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  • #12,221
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:49am Mar 2, 2016 9:49am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} 2016 seasonal low......omg.....$4.xx?.....buying shares in the game plan but how long you gonna live....?
Lol. I know. Jan/Feb is ordinarily the "seasonal peak," so I may acquire additional shares somewhere below here ... . If this is the "peak," where will the trough be at peak injection (Oct/Nov) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,222
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:56am Mar 2, 2016 9:56am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ....looks doomed to me, too many problems, crushing debt, crowded market, I never traded it....
I made a few bucks on it, went small, knew the whole enterprise was a disaster from the get-go ... . I figured it was like an NBG trade: throw a few bucks at it, and if it explodes a few months down the road ... . But now it's kind of flirting with delisting, and "Homey don't play that ... ."

Inserted Video
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,223
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:56am Mar 2, 2016 9:56am
huge crude build report today - data really not pushing too hard on /CL.....we'll see if oil rally can continue with such data points in the way, and what will happen to the correlation with equities....

....note to self and other volatility watchers - Brexit referendum date June 23, 2016....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,224
  • Mar 2, 2016 1:23pm Mar 2, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting The Fool
huge crude build report today - data really not pushing too hard on /CL.....we'll see if oil rally can continue with such data points in the way, and what will happen to the correlation with equities.... ....note to self and other volatility watchers - Brexit referendum date June 23, 2016....
PA after CL inventories... first push down, then up... BUT both extremes right to the edges of this wedge.
/CL 60m IB chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CL-60m-0302.PNG Size: 215 KB


anyways... I have sold one /ES Apr 2020/2050 call spread for $9.50 CR... fook it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,225
  • Mar 2, 2016 1:37pm Mar 2, 2016 1:37pm
Quoting StrayDog
BUT both extremes right to the edges of this wedge.
setting up a bear flag?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,226
  • Mar 2, 2016 2:16pm Mar 2, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting The Fool
....note to self and other volatility watchers - Brexit referendum date June 23, 2016....
be patient....let the Spring equity rally run its course and tank the ^VIX. Also, if you want to bracket that 6/23 Brexit date, there's no vix product options (UVXY, VXX) beyond June until Sept - need to wait til the July options roll up......idk, what do you think, Cecil - will we see the Brexit go through......maybe all a buy rumor/sell fact scenario when no Brexit is the outcome....either way, gotta love the scheduled volatility events.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,227
  • Mar 2, 2016 6:40pm Mar 2, 2016 6:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} be patient....let the Spring equity rally run its course and tank the ^VIX. Also, if you want to bracket that 6/23 Brexit date, there's no vix product options (UVXY, VXX) beyond June until Sept - need to wait til the July options roll up......idk, what do you think, Cecil - will we see the Brexit go through......maybe all a buy rumor/sell fact scenario when no Brexit is the outcome....either way, gotta love the scheduled volatility events.
I'll wait to see if by brexit referendum we can see the vix near 10 or below because historically that nearing the bottom and S/P may be floating around 2050-75 again that will be ideal scenario but in all honesty I think the UK will remain in the EU so there maybe a different catalyst make the VIX jump. I like to see consolidation near 10 on the VIX
  • #12,228
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:21pm Mar 2, 2016 9:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} be patient....let the Spring equity rally run its course and tank the ^VIX. Also, if you want to bracket that 6/23 Brexit date, there's no vix product options (UVXY, VXX) beyond June until Sept - need to wait til the July options roll up......idk, what do you think, Cecil - will we see the Brexit go through......maybe all a buy rumor/sell fact scenario when no Brexit is the outcome....either way, gotta love the scheduled volatility events.
Do you really believe a Brexit outcome will occurs? In my opinion, it is just some party to depreciate Pound and creating some market volatility atmosphere. No difference with previous Grexit, it is just like everything on schedule or well plan.
  • #12,229
  • Mar 2, 2016 10:03pm Mar 2, 2016 10:03pm
Quoting ChinaTraderz
Do you really believe a Brexit outcome will occurs? In my opinion, it is just some party to depreciate Pound and creating some market volatility atmosphere. No difference with previous Grexit, it is just like everything on schedule or well plan.
SURE, I believe Brexit could actually happen. Hell, if I were a Brit I would vote to get out of the European "union", which is an anti-democratic mistake. Europe is afflicted with a surplus of multiculturalist wingnut politicians - at least if they could be sequestered in their own little homelands, the damage they might do could be limited.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,230
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:22am Mar 3, 2016 2:22am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'll wait to see if by brexit referendum we can see the vix near 10 or below because historically that nearing the bottom and S/P may be floating around 2050-75 again that will be ideal scenario but in all honesty I think the UK will remain in the EU so there maybe a different catalyst make the VIX jump. I like to see consolidation near 10 on the VIX
that be the ideal scenario but it dozen't mean it has to get to them levels before volatility kicks in, IV will be the important thing to time this
  • #12,231
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:39am Mar 3, 2016 2:39am
GLD is at a crossroads if it can close above 120.00 then continuation in GOLD however if it closes below then I believe GLD/ GOLD are heading down

GOLD is around 1241 and GLD closed yesterday 118.68, will position myself accordingly
  • #12,232
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:41am Mar 3, 2016 2:41am
Cecil I am looking at some shorter term trades to catch a vol spike after the March FOMC. Nobody expects the Fed to do a rate rise in March, so it would be a big surprise if they did. JY has said, however, that they expected to do 4 x hikes in 2016, so it's not like there has not been fair warning.

Question is open as to whether a Mar rate hike would be seen as a bullish sign by the markets, as it (initially) was back in December....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,233
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:43am Mar 3, 2016 2:43am
Quoting Cecil Gee
GLD is at a crossroads if it can close above 120.00 then continuation in GOLD however if it closes below then I believe GLD/ GOLD are heading down GOLD is around 1241 and GLD closed yesterday 118.68, will position myself accordingly
CB divergence could (finally) get the USD to spike in strength again in the near future, and gold of course will sink under that influence, if that's what we get
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,234
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:46am Mar 3, 2016 2:46am
Quoting The Fool
Cecil I am looking at some shorter term trades to catch a vol spike after the March FOMC. Nobody expects the Fed to do a rate rise in March, so it would be a big surprise if they did. JY has said, however, that they expected to do 4 x hikes in 2016, so it's not like there has not been fair warning. Question is open as to whether a Mar rate hike would be seen as a bullish sign by the markets, as it (initially) was back in December....
tomorrows NFP especially unemployment rate may help the FED may have no choice but to raise as the pace of job creation and whole economy may start to imbalance the current policy
  • #12,235
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:49am Mar 3, 2016 2:49am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} CB divergence could (finally) get the USD to spike in strength again in the near future, and gold of course will sink under that influence, if that's what we get
T.F. do you have a reading on IV for the USD?
  • #12,236
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:53am Mar 3, 2016 2:53am
T.F. check out daily and weekly candle on UGAZ inverted hammer on both timeframes, very rare occurrence are heading for LONG gas
  • #12,237
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:00am Mar 3, 2016 3:00am
Quoting Cecil Gee
GLD is at a crossroads if it can close above 120.00 then continuation in GOLD however if it closes below then I believe GLD/ GOLD are heading down GOLD is around 1241 and GLD closed yesterday 118.68, will position myself accordingly
closes have to be by FRIDAYS close
  • #12,238
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:10am Mar 3, 2016 3:10am
Quoting Cecil Gee
T.F. do you have a reading on IV for the USD?
ivr for FXE is middle of the road - rather odd ivr trends on the chart I see - I would expect iv to increase as FXE falls......will be interesting to see if the USD can finally post the kind of strength market watchers have been expecting massive CB divergence would produce - as that divergence might grow even wider if the Fed will stay on track raising the ffr, maybe we will finally see fiber down to parity or below....?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-03_0105fxe.png Size: 121 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,239
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:19am Mar 3, 2016 3:19am
Quoting Cecil Gee
T.F. check out daily and weekly candle on UGAZ inverted hammer on both timeframes, very rare occurrence are heading for LONG gas
ZS and I were talking about nattygas up above a little ways - I am guessing UNG will keep dropping & maybe go into the $4.xx for a seasonal low. UGAZ will go lower also and will get a RS if ngas won't rally. I am wary of holding any leveraged etf's outright, as the SEC is considering new rulemaking that could shake up that whole equity space - many would be wiped out...I will post a link on that later, will be decided this year....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,240
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:52am Mar 3, 2016 3:52am
VIX Mar4 exp is 3/22, gives you a week post FOMC to catch a rise - a multi-strike vert will be spendy but could pay very well if there's a vol spike....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-03_0149vix.png Size: 72 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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