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  • #139,461
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:38am Mar 4, 2016 7:38am
Quoting sisse
To the other side with a overshoot,Direct play with 1.098x ->[check] 1.091x [check] to take soft lows and complete the short term leg before ECB 1.073x. Both sides tradable as its expected in Neutral outlook.
...simple move to 1.091x tested AS EXPECTED now NY just need to play ball...otherwise week will be over with Europe going home

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,462
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:42am Mar 4, 2016 7:42am
Quoting USD-Bear
Bunds finally turning a bit, like to see it below 164 {image}
collected @ 165,10 waiting for June series next week
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,463
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:51am Mar 4, 2016 7:51am
Quoting IMARICH1
.0730 reasonable today or complete before ECB for this strong overshoot? I have GBP target for .3900--> with ext to .3830 before ECB as well with this strg overshoot due to where GBP went this week.
GU is in very scary areas, bulls failing to translate the current leg up in something more substantial (right now we are testing last break out) and the cliff is very very deep.

Today in morning for the first time in over 2 years, expectation of BOE hiking are even lower that those for the ECB !!! (you can imagine the implications) all thanks to the self-inflicted BREXIT uncertainty.

It's a tricky one to trade wight now as the upcoming mover and shakers are from the Euro and Dollar. My 2 cents, check DOLLAR holding as it will give the heads up if Sterling is going to fail to take back the break out point ....

For today, all with the US. there is not much to do until NY decide to play ball or just a lame soft continuation session...The legs you are talking extend to the ECB play so ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,464
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:59am Mar 4, 2016 7:59am
Thanks sisse!

Really appreciate you taking time to MAP out FA, TA analysis and Actual Flows with News Play. It allows me to look at my homework and see if i am way off or close.

I had .0800 handle being tested today if an overshoot occurred with .073X ext in the cards for FLOOR being tested; but, it is a LEG I probably will not see until a few more sessions as long as Dollar holds onto support and challenges the HIGHS.

I am awaiting the GBP to break up here and start the decent to .3900 with a break extending fast to .3800 with ext to .3650 before gaining some support for a bounce.
  • #139,465
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:01am Mar 4, 2016 8:01am
wtf, is there some news? lol, I prepositioned on the top and its gone
  • #139,466
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:03am Mar 4, 2016 8:03am
Quoting sisse
...Complex zigzag triggered after breaking correlation with Equities yesterday. [check] The play extends much beyond the ECB positioning with 1.102x top, 1.091x as flip zone and 1.083x very feeble floor for the news leg.
Quote
Inline for prolly an uneventful day with equities on driver sit for momentum with zigzag [check] play 1.098x -> 1.091x for a chance to take a test 1.108x before ECB. o the other side with a overshoot, Direct play with 1.098x ->[check] 1.091x [check] to take soft lows and complete the short term leg before ECB 1.073x. Both sides tradable as its expected in Neutral outlook.

And we ended up getting getting the zigzag in the flow 1.098x - > 1.091x -> 1.102x .... right on time for NY open.

Choose your poison time in the EURO... I already choose mine...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,467
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:06am Mar 4, 2016 8:06am
sisse,

I was looking for the OVERSHOOT to go to .0910 (FLIP) to test soft lows in .0825 today so why did we zig zag the opposite way? Did I not understand the flows or data correctly? Complex zig zag is right!

I am with you chester123!
  • #139,468
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:09am Mar 4, 2016 8:09am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, I was looking for the OVERSHOOT to go to .0910 (FLIP) to test soft lows in .0825 today so why did we zig zag the opposite way? Did I not understand the flows or data correctly?

s&p got hammered crossing 2000 cap
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,469
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:10am Mar 4, 2016 8:10am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, I was looking for the OVERSHOOT to go to .0910 (FLIP) to test soft lows in .0825 today so why did we zig zag the opposite way? Did I not understand the flows or data correctly?
Is it the wages? so the report is not so good or the market just decided to play the other side?
  • #139,470
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:13am Mar 4, 2016 8:13am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, I was looking for the OVERSHOOT to go to .0910 (FLIP) to test soft lows in .0825 today so why did we zig zag the opposite way? Did I not understand the flows or data correctly?
The overshoot wasn't enough to take 1,091x for the direct trade so we got the zigzag for the news flow. Whatever you loaded before 1.098x or after the knee jerk reaction with NY ...now is crunching time if you are in ...

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,471
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:14am Mar 4, 2016 8:14am
I can't figure it out as I am learning more and more how more I know less of the market. I may be a passenger for along time and never get my pilot's license.....

Perhaps, it was zig zag to ZIG and ZAG. I still don't see why the LOWS of this week would not be tested with this kind of DATA. It should make US equities drop due to potential rate hike still on the table.
  • #139,472
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:19am Mar 4, 2016 8:19am
Quoting IMARICH1
I can't figure it out as I am learning more and more how more I know less of the market. I may be a passenger for along time and never get my pilot's license..... Perhaps, it was zig zag to ZIG and ZAG. I still don't see why the LOWS of this week would not be tested with this kind of DATA. It should make US equities drop due to potential rate hike still on the table.
are you 100% confident that are not going to be tested ?

You always struggle during the major events. These are bigger flows. Be patient, I think we discussed 1000 times this week. The NFP play itself is 'irrelevant' what is in play is the ECB/FED swing ...and this report will provide a good place to position... let it play out ...don't get stuck on the knee jerk reaction ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,473
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:20am Mar 4, 2016 8:20am
sisse, but what I do not get.... the zig-zag was an option followed by run up for ECB (ny or next week). But what is it now? I kind of cannot even figure out where it should go next. is it zig zig follow by the thing described in your post (1,108x) or should it continue to lows with zig-zag in middle?

I mean you say its choose your posion time after the zig-zag and I still dont get to even what side its desperation which makes u laugh
  • #139,474
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:26am Mar 4, 2016 8:26am
What we know:

EMPLOYMENT #'s good, PMI Manufacturing # good, Non-Farm # very good= RATE HIKE still possible....

What I don't know:

Is why this did not weigh into the Market to have a DIRECT PLAY to test the LOWs. I would have never read it as a zig zag UP to .102X.....I am assuming sisse you waited to see how .0910 tested prior and right before NY came on board in reference to your poison time? I looked at PA hitting .090X as a breech of the FLIP zone on the MICRO Levels in play with this kind of news.

As you say...crunch time.....Good luck to all you trading this. I am trading the LEG to .073X prior to ECB and hope to see it complete.

And, given the info on the GBP sisse, I do not see how GBP continues to test .4200 especially if RATE HIKE is less likely for BOE compared to ECB and still plausible for US. However, I know less about GBP as mentioned earlier and why I shy away from it.

Yes, I struggle with NEWS flows as they catch me off guard most the time even if I "think" I understand the data correctly. Sorry....I will probably get held back again this year and not advance with the rest of me class. I would like to be contributor here as opposed to the leech......sucking it all in and not giving anything worthy back. I am a voice for others here so I guess I will take that as something....
  • #139,475
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:27am Mar 4, 2016 8:27am
Quoting chester123
sisse, but what I do not get.... the zig-zag was an option followed by run up for ECB (ny or next week). But what is it now? I kind of cannot even figure out where it should go next. is it zig zig follow by the thing described in your post (1,108x) or should it continue to lows with zig-zag in middle? I mean you say its choose your posion time after the zig-zag and I still dont get to even what side its desperation which makes u laugh
Ok i got a few minutes before the open and this will take a few posts.

We need to go to very basic in TA and charting:

1. A zigzag is compose of 3 legs:

  1. UP -DOWN - UP
  2. DOWN-UP-DOWN

2. It implies looking for continuation moves to load a at a better price and usually are trigger after partial profit taking:

  1. I want to long in a uptrend ---> Sell off --> Fade the fresh lows -->Buy the bargain
  2. I want to short in a downtrend ---> Pump up --> Fade the fresh highs -> Sell the top

We'll talk later.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,476
  • Mar 4, 2016 8:59am Mar 4, 2016 8:59am
Anyone got any idea why Dollar is collapsing and loosing floor right now ?
  • #139,477
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:12am Mar 4, 2016 9:12am
Quoting Replicant
Anyone got any idea why Dollar is collapsing and loosing floor right now ?
nope, but I gotta say that the more NFP (maybe like 20) Ive seen the more I think its better to just leave the desk on Thursday (flat or with positions protected) and come back on Moday
  • #139,478
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:12am Mar 4, 2016 9:12am
Quoting Replicant
Anyone got any idea why Dollar is collapsing and loosing floor right now ?
because mofos love shopping cheap.
  • #139,479
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:13am Mar 4, 2016 9:13am
Quoting chester123
{quote} nope, but I gotta say that the more NFP (maybe like 20) Ive seen the more I think its better to just leave on Thursday (flat or with positions protected) and come on Moday
Absolute agree
  • #139,480
  • Mar 4, 2016 9:21am Mar 4, 2016 9:21am
Quoting Replicant
Anyone got any idea why Dollar is collapsing and loosing floor right now ?
i think it has to do with the drop in hourly wage earnings.... hasn't dropped since 2014
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