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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #341
  • Mar 2, 2016 5:34am Mar 2, 2016 5:34am
Quoting PA is King
Here's one other chart for you....remember last week I said to look at the Aussie Daily chart for early and mid February??? Notice what happens every time there is a 1 day selloff on Aussie? Price spends the next few days rallying. There is NEVER any follow through on the selling. Something changed in the market back in the middle of January when price bottomed out around .6830. Price rallied right back up above .7000 since then and hasn't been able to close on the Daily chart below .7000 for the entire month of February. Those are just some other...

Hey PA very good chart analysis and every time I think short AUD you give me reason for caution. Here are a few numbers to look at on the flip side of what you have

pointed out here. Deja vu, AU has hit highs at these levels three times previously in the last 30 days., starting 4th Feb. Within 1 to 2 days after hitting those heights, the

pair dropped, in consecutive order, to .7060; .7146; and last time .7118. I'm short from .7237 this time. Soooo I'm targeting .7132 (half way between last 2 lows) within

2 days, maybe tomorrow.
  • #342
  • Mar 2, 2016 5:44am Mar 2, 2016 5:44am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Hey PA very good chart analysis and every time I think short AUD you give me reason for caution. Here are a few numbers to look at on the flip side of what you have pointed out here. Deja vu, AU has hit highs at these levels three times previously in the last 30 days., starting 4th Feb. Within 1 to 2 days after hitting those heights, the pair dropped, in consecutive order, to .7060; .7146; and last time .7118. I'm short from .7237 this time. Soooo I'm targeting .7132 (half way between last 2 lows) within 2 days, maybe tomorrow.

Thanks Blackopal! By all means I agree with those who want to short, .7250 area would be the best area to do that as it provides the lowest risk for a stoploss and highest probability of a winning trade(Sell High, Buy Low). Looks like it's heading in the right direction so far. I could be wrong, but I anticipate some volatility within a .7150-7250 range for the rest of the week until NFP on Friday. However, depending on ADP news today...I also wouldn't be surprised to see a false move one direction until Friday and then it reverse. Either way, hope you make your pips!
  • #343
  • Mar 2, 2016 6:09am Mar 2, 2016 6:09am
I am now done with the short retrace $$$ now will wait my chart telling me perhaps a up so I will wait
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #344
  • Mar 2, 2016 7:18am Mar 2, 2016 7:18am
Quoting Aussi
I am now done with the short retrace $$$ now will wait my chart telling me perhaps a up so I will wait
lol, nice job. And I was just going to say, Good USD news on ADP report so you know what that means??? Another Aussie rally! lol Seems to be the pattern.
  • #345
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:16am Mar 2, 2016 9:16am
See what I'm talking about, no matter what the news is...AUD rallies! lol Think about this for a minute...the US had GDP of 1.0% versus 0.4% expected(0.6% better). The Aussie had only 0.1% better than expected. Yet the Aussie has rallied Much more than it has sold off even though the USD data was way better! Just more food for thought.


70% of the traders on FF that have trade explorer accounts and are trading Aussie are short. Expect the rally to continue as the market makers hunt their stops or margin call them.
  • #346
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:28am Mar 2, 2016 9:28am
Remember that Daily chart I posted a early yesterday? Here's the update...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproDaily 002.png Size: 163 KB
  • #347
  • Mar 2, 2016 12:14pm Mar 2, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Thanks Blackopal! By all means I agree with those who want to short, .7250 area would be the best area to do that as it provides the lowest risk for a stoploss and highest probability of a winning trade(Sell High, Buy Low). Looks like it's heading in the right direction so far. I could be wrong, but I anticipate some volatility within a .7150-7250 range for the rest of the week until NFP on Friday. However, depending on ADP news today...I also wouldn't be surprised to see a false move one direction until Friday and then it reverse. Either...
I had a pretty good idea based on price action one of two things would happen...looks like we are getting the second one. Price has broken out of the range to the upside(no surprise there, I've been saying buy the dips for weeks based on price action)...I anticipate price will continue to move higher today/tomorrow as well. IF price is going to drop, it will be on Friday for NFP...but that will be too late however. Even if price were to drop 200pips on Friday(highly unlikely), that would only move price down around .7070 on Aussie which is still WELL above December/January lows. And if price doesn't drop Friday, I can see .7400-7500 as the next targets as early as next week for .7500.

Once again, Price Action is King and it's been trending up for weeks...my bias remains the same, buy the dips.

Be careful trading NFP, if you trade it! Cheers!
  • #348
  • Edited 12:43pm Mar 2, 2016 12:32pm | Edited 12:43pm
15 more pips and .7300! Also, a Daily candle close above .7260 will be a close above the Daily 200ma....first time it will have done that since Sept. 2014!!! January's lows could have been the bottom of the downtrend and we are in the early stages of a major correction higher!
  • #349
  • Mar 2, 2016 1:12pm Mar 2, 2016 1:12pm
Quoting PA is King
15 more pips and .7300! Also, a Daily candle close above .7260 will be a close above the Daily 200ma....first time it will have done that since Sept. 2014!!! January's lows could have been the bottom of the downtrend and we are in the early stages of a major correction higher!
AUDNZD has a massive amount of space to the north. pip value will be less, but its wide open imo
  • #350
  • Mar 2, 2016 7:23pm Mar 2, 2016 7:23pm
While there are many trading styles out there...the thread I started is more about helping the new traders learn the market and take higher probability(safer trades) in order to protect and help grow their accounts. I fully understand the more experienced traders who trade against the trend or trade both directions during a trend....but as I've mentioned lots of a times before and the Aussie has proven this for weeks now, your Safest Trade is to trade WITH THE TREND!

So on that note, I leave you with the most meaningful quote I know..."The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent."

Happy Trading!
  • #351
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:13am Mar 3, 2016 5:13am
It makes me sad to currently see 67% of Aussie traders are n FF short...and 461 of them in losing trades while only 7 in winning trades.
  • #352
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:17am Mar 3, 2016 5:17am
Quoting PA is King
It makes me sad to currently see 67% of Aussie traders are n FF short...and 461 of them in losing trades while only 7 in winning trades.
Ooops lol haha...

anyway I just entered an AU short... only look for 30, may add if it gets there, may hold until pp
Attached Image
  • #353
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:20am Mar 3, 2016 5:20am
Quoting Don96
{quote} Ooops lol haha... anyway I just entered an AU short... only look for 30, may add if it gets there, may hold until pp {image}
may be strengthened if we get below and stay below 0.73284...
or weaker above 0.73355
  • #354
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:52am Mar 3, 2016 5:52am
Quoting PA is King
While there are many trading styles out there...the thread I started is more about helping the new traders learn the market and take higher probability(safer trades) in order to protect and help grow their accounts. I fully understand the more experienced traders who trade against the trend or trade both directions during a trend....but as I've mentioned lots of a times before and the Aussie has proven this for weeks now, your Safest Trade is to trade WITH THE TREND! So on that note, I leave you with the most meaningful quote I know..."The market...
Hi PA, just an alternative view.. Bigger bears may be looking for a short at these levels (7330+) with minimal risk and maximum reward.

I see a potential setup towards 0.639x. So we could look for a short here risking 56 pips (HH) with a target 940 pips below. Sometimes the best trades are made as close to the risk as possible

I am a big fan of waiting for at least the 78.6% retrace minimum before the original trend continues. 88.6% even better.
  • #355
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:36am Mar 3, 2016 6:36am
Quoting PA is King
It makes me sad to currently see 67% of Aussie traders are n FF short...and 461 of them in losing trades while only 7 in winning trades.
there is a exception chart says it all , it went down for a 35% retrace then it stuttered I sold my short as I stated in a earlier post , the AUD is a pair that will do what it wants , I have seen it time and time again PA is correct traders went on a short and didn't watch the chart , trend is a friend
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #356
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:50am Mar 3, 2016 6:50am
Quoting diggo
{quote} Hi PA, just an alternative view.. Bigger bears may be looking for a short at these levels (7330+) with minimal risk and maximum reward. I see a potential setup towards 0.639x. So we could look for a short here risking 56 pips (HH) with a target 940 pips below. Sometimes the best trades are made as close to the risk as possible I am a big fan of waiting for at least the 78.6% retrace minimum before the original trend continues. 88.6% even better.
You must be trading a longer term strategy than me, I'm just a day trader. 0.639x is no where on my radar screen. I don't even see it going below .7100 any time soon. Even if NFP comes out GREAT for the US tomorrow and we get a 200pip selloff, that only puts us at .7130 from current levels. And that would be at the bottom of the 1hr upchannel, which would be a good spot to buy the dips at. But again, I don't have that long term view...perhaps later this summer it could be down at those levels, but not near term as to what I trade.

Many Pips To You!
  • #357
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:53am Mar 3, 2016 6:53am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} there is a exception chart says it all , it went down for a 35% retrace then it stuttered I sold my short as I stated in a earlier post , the AUD is a pair that will do what it wants , I have seen it time and time again PA is correct traders went on a short and didn't watch the chart , trend is a friend
The sad part for me was just seeing so many people in losing traders...over 400??? I hope it does come back for them and that make some pips or get out at b.e. at least. I don't see much selling happening today though. What I think, and I could be wrong, is the market makers will continue to drive price higher. Just just reached a new high of .7340.

Keep up the great work Aussi!
  • #358
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:25am Mar 3, 2016 7:25am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} The sad part for me was just seeing so many people in losing traders...over 400??? I hope it does come back for them and that make some pips or get out at b.e. at least. I don't see much selling happening today though. What I think, and I could be wrong, is the market makers will continue to drive price higher. Just just reached a new high of .7340. Keep up the great work Aussi!
PA is king thank you but I see a better trader what traders forget is the charts .... working of 5 , 15 and 30 min charts does not give a real reflection of what's happening , so what do I do well its a gut feeling at times . I first look at my brokers charts I start at the monthly chart then I go to weekly daily and the 1hr chart I do not look at any other charts trend from monthly and work my way down , I see a easy trend , news plays a big part and can break a trend good or bad news you have to continue be wary , the first sign of a retrace faltering you need to get out if the trade is against the trend , a rapid rise or fall a retrace happens only to continue trend , A RULE I HAVE ON A RAPID RISE OR FALL A RETRACE SHOULD HAPPEN MOST TIME MY TAKE PROFFIT IS NORMALLY BETWEEN 30% AND FIFTY % I AM WATCHING THE TREND SO SHOULD YOU , just a small inside of how I trade
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #359
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:46am Mar 3, 2016 7:46am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} PA is king thank you but I see a better trader what traders forget is the charts .... working of 5 , 15 and 30 min charts does not give a real reflection of what's happening , so what do I do well its a gut feeling at times . I first look at my brokers charts I start at the monthly chart then I go to weekly daily and the 1hr chart I do not look at any other charts trend from monthly and work my way down , I see a easy trend , news plays a big part and can break a trend good or bad news you have to continue be wary , the first sign of...
I agree with a few of your points above. I watch the news and see how price reacts to it. I don't really care much what the news numbers are, just how price reacts to it. Easy example, last week we and early this week we had good USD news and bad AUD news but AUD rallied...so that tips me off that I should be looking for long trades. I'm also weary of rapid rises/falls in price as we are seeing on Aussie this week...over 200pips in 2 1/2 days. It will come back down, I'm just not sure today is the day for that. Also, that's good you aren't greedy and only look for 30-50% retraces for your profit area. Good sound money/trade management.

Thanks for your post and many pips to you!
  • #360
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:00am Mar 3, 2016 8:00am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I agree with a few of your points above. I watch the news and see how price reacts to it. I don't really care much what the news numbers are, just how price reacts to it. Easy example, last week we and early this week we had good USD news and bad AUD news but AUD rallied...so that tips me off that I should be looking for long trades. I'm also weary of rapid rises/falls in price as we are seeing on Aussie this week...over 200pips in 2 1/2 days. It will come back down, I'm just not sure today is the day for that. Also, that's good you aren't...

just a note the 30% and 50% is not set in concrete its a gut feeling when trading like the latest rise a fall was going to happen before the trend was going to go back up to sucker people to get shorts and that did happen so lets go one step up , when we trade the broker is working against you so greedy greeeedy keeps you in the trade making you a profit in the short but in a 5min instant your short is now a loser trade when you could have money in your bank , trade sell trade sell
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