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  • #139,421
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:28am Mar 3, 2016 3:28am
Quoting sisse
...was just referring about 3% yesterday only .... sure exactly my point, OIL has been everything but choppy the last few months .... sisse
yes, I guessed as much. What do you want to bet NFP will be a non-event....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,422
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:32am Mar 3, 2016 3:32am
sisse, just a quick update: whats your analogous target on DAX? analogous to US500 2020. I see 10060, possible? As a clean sweep pre-ECB. Even rather more early - today + tomorrow
  • #139,423
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:54am Mar 3, 2016 3:54am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yes, I guessed as much. What do you want to bet NFP will be a non-event....?
NFP by itself? not expecting much either but don't forget its the last major report before the ECB/FED combo so I wouldn't let it pass that easy if you are in or looking for positions ...

Quoting chester123
sisse, just a quick update: whats your analogous target on DAX? analogous to US500 2020. I see 10060, possible? As a clean sweep pre-ECB. Even rather more early - today + tomorrow
998x.x with ext 1088x.x with ECB delivering...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,424
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:12am Mar 3, 2016 5:12am
Quoting USD-Bear
Bunds finally turning a bit, like to see it below 164 {image}
Hmm, congratulations usd-bear. u have any clue what triggered the monster gap? i dont get it
  • #139,425
  • Mar 3, 2016 5:55am Mar 3, 2016 5:55am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hmm, congratulations usd-bear. u have any clue what triggered the monster gap? i dont get it
well, investors not likely buying bonds worldwide, imo it's become an artificial market for CB's, playing against the trend (which I do) is expecting normalization and loosing CB's in a market-segment where they do not belong.
Recent developments in the US (dominant for direction) look promising in this respect but Europe is still lagging.
After ECB's QE-considerations for March and loosing the 160-level market accepted the situation and killed sellers (like me).
Where this could end, anybodies guess, my thoughts where 0% on 10 years Bunds (price around 167) was likely to give some resistance.
I still think we are near a very major and historical turning point but one gets humbled fighting this abnormality.
Planning to position and possible re-position running trades at extremes (current avg price 166,23) giving me some room to get out at BE if timing is not optimal.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,426
  • Mar 3, 2016 6:22am Mar 3, 2016 6:22am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} well, investors not likely buying bonds worldwide, imo it's become an artificial market for CB's, playing against the trend (which I do) is expecting normalization and loosing CB's in a market-segment where they do not belong. Recent developments in the US (dominant for direction) look promising in this respect but Europe is still lagging. After ECB's QE-considerations for March and loosing the 160-level market accepted the situation and killed sellers (like me). Where this could end, anybodies guess, my thoughts where 0% on 10 years...
Im just wondering as Im not experienced in this at all:

so u say the CB´s monopolized the market for themselves. But if you look at 10-y US yield: its been declining since 80´s = so u think the US QE exaggerated it/the bonds route would end sooner? and the market is due for some huge correction?


in US: Isnt it best to wait for the correcion after the US rate normalization is well under way and they start shrinking balance sheet? - after 2/3 hikes? Cuz if the start of the rate cycle flattens the yield curve usually (and did this time) =) in further presses down on long term treasirues yield.

for EU: if it was to act the same way - the huge turn around should not start sooner than before ECB reaching its monetary loosing limit, no?

Sorry if these are too basic questions
  • #139,427
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:38am Mar 3, 2016 7:38am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Im just wondering as Im not experienced in this at all: so u say the CBs monopolized the market for themselves. But if you look at 10-y US yield: its been declining since 80s = so u think the US QE exaggerated it/the bonds route would end sooner? and the market is due for some huge correction? in US: Isnt it best to wait for the correcion after the US rate normalization is well under way and they start shrinking balance sheet? - after 2/3 hikes? Cuz if the start of the rate cycle flattens the yield curve usually (and did this time) =) in...
not exactly experienced myself but I try....
Not monopolized there still are pensionfunds and the like, were rules demand treasury positions. Their actions more disrupted normal demand/supply flows in a massive way. Yes the bullmarket is going on now for 35 years and would not reached negative rates without QE. I'm not arguing about a correction but about a major turnaround. I'm afraid that eventually QE-actions world-wide could very well lead to a phase of hyperinflation.
You probably are right, current trades are in a very early phase and could well prove too early. On the other hand I know myself, somehow I find it very difficult to run behind the facts/moves so I prefer to counter prob several times to get in. It reminds me of my old UJ-positions years ago where it took me more then 6 months to get the final trend-change which finally were most rewarding.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,428
  • Mar 3, 2016 7:55am Mar 3, 2016 7:55am
Quoting USD-Bear
.... I'm afraid that eventually QE-actions world-wide could very well lead to a phase of hyperinflation. ...
You are already ahead on time ...the next major world economic cycle down will be trigger by hyperinflation and paying the toll for the current cycle up based on QE and cheap money.

The 'small' problem is that forecasting the timing of major economic cycles is still on the realm of hocus pocus. Taking the academic acceptable average of +/-24 years for each major cycle we should be aiming for the year 2025/30 for that ...

For us traders, as you well pointed out, Bonds entered in no man land after that break 160.xx we discussed and got caught live here in the thread. In my books, bonds are beyond tradable for the short term at the current levels as we are trading uncharted waters in the FA side with no end in sight. It will burst for sure but as you well know catching tops and bottom in manic/panic scenarios is better left to the very few hands with deep pockets that set not take direction in the market.

In any case, very interesting that you still keep tracking the top... GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,429
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:19am Mar 3, 2016 8:19am
Here we go for the US session after a dull european session with only Euro having some action and finally making a first intraday retrace in over a week after failing to take the lows yesterday.

Nothing new across the board, Equities, Oil, Gold, Dollar and yen parked ready for NFP. On the Euro, 1,091x holding today will leave the map crystal clear for the NFP play and beyond ....

Not much to do at these levels, with equities and OIL sitting in imminent break so only a preemptive NFP move until Europe goes home to leave just crumbs for tomorrow will give us something today ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,430
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:19am Mar 3, 2016 8:19am
Interesting, so what will be a good way to protect oneself against that?
  • #139,431
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:23am Mar 3, 2016 8:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You are already ahead on time ...the next major world economic cycle down will be trigger by hyperinflation and paying the toll for the current cycle up based on QE and cheap money. The 'small' problem is that forecasting the timing of major economic cycles is still on the realm of hocus pocus. Taking the academic acceptable average of +/-24 years for each major cycle we should be aiming for the year 2025/30 for that ... For us traders, as you well pointed out, Bonds entered in no man land after that break 160.xx we discussed and got caught...
thanks for your considerations sisse,
agree it all could prove to be very premature but the start of inflationary thoughts will suffice for me.
Yes, catching tops and bottoms is the way I traded whole my life and build my capital on
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,432
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:34am Mar 3, 2016 8:34am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} thanks for your considerations sisse, agree it all could prove to be very premature but the start of inflationary thoughts will suffice for me. Yes, catching tops and bottoms is the way I traded whole my life and build my capital on
I understand. The move you are aiming is far from the average trade. Fortunes have been and will be made in trades like that ...

This year maybe the last year CB are the central mover and shakers across the market. If ECB use the last bazooka and FED stay put MARCH (max Jun) we are pretty much set to start turning the page in this chapter. IMO, there is where you are going to be proven right (or wrong) with momentum ...meanwhile GL ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,433
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:39am Mar 3, 2016 8:39am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I understand. The move you are aiming is far form the average trade. Fortunes have been and will be made in trades like that ... This year maybe the last year CB take are the central mover and shakers across the market. If ECB use the last bazooka and FED stay put MARCH (max Jun) we are pretty much set to start turning the page in this chapter. IMO, there is where you are going to be proven right (or wrong) with momentum ...meanwhile GL ... sisse
hi sisse
you have any ideas about what way em currencies are heading on short-mid term?
  • #139,434
  • Mar 3, 2016 8:54am Mar 3, 2016 8:54am
Quoting rioMario
{quote} longs in but absolutely not comfortable with it. trailing stop but hoping to keep a buffer to play NFP (targeting 1.094 - 1.111). good luck everyone {image}
ok. I'll take 1.092 ahead of ISM. Closing half pos and trailing stop at 1.0875.
  • #139,435
  • Edited 10:07am Mar 3, 2016 9:06am | Edited 10:07am
Manufacturing PMI meet expectations. Still EU going Higher and GBP. Perplexed. All other Markets-parked.

GBP PMI missed their numbers; yet, still continued higher. Perhaps, the moves are driven due to the YEN and funding currencies.
  • #139,436
  • Mar 3, 2016 10:14am Mar 3, 2016 10:14am
Quoting IMARICH1
Manufacturing PMI meet expectations. Still EU going Higher and GBP. Perplexed. All other Markets-parked. GBP PMI missed their numbers; yet, still continued higher. Perhaps, the moves are driven due to the YEN and funding currencies.
Profit taking mate (+600 ticks selloff non stop) ...

Strong opening session in the Euro with profit taking before the mover and shakers of the month. Tracking very closely the european close ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,437
  • Mar 3, 2016 10:18am Mar 3, 2016 10:18am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Profit taking mate (+600 ticks selloff non stop) ... Strong opening session in the Euro with profit taking before the mover and shakers of the month. Tracking very closely the european close ... sisse
Which means reloads soon

Anyone of you investing in energies long term? Thinking of allocating some of my portfolio over
  • #139,438
  • Mar 3, 2016 10:39am Mar 3, 2016 10:39am
lol it just ran through some stops. seems like I really have to upgrade my NFP_ECB_FED chart as we gonna sit higher than I thought since we did not break down yesterday
  • #139,439
  • Edited 10:53am Mar 3, 2016 10:41am | Edited 10:53am
Thanks sisse! Elementary understanding for me. Sorry.

I would like to understand the markets like you but realize this is probably just not going to happen. I get something right and then it changes. Is this move because of A, B, C, D or A and D but not B and C. Hated those multiple choice tests!

Trying to figure what is driving the EU and GBP on decent US data. Manufacturing in US still remains better than the rest of the World and to me is a big indicator of our economy. And, although unemployment missed today it has been relatively consistent-positive along with NFP. But, now I realize this isn't driving the market today.

I was looking for a LL in EU yesterday since it broke .0830 and am not sure if that is a tale-tell sign that it stopped at .0825 and continues higher. GBP I saw good Resistance at .4000 handle and with their data and PMI fail and US PMI positive was perplexed GBP continued higher. Thanks for the reasoning but how do you know when its going to be profit taking? Because of pre-NFP? 600 pips so lets take profit and see what happens with NFP or position for it. I get it! It comes with a cost though.
  • #139,440
  • Mar 3, 2016 12:20pm Mar 3, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Anyone of you investing in energies long term? Thinking of allocating some of my portfolio over
for the younger man, natgas will be a good long term play - check UNG, now skidding ever lower, maybe it'll trade below $5 in the 2016 seasonal lows....US natgas starting to be shipped out as LNG as more of the liquefaction plants come on line, that'll help change the supply/demand dynamic.....I am looking to buy UNG shares but I will wait for further lows.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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