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AUD/USD

  • #95,781
  • Feb 28, 2016 3:23pm Feb 28, 2016 3:23pm
My Commitments of Traders Report is out


AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
AUDUSD buying continued into last week despite a negative price action. Daily charts suggest AUDUSD rebounded from the major resistance at 0.7230 and it looks very bearish for now.
COT data shows a different picture.
Non-Commercial traders became NET LONG in this market last week (as noted below).
This week they added another 5.7K long positions and covered 1K short contracts. This is after they added over 2.5K longs and covered over 5K shorts in the previous week.
This is the second week with Non-Commercials being NET LONG in Australian Dollar futures.
They now hold 72K long contracts vs 62K short positions. I would expect prices of Australian Dollar to increase in the coming weeks.

See last week’s note below
COT data shows non-commercial traders became NET LONG in AUD futures for the first time since April 2014. Historically, the price did not follow the bullish sentiment for long.
In July 2012, Non-commercial traders became net-long but the price didn’t follow through. It moved 1.0180 to make highs at 1.0580 and dived significantly sometime after.
Back in April 2014, AUDUSD moved sideways after Non-Commercials became Net long and dropped few weeks later.
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HumbleTraders
  • #95,782
  • Feb 28, 2016 4:18pm Feb 28, 2016 4:18pm
The never ending shorting opportunities of the aussie dollar really are an amazing thing
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  • #95,783
  • Feb 28, 2016 4:24pm Feb 28, 2016 4:24pm
http://news.forexlive.com/!/australi...-2015-20160228
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  • #95,784
  • Feb 28, 2016 4:42pm Feb 28, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting Dano12
http://news.forexlive.com/!/australi...-2015-20160228 {image} {image}
Dano, I struggle to interpret your charts. Can you tell me if I'm reading them right.

1HR- Oscillators look like they are bottoming, close to the 1250 extension. - possible retrace then down because of the the 4HR

4HR- Oscillators look like they have more room for downside. Price below your MA's so downtrending. room for a longer wave C to 1250 - 1618 extension
  • #95,785
  • Feb 28, 2016 5:51pm Feb 28, 2016 5:51pm
Quoting georgemoon
{quote} Dano, I struggle to interpret your charts. Can you tell me if I'm reading them right. 1HR- Oscillators look like they are bottoming, close to the 1250 extension. - possible retrace then down because of the the 4HR 4HR- Oscillators look like they have more room for downside. Price below your MA's so downtrending. room for a longer wave C to 1250 - 1618 extension
1 hour support, you can interpret this as a double top, and the possible test support and h4 1,61 fib
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  • #95,786
  • Feb 28, 2016 8:25pm Feb 28, 2016 8:25pm
short at .7126 SL.7166
  • #95,787
  • Feb 28, 2016 8:38pm Feb 28, 2016 8:38pm
China stock market collapse again,4% down this morning. AUDUSD is under pressure.
  • #95,788
  • Feb 29, 2016 1:41am Feb 29, 2016 1:41am
AUDUSD: 30min – 4h – Daily view
Aussie continued higher towards 0.7260 during past week’s trading. After reaching a major resistance at 0.7260, it collapsed and closed the week at 0.7130. This was mainly due to a positive data out of US market last Friday.
At daily charts AUDUSD printed a massive engulfing candle closing below the previous four sessions. This is a good bearish signal. Stochastics are overbought and favour short setups.
Looking at lower time frames, Aussie failed to climb above the recent high of 0.7260 and formed double top. After rejecting the resistance, it closed below the recent higher high (marked 5 at the chart below).
This is an indication of more downwards pressure.
I expect some form of pullback before considering short positions.
It seems like 0.7180 could be a good short entry. This is after AUDUSD printed lower low and pulled back to the previous resistance.
If 0.7180 is broken and the price continues higher, bulls could wait for new higher high and enter around 0.7230.
Overall, I think the downside is limited here and AUDUSD is long term bullish bet.
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HumbleTraders
  • #95,789
  • Feb 29, 2016 2:57am Feb 29, 2016 2:57am
Like this to be the first leg down, let it stay within a 40 pip range and build a flag then down another 100+ pips
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #95,790
  • Feb 29, 2016 3:30am Feb 29, 2016 3:30am
Quoting MustafaKhlid
China stock market collapse again,4% down this morning. AUDUSD is under pressure.

I cant believe my eyes, with China stock market closed at 3% lower the Iron future rise about 2% in China!

Thats strange, cos steel industry has not improved a little bit, they r still bleeding. Someone must put false hope on that government gonna further ease yuan and establish new construction projects. But devalue of yuan will only turn steel manufactures to domestic iron ore suppliers,which is not good for AUD.

In long term, AUDUSD is still strong bearish.
  • #95,791
  • Feb 29, 2016 7:34am Feb 29, 2016 7:34am
entered abit earlier than expected at 71180 still in the trade going hold till 61.8%
  • #95,792
  • Feb 29, 2016 12:20pm Feb 29, 2016 12:20pm
Complex correction (4) carries on within an ending diagonal (c).
Now trending down towards 0.6950 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #95,793
  • Feb 29, 2016 3:36pm Feb 29, 2016 3:36pm
Quoting Flieldel
I suppose that the price will turn after reaching the 0.71324 level. {image}
As I see it at the moment from technical point of view.
First graph is 4 hours, numbers are targets, after breaking the support.
Also H4 and D1 graphs correlates neatly with each other. D1 kinda confirms upcoming support breaking.
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Rookie
  • #95,794
  • Feb 29, 2016 6:41pm Feb 29, 2016 6:41pm
AUD .7130

Once again bad numbers coming out of Australia.
Surely the RBA must act and cut rates to ward off a recession but they still have concern over the fear of inflation which every other nation wants to have but ours CB is scared of.

Property is now Australia's biggest industry but how long can that last?
Imagine the situation without it

Lets see what China's data has to offer .. if you ever believe the accuracy.
  • #95,795
  • Feb 29, 2016 10:23pm Feb 29, 2016 10:23pm
samll setup for aussie , waiting for 7228 to short without +7257 ...
  • #95,796
  • Feb 29, 2016 11:08pm Feb 29, 2016 11:08pm
Quoting Shved
Still look down with hope for the continuation of the movement {image}
I'm with you
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #95,797
  • Feb 29, 2016 11:11pm Feb 29, 2016 11:11pm
An interesting article for anyone interested in why $ strength is likely to continue for sometime even if the Fed doesn't raise rates again.

These emerging economies net outflows (first since the 1980's) are going somewhere. Mainly China and US.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/69e98...#axzz41ck51XHk

And on a slightly less important note, keep in mind also that other economies are still cutting rates or at best stagnant (some even in negative rate territory) while US is tightening.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #95,798
  • Mar 1, 2016 12:16am Mar 1, 2016 12:16am
Quoting Ill-b-back
An interesting article for anyone interested in why $ strength is likely to continue for sometime even if the Fed doesn't raise rates again. These emerging economies net outflows (first since the 1980's) are going somewhere. Mainly China and US. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/69e98...#axzz41ck51XHk And on a slightly less important note, keep in mind also that other economies are still cutting rates or at best stagnant (some even in negative rate territory) while US is tightening.
Thanks for sharing the link but FYI it says it's for premium content subscribers only.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #95,799
  • Mar 1, 2016 12:50am Mar 1, 2016 12:50am
Quoting dab
{quote} Thanks for sharing the link but FYI it says it's for premium content subscribers only.
that's odd, I accessed it for free straight from the net and I don't subscribe to it. I even check the link once I posted it to make sure it worked.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #95,800
  • Mar 1, 2016 12:54am Mar 1, 2016 12:54am
Quoting dab
{quote} Thanks for sharing the link but FYI it says it's for premium content subscribers only.
ok interesting, now I can't access it either
Come with me if you want to live....
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