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  • #139,401
  • Mar 2, 2016 7:58am Mar 2, 2016 7:58am
Quoting sisse
Slightly better numbers than expected discounting the revision. Watch out floor in the Euro ...a tick below 1.083x for running soft stops with NY... sisse
Quoting Likerty
U/J showing signs of reversal. Still another low in to 111.60's is a possibility untill it sits bellow 112.20. Bulls are targeting 119.xx E/U wants 1.0850/10, but bullish correction is overdue... It should bounce before reaching 1.0920's
While U/J and Gold already fading news spike, E/U should fallow.. Inability to reverse before 1.08 opens 1.0770 where gates of hell (intraday/until NFP) could open with 1.0650;s in view (but to early to bet ont hese scenarios).

For now seems abit of USD weakness against these is brewing with gold wanting 1270's/ and U/J 113.20;s
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  • #139,402
  • Edited 9:04am Mar 2, 2016 8:16am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Thanks for your input on GBP. I figured I did miss the train. But, thought I could still play the SHORT, MID, LONG TERM LEGS since they are were aligning. It seems this currency might be a better play now. I know gator was looking for it to go UP more in the past when you were posting and since there were good arguments for both, I didn't jump on. I will track this and try a play to position as you suggested. Thanks for the insight and help! I am surprised the ADP numbers didn't push it down more or the EU for the NEWS flows.
I thank you as well, sisse, I did not pay so much attention to GBP/USD before - should have started much sooner however as u meantioned the GDP/USD play for this year many times - the price is that we missed the first train. Will track the map to join later.

*****

On ADP: from my abservations it seems the number usually is not such a big deal - seems market uses for hints on NFP. Nevertheless the ADP numbers have been solid for months oscilating along 200 and today is not exception + no strong deviation from expectation. Maybe it explain why it did not trigger any immediete flows. It more points to a direction for NY = continuation down.

*****

On E/U: this is my new map for the events (of course its gonna be much more messy on lower TF - but the turning points are important - thats where the price should sit for the event - lines are only estimate of the path there) as based on the conversations here and on the most likely scenarion - of course if there is suprise the map is not gonna apply:

* green is short term lvls, any other color is mid term

1. till NFP we crawl down to 1,080x.
=) solid NFP print but nothing extremelly superb/no flop
2. gives us extension to 1,073x and we come back to 1.080x to sit for ECB
=) ECB moves but not all in (we expect ECB to keep some part of the bazooka hidden, so they go for a cut or +QE)
3. immediete post-news reaction sends us quickly back to 1,073x and overshoots
=) markets reaction "sell the rumour, buy the news" cuz most of the ECB move is priced in
4. therefore pre-FED we come back up to 1,080x
=) FED is gonna remain neutral - maybe takes out the risks part of the statement as a hawkish sign given the financial/inflation development
5. and the short term correction will evolve as fas as 1,097x - the extend depending on FED position (dov/haw)

Trading play: if the events really evolve like this - most probable but definitely not sure - wait for post-ECB reaction and fade/play it up short term (prepositioning for FED) or wait for the short term top to play it mid term down any comments welcomed

Lol I wonder what sisse thinks about the map - maybe its completely wrong but I absolutely see as he says that "minions are gonna get burnt" - since they dont really account we trade expectations - if the events go as described (as expected I would say!!!) - completely can imagine minions jumping on board shorting around 1,073 post-ECB

P.S.: the biggest unknown/risk to the plan is FED in my view. Hawks are getting inflation so im not sure what the outcome is gonna be - if June FED is before Brexit referendum = not alive meeting I guess = falling behind curve?? Maybe July will do - since she can have press conference anytime lol
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  • #139,403
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:06am Mar 2, 2016 9:06am
chester123,

I applaud your take on this. Of course, the master has the final critique. But, it is all very plausible. However, I believe anything that tests and breeches the .0730 level will test the .0700 floor sending the MID TERM LEG in full force. I believe sisse referred to this as well if .0700 is taken.

On the GBP, I believe I missed that train more because I got to caught up in the EU play. But, GBP offers more Reward if one can get into the synch (as sisse said) of the move. I will just have to play the LEGS for the most part which may be tricky; but, I am thinking, if it moves in the MACRO direction, with proper leverage taken, that I could do well on this currency.

EU ticked below .0830 and DOLLAR hit 98.60 (actual 98.59XX) and bounced back today (sisse referenced). When sisse refers to FLOOR, is he referencing the .0730 area or .081X? I was inclined to think the .0800 handle would hold; however, if the DOLLAR takes out 98.60, we could be seeing the .0750-30 level today...????
  • #139,404
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:16am Mar 2, 2016 9:16am
Quoting IMARICH1
chester123, I applaud your take on this. Of course, the master has the final critique. But, it is all very plausible. However, I believe anything that tests and breeches the .0730 level will test the .0700 floor sending the MID TERM LEG in full force. I believe sisse referred to this as well if .0700 is taken. On the GBP, I believe I missed that train more because I got to caught up in the EU play. But, GBP offers more Reward if one can get into the synch (as sisse said) of the move. I will just have to play the LEGS for the most part which...
Yeah, I know what u talking about and he mentioned the lvl. But I would say that when he talked about 0,700 being taken and putting the mid term leg in motion - he meant on W1 and M1 TF so no intra day/intra weekly breaches - and that W1 or M1 takeover can happen definitely but from my perspective not in the scenario I oulined - in respect to the events, i.e. in can happen in case of super strong NFP and ECB pulliong out the whole bazooka (= -(-IR) + (++QE) so we have to see how the events go but I do not conside it to be the base scenation And I do not prefer it as its gonna be pain to trade - but market does not care about my preferences
  • #139,405
  • Mar 2, 2016 9:35am Mar 2, 2016 9:35am
Watch-out for OIL @33.7x.... It only needs a small sparkle to take the highs (macro stops sitting on the top of handle) for a +10% rally until the FED...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,406
  • Edited 11:05am Mar 2, 2016 10:53am | Edited 11:05am
Simple ride in OIL but not enough to break up while Euro couldn't take lows with Europe going home and bears starting to struggle on the lows. Equities in full control until NFP also looking uninterested to go any further until Friday ....

Not much to do here, no break no shake in Equities meaning chop on the making ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,407
  • Mar 2, 2016 1:00pm Mar 2, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting rioMario
{quote} USA keeps printing really strong numbers and we witnessed a rate move on friday NY session (dollar up, gold down, commodities currencies down). To sisse, do you think a march hike could be back in play? About the short term eurUsd up leg, I would consider joining a bounce on 1.081/2 area (if we will have one) to take short term long positions to play a weak NFP. {image}
longs in but absolutely not comfortable with it. trailing stop but hoping to keep a buffer to play NFP (targeting 1.094 - 1.111).

good luck everyone
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  • #139,408
  • Mar 2, 2016 1:09pm Mar 2, 2016 1:09pm
Quoting sisse
...

As usual in US elections ...GL for the rest of us who don't have a saying in this but always get affected when Americans make a bad [or a good] choice... sisse


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a6906741.html
  • #139,409
  • Mar 2, 2016 1:13pm Mar 2, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting chester123
{quote}
...
ECB moves but not all in (we expect ECB to keep some part of the bazooka hidden, so they go for a cut or +QE)
3. immediete post-news reaction sends us quickly back to 1,073x and overshoots =) markets reaction "sell the rumour, buy the news" cuz most of the ECB move is priced in 4. therefore pre-FED we come back up to 1,080x =)
thank you chester for the map.

I'm not so sure about this one. I think an ECB flop (cut only and no +QE) would send eurUsd higher also on the knee-jerk reaction. Maybe not the same reaction as it was December 3, but still 100/150 pips.
  • #139,410
  • Mar 2, 2016 1:45pm Mar 2, 2016 1:45pm
Eager equities bulls keep pushing in a hurry. When day seemed to be set for a chop US session, US Equities triggering imminent break up alerts for the closing session. Officially we have OIL (since yesterday)and Equities today on the verge of clean sweeps.

Markets set to clean the board before ECB/FED combo ...

Eyes on S&P 1980.xx as it will carry the rest of the board ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,411
  • Mar 2, 2016 3:26pm Mar 2, 2016 3:26pm
Surprise surprise ....not really ...bastards closing US Equities and OIL to the tick on key break out areas. No break no shake nothing to see for the roll in the FX board....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,412
  • Mar 2, 2016 3:32pm Mar 2, 2016 3:32pm
Chop on oil and EURUSD. New chances are being generated at GBPUSD. Could possibly go higher but I already have a position open at this moment as it lingers around D R2.
  • #139,413
  • Mar 2, 2016 3:35pm Mar 2, 2016 3:35pm
Quoting sisse
...bastards
At this point, I think only a surprise cut at the March FOMC stands in the way of a 2-3 month bull run for US equities....right up into the face of June FOMC + Brexit angst, etc....if all I did was try to fish long volatility, I might consider going on vacation until May Day....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,414
  • Edited Mar 3, 2016 3:23am Mar 2, 2016 3:46pm | Edited Mar 3, 2016 3:23am
Quoting ExForX
Chop on oil and EURUSD. New chances are being generated at GBPUSD. Could possibly go higher but I already have a position open at this moment as it lingers around D R2.
I wouldn't call chop a nearly +3% rally in OIL ...

Quoting The Fool
{quote} At this point, I think only a surprise cut at the March FOMC stands in the way of a 2-3 month bull run for US equities....right up into the face of June FOMC + Brexit angst, etc....if all I did was try to fish long volatility, I might consider going on vacation until May Day....
Not sure if we will have a proper run after the ECB/FED. Agree on the extreme Dovish HAWKISH FED as only potential party pooper short term but we are setting rather for a limited and bumpy pullback up ...

For now we just need to clear NFP and ECB (for the European equities push confirmation) first...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,415
  • Mar 2, 2016 3:55pm Mar 2, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I wouldn't call chop a nearly +3% rally in OIL ... {quote} Not sure if we will have a proper run after the ECB/FED. Agree on the extreme Dovish FED as only potential party pooper short term but we are setting rather for a limited and bumpy pullback up ... For now we just need to clear NFP and ECB (for the European equities push confirmation) first... sisse
Agreed. And the strong rally following weak data, clearly showing current sentiment - the market wants to pop higher and is (for now, anyway) totally willing to discount poor fundamentals.
  • #139,416
  • Mar 2, 2016 4:01pm Mar 2, 2016 4:01pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I wouldn't call chop a nearly +3% rally in OIL ...
Hmm yeah I see it differently. I watch the H1 chart and I see the zone between 33.50 and 34.50 as a congestion and ranging. Also today there were spikes that could easily wipe out weak hands. If we zoom out I see 34.5-35 as a point of interest (check 14-18/12). This support zone has clearnly turned into resistance so I'm not yet convinced a breakthrough will be easy.
  • #139,417
  • Mar 2, 2016 4:49pm Mar 2, 2016 4:49pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} {quote} For now seems abit of USD weakness against these is brewing with gold wanting 1270's/ and U/J 113.20;s
U/J was quick to finish its leg, seems like another go for 112.60's will fallow..
69
  • #139,418
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:03am Mar 3, 2016 2:03am
Quoting sisse
Not sure if we will have a proper run after the ECB/FED. Agree on the extreme Dovish FED as only potential party pooper short term but we are setting rather for a limited and bumpy pullback up ... For now we just need to clear NFP and ECB (for the European equities push confirmation) first... sisse
I don't know if NFP has what it takes to make the bots go wild anymore...I note that, with the S&P nudging at 2,000, we are m/l where we were 2 years ago - US equities have been flatlining for the last 2 years - S&P @ 2,000 +/- 150 or so, a real snoozefest and a deathknell for hedge funds of all stripes...it's about time for Something To Happen..... please....

In the above quote, are you saying a dovish March FOMC will be bearish for US equities? Idk, I'd guess the opposite, and if the Fed hikes in March and diverges further from the other CB's, that'd be enough to strengthen the USD enough to weigh on crude and commodities and, in turn, on equities. Well anyway, nobody expects the March FOMC to do anything at this point, and there is little in the fin press and from the talking Fed Heads themselves in the way of a build-up, .....just continuing good econ data points including telltale inflation indicators in the USA.....all suggesting to me I might risk some change on a binary event come the Ides of March, just in case there be a Surprise.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,419
  • Mar 3, 2016 2:16am Mar 3, 2016 2:16am
Quoting sisse
I wouldn't call chop a nearly +3% rally in OIL ...
(check your math: - $26 to $34 in 5-6 days was a ____% move)

the meat of the oil move was done in 5 td's beginning 2/11....since then a stall below $35 - time to shit or get off the pot, & I'd expect glut data to persist and some profit taking to close the week... unless I'm wrong, and I don't care that much, only have USO spreads out to July and even October, looking for wti $42 or better to make some money on oil this Summer.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,420
  • Mar 3, 2016 3:26am Mar 3, 2016 3:26am
Quoting The Fool
In the above quote, are you saying a dovish March FOMC will be bearish for US equities?...
Typo ...

"Agree on the extreme Dovish Hawkish FED as only potential party pooper short term but we are setting rather for a limited and bumpy pullback up"

Quoting The Fool
{quote} (check your math: - $26 to $34 in 5-6 days was a ____% move)
...was just referring about 3% only yesterday .... sure exactly my point, OIL has been everything but choppy the last few months ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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