Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade | Page 878 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

Learning to trade with harmonics 11 replies

Time for Change - Pivots & Harmonics to freedom 67 replies

180 reasons to trade Harmonics and Patterns 13 replies

Group Trading based on Elliott wave and Harmonics 0 replies

Attachments: Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
Exit Attachments

Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #17,541
  • Feb 29, 2016 3:36pm Feb 29, 2016 3:36pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Just have to be patient here bears trying but bulls are also trying to buy.
Mr. Pip

I was following your trades this morning on the YM and just could not understand why you thought the bears were in control when it was the opposite on a 5 min chart. Also, as i said last week. Crude oil is one big market driver. At the time of your entries to the short side Crude was in a bullish trend and the correlation was extremenly positive between all equities (YM, ES, NQ) and Crude. That's no big deal really but could not understand why you thought the bears were in control given that there were no NSL broken on the YM as far as i am concerned. I'd be curious to understand your early start. Thanks and great videos so far.
  • #17,542
  • Feb 29, 2016 4:02pm Feb 29, 2016 4:02pm
Quoting rocky
{image}
Awesome Rocky you killed it.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #17,543
  • Feb 29, 2016 4:16pm Feb 29, 2016 4:16pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Managing your trades aggressively is good but remember to give it space to move. Don't choke your trade or you will consistently find yourself trading with adverse risk reward.
I got too agressive there. Didnt have any structure to serve as a "target" and i really didnt give the trade any room.

Asmodai
  • #17,544
  • Feb 29, 2016 4:20pm Feb 29, 2016 4:20pm
Quoting crixus
{quote} Mr. Pip I was following your trades this morning on the YM and just could not understand why you thought the bears were in control when it was the opposite on a 5 min chart. Also, as i said last week. Crude oil is one big market driver. At the time of your entries to the short side Crude was in a bullish trend and the correlation was extremenly positive between all equities (YM, ES, NQ) and Crude. That's no big deal really but could not understand why you thought the bears were in control given that there were no NSL broken on the YM as...
Hello crixus, price had made a NSL on my chart. I don't care for correlation between what I'm trading and anything else. I don't feel for my trading that it makes much of a difference. I'm not at home at the moment so I can't get to a chart but my initial bias was bullish until the Bears produced a NSL and selling pressure and volume was increasing. Globally I was correct just way to early. The losses don't bother me at all if you still don't understand my trades today. Let me know and I will do my best to put something together
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #17,545
  • Feb 29, 2016 5:31pm Feb 29, 2016 5:31pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
BE to protect there is structure here {image}
Do you find you get to BE quicker after starting with a loss for the day? I seem to do this, in fact I do this all too often, happy to get to BE and will see it taken out before a profit target hit.

Guess this is a psychological challenge I need to get over, just hate giving away any pips.

Plus about 37 on the day, chart to follow...
  • #17,546
  • Feb 29, 2016 5:35pm Feb 29, 2016 5:35pm
Well here was a trade I took this morning on CADJPY 5M. I thought I had analyzed this ok, but not sure. I just finished going over it again, and not sure I would have done anything different. Anybody see something I missed ?

Trade breakdown : top left is high point of swing. yellow arrow is where I pulled the trigger, why? horizontal redline appeared to be a tough spot in between s/r boxes that price had trouble breaking through. 6 attempts and only once successful. even though from HL2, there was some weak momentum, it did still have bearish movement and finished with a strong NSL. HL3 was a .50 retracement of the previous swing so expectation was for a decent NSL. Even with a news announcement, price could not close above that redline, so when I got the price confirmation I was waiting for, I took it. I had originally set sl to just above resistance zone. when I left for work ( 2nd yellow arrow ) I moved sl to 7 pips above HL4, with my tp set at 1.27 fib ext. Longer redline is 1:1 of HL2 swing, and shorter redline is 1:1 of HL3 swing. Overall, trade was set for 18 pip sl, and 28 pip tp.. Looking forward to any criticisms or differing views
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (12).png Size: 196 KB
  • #17,547
  • Feb 29, 2016 5:52pm Feb 29, 2016 5:52pm
Quoting PipTrendz
{quote} Do you find you get to BE quicker after starting with a loss for the day? I seem to do this, in fact I do this all too often, happy to get to BE and will see it taken out before a profit target hit. Guess this is a psychological challenge I need to get over, just hate giving away any pips. Plus about 37 on the day, chart to follow...
I remove some risk if price is breaking down on me but I always get to a BE at the test of the structure I'm suppose to get past. I don't bring what happened in the previous trade into the next one.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #17,548
  • Feb 29, 2016 5:57pm Feb 29, 2016 5:57pm
Quoting vatordude
Well here was a trade I took this morning on CADJPY 5M. I thought I had analyzed this ok, but not sure. I just finished going over it again, and not sure I would have done anything different. Anybody see something I missed ? Trade breakdown : top left is high point of swing. yellow arrow is where I pulled the trigger, why? horizontal redline appeared to be a tough spot in between s/r boxes that price had trouble breaking through. 6 attempts and only once successful. even though from HL2, there was some weak momentum, it did still have bearish movement...
Your marking of the chart looks okay for me but I would not have taken the trade.

It looks like the big 3 in order flow are weakening. Projection on the last swing is a lot less than the previous swing, also the momentum is weakening in that final swing, plus look at the momentum on that correction (bulls are there in abundance). Also that correction is a lot deeper than the rest.

This is an issue I come up against a lot with my trading though (and hindsight is a great thing!!). With my limited chart time I can get into a trend nearing the end, so I make a big point of looking at OF. This has benefited me many times but also hindered me as the trend continues and creates NSL/H following a correction. I do prefer to stay out of these trades even with the possibility of losing out, as the thought of losing is greater.
  • #17,549
  • Feb 29, 2016 6:18pm Feb 29, 2016 6:18pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} I remove some risk if price is breaking down on me but I always get to a BE at the test of the structure I'm suppose to get past. I don't bring what happened in the previous trade into the next one.
I know I shouldn't but at the moment I am almost forcing it, in a more cautious way. I have been hit by my emotions too many times i.e. losing a trade or even 2 and getting into a trade too quickly. So now I am trying to do the opposite, even after one bad trade. I know this is almost second guessing my chart reading but in a way I am protecting myself from self destruct.

This is only a short term mentality (well this is the plan), revert to the opposite of what hurts and then work to a happy medium.

My trades

Trade 1 - Just before heading to work. In line with OF, following a strong Bear candle after finding resistance at previous support. Got in a little late but the candle after the strong bear was a non mover so entered there. Price went in my favor and then started bouncing back, locked in 6 pips as was setting off to work and could not monitor the trade, so was taken out quickly for 6 pips, still a win.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Feb - Trade 1.png Size: 50 KB


Trade 2 - Missed a few on the upside to the market due to work, so kept patient. Momentum was not exactly what I would want (strong bulls weaker bears), but a strong bear candle after finding some support around the 16660 was enough to enter with caution. Moved to BE quite quick and then manually exited at support level at the 16600 level. Did consider keeping the trade live and riding it down but was working late and didn't want to lose the pips I had waited all day for

+28 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th Feb - Trade 2.png Size: 51 KB


+34 on the day
  • #17,550
  • Feb 29, 2016 6:28pm Feb 29, 2016 6:28pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hello crixus, price had made a NSL on my chart. I don't care for correlation between what I'm trading and anything else. I don't feel for my trading that it makes much of a difference. I'm not at home at the moment so I can't get to a chart but my initial bias was bullish until the Bears produced a NSL and selling pressure and volume was increasing. Globally I was correct just way to early. The losses don't bother me at all if you still don't understand my trades today. Let me know and I will do my best to put something together
Thanks for replying however i see no new structure low. All i see is price forming a range (doing a pause) but still above a key zone that never got hit during the ascending movement. See screen capture:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM_expectation01.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #17,551
  • Feb 29, 2016 6:49pm Feb 29, 2016 6:49pm
Quoting crixus
{quote} Thanks for replying however i see no new structure low. All i see is price forming a range (doing a pause) but still above a key zone that never got hit during the ascending movement. See screen capture: {image}
Price made a NSL about 5 or 6 bars over it was pretty clear on the 233T if you want I will respond again to this in the morning to show better.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #17,552
  • Feb 29, 2016 6:55pm Feb 29, 2016 6:55pm
Quoting PipTrendz
{quote} Your marking of the chart looks okay for me but I would not have taken the trade. It looks like the big 3 in order flow are weakening. Projection on the last swing is a lot less than the previous swing, also the momentum is weakening in that final swing, plus look at the momentum on that correction (bulls are there in abundance). Also that correction is a lot deeper than the rest. This is an issue I come up against a lot with my trading though (and hindsight is a great thing!!). With my limited chart time I can get into a trend nearing the...
Thanks PipTrendz. I was wondering that, but when I compressed for the overall look, it looked like it was at the top side of a consolidation move its been in since the start of Feb. There was just over 100pips of downward movement available as the most recent overall swing had not yet had a .382 retracement. I am curious as to you seeing the weakness on the last swing. I only ask because the way I did it, I compared momentum from 1st leg down with 3rd leg down. I figured that would be my confirmation so wondering what I missed. Maybe I am just overthinking again..


Edit: Should be LH's in first chart, not HL's
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (13).png Size: 228 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (14).png Size: 204 KB
  • #17,553
  • Feb 29, 2016 9:46pm Feb 29, 2016 9:46pm
I had 3 breakevens and a small loss ($9.00 lol) . But, I noticed I was watching price like a hawk. IF I had just let it ride out like I did in backtesting, and let my stop loss be my stop loss (and not move to BE too early, even though my nature is to protect my captial), I would have had 1 trade on the day for a little more than a 2:1 profit. Hindsight and training to remove emotions. That's what today is for me. :-)

Quoting Mr. Pip
Just ugliness today. See it happens to all of us If I get taken out here I'm done for the day. {image}
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #17,554
  • Feb 29, 2016 9:49pm Feb 29, 2016 9:49pm
Same exact thing happened to me. My original trade this morning was spot on for expectation, I just should have let the expectation ride it out. :-) Belief is growing, and so will patience to weather the pullbacks.

Quoting Harmonic1976
I had to go away for a bit but this is how the EURUSD trade played out. Original Target would have been hit had I not closed out early. Also a second opportunity presented itself and even though the bulls gained momentum they hit a wall at resistance and was rejected immediately. If anything this post analysis helps build more belief and confidence in the methodology and trusting that the expectation is in fact a NSL. {image}
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #17,555
  • Mar 1, 2016 1:55am Mar 1, 2016 1:55am
Guys,

I am still not 100% sure whether I am seeing this correctly but I think there was a very nice opportunity to sell just gone on the YM.

Here is how I see it (please do correct me where anyone feels I may be swaying):

Momentum was even throughout as I see.
Projection, especially on the last leg down was small, hence we'd expect a deep pullback, which we got.

In addition, there was a compact local resistance level fusing nicely with the 78.6% Fibo level. Furthermore, a nice AB=CD pattern formed on approach and bar-to-bar analysis showed two very neat selling wicks at our entry point.

I am sorry if I am trying to steaming off ahead with the AB=CD patterns as I know we are not there yet. I just thought it might be worth a mention.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-01_14-55-05.jpg Size: 115 KB
  • #17,556
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:30am Mar 1, 2016 2:30am
Although momentum remains relatively strong here, depth has increased with the last leg printing a
deep pullback, testing the prior LH. The expectation is for a NSL but it seems there is a possibility that
a NSH may be on the horizon, breaking the overhead structure.

Anyone seeing the same or am I way off?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #17,557
  • Mar 1, 2016 3:24am Mar 1, 2016 3:24am
Hi all,

the attached EurGbp is having:
- very weak projection
- weaker correction
- decent momentum

even though the weakness is 1/3, the weak projection makes me expecting this pair to have a deep correction or retesting the LH.

is the below is what we should expecting?
1/3 weakness = shallow correction (0-38 fib zone)
2/3 weakness = mid correction (38-62 fib zone)
3/3 weakness = deep correction (62-100 fib zone)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPM15.png Size: 32 KB
  • #17,558
  • Mar 1, 2016 3:27am Mar 1, 2016 3:27am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E 03-16 (233 Tick) 01_03_2016_live trade.jpg Size: 162 KB
  • #17,559
  • Mar 1, 2016 3:30am Mar 1, 2016 3:30am
update: SL moved to BE
update: secured 11 pips (SL moved at 38.2% of the swing)
SL hit, for +11pips. I was a bit too greedy. Had I placed my TP at the first line of the zone (touch of the zone it would have been a 18 pip profit.
  • #17,560
  • Mar 1, 2016 3:34am Mar 1, 2016 3:34am
Quoting ujku80
{image}
6E is EU right???

I was watching the same but had to leave the PC for a while..... now i'm waiting for it to brake structure to the downside, pull back to structure and go down again for my entry.

Asmodai
11 traders viewing now