Another interesting fact that can benefit RUB, read below. So if any of the two - oil or gold - improve then we should see interesting strengthening of the RUB. http://sputniknews.com/business/2016...uble-gold.html
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For now it looks like Gold is going back down but oil could possibly be going back up. If war breaks out in Syrian between Russia,Syria,Turkey and Saudi Arabia then oil will have a nice run up
{quote} For now it looks like Gold is going back down but oil could possibly be going back up. If war breaks out in Syrian between Russia,Syria,Turkey and Saudi Arabia then oil will have a nice run up
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agreed. And during uncertain times Gold also tends to rise. Today Gold is going down as a retracement to a huge move, to put things in the right perspective. I hope no war breaks out between the big powers because this is not good for anyone but for sure any kind of uncertainty would push both commodities up.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
For anyone who trades USDRUB: My next support levels for USDRUB are 75.04 on the daily and 74.90 on the H4. If it breaks these next support is at 72 and change and then below 70.
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Is this the beginning of the RUB recovery? or are we looking at a temporary surge in the RUB because of the OPEC rumors?
{quote} Is this the beginning of the RUB recovery? or are we looking at a temporary surge in the RUB because of the OPEC rumors?
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As the fate of the RUB is closely connected to oil at the moment (meaning no action from central bank etc) I would say that it is partly a temporary reaction but the fact is that certain technical levels will hold. Especially in the absence of fundamental follow-up. My levels are medium/long term.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
{quote} As the fate of the RUB is closely connected to oil at the moment (meaning no action from central bank etc) I would say that it is partly a temporary reaction but the fact is that certain technical levels will hold. Especially in the absence of fundamental follow-up. My levels are medium/long term.
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But as far as I am concerned the recovery has started.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
{quote} But as far as I am concerned the recovery has started.
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its a tough entry I feel, because one could just keep getting stopped out for six months straight before the RUB starts its decent back into the 50 range...so annoying. But doesn't change the fact this carry is worth it. while there's always unforeseen challenges that happen, it is almost clear across the board expected the RUB will balance against the dollar as low as the historic 30, to a more conservative 55 following oil. either way, theres very few carrys out there with this kind of great setup in both technical and fundamentals, unless I'm really missing something here? and believe me, I'm more than willing to accept I am missing something big here.
{quote} its a tough entry I feel, because one could just keep getting stopped out for six months straight before the RUB starts its decent back into the 50 range...so annoying. But doesn't change the fact this carry is worth it. while there's always unforeseen challenges that happen, it is almost clear across the board expected the RUB will balance against the dollar as low as the historic 30, to a more conservative 55 following oil. either way, theres very few carrys out there with this kind of great setup in both technical and fundamentals, unless...
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This is a long term trade (I would give it a year), so you have to allow time as well as need to have low leverage because you need to allow for space. You also need to take into account the increased volatility lately in the markets, so yes there will be swings. I would say at these levels you have to be able to stomach adverse swings of 5-6 rubles. But your entry in my mind at these levels is great, and the long term profit is 25 rubles. And obviously the carry is great. You will be making money all the way.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
Joined Nov 2014
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Status: Very Important Member
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Btw, I checked the carry trades against ZAR and MXN and cannot compare to the RUB. This is an answer to an earlier post about ZAR. And the fundamentals for ZAR and MXN are just not there. The russian economy is well managed and beyond the price of oil there are no other structural problems.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
........The russian economy is well managed and beyond the price of oil there are no other structural problems.
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This statement is either extremely naive, or purposely misleading. Anyone who pays even a passing attention to the state of Russian economy will tell you that Russian state is almost entirely depends on oil and gas. They do not produce anything beside those two, and with sanctions in place and total destruction of small and mid size business, the only place Russian economy will go, is a state of complete collapse.
{quote} This statement is either extremely naive, or purposely misleading. Anyone who pays even a passing attention to the state of Russian economy will tell you that Russian state is almost entirely depends on oil and gas. They do not produce anything beside those two, and with sanctions in place and total destruction of small and mid size business, the only place Russian economy will go, is a state of complete collapse.
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Aside from oil and gas are weapons and fighter jets. Not sure how well those are selling for them at the moment.
{quote} This statement is either extremely naive, or purposely misleading. Anyone who pays even a passing attention to the state of Russian economy will tell you that Russian state is almost entirely depends on oil and gas.
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I think it's more correct to say, "anyone who listens to biased Western media". The Russian economy is very diversified, and the currency devaluation has created a boom for many export facing sectors of the economy.
I am personally paying attention to what the big boys are doing so far as picking a bottom.
{quote} I think it's more correct to say, "anyone who listens to biased Western media". The Russian economy is very diversified, and the currency devaluation has created a boom for many export facing sectors of the economy. I am personally paying attention to what the big boys are doing so far as picking a bottom.
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Diversified? You got to be joking. Tell you what, I know Russia from inside, so do have an inkling of what I'm talking about. Now, you on the other hand .........
{quote} This statement is either extremely naive, or purposely misleading. Anyone who pays even a passing attention to the state of Russian economy will tell you that Russian state is almost entirely depends on oil and gas. They do not produce anything beside those two, and with sanctions in place and total destruction of small and mid size business, the only place Russian economy will go, is a state of complete collapse.
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I think that you should stop listening to ABC news and the western media and start doing some research. And noone told you to invest in RUB. I dont need to prove anything to anyone as I put my money where my mouth is and I have done very well. But to explain for anyone who cares, beyond natural resources, etc, a country needs good management. Look at the African continent. Full of natural wealth but horribly mismanaged. And I did mention in earlier posts that the fate of RUB is closely associated with the price of oil, so this relationship is long established. So yes the Russian economy depends on oil but you can still stir it clear of collapse in the face of a 70% collapse in the price of oil. There you need good managers and I dont want to speak about political leader but the central bank has done a good job, unlike most western world central banks.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
{quote} Diversified? You got to be joking. Tell you what, I know Russia from inside, so do have an inkling of what I'm talking about. Now, you on the other hand .........
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I have the feeling that you attack anyone who has something positive to say about the Russian economy. Are you one of the oligarchs that fell out of favor with the political leaders and lost everything?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
{quote} Diversified? You got to be joking. Tell you what, I know Russia from inside, so do have an inkling of what I'm talking about. Now, you on the other hand .........
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Hey there.
I see you feel there's something to be said about the economics on Russia. but please, dude, your post is tending to sound a little bit like flaming the poster instead of actively engaging the debate/ideas. what's you're logic on Russia's economics? or alternatively, perhaps, where are your opinions coming from, news wise, or source wise? anything we as a group can discuss and share in terms of ideas is always helpful to the topic. but just insisting a poster is simply not informed or smart doesn't really accomplish anything to the thread. not trying to criticize your delivery method, just trying to get you talking more about the why's and how's.
So, in a few forecast articles, I've personally seen most European and North American based info has pointed to sentiment that Russia is stabilizing economically speaking, but the Rub is low currently mainly on the Oil situation, but now that Ukraine has managed to stabilize this year, helping to ameliorate worries of conflict issues hitting the Rub this year. And as Oil recovers late this year, so too should the Rub. Are you thinking otherwise?
Anyone using LMAX broker for the USD/RUB in UK? If so, have you had trades on this pair suspended untill about 7:30 am this morning?
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Not I bud. I am still looking for a broker that, as a Canadian, would be good fit for me. While this is a very attractive Carry trade this year, if I don't have a solid broker behind the deal, its not worth much unfortunately.
Anyone using LMAX broker for the USD/RUB in UK? If so, have you had trades on this pair suspended untill about 7:30 am this morning?
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I dont have experience with LMAX broker but the truth is that the USD/RUB pair stops trading from 5:30 pm CET to 8:10 am the next morning. It is logical that your broker would suspend trading although I have seen brokers that let it "trade" till later but usually not overnight. I hope that answers your question
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
