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AUDUSD Trading Pit

  • #221
  • Mar 2, 2016 10:50am Mar 2, 2016 10:50am
It looks like real accumulation.. i wanted expect a pullback until we hit 7300
  • #222
  • Mar 2, 2016 11:07am Mar 2, 2016 11:07am
I am fairly confident of a turnaround because of the sudden move into the level. If we had slowly crept into the level I'd be concerned. In addition, this is the first visit here since the beginning of January which yielded a very strong move away 4:1 RR. Lastly, we are at the top of the curve on the daily with much chop under us and when looking at the larger picture, we are in a strong downtrend. At the very least we'll be seeing a bounce in the next few hours to a day or so.
  • #223
  • Mar 2, 2016 11:09am Mar 2, 2016 11:09am
Quoting Denden2012
I am fairly confident of a turnaround because of the sudden move into the level. If we had slowly crept into the level I'd be concerned. In addition, this is the first visit here since the beginning of January which yielded a very strong move away 4:1 RR. Lastly, we are at the top of the curve on the daily with much chop under us and when looking at the larger picture, we are in a strong downtrend. At the very least we'll be seeing a bounce in the next few hours to a day or so.
amen, bro
(no offense to bull)
As Above, So Below
  • #224
  • Mar 2, 2016 11:39am Mar 2, 2016 11:39am
a nice article for those interested:

https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/a...d-time-7204136
As Above, So Below
  • #225
  • Mar 2, 2016 11:55am Mar 2, 2016 11:55am
Quoting tashkent
a nice article for those interested: https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/a...d-time-7204136
"Don't tell me what to sell, but rather when to sell it."
  • #226
  • Mar 2, 2016 8:42pm Mar 2, 2016 8:42pm
Quoting tashkent
so now the question is if this is a real breakout with first target of 7300 or just a "stop hunt" or "fakey" my shorts with average position of around 7230 stopped out but re-entered at 7264.
grrreat. lost another 20 pips. au on steroids.
re-entered more short around 7317 and sell order at 7368.
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As Above, So Below
  • #227
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:06pm Mar 2, 2016 9:06pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} grrreat. lost another 20 pips. au on steroids. re-entered more short around 7317 and sell order at 7368. {image}
I worked out that style of trading wasn't for me a while back. Am now short from 7209 to 7308 and am waiting for sizeable pullback to close most, if not all of my positions in profit. Of course I've also got a plan in place for if price goes north of 76c but don't expect it will get past multiple highs on the daily chart in high 73s without a fight / decent pullback.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #228
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:13pm Mar 2, 2016 9:13pm
Quoting dab
{quote} I worked out that style of trading wasn't for me a while back. Am now short from 7209 to 7308 and am waiting for sizeable pullback to close most, if not all of my positions in profit. Of course I've also got a plan in place for if price goes north of 76c but don't expect it will get past multiple highs on the daily chart in high 73s without a fight / decent pullback.
do you mean trading with sl?
As Above, So Below
  • #229
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:39pm Mar 2, 2016 9:39pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} do you mean trading with sl?
Yes, got sick of locking in losses at unfavourable price and watching price hit my stop and go in the direction I'd wanted in the first place. If I need to I'll at least wait for smaller pullback to close some positions.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #230
  • Mar 2, 2016 10:07pm Mar 2, 2016 10:07pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Yes, got sick of locking in losses at unfavourable price and watching price hit my stop and go in the direction I'd wanted in the first place. If I need to I'll at least wait for smaller pullback to close some positions.
depending on market conditions i also trade w/o sl. this is usually during a well established range or when caught in a bounce/retracement. at times when like today with au - strong directional move, i prefer using sl. however every time, my next new position is larger than stopped out position. so if my first position is 10% of total capital, the next time i enter with 15% and keep going up. when finally market turns my way, even small retracement will cover all the costs. this is a little modified version of martingaling which helps to prevent from holding heavy underwater positions when i get the direction completely wrong.
As Above, So Below
  • #231
  • Mar 2, 2016 10:46pm Mar 2, 2016 10:46pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} depending on market conditions i also trade w/o sl. this is usually during a well established range or when caught in a bounce/retracement. at times when like today with au - strong directional move, i prefer using sl. however every time, my next new position is larger than stopped out position. so if my first position is 10% of total capital, the next time i enter with 15% and keep going up. when finally market turns my way, even small retracement will cover all the costs. this is a little modified version of martingaling which helps to...
I agree that holding heavy underwater positions is undesirable and think I've managed to eliminate this from my trading with longest hold in last 6 months being 27 days but an average of just under 4 days. (My biggest win is also bigger than my biggest loss) and my average is a healthy positive!)

Whilst I too increase my position sizes as price goes against me your example of 10% or 15% of total capital on one position seems a big risk. I appreciate it may have just been an illustration.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #232
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:07am Mar 3, 2016 5:07am
Quoting dab
{quote} I agree that holding heavy underwater positions is undesirable and think I've managed to eliminate this from my trading with longest hold in last 6 months being 27 days but an average of just under 4 days. (My biggest win is also bigger than my biggest loss) and my average is a healthy positive!) Whilst I too increase my position sizes as price goes against me your example of 10% or 15% of total capital on one position seems a big risk. I appreciate it may have just been an illustration.

I put order in to buy 3 hours ago before driving to Muswellbrook prepatory to work. Got in at .73028. Better late than never, and chart looking strong. Candles on 4Hr, 2HR, 1HR all looking bullish and testing new highs, but has reached the level of the turning point from highs of 5th December. About level with top of bodies of highest 4 candles around 5th Dec. Also about level with the bottom of the major downtrend that ran from .94 Sept. 2014 to August 2015. Big roadblocks.
  • #233
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:14am Mar 3, 2016 5:14am
just tried an AU short...
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  • #234
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:16am Mar 3, 2016 5:16am
Quoting Don96
just tried an AU short... {image}
Same
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #235
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:13am Mar 3, 2016 6:13am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I put order in to buy 3 hours ago before driving to Muswellbrook prepatory to work. Got in at .73028. Better late than never, and chart looking strong. Candles on 4Hr, 2HR, 1HR all looking bullish and testing new highs, but has reached the level of the turning point from highs of 5th December. About level with top of bodies of highest 4 candles around 5th Dec. Also about level with the bottom of the major downtrend that ran from .94 Sept. 2014 to August 2015. Big roadblocks.
so far not a single sign of reversal... bull still can squeeze more pips out of this. but i just can't buy here. holding shorts with av pos.7320
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  • #236
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:18am Mar 3, 2016 6:18am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} so far not a single sign of reversal... bull still can squeeze more pips out of this. but i just can't buy here. holding shorts with av pos.7320 {image}

I got out at .733 tough level to get through. Shorts here look good
  • #237
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:45am Mar 3, 2016 6:45am
"Strong sell interest at 7350" according to forexlive - could be a better level to enter a sell, I would expect a pullback around this level but think it will be short lived, i'm considering a long at around 7250
  • #238
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:51am Mar 3, 2016 6:51am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Same
Closed -12.
Will just have to wait for reactionary short setup.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #239
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:07am Mar 3, 2016 7:07am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Closed -12. Will just have to wait for reactionary short setup.
shorting au has been fun lately, mate
As Above, So Below
  • #240
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:13am Mar 3, 2016 7:13am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I got out at .733 tough level to get through. Shorts here look good
only tough level i am seeing to the upside is previous resistance at 7385. i am waiting to see what us data will offer. thinking it will take us closer to 7385.
As Above, So Below
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