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  • #139,441
  • Mar 3, 2016 12:34pm Mar 3, 2016 12:34pm
Quoting sisse
This year maybe the last year CB are the central mover and shakers across the market.
...maybe these guys will take over....?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_H...the_Apocalypse
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,442
  • Mar 3, 2016 1:23pm Mar 3, 2016 1:23pm
Very decent session in FX in contrast with a comatose session in Equities and OIL. More importantly Euro breaking correlation triggering important early alerts (like the last few legs across the board) of what is about to come.

Euro set to lose 1.091x for the roll after a non stop +600 tick selloff so no point in holding remaining short term shorts for much longer. For strictly technical reasons until NFP:

--> Changing short term outlook in Euro from sell to Neutral

Markets aligning for 'Good news is not so good news' for the NFP via FED rates (NFP is last key report before next FED). We have maps pretty much set and clear for the CB combo starting with tomorrow NFP. ZigZag in play in the Euro that will be on the centre of the storm in the next couple of weeks.

For now, not expecting much for the closing range with main markets about to enter in sleep mode until tomorrow so managing positions to clear in the Euro and in the rest nothing to see or do at the current levels...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,443
  • Mar 3, 2016 1:25pm Mar 3, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} for the younger man, natgas will be a good long term play - check UNG, now skidding ever lower, maybe it'll trade below $5 in the 2016 seasonal lows....US natgas starting to be shipped out as LNG as more of the liquefaction plants come on line, that'll help change the supply/demand dynamic.....I am looking to buy UNG shares but I will wait for further lows.
Not managed by me, talking about City Roth

You already knew that question was directed to you and/or sisse

http://www.icmarc.org/prebuilt/stati.../49154010.html
  • #139,444
  • Mar 3, 2016 1:33pm Mar 3, 2016 1:33pm
Quoting sisse
Markets aligning for 'Good news is not so good news' for the NFP via FED rates
wouldn't it be so fun to see the Fed pop another 25 bps at the Mar FOMC....? JY did say they were doing 4x hikes in 2016....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,445
  • Mar 3, 2016 1:39pm Mar 3, 2016 1:39pm
Quoting Pharm0r
You already knew that question was directed to you and/or sisse http://www.icmarc.org/prebuilt/stati.../49154010.html
I'd have to dig into that invesco thing & see where they allocated, but generally, if they are in oil/gas, it is a good time to get in it probably.

I'm in the same boat as you and have very nice matching in my usg job, 10% monthly goes into the Roth, but I just let in sit in bonds and will do that until we see a real correction.....there's only so much you can do in most of those setups - I don't even have that energy fund option that you do.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,446
  • Mar 3, 2016 1:39pm Mar 3, 2016 1:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} wouldn't it be so fun to see the Fed pop another 25 bps at the Mar FOMC....? JY did say they were doing 4x hikes in 2016....
It will great to see those perma "I want free money forever" getting hammered.... Odds for hike March before NFP 15% ...Odds for hike March with a major overshoot in NFP wont pass 50% ....

it will be on the surprise side a hike. Best scenario for that will be a 'coordinate' CB effort ECB/FED ..."carrots (QE + RCut) and sticks (Rhike)" scenario ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,447
  • Mar 3, 2016 1:44pm Mar 3, 2016 1:44pm
Quoting sisse
...Odds for hike March with a major overshoot in NFP wont pass 50% ....
sounds like a strangle....^vix has been collapsing, that's probably what I will use, and give it a little time after the Mar opex week - I still remember the risk asset spike then dump after the rate hike in December.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,448
  • Mar 3, 2016 1:57pm Mar 3, 2016 1:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'd have to dig into that invesco thing & see where they allocated, but generally, if they are in oil/gas, it is a good time to get in it probably. I'm in the same boat as you and have very nice matching in my usg job, 10% monthly goes into the Roth, but I just let in sit in bonds and will do that until we see a real correction.....there's only so much you can do in most of those setups - I don't even have that energy fund option that you do.
click characteristics. Generally, I was thinking the same. Now that energy has been hammered its nice time to buy for the next 20 years

I've got pension, roth, and 457 through my employer. 5% going to each. Swear if I don't retire a millionaire.....once I take the next step up I'd like to make each of those 10%...which I'd also require my FX to provide supplemental living income
  • #139,449
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:11pm Mar 3, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I've got pension, roth, and 457 through my employer. 5% going to each. Swear if I don't retire a millionaire.....
just remember: you ain't no kinda Man if you don't own Land.

...ever been out to Independence, VA? ... I was just looking at cheap land out there on Zillow the other day.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,450
  • Edited 3:27pm Mar 3, 2016 3:11pm | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} just remember: you ain't no kinda Man if you don't own Land. ...ever been out to Independence, VA? ... I was just looking at cheap land out there on Zillow the other day.....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post8441101

I've got a sizable chunk through trust, as do all the kids and grandkids

I've never been to Independence, but I'll check the land. I've seen some good land deals out in NC as well- and even some in Cali around the Salton Sea. Really cool history around that man-made lake if you're not familiar with it. The salinity in the lake has killed off everything, but California has been trying to figure out a way to solve the issue for decades. Someday they may, and bring back the bustling vacation spot that was there in the 70s. Land is very cheap...

I'd kill to get some land out in the mountains. Idaho, Montana, Wyoming....

I know you're going to say no, but if you make it out to VA let me know
  • #139,451
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:48pm Mar 3, 2016 3:48pm
Timid but as widely expected break up at the end in US Equities, OIL sat down again to the tick in break out level but more importantly GOLD also triggering important early alerts for a change in short term outlook from neutral to sell for the FED/ECB combo. 126x.x holding NFP/W close triggers 1175.xx with ext 1091.xx depending on FED...

On the Euro, as expected since NY opening we are losing 1.091x for the roll, unlocking the zigzag play and setting the levels as flip zone for tomorrow NFP...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,452
  • Mar 3, 2016 11:02pm Mar 3, 2016 11:02pm
sisse,

Could you give us an idea of your zig zag move in EU? Are you looking at LL FIRST (NFP numbers inline or better) and then a HH?

I was looking all week for EU to reach .0730 level to go Long again Short term if it didn't take the .0700 handle. I was wondering what your zig and zag looked like.

I'm sure you will give us your usual map pre NFP.
Thanks
  • #139,453
  • Mar 3, 2016 11:55pm Mar 3, 2016 11:55pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I'd kill to get some land out in the mountains. Idaho, Montana, Wyoming.... I know you're going to say no, but if you make it out to VA let me know
I'll pm you, a little under the weather here now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,454
  • Mar 4, 2016 4:17am Mar 4, 2016 4:17am
Quoting sisse
GOLD also triggering important early alerts for a change in short term outlook from neutral to sell for the FED/ECB combo. 126x.x holding NFP/W close triggers 1175.xx with ext 1091.xx depending on FED... On the Euro, as expected since NY opening we are losing 1.091x for the roll, unlocking the zigzag play and setting the levels as flip zone for tomorrow NFP... sisse
Quoting Likerty
{quote} {quote} For now seems abit of USD weakness against these is brewing with gold wanting 1270's/ and U/J 113.20;s
Thats exactly what I'm looking for - a deep red correction.. Still, Gold has a chance for 1290's - a major pivot, which could send it to the skies (intraday) without looking back.
I have 110x - main untested line before continuing up again.. This god damn round number sitting near by doesnt help.. I would expect the next reversal to happen without touching it..
69
  • #139,455
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:40am Mar 4, 2016 5:40am
Session over with European equities following through with the break out from the US yesterday. Oil still shy by final gasp to take the highs. A blow will be sharp ....

Well done to all that rode the Euro from below but now we are entering in the main 'choose your poison time' for NFP and beyond. After breaking correlation with Equities a complex map short term is on the making.

--> First for NFP, plenty of Resistance overhead and a feeble floor for the NFP/W play which extends & includes the positioning for ECB next week. ECB 'Hawks' (if they can still be name as such in the Euro) front running the headlines reminding markets that +QE is not yet set on the table for March but odds remain low for a Bazooka in March (RC+QE).

--> With legs in equities gone for those not already in and OIL only with very expensive tickets still available for what it looks 'too good to be true ride' if pans out, the only cheap tickets available for today are in GOLD for preempting the ECB/FED combo.

--> On the currency board, complex zigzag legs on the making given the 2 masters (DOLLAR and EURO) are on centre stage in the upcoming weeks . More interesting we will have a fresh potential break out mid term in Dollar, and a farewell rally short term in Euro which will attract lots of interest from both sides to ride the upcoming breakout on the mid term consolidation.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,456
  • Mar 4, 2016 5:53am Mar 4, 2016 5:53am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Could you give us an idea of your zig zag move in EU? Are you looking at LL FIRST (NFP numbers inline or better) and then a HH? I was looking all week for EU to reach .0730 level to go Long again Short term if it didn't take the .0700 handle. I was wondering what your zig and zag looked like. I'm sure you will give us your usual map pre NFP. Thanks
zig zag is a form of lingo that will eventually continue with " as expected" after the fact. A display of linguistic skill in it basic level.
  • #139,457
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:19am Mar 4, 2016 7:19am
Quoting AstroStudent
{quote} zig zag is a form of lingo that will eventually continue with " as expected" after the fact. A display of linguistic skill in it basic level.
Thank you very much for you in depth analysis and contribution to the thread. Invaluable information, keep it coming.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,458
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:21am Mar 4, 2016 7:21am
...and here we go for NFP...

Not expecting much from the number itself as the strong trend in employment is very solid. However, we have ECB/FED in play in the next following weeks so perfect timing for positioning ...

--> On the fundamental side

  1. Expecting inline or slightly better numbers to confirm the solid trend. An overshoot will kill all FED Doves for the foreseeable future and will put rate hikes inline with FED expectations for this year.
  2. A flop wont have major implication in the employment trend but it will keep expectations of hikes not matching the FED (4 hikes) extending the same playing field till the FED.

--> On the technical side

  1. "Good news is not so good news" in play for Equities for soft continuation to final targets (S&P 2021.xx) and OIL (with a potential major break up to $36.7 unlocking final target $42.5 later with ECB while Dollar holding 97.2 will unlock a V. REAL chance for a break 101.7x with the ECB/FED combo.
  2. To the other side with slightly bad or a flop will trigger retraces and zigzag in Equities ->1962.x->2021 and DOLLAR 95,8x -> 101.7x with ECB/FED while triggering profit taking in OIL to $32.7x.

--> For the actual flows (Euro only)

Complex zigzag triggered after breaking correlation with Equities yesterday. The play extends much beyond the ECB positioning with 1.102x top, 1.091x as flip zone and 1.083x very feeble floor for the news leg.

Inline for prolly an uneventful day with equities on driver sit for momentum with zigzag play 1.098x -> 1.091x for a chance to take a test 1.108x before ECB. A miss will only provide momentum. To the other side with a overshoot, Direct play with 1.098x -> 1.091x to take soft lows and complete the short term leg before ECB 1.073x. Both sides tradable as its expected in Neutral outlook.

Plenty of trading opportunities across the board....here got what I needed across the board so GL all planning to trade the next few legs ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,459
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:30am Mar 4, 2016 7:30am
Strong overshoot ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,460
  • Mar 4, 2016 7:32am Mar 4, 2016 7:32am
.0730 reasonable today or complete before ECB for this strong overshoot?

I have GBP target for .3900--> with ext to .3830 before ECB as well with this strg overshoot due to where GBP went this week.
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