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  • #12,201
  • Mar 1, 2016 1:57pm Mar 1, 2016 1:57pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Added a SPY April 15th 205/209 short call spread for .61 on this BS upmove ... .
BS upmove? lol....no way Jose! SPY $205 will print in March.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,202
  • Mar 1, 2016 3:23pm Mar 1, 2016 3:23pm
Quoting The Fool
will try to fill a HYG Apr/Jun $84 call calendar - will be hard to fill with thin oi in that strike, but we'll see
hahaha tried to load at 2c & it started the day around 20c going up from there....I shoulda just bought calls.....well they're still there.

That HYG has been a pretty good leading indicator, up a 1% yesterday on a generally down day for equities was a tell.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,203
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:33pm Mar 1, 2016 4:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} BS upmove? lol....no way Jose! SPY $205 will print in March.....
You're probably right there ... . I just don't enjoy cleaning up messes and this up move may create a couple (who knows, there's two weeks plus until March opex and a lot of crap can happen between now and then). We'll cross that rickety bridge when we come to it ... .

On the other hand, it's going to allow me to bail on virtually every QQQ and SPY short put vertical I've got hanging out there in the March expiry for near max profit, so you gotta take the good with the bad ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,204
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:34pm Mar 1, 2016 4:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
One of the last "qualifying" (IVR @70+/IV @ 50+) earnings plays I will do this season: ANF March 11th 24.5/33.5 short strangle for a .98 credit. Announces earnings tomorrow before market open; glad this season's basically over. Need a little break ... .
God, it really helps to be able to read a calendar. ANF announces earnings on 3/2 after market open. It's all good; price barely budged in today's session ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,205
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:41pm Mar 1, 2016 4:41pm
VIX down 2.85 to 17.70 ... . With VIX at that level and only two issues appearing on the Dough TastyTrade Grid with IVR above 70 (ASHR -- ick; and (lo and behold), UNG), good time to take a break from selling premium, hand sit, dry powder out for the next lunge forward .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,206
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:33pm Mar 1, 2016 5:33pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} You're probably right there ... . I just don't enjoy cleaning up messes and this up move may create a couple (who knows, there's two weeks plus until March opex and a lot of crap can happen between now and then). We'll cross that rickety bridge when we come to it ... . On the other hand, it's going to allow me to bail on virtually every QQQ and SPY short put vertical I've got hanging out there in the March expiry for near max profit, so you gotta take the good with the bad ... .
yep, I have still Mar SPY $198/201 bear calls - not panicking yet - I had a lot more bull put spreads and I have been taking those off for 10c .... a run to $200 to close the week will see them all go....

....I am looking at trapping some vol in the week after the Mar FOMC, even though I think that's a long shot....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,207
  • Mar 1, 2016 11:25pm Mar 1, 2016 11:25pm
THESE long vol, UVXY call flys way out to June will get cheaper if UVXY keeps crashing ... the wider the better and the cheaper the better and June might be fine to catch June FOMC and/or mounting Brexit angst ....

The beauty of these is they will score nice profits over a huge range in any ^vix pop - you don't have to settle for a perfect finish near expiry day, the P/L looks good well in advance of that. Not cheap, but good r:r. If UVXY drops thru the floor and offers no sign of a rise as expiry comes near, you might be able to get something back taking the fly apart and selling calls in front of the low wing strike....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-01_2121uvxy.png Size: 83 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,208
  • Mar 2, 2016 1:50am Mar 2, 2016 1:50am
Quoting The Fool
THESE long vol, UVXY call flys way out to June will get cheaper if UVXY keeps crashing ...
...have the above bwb loaded for a 60c debit, might have a chance if the spoos keeps pushing up hump day

...I bought the Apr SVXY 45/46 call vert below for 18c on Monday - it posted a net double on today's move alone......if we rally further tomorrow I will have to take the money and run....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-01_2342svxy.png Size: 80 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,209
  • Mar 2, 2016 2:22am Mar 2, 2016 2:22am
I got in this YUM Feb/Apr $82.5/82 call diag over a month ago for around 20c.....I "knew" YUM would rebound and now here it comes.....the Feb $82.5 expired worthless and I'm left with the back Apr $85 calls...looking for a net 0ut 3x if YUM will push to $80 in the next week or so....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-02_0002yum.png Size: 81 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,210
  • Mar 2, 2016 2:40am Mar 2, 2016 2:40am
loaded a Jun HYG $84/85 calls bull vert for a nickel.....futures nudging down, won't be surprised to see a flattish or down day after the huge Super Tuesday rip......NFP Friday - I wonder if we see a beat will that stress market fears of a Mar rate hike....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,211
  • Mar 2, 2016 4:16am Mar 2, 2016 4:16am
Quoting The Fool
THESE long vol, UVXY call flys way out to June will get cheaper if UVXY keeps crashing ... the wider the better and the cheaper the better and June might be fine to catch June FOMC and/or mounting Brexit angst .... The beauty of these is they will score nice profits over a huge range in any ^vix pop - you don't have to settle for a perfect finish near expiry day, the P/L looks good well in advance of that. Not cheap, but good r:r. If UVXY drops thru the floor and offers no sign of a rise as expiry comes near, you might...
yes its a waiting game let it consolidate further down then take a 6 month call out on it for pennies, that what I'm waiting for. could take a while for that
  • #12,212
  • Edited 9:27am Mar 2, 2016 9:17am | Edited 9:27am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} God, it really helps to be able to read a calendar. ANF announces earnings on 3/2 after market open. It's all good; price barely budged in today's session ... .
Even though I jumped the gun one day early ... . Out at 50% max profit at NY open (a .49 debit), which will make it the last play of the season. The last one I was thinking about -- COST ... . Just can't get enough juice out of an iron condor, and don't feel like doing it "naked."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,213
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:21am Mar 2, 2016 9:21am
Quoting The Fool
I got in this YUM Feb/Apr $82.5/82 call diag over a month ago for around 20c.....I "knew" YUM would rebound and now here it comes.....the Feb $82.5 expired worthless and I'm left with the back Apr $85 calls...looking for a net 0ut 3x if YUM will push to $80 in the next week or so.... {image}
Two thumbs up on that one ... . The thing dawdled endlessly between $71 and $73, only to break suddenly higher in awesome fashion (along with the rest of the market). Still think it has opportunity to go even higher once they spin off YUM China ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,214
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:26am Mar 2, 2016 9:26am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yep, I have still Mar SPY $198/201 bear calls - not panicking yet - I had a lot more bull put spreads and I have been taking those off for 10c .... a run to $200 to close the week will see them all go.... ....I am looking at trapping some vol in the week after the Mar FOMC, even though I think that's a long shot....
Got one lonely QQQ bull put spread on in March, with price dancing around .10 for it today ... . Gimme gimme gimme ... . The QQQ short call verts aren't breached yet, but SPY's has a couple March spreads on that will require "downage" -- a 194/197 and a 197/200. I'd take only having to roll the 194/197 and consider myself lucky ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,215
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:31am Mar 2, 2016 9:31am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
VIX down 2.85 to 17.70 ... . With VIX at that level and only two issues appearing on the Dough TastyTrade Grid with IVR above 70 (ASHR -- ick; and (lo and behold), UNG), good time to take a break from selling premium, hand sit, dry powder out for the next lunge forward .... .
Speaking of that soul-sucking whore UNG (still in a covered call), price broke $6.00 ... . Rolled my short call down to the 6 strike for an additional credit and to reduce cost basis further. Only 20 more rolls for .35 credit a piece, and I'll have my cost basis reduced to $0.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,216
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:37am Mar 2, 2016 9:37am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} yes its a waiting game let it consolidate further down then take a 6 month call out on it for pennies, that what I'm waiting for. could take a while for that
watch those fotm calls in UVXY - you will see them getting bought as UVXY falls......you can't buy fotm UVXY calls for pennies, though - ever, even as ^vix craters....but, your idea is right: if you get in cheap and have enough time, you stand a chance of seeing those fotm calls appreciate.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,217
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:40am Mar 2, 2016 9:40am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Speaking of that soul-sucking whore
2016 seasonal low......omg.....$4.xx?.....buying shares in the game plan but how long you gonna live....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,218
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:43am Mar 2, 2016 9:43am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Speaking of that soul-sucking whore UNG (still in a covered call), price broke $6.00 ... . Rolled my short call down to the 6 strike for an additional credit and to reduce cost basis further. Only 20 more rolls for .35 credit a piece, and I'll have my cost basis reduced to $0.
Unfortunate thing is, as the price of the underlying decreases, so does the premium received for the short call to a point where it's just not worth it to sell the call absent huge IV in the underlying.

For example, I actually looked at doing (yet another) SUNE covered call because the premium being offered for the 2.5 was a whopping .50 or so. Not very often that you can reduce cost basis by 20-30% in a single swoop ... . Passed on the play, but even now you could buy 100 of SUNE at 1.59, sell the April 15 2 shortie for a .30 credit, reducing your cost basis to 1.29 per share ... . If you could get similar premium for AAPL, well, now that would be something ... . But SUNE's heading into the ground at a fairly high rate of speed.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,219
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:47am Mar 2, 2016 9:47am
Quoting The Fool
...have the above bwb loaded for a 60c debit, might have a chance if the spoos keeps pushing up hump day
pricing on these wide flys a real crap shoot....options prices on u/l UVXY jumping around, in the las 20 min I have watched the bwb debit bounce from 85c to $1.675....important to get in cheap and even 60c more than I want to pay....<50c be better.....patience....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,220
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:49am Mar 2, 2016 9:49am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . But SUNE's heading into the ground at a fairly high rate of speed.
....looks doomed to me, too many problems, crushing debt, crowded market, I never traded it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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