit-as i write, went to BE+2.
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  • #5,685
  • Mar 4, 2016 3:34am Mar 4, 2016 3:34am
Cfabian talked about "Bias" so I questioned my self on that and looked to my H1 and now I see things a little differently, my H1 gives me direction, the HA bars and the MA tells me what price has done, my Stoch tells me when the move is exhausted (not all the time though) with the OB and OS colour markings and I look to my Renko for clues of price reversal, Dee said the market leaves clues and if Sherlock was a trader he'd make a fortune. So Renko gives patterns that help find reliable clues.

Renko is getting sweeter, weight training on live account and I'm getting more ambitious.

Yesterday 15.8 pips today 33.2 pips, should master this stuff like dee50, Philipinefx, matomi ,Friska

Should have taken another short to the DP as H1 fib retracement shows so much downside potential, but my muscles have to grow
I have a journey to make so I'd be seeing you guys next week God willing.
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Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #5,686
  • Edited 5:34am Mar 4, 2016 4:31am | Edited 5:34am
Good morning everyone. I opened two trades at a triangle breakout with a divergence, BPC. Both are at BE+2. I am focusing on entries now, but exits are even more of a challenge.

EDIT - I closed the first trade at BRN and weekly S/R as it started to seem it was loosing steam. The second target was yesterdays high short term S/R at BRN.
So, +13,+30.

EDIT2- In retrospect, I should have paid more attention to the Renko 10 and see its a major triangle breakout...my targets would have been higher...but a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. - i will use that to console myself :-)
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  • #5,687
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:01am Mar 4, 2016 8:01am
Hey guys, I'm back. Had some personal stuff to take care of, so I was away for a while.

I switched from DAX to XAUUSD as it scares me less, yet moves enough to give me some pips. Two trades today, pre-NFP, will post them later. Hope all is well.

Regards
Balazs
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #5,688
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:18am Mar 4, 2016 8:18am
DAX30 +19 +20 +5 +20... kind of risky trading during NFP, but new record, 64 pips in 19 minutes, honestly, I like exactly this fast trading, if every day would be like today.

Intrepidpips - I really like your trades man ! I think you are doing exactly what recommend Dee a couple of times - this thread is full of know how, but everyone should create his own style of trading. It is more important than everything else, because you will be able to make serious cash via trading only if you will feel a comfort with your strategy. That is reason why my chart is clean like cocaine, because I feel comfortably with it (not with cocaine, with clean chart....) and btw - Even if I always check all posts everyday I have not too much time to answer but everybody really nice trades guys !

Wish you all nice weekend, cu next week.
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  • #5,689
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:51am Mar 4, 2016 8:51am
Gold (+35, +25, +20)

NFP was interesting, first a freefall, then a badass rally.
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Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #5,690
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:53am Mar 4, 2016 8:53am
GER30 BE+2 ongoing. Just got back and jumped into this trade. H Div at S&R. I initially targeted the 61.8% but there was momentum in the move so I have moved TP down to the BRN 9750. Vamos a ver.

BTW, guys there are some nice looking trades appearing on your charts, well done.

I did not trade yesterday, PA was crap, I eventually scalped a couple yesterday evening just to put some points on the board. Some times it is a winning trade if you stay out of the market, it can save your account.

I just opened an EU chart and it is climbing like a rocket, surprising after NFP, EU and DAX are negatively correlated, some times, but I am going to hold my trade even though we have divergence on both the 5 and 10 pip chart which just kicked price back upto the BRN 9800.
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #5,691
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:57am Mar 4, 2016 8:57am
GER30. Another divergence, that is 2 in a row, but price is still pushing down, I am thinking I might move TP down again round about the 9720 mark, what do you think, am I pushing my luck?
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #5,692
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:18am Mar 4, 2016 9:18am
GER30 +64. 3rd divergence and then a HL, definitely time to kill the trade, looks like I was pushing my luck.
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Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #5,693
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:43am Mar 4, 2016 9:43am
DAX30 +12 +15... the last ones, jesus maybe I am inficated by Dee with that special illness "done for today... wait... the last one... okay another, bye"

Quoting dee50
GER30. Another divergence, that is 2 in a row, but price is still pushing down, I am thinking I might move TP down again round about the 9720 mark, what do you think, am I pushing my luck? {image}
This is how I was looking on it, I think the 9750.0 BRN + that "maybe" S/R and end of cycle could be good exit from your trade Btw last cycle is 50 pips and I know that previous were 55-60 approximately but with shadows it is 57 pips cycle, and even if I am not looking on the cycles so dogmatic, this time it was very accurate.
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  • #5,694
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:08am Mar 4, 2016 10:08am
wow gentlemen, you all rock!!
I took break for news, studying and restyling, trying to identify the size increase points on 50 stoch...
mah.. we'll see! at least it seems to me more colorful!
for now dax +60..
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nescentia necat
  • #5,695
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:21am Mar 4, 2016 10:21am
Quoting Matomi
DAX30 +12 +15... the last ones, jesus maybe I am inficated by Dee with that special illness "done for today... wait... the last one... okay another, bye" {quote} This is how I was looking on it, I think the 9750.0 BRN + that "maybe" S/R and end of cycle could be good exit from your trade Btw last cycle is 50 pips and I know that previous were 55-60 approximately but with shadows it is 57 pips cycle, and even if I am not looking on the cycles so dogmatic, this time it was very accurate. {image} {image}
really nice buddy!!
nescentia necat
  • #5,696
  • Mar 4, 2016 10:35am Mar 4, 2016 10:35am
Quoting Matomi
DAX30 +12 +15... the last ones, jesus maybe I am inficated by Dee with that special illness "done for today... wait... the last one... okay another, bye" {quote} This is how I was looking on it, I think the 9750.0 BRN + that "maybe" S/R and end of cycle could be good exit from your trade Btw last cycle is 50 pips and I know that previous were 55-60 approximately but with shadows it is 57 pips cycle, and even if I am not looking on the cycles so dogmatic, this time it was very accurate. {image} {image}
matomi is a 5p renko that i see with cycle work?
do you have a history of statistics cycle lengths?
may be we can find a cycle behavior before an main inversion, confirmed by divs.. :nerd:slightly_frowning_face:nerd stuff)
nescentia necat
  • #5,697
  • Mar 4, 2016 11:16am Mar 4, 2016 11:16am
Quoting friska
{quote} matomi is a 5p renko that i see with cycle work? do you have a history of statistics cycle lengths? may be we can find a cycle behavior before an main inversion, confirmed by divs.. :nerd:slightly_frowning_face:nerd stuff)
Hi Friska, thank you for positive feedback, and congratulation to your today trades !

I already checked this idea, (I am obessed with bTests), unfortunately cycles are very dynamic stuff and they are changing with every new comming condition in it. So that is reason why I have not got any statistic of cyle lenghts. But I think that is last thing which should bother us - If you have divergence on your indicator, just look on your previous cycles and you will see where approximately can market change direction. It can be 15-25 pips same as 50-60 pips, it depends on market condition

One very important note - sometimes there is 40-45-40 cycles and then 20 pips cycle change direction and whole trend and then if you will zoom out you will find out (or on higher Renko 10) that there is ending higher TF or higher Renko cycle + other signals as BRN, S/R and so on

I think it is possible predict the exact reversal point, I am doing it with 5 pips SL all the time nowdays, but you need still 2-3 signals and you can not get any of them too much dogmatic.
  • #5,698
  • Mar 4, 2016 11:21am Mar 4, 2016 11:21am
Quoting Matomi
{quote} Hi Friska, thank you for positive feedback, and congratulation to your today trades ! I already checked this idea, (I am obessed with bTests), unfortunately cycles are very dynamic stuff and they are changing with every new comming condition in it. So that is reason why I have not got any statistic of cyle lenghts. But I think that is last thing which should bother us - If you have divergence on your indicator, just look on your previous cycles and you will see where approximately can market change direction. It can be...
nice
thx!
nescentia necat
  • #5,699
  • Mar 4, 2016 1:18pm Mar 4, 2016 1:18pm
One more for the night. I got back from my workout and felt invincible, so I decided to nail a bottom in XAUUSD. Jokes aside, it was luck, you should not try this at home

Stop is at R:R +1, I'll let it do it's thing.
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Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #5,700
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:45pm Mar 4, 2016 5:45pm
Quoting BBalazs
One more for the night. I got back from my workout and felt invincible, so I decided to nail a bottom in XAUUSD. Jokes aside, it was luck, you should not try this at home Stop is at R:R +1, I'll let it do it's thing. {image}
BBalazs great to see you back ! Starts be gaily there again


Friska, sorry I did not see your first question - of course it is 5 pips Renko chart, I use only 5 pips and only DAX
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