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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,301
  • Feb 25, 2016 10:00am Feb 25, 2016 10:00am
This thread is just not the same when sisse doesn't frequent it.

At any rate, I took a Long (Short Term Leg) at .0998 handle on the LL put in today around NY opening. Targeting .1060/.80. Still looking for another LL (.0950/4X) before this Short Term Leg heads North for the Final Leg up before MID TERM LEG "kicks" in.

Oil is challenging the 31.00 handle today as well!

This is my trade; this my design...................trying to come up with something catchy like sisse...."same levels, same trades, same all".....Lol
  • #139,302
  • Feb 25, 2016 11:09am Feb 25, 2016 11:09am
Quoting IMARICH1
This thread is just not the same when sisse doesn't frequent it. At any rate, I took a Long (Short Term Leg) at .0998 handle on the LL put in today around NY opening. Targeting .1060/.80. Still looking for another LL (.0950/4X) before this Short Term Leg heads North for the Final Leg up before MID TERM LEG "kicks" in. This is my design and my trade...................
I guess he remains silent because there's not anything to say really. At most "same levels, same trades, same all".

*edit: just read your edit, I guess we're on the same wavelength.
  • #139,303
  • Feb 25, 2016 11:27am Feb 25, 2016 11:27am
ExForX,

Hope Trading is going well for you! Yes, I am sure you are right about sisse. Its just nice to see a post from him even if its just that slogan of his!

And, for him to rip me a new one if I am way off base or did something idiotic like taking a LONG at the .0998 handle....Was looking to take one at .0988 and didn't get in it in time. Still looking for a .0950/48 level to trade another LONG for short term leg especially with OIL looking to find a double bottom or the bottom SHORT, MID and LONG term.
  • #139,304
  • Feb 25, 2016 11:52am Feb 25, 2016 11:52am
Quoting IMARICH1
This thread is just not the same when sisse doesn't frequent it..
If you dont have anything relevant or intelligent to say ...

This thread is not about me is about real market talk by real people ...make it yours, increase the level of discussion, you may be surprised how many smart people are sometimes quietly lurking around ...

---- ----

In any case, a very dull day across the board but we have a MAJOR weekly close on the making in Sterling. Cable losing 1.437x in the M will not only align long,mid and short term in STRONG sell in imminent break down but it will unlock one of the most (if not the most) powerful legs we have witnessed in the FX board in this century ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,305
  • Feb 25, 2016 12:08pm Feb 25, 2016 12:08pm
yes, I realize I dumb this thread down and its not about you; but, its nice just seeing you here regardless...but point taken! Just appreciate you!

At any rate, it appears I may want to be looking more at this Sterling SWING now. Thanks for sharing. I know you discussed this at the very beginning of the New Year as the most reliable and best currency to trade this year for most of the duration of this year. Thanks for the updates.

Also, I have looked at the M on the USD/GBP and don't see 437X as the most influential level. Is this a FA or FA/TA level? I see 427X being a stronger level from a TA perspective and .3501 being the last of the last for a FLOOR or support.


All the best!
  • #139,306
  • Feb 25, 2016 12:32pm Feb 25, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting IMARICH1
yes, I realise I dumb this thread down and its not about you; but, its nice just seeing you here regardless...but point take,,,I have looked at the M on the USD/GBP and don't see 437X as the most influential level. Is this a FA or FA/TA level? I see 427X being a stronger level from a TA perspective and .3501 being the last of the last for a FLOOR or support. All the best!
...what i meant is i don't make comments if there is nothing to add .... it came across a bit rude but the comment wasn't towards you ....

Quote
..USD/GBP and don't see 437X as the most influential level. Is this a FA or FA/TA level? I see 427X being a stronger level from a TA perspective and .3501 being the last of the last for a FLOOR or support. All the best!

Those are MAJOR macro levels that may be outside of your usual view. On the long and mid term 1.437x is steel Fundamental Support from the 1985 Crisis and later from the Lehman Collapse /Financial Crisis in 2008. On the short term is TA support on last break out with momentum on Brexit Referendum ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,307
  • Feb 25, 2016 12:41pm Feb 25, 2016 12:41pm
sisse,

I knew what you meant! All is well. I just meant what I meant about me dumbing this thread down a bit if or when I post. I can call a spade a spade. Lol

Thanks for the info on GBP. I have been watching it and thought about seeing if PA would come back and test the 4270 level for a a position but it has not shown that way. I see now why .437X is more impt. I would rather position around .4270 but not sure if we will see a fade to this level. I know gator was looking at a higher level at one time on GBP and I just shy'd away from it since this currency is usually very problematic for me. However, I know you said this will be easy currency to trade when the LEG begins and may already have if we get that MONTHLY close you referred too. Thanks for the info on it.

Edit: I was watching OIL attack the 31.XX handle today and it shot up 140 points to 32.5x. Any news?
  • #139,308
  • Feb 25, 2016 12:59pm Feb 25, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting IMARICH1
ExForX, Hope Trading is going well for you!
Sure, I mean could be better but still I can't complain. My trading isn't as bad as it used to be. My equity curve had a shallow "retracement" if you will... Now I seem to be back on track (still have to crack my highest high though). I've have been noticing a pattern in oil, look at the times. At NY open it usually inverses direction. Has been helping me gain back some losses. It's especially visible in the one hour charts.
  • #139,309
  • Feb 25, 2016 1:06pm Feb 25, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Very decent day here with OIL clearing main target on the breach to the the 33.xx handle. Oil holding 32.7x for the M close (I doubt as per weekend news from Europe) will unlock the extension $42.5x. As long as US equities hold on the highs, managing very tightly positions before closing all. On the rest of the board a rather dull US session... sisse
Sisse how it is looking with OIL? thanks
  • #139,310
  • Feb 25, 2016 3:05pm Feb 25, 2016 3:05pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} If you dont have anything relevant or intelligent to say ... This thread is not about me is about real market talk by real people ...make it yours, increase the level of discussion, you may be surprised how many smart people are sometimes quietly lurking around ... ---- ---- In any case, a very dull day across the board but we have a MAJOR weekly close on the making in Sterling. Cable losing 1.437x in the M will not only align long,mid and short term in STRONG sell in imminent break down but it will unlock one of the most (if not the most)...
never say never
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  • #139,311
  • Edited 11:24pm Feb 25, 2016 11:05pm | Edited 11:24pm
Sisse, when you have a moment I would like to ask for your FA on the Chinese Yuan if I may?

I don't understand why the Chinese government wants to keep the Yuan pegged to the USD. Isn't this the cause of the slowdown they are currently experiencing?

The peg used to be in the 8-9CNY range per USD. With the heavy devaluation of the USD in the past decade or so, China was eventually forced to adjust the rate to 6.xx. Now, years later and the USD has recovered and surged ~30-40%+ against most major currencies, yet the Chinese government is still hanging onto the same 6.xx peg. What purpose does this serve? In a slowing economy every CB in the world would want their currency to devaluate wouldn't they? This must be killing their export industry? And surely the capital outflows must be enormous.

From my basic understanding, they are currently selling their massive USD reserves to artificially prop up the local stock market. This doesn't seem like a brilliant long term strategy. Why can't they let nature take it's course?

The Yuan looks like the short of the century at the moment. How much longer can they afford to keep it so strong?
  • #139,312
  • Feb 26, 2016 1:43am Feb 26, 2016 1:43am
Quoting diggo
Sisse, when you have a moment I would like to ask for your FA on the Chinese Yuan if I may? I don't understand why the Chinese government wants to keep the Yuan pegged to the USD. Isn't this the cause of the slowdown they are currently experiencing? The peg used to be in the 8-9CNY range per USD. With the heavy devaluation of the USD in the past decade or so, China was eventually forced to adjust the rate to 6.xx. Now, years later and the USD has recovered and surged ~30-40%+ against most major currencies, yet the Chinese government is still hanging...
The renminbi is overvalued, of that there can be little doubt, and there will certainly exist a desire from many Chinese officials to devalue, as a way of - they hope - kick-starting their slowing economy and halting the capital outflows.

However, the current state of the global economy, as we know, is far from being supportive of such a move. Quite the opposite, in fact, as such a sharp (say 15%-20%) devaluation would unleash a tsunami of volatility on the global economy, which would likely be the trigger of a broader emerging market crisis, unprecedented volatility across asset classes and a debilitating wave of deflation, the combination of which would suppress global demand, possibly rendering the devaluation of no use, with no economy having enough demand to snap up their cheaper goods. This is not to mention the effect it would have on those domestic Chinese banks and corporates which have borrowed heavily in dollars.

In addition, invoking such a large move would be a signal of severe weakness in the Chinese economy, therefore a loss of confidence in the country's government on the domestic and global stage. Think back to the effect their surprise move had no the markets in August 2015 and multiple by a factor of X.

The more likely outcome will, I think, be a very gradual managed depreciation. However, a large one-off devaluation is still the greatest risk, albeit currently an outlier one, to financial markets.
  • #139,313
  • Feb 26, 2016 1:43am Feb 26, 2016 1:43am
Quoting sisse
Us equities look eager to shake out some of the losses this year and make a quick run before March FED/CB combo. Eyes on 1875.x [check] in the S&P for the opening range to ignite and complete the leg to 1956.xx [check] before March
Quoting sisse
miss... zigzag [check] in play in equities until Friday with Dollar getting offer in between ... GL all trading the leg...
​
Quoting sisse
... equities completing the expected first part of the zigzag pre market [check].
...and I will [finally] take that. Clearing all in US Equities overnight on the test 1955.xx. Equities worldwide look very tired on the last rally and only the US is pushing up. Last news of the month coming with NY for a change in outlook in play....

On the rest of the board, as expected Euro in a very choppy ride with inflation collapsing faster than forecasted in the last few weeks making ECB action a MUST for next month.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,314
  • Feb 26, 2016 3:11am Feb 26, 2016 3:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote}{quote} ...and I will [finally] take that. Clearing all in US Equities overnight on the test 1955.xx. Equities worldwide look very tired on the last rally and only the US is pushing up. Last news of the month coming with NY for a change in outlook in play.... On the rest of the board, as expected Euro in a very choppy ride with inflation collapsing faster than forecasted in the last few weeks making ECB action a MUST for next month. sisse
What are you thinking, rate cut or QE+?
  • #139,315
  • Feb 26, 2016 3:21am Feb 26, 2016 3:21am
Quoting diggo
. This doesn't seem like a brilliant long term strategy. Why can't they let nature take it's course? The Yuan looks like the short of the century at the moment. How much longer can they afford to keep it so strong?
It's a holding action. They are waiting for nature to take it's course. This is macro-economics ammo that only the Chinese central planners have (to this degree anyway. Countries with low fertility rates like Germany with a 1.4 birthrate naturally could try to bribe their citizens into having more kids with various incentives, but it's not quite the same as removing a prohibition on it). The baby boom is on its way and with it growth...

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/31/as...icy-in-effect/
  • #139,316
  • Edited 3:58am Feb 26, 2016 3:37am | Edited 3:58am
Very strong opening range in Europe as expected on the closing flows of the month pre ECB/FED combo but that was about it for the european morning.

Equities completing the pullback and very dark clouds are aligning on top of the world economy. US GDP flopping today will leave us with only CBs (ECB QE / Dovish FED) as only artificial sources to pump Equities to the long side in the short term.

We are aligning for softer numbers later with NY unlocking one more leg on dovish FED before NFP. Not much to do or see until NY with Equities, Dollar, Euro, Gold and OIL in launching platforms before the monthly close.

sisse

Quoting diggo
FA on the Chinese Yuan if I may? I don't understand why the Chinese government wants to keep the Yuan pegged to the USD. Isn't this the cause of the slowdown they are currently experiencing? .... Why can't they let nature take it's course? The Yuan looks like the short of the century at the moment. How much longer can they afford to keep it so strong?
Well that is a very complex topic that will require a few follow ups.

--> In a nutshell: Politics and Expectations

China is a complex country for market analysis. First because is fully integrated to world markets but at the same time free markets are constrain internally by the lack of democracy to make information and policy decision making fully transparent and coherent.

If you remember last December China's Central Bank signaled that they will be decoupled the Yuan to the Dollar and start using a basket of currencies instead, however things get messier after the sharp selloff we got in January and the PBOC decoupled back on the jitters.

--> As gammase1 very well pointed out "a large move would be a signal of severe weakness in the Chinese economy, therefore a loss of confidence in the country's government on the domestic and global stage".

--> China is caught between 2 very strong forces right now. On the one hand, devaluing the YUAN (via cutting the 100% the PEG on the Dollar) can send major shockwaves across the world and produce extreme moves given the current hard landing on the real economy. This will trigger a run on confidence and investment against China that can end up actually having a negative impact instead of pumping exports.

On the other hand, as you well point out, keeping a semi official peg to the Dollar when its so high and flirting to fly even higher will test the limits of the PBOC. The consequences of overstaying on the current levels with a soft economy will just prolong the slowdown.

--> In simple words, balancing between making the YUAN a global credible force with China's internal economic and monetary policy reality is charging a heavy toll on the Economy and stock markets. The lack of transparency and democratic and independent institutions for policy making, lead to even more uncertainty and less clarity for the rest of the world.

China will have to deal with these contradictory forces while the rest of the investment world outside China will have to be extremely careful and just track closely until things get clearer ...

sisse
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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,317
  • Feb 26, 2016 4:32am Feb 26, 2016 4:32am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} It's a holding action. They are waiting for nature to take it's course. This is macro-economics ammo that only the Chinese central planners have (to this degree anyway. Countries with low fertility rates like Germany with a 1.4 birthrate naturally could try to bribe their citizens into having more kids with various incentives, but it's not quite the same as removing a prohibition on it). The baby boom is on its way and with it growth... http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/31/as...icy-in-effect/
It's incredibly difficult for a country to raise its birth rate, once long term demographic trends are in place. Taiwan, for instance, has never had restrictions on a number of births per couple, but its birth rate is 1.1.

China's birth rate is currently at 1.6, well below a replacement rate of 2.1. They have officially lifted the one-child-per-couple rule, but this restriction has not really been enforced in any meaningful way for a few years, as the government faced up to the realities of a rapidly ageing population. In that time, China has quickly urbanised; its economy moving away from agriculture (where families needed lots of children to help work the farm and cope with high infant mortality rates, and space permitted these big families) to one largely based on manufacturing, with more of its population living in less spacious surroundings. Add to that mix the fact that Chinese women are better educated and have ambitions for their careers and self-development that take precedent over raising a big family.
  • #139,318
  • Feb 26, 2016 5:13am Feb 26, 2016 5:13am
Quoting sisse
Very strong opening range in Europe as expected on the closing flows of the month pre ECB/FED combo but that was about it for the european morning. Equities completing the pullback and very dark clouds are aligning on top of the world economy. US GDP flopping today will leave us with only CBs (ECB QE / Dovish FED) as only artificial sources to pump Equities to the long side in the short term. We are aligning for softer numbers later with NY unlocking one more leg on dovish FED before NFP. Not much to do or see until NY with Equities, Dollar,...
Sisse, thank you for the China comments. Could you add more on the part of equities + world economy? I thought that the situation of world economy kind of stabilized = commodity prices are not really crashing again, oil has shot up, US numbers are pretty good this year (only strange thing is the US services number) - atlantaFED GDPnow is about 2,7 % etc. I mean = of course global economy is in slump but it seems to me as the same one we had Q3/Q4 of 2015.

So is there anything specific, which shows u the dark clouds over the global economy??? = In macro sense XX other issue are equities. I completely see another leg down to the lows and beyond - the recent rally is very suspicious. In context of timing - would you see the short term leg down pre-ECB/FED or after-ECB/FED? I would expect the bastards - as you call them, lol - to do it quickly to scare the FED.

And now the causation.... would be the next short term leg down in equities based on global macro economy weakness or the global macro clouds you see are here because of the instability coming from financial markets as possible drags down on global economy? Ehm, or is it samothing completely different?

Thank you
  • #139,319
  • Edited 7:50am Feb 26, 2016 6:38am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting gammase1
{quote} It's incredibly difficult for a country to raise its birth rate, once long term demographic trends are in place. Taiwan, for instance, has never had restrictions on a number of births per couple, but its birth rate is 1.1. China's birth rate is currently at 1.6, well below a replacement rate of 2.1. They have officially lifted the one-child-per-couple rule, but this restriction has not really been enforced in any meaningful way for a few years, as the government faced up to the realities of a rapidly ageing population. In that time, China...
True about Taiwan, but they arrived at that rate naturally. When you have forbidden people to do something it automatically becomes more attractive. And when it then becomes possible, pent up demand gets released. (Historical examples: the introduction of potatoes to France by Parmentier, who surrounded them with guards in order to convince people to steal them, and of course, Prohibition, which increased demand for alcohol.) While all the factors you mentioned would lead to a reduction of the birthrate, the one child policy should have led to pent up demand for kids, which has just now been offered the opportunity to be realized. I'm not saying Chinese women are going back to having 8 kids each, but a baby boom IS coming to China (predicted to start in 2017 according to CNN article), and that will stimulate growth, almost immediately, with long term and gradually increasing effects as the kids get older.

Edit: I also think that Westerners tend to underrate the import of policy statements by Chinese leadership, because we don't live in economies that are planned as much as theirs is. The West didn't really pay attention when Deng Xiao ping made that statement about the color of a cat back in the 60s. Then one day in the 80's it looked up and found that all its clothes were being made in China. Then it didn't pay attention when Chinese leadership said China needed to move up the value chain in manufacturing about 25 years ago, expecting them to go on making cheap clothes and pottery. (The 'we think, they sweat' school of free trade advocacy). And now a Chinese smartphone maker is kicking Samsung's ass, and getting ready to challenge Apple. So when they say they are going to focus on increasing internal consumption to make their economy less dependent on exports, I take it seriously, and I think they will make this policy work (maybe with some temporary hiccups, but they really can't afford for it not to work), including the fertility component. Because so far, their track record for doing what they say they are going to do (at least regarding really big picture economics) is pretty good. (Also fertility has been correlated to socioeconomic status/income in the twentieth century. So you have to ask yourself: which Chinese fled to Taiwan?)
  • #139,320
  • Feb 26, 2016 6:57am Feb 26, 2016 6:57am
Quoting chester123
... Could you add more on the part of equities + world economy? I thought that the situation of world economy kind of stabilised = commodity prices are not really crashing again, oil has shot up, US numbers are pretty good this year ...
I believe I mentioned this a few time already and I think you are underestimating the Game Changer in play: Europe / EU disintegration.

These are the dark clouds aligning in order of importance and weight:

  1. The Brexit referendum is triggering a MAJOR uncertainty play until is clear.

    1. The threat of the biggest trading block in the world, the second largest economy (GDP), and richest consumer market in the world descending into chaos and unilateral protectionist "beggar-thy-neighbour" environment will be devastating for the world economy.
    2. Despite making happy a few populist and old fashion nationalist, the collapse of the EU will bring huge ??? and as you know markets don't give a damn about the politics behind it but they will HATE uncertainty and Europe splitting in dozen of tiny divergent and irrelevant crumbs ...


  2. ​Inflation has collapsed in the Eurozone faster and deeper than forecasted.

    1. ​The latest inflation numbers are very scary. We are on the brink of entering on a full deflation spiral. Although the macro numbers have found some foot since the Greece debacle last year, deflation with economic stagnation will put a huge pressure in the real economy (and therefore in Equities)
    2. If you add a flat economy and a deep deflationary spiral with the risk/uncertainty of the EU collapsing we have a recipe for disaster that will have a huge impact far beyond the Europe.


  3. Central Banks running out of policy options.

    1. ​This is not new and it was expected since the FED overextended on the hikes last year. ECB has one last bazooka available with +QE in March or June but the arsenal is pretty much empty worldwide. From the BOJ to the BOE (the BOE hinted to a further rate cut if need but not negative rates) there is nowhere to hide neither rates to cut.
    2. More importantly if FED make U turn and undo the hikes DEC it will trigger a major panic worldwide sending Equities to the floor and below in no time.


  4. ​Emerging Economies crossed the line and there are far from finding a decent bottom.

    1. ​There is no bottom on sight for the collapse in emerging economies. Most are entering/has entered in recession, inflation is ticking up, currencies are getting hammered (even without dollar making a fresh break up) and commodities prices are still far from finding a solid bottom.


  5. Commodities and OIL in free fall

    1. Oil only found foot on a pseudo soft announcement between OPEC and Russia. However, it came as desperation measure rather than an actual plan which highlight PANIC rather than a common position.
    2. On the demand side, only the US is ticking up but the rest of the world is softening and a soft wind from the US (as soft as US election uncertainty) will put a hard stop on the rally. While China is trying to find foot and is far far far away to be the hungry shark for OIL it was last decade.
    3. On the supply side, all non Middle East producer are in turmoil and on inches of political and economic failure (Venezuela, Nigeria, Ecuador, etc) while uncompetitive rich producer are going busted like dominos with OIL at these levels.


  6. ​US entering in election mode

    1. ​US macro numbers are holding strong and they are the only ones holding the world economy in the short term. However, the closer we get to elections, the more neutral and less trigger happy investor will be in Equities until the US political map is cleared.
    2. On top populist/nationalistic ideas are gaining momentum with Trump. Although is way too early to even consider this seriously, a populist wave in the US before the general election will trigger caution making equities empty of convinced buyers from any front ...


I hope it helps ...

sisse
​

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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