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  • #139,321
  • Feb 26, 2016 7:05am Feb 26, 2016 7:05am
Sisse, it helps a lot! Many thanks!!!
  • #139,322
  • Feb 26, 2016 7:11am Feb 26, 2016 7:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I believe I mentioned this a few time already and I think you are underestimating the Game Changer in play: Europe / EU disintegration. These are the dark clouds aligning in order of importance and weight: The Brexit referendum is triggering a MAJOR uncertainty play until is clear. The threat of the biggest trading block in the world, the second largest economy (GDP), and richest consumer market in the world descending into chaos and unilateral protectionist "beggar-thy-neighbour" environment will be devastating for the world economy. Despite...
thank you sisse.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #139,323
  • Feb 26, 2016 7:19am Feb 26, 2016 7:19am
Eyes on the last report of the month. Direct play expected but more importantly monthly close flows expected pre FED/ECB combo so any number outside of the mean could send shockwaves. Expecting minions and soft hands getting hammered in the next few sessions as we clear the choppy range....

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,324
  • Feb 26, 2016 7:30am Feb 26, 2016 7:30am
Thank you very much! In light of your thoughtful and insight, Gold will be up up.
  • #139,325
  • Feb 26, 2016 7:34am Feb 26, 2016 7:34am
Important overshoot....Watch-out the floor in Euro and the roof in Equities for NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,326
  • Feb 26, 2016 8:22am Feb 26, 2016 8:22am
Euro ticking below the current lows right on time for NY ... Lots of key levels in play for the W/M close across most instrument for the ECB/FED combo.

First in play, tracking European equities close. DAX holding 955x.x will give strong signals for the preemptive QE ECB play so expecting a soft opening range until Europe goes home when US markets will take full control ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,327
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:09am Feb 26, 2016 9:09am
Those are some updeat US data today - GDP + PCE but the rest too!

P.S.: thanks sisse for the complex explanation. I constantly keep underestimating that crazy Brexit!!!
  • #139,328
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:21am Feb 26, 2016 9:21am
DAX is not holding the .955XX nor the .9500 handle so far.....perhaps, NY will tell the tale; but, looking as we may be in a chop zone until NFP or ECB. Range bound from .0945 to .1144? Any thoughts?

EU holding the .097X is something I am looking for......
  • #139,329
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:26am Feb 26, 2016 9:26am
Quoting IMARICH1
DAX is not holding the .955XX nor the .9500 handle so far.....perhaps, NY will tell the tale; but, looking as we may be in a chop zone until NFP or ECB. Range bound from .0945 to .1144? Any thoughts? EU holding the .097X is something I am looking for......
US Equities barely held the break up on the opening range but held at the end. There is no point in holding short term longs Euro any longer. A tick below until the European close unlock the lows of the handle (1.097x -> 1.091x -> 1.080x play till NFP)....

All eyes on the DAX for the european close....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,330
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:32am Feb 26, 2016 9:32am
sisse,

Elementary question....a tick below? .097X? London opening range on DAX, US Equities or EU? Thanks
  • #139,331
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:34am Feb 26, 2016 9:34am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} never say never {image}
That chart just got a lot uglier

I'd imagine a tick below 1.0713 low will snowball (next month). Same with 1.0521
  • #139,332
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:35am Feb 26, 2016 9:35am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Elementary question....a tick below? .097X? London opening range on DAX, US Equities or EU? Thanks
A tick below the current intraday lows in Euro .... US Equities held the NY opening range.... DAX in play for the european close (+/- 1 hour) ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,333
  • Feb 26, 2016 9:39am Feb 26, 2016 9:39am
Quoting chester123
Those are some updeat US data today - GDP + PCE but the rest too! P.S.: thanks sisse for the complex explanation. I constantly keep underestimating that crazy Brexit!!!
US economy keeps printing strong data but I can not stop thinking that

1. Hikes in March have been nearly clearly postponed by JY in January because of the worldwide risk
2. That risk will be still there in June . And moreover uncertainty may be at its maximum in June with the imminence of the brexit referendum.
3. ECB is expected to hammer euro in the upcoming months ; a double hammer through fed hikes may put dollar at unhealthy level for US economy

So if US inflation allows it, first window to hike may be only in September.

Good week-end all, thanks for all the didactics posts !!
  • #139,334
  • Feb 26, 2016 10:10am Feb 26, 2016 10:10am
Quoting sisse
...longer. A tick below until the European close unlock the lows of the handle (1.097x [check] -> 1.091x [check]-> 1.080x play till NFP)....
A simple and direct ride after the strong GDP numbers. Well done all that played the reverso (or even better the early signal in the european morning session). 1.091x target cleared ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,335
  • Edited 11:10am Feb 26, 2016 10:19am | Edited 11:10am
Great MAP and call sisse!

It didn't appear to me DAX was was going to hold the .9500 handle. Good warning on EU Longs short term. I closed my LONG at .1060 per earlier post. I entered Short at .0941 and played to .0913.

Retrace back to .097X? I have my 267MA right there as well?Looking to position there. But, it may just be a direct flight after some sort of retrace to .0806 or your MAP level as you hinted to another Floor being hit in EU. Figured LONDON would take it there if expecting NY to play it there. A healthy bounce of 50-70 pips is a good sign of an impt level being reached unless that trading tip I received long ago is wrong.

It appears the cheaper seats may not be available now as once thought unless I am wrong. But, it appears MID TERM LEG has begun unless NFP is the MAIN signal and then ECB to follow.

I had better seats prior; but, I had to close my positions early not knowing what Market wanted to do again. It appeared we were looking for another ride to the .114X or .124X levels until today and didn't want to hold onto these seats.0920, .0940 ect)I had from a month or so ago due to how market was behaving. I still have made profit on all of this. Just not what one would call good trading at all.

Still learning as we go!
  • #139,336
  • Feb 26, 2016 10:49am Feb 26, 2016 10:49am
Quoting IMARICH1
.... It appears the cheaper seats may not be available now as once thought unless I am wrong. ...
There are and will be cheap tickets available we are just closing the monthly flows....

Europe going home with European equities shy by a few points on making a decisive signal. However, we are aligning for a very strong monthly close in Equities across the world. For now eyes on next round of markets with OIL leading commodities. Oil holding $32.7x for the W/M roll is the one to track with strong momentum on a break $33.8x to unlock the extension.

While GOLD holding 1180x (pretty much a done deal) unlocks the zigzag play for March....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,337
  • Feb 26, 2016 10:50am Feb 26, 2016 10:50am
Quoting IMARICH1
Great MAP and call sisse! It didn't appear to me DAX was was going to hold the .9500 handle. Good warning on EU Longs short term. I closed my LONG at .1060 per earlier post. I entered Short at .0941 and played to .0913. Retrace back to .097X? I have my 267MA right there as well?Looking to position there. But, it may just be a direct flight to .0806 or your MAP level as you hinted to another Floor being hit in EU. Figured LONDON would take it there if expecting NY to play it there. It appears the cheaper seats may not be available now as once...
I think its still not so sure. However, if we talk about cheap seats, even sisse mentioned that they are here unless 1,097x is taken - so for that case we need to see the W1 a Monthly close.

In any case - even though Im not in DAX or US500 I think those are the keys as sisse points out to track them. Because this W close may determine if we see lows/lower low short term. Another round of risk-off and E/U may invite us for 2nd round of cheap seats!
  • #139,338
  • Feb 26, 2016 10:52am Feb 26, 2016 10:52am
Quoting primejarvis
I don't know why but why I see a test of.08xx is in play... Offcoourse not today ... Please correct me if I m wrong
So a test is almost confirmed ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,339
  • Edited 11:11am Feb 26, 2016 10:56am | Edited 11:11am
sisse would be proud of you chester123! You answered similar to sisse's response! Good job in seeing market clearer!

If 32.7X goes in OIL; then, I am presuming RISK-OFF and EU could climb higher (.097x would be taken)? I am just trying to see where to position for the ride to my level .0806 that seems to always attract the Price!

Thanks sisse for updates!
  • #139,340
  • Feb 26, 2016 11:25am Feb 26, 2016 11:25am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse would be proud of you chester123! You answered similar to sisse's response! Good job in seeing market clearer! If 32.7X goes in OIL; then, I am presuming RISK-OFF and EU could climb higher (.097x would be taken)? I am just trying to see where to position for the ride to my level .0806 that seems to always attract the Price! Thanks sisse for updates!
haha, Imarich, it sounds so sweet but so away from truth but..... one day!!! At least Im determined if nothing else
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