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Forex Made Millionaire Thread for Blog Swing Trades

  • #1,541
  • Feb 25, 2016 6:33am Feb 25, 2016 6:33am
Quoting SulikFXer
Im confused with G/U and G/J now. E/U looks good for going long, but still not sure. anyone got any ideas? Looking for entries, but can't make up my mind...
There is a Eur/Usd trade I posted few hours ago. 4H upward channel on the Euro. Still a makable trade as Risk / Reward ratio. Check post 2 or 3 pages back.
  • #1,542
  • Feb 25, 2016 6:41am Feb 25, 2016 6:41am
Quoting Forex147
{quote} There is a Eur/Usd trade I posted few hours ago. 4H upward channel on the Euro. Still a makable trade as Risk / Reward ratio. Check post 2 or 3 pages back.
Thanks. I'll look it up.

So just my 3 cents
GBP/USD and GBP/JPY have really similar charts. Im thinking current retracements are well within 38.2 Fib, once they reach it, depending on price action,
I'll short if I see exhaustion on this move, or stay away, if I don't. Also, 38.2 marks some nice resistance levels on both charts AND by the time h4 reach this level Stoch should show jump in overbuy, and that's a nice confluence of probabilities.
Just like Geppy, I don't see these pairs reversing just yet. And the price is always retracing soo.. its a move we could anticipate.
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  • #1,543
  • Feb 25, 2016 6:55am Feb 25, 2016 6:55am
Quoting spartanforex
i'm watching the dollar/yen for a short position at 112.61 . was eying this number when it had bounced from 111.62 but only reached 112.25. Only thing i hate about shorting usd/yen right now is if the bottom breaks the BOJ will probably intervene because they are idiots

closed more than half of all positions on usd/cad 13615 +240 on starter positions

this dollar yen short is giving me trouble, 112.61 was a top but hopefully it was worth more than 60 pips. got my stop right above
  • #1,544
  • Feb 25, 2016 7:04am Feb 25, 2016 7:04am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Interesting. I'm buying pretty aggressively at these levels: {image}
Did as well, but got stopped. Corrective range was broken to the downside, I think it might tumble down a bit more.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,545
  • Feb 25, 2016 7:13am Feb 25, 2016 7:13am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Did as well, but got stopped. Corrective range was broken to the downside, I think it might tumble down a bit more.
i think so too. there's some options on u/c for tomorrow at 136 , i think the put side holders will try to move below 136 today while they have momentum.
  • #1,546
  • Feb 25, 2016 7:18am Feb 25, 2016 7:18am
Quoting Geppy
Hey gang, I'm still holding shorts on GBP/JPY and USD/JPY. They were well into profit early this morning and now just barely *sigh* I'm adding a bit here though because the trend is still down. I also jumped back in USD/CAD longs at 1.3700 It was a strange day with US equities reversing, and I really have a hard time seeing equities continue to push higher. But who knows... Been super busy at work today so that's why I've been a bit MIA. Hope everyone is having a killer week though. Tomorrow I'll be publishing...

I got a feeling that once oil cant stay eleviated they will switch to the dollar/yen to prop up the stock market. then a big fall
  • #1,547
  • Feb 25, 2016 7:21am Feb 25, 2016 7:21am
Quoting SulikFXer
{quote} Thanks. I'll look it up. So just my 3 cents GBP/USD and GBP/JPY have really similar charts. Im thinking current retracements are well within 38.2 Fib, once they reach it, depending on price action, I'll short if I see exhaustion on this move, or stay away, if I don't. Also, 38.2 marks some nice resistance levels on both charts AND by the time h4 reach this level Stoch should show jump in overbuy, and that's a nice confluence of probabilities. Just like Geppy, I don't see these pairs reversing just yet. And the price is always retracing soo.....
I agree, the only problem I am having with JPY is that 111-11.50 is intervention territory for the Bank of Japan, we have already seen the Japanese government check rate between 111 and 111.60 and that could be a line in the sand!!
  • #1,548
  • Feb 25, 2016 7:33am Feb 25, 2016 7:33am
Dont know about everyone else but it's been a frustrating week for me. I've seen a lot of positions stopped overnight when they were heavily in profit at one point. I'm still up for the week so I'm grateful, but I don't think I've ever seen that much unrealised profit reversed on me before. I suppose this was a week where holding my trades to the very end didn't pay off, but at least I held on.

It may just be the tough week talking but I don't see anything I'm too eager to dip my feet into right now. I think it might be worth clearing my head over the weekend and calling it a week early.
  • #1,549
  • Feb 25, 2016 7:39am Feb 25, 2016 7:39am
Quoting Monteverde
I think it might be worth clearing my head over the weekend and calling it a week early.
That is never a bad idea man.
God knows it's not the market that's our enemy here, most of this is in our heads.
Get some rest and come back on sunday
  • #1,550
  • Feb 25, 2016 7:52am Feb 25, 2016 7:52am
Quoting Monteverde
Dont know about everyone else but it's been a frustrating week for me. I've seen a lot of positions stopped overnight when they were heavily in profit at one point. I'm still up for the week so I'm grateful, but I don't think I've ever seen that much unrealised profit reversed on me before. I suppose this was a week where holding my trades to the very end didn't pay off, but at least I held on. It may just be the tough week talking but I don't see anything I'm too eager to dip my feet into right now. I think it might be worth clearing my head over...
That's exactly my point with Geppy few days ago. Why you let a lot of profit to go away while your greed is looking for more pipips. The point is to secure a good amount of your profit and seek higher returns with a smaller portion. Most of traders think about unrealized profits as paper (monopoly) money and not real. It is real money that you can cash it anytime you want , so why track your position with stop profit mechanism.
  • #1,551
  • Feb 25, 2016 7:59am Feb 25, 2016 7:59am
Quoting Forex147
{quote} That's exactly my point with Geppy few days ago. Why you let a lot of profit to go away while your greed is looking for more pipips.
Because its a game of risk and when you think about securing your profits, you might give in to fear, lack of discipline and lack of belief in your analysis.
It's easy to end up with closing positions at any wrong looking candle and then regreting you missed the big move.
I discovered that once I distance myself from the trade and trust my analysis I make more money then when I dont.
But honestly I dont think there's a right answer. Just do whatever works for you.
Money management is not the topic of this thread anyway.
  • #1,552
  • Feb 25, 2016 8:08am Feb 25, 2016 8:08am
Quoting Forex147
{quote} That's exactly my point with Geppy few days ago. Why you let a lot of profit to go away while your greed is looking for more pipips. The point is to secure a good amount of your profit and seek higher returns with a smaller portion. Most of traders think about unrealized profits as paper (monopoly) money and not real. It is real money that you can cash it anytime you want , so why track your position with stop profit mechanism.
It's not "greed" it's simply the foundation of swing trading. You do your homework, you choose sensible targets and put reasonable SL in place and then you let the trade run. I keep an eye on it to make sure nothing has changed which might alter my original thoughts on the trade, but if you're fully committed to swing trading then you need to be confident in your position and let it run. If it doesn't work out you learn for next time, and if you had a reasonable stop in place then you'll never find yourself that badly in the red. If you do find yourelf consistently losing then your trades are the problem. The benefit is that when it DOES work you end up with a much larger return, or at least an equal return, to when I opened dozens of trades in a single day and couldn't be away from my desk glued to my charts.

I'm fully aware that unrealised profit is 'real' but I had a target which I was on track to hit until the equities basically flipped upside down yesterday and turned everything on its head. Stop too early and you'll find yourself cursing at your charts the next day when you see how much more you could have made had you stuck to your guns. So in that respect I'd rather have a bad week now and then where things don't work out then constantly be mad at myself for backing out of winning trades too early.

EDIT: also agree with SulikFXer whose post I just saw that this isn't the topic of the thread so it's the last I'll say on the matter. I *do* think that if you find the concept of letting trades run erroneous that you're in the wrong thread and would be better suited elsewhere rather than trying to argue your case here.
  • #1,553
  • Feb 25, 2016 8:12am Feb 25, 2016 8:12am
Quoting SulikFXer
{quote} Because its a game of risk and when you think about securing your profits, you might give in to fear, lack of discipline and lack of belief in your analysis. It's easy to end up with closing positions at any wrong looking candle and then regreting you missed the big move. I discovered that once I distance myself from the trade and trust my analysis I make more money then when I dont. But honestly I dont think there's a right answer. Just do whatever works for you. Money management is not the topic of this thread anyway.
Maybe you misunderstood me. Of course you should have a plan about the trade before you take it. Fail to plan is a plan to fail. All I am saying is don't let a heavy profit just to tear away. Always track your profit along the way with your position, and you can risk a small amount of that profit to pursue higher returns. The point is to keep sustained profitability first, and I think this thread is for discussing trading which MM is part of it. Thanx
  • #1,554
  • Feb 25, 2016 8:40am Feb 25, 2016 8:40am
out of my long positions on GJ, GU,EU in good profit, keeping my UJ longs and UC shorts.
  • #1,555
  • Feb 25, 2016 8:52am Feb 25, 2016 8:52am
GJ shorted after the hammer on 30m with 35 pips SL keeping tight, as BOJ fear, lets see if we can run back down
  • #1,556
  • Feb 25, 2016 9:09am Feb 25, 2016 9:09am
Quoting Monteverde
{quote} It's not "greed" it's simply the foundation of swing trading. You do your homework, you choose sensible targets and put reasonable SL in place and then you let the trade run. I keep an eye on it to make sure nothing has changed which might alter my original thoughts on the trade, but if you're fully committed to swing trading then you need to be confident in your position and let it run. If it doesn't work out you learn for next time, and if you had a reasonable stop in place then you'll never find yourself that badly in the red. If you...
Yes, this!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,557
  • Feb 25, 2016 9:12am Feb 25, 2016 9:12am
Hi gang, like many of you I was stopped out of my position last night. Some for profit, some not.

I'm seeing a lot of frustration on the thread. That's understandable.

The first couple days of the week were great for us. I hope many of you bagged pips. But yesterday was a really tough day. I had re-established shorts in GBP/JPY and GBP/USD and they ran well into profit until US equities flipped on us. I was ultimately stopped out of these trades overnight.

I think a lot of you were in the same boat, and it's never fun seeing a bunch of gains get taken out like that.

But that being said, it's part of being a swing trader. We're going to have times like that. It's frustrating, but we need to learn how to deal and cope with it. I'm admittedly still learning that too.

So do what you need to do to get your head straight. Take the rest of the week off if that's what it takes. The markets will be here waiting for you when you're ready.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #1,558
  • Feb 25, 2016 9:15am Feb 25, 2016 9:15am
Quoting Monteverde
Dont know about everyone else but it's been a frustrating week for me. I've seen a lot of positions stopped overnight when they were heavily in profit at one point. I'm still up for the week so I'm grateful, but I don't think I've ever seen that much unrealised profit reversed on me before. I suppose this was a week where holding my trades to the very end didn't pay off, but at least I held on. It may just be the tough week talking but I don't see anything I'm too eager to dip my feet into right now. I think it might be worth clearing my head over...
Same here had some winners but overall down for the week. Stopped out of the USD/CAD for 100 pip loss same with the GBP/JPY. USD/JPY was getting close to my stop loss.

That said it had been a big learning experience for me. On all 3 of these I went in to early this has been my biggest problem.
  • #1,559
  • Feb 25, 2016 9:16am Feb 25, 2016 9:16am
So long as I take away a lesson from a bad day, it's fine with me. My goal for this year was to transition to fully swing trading, so even though it didn't work out I'm glad that I overcame the mental blocks and stuck with my trades.

A few lessons learned with regards to better managing my stops to lock in profit and I'll have a better week next week. Hope the same goes for all of you.
  • #1,560
  • Feb 25, 2016 9:17am Feb 25, 2016 9:17am
Something to be mindful of, gang. On the 15-minute GBP/JPY chart we're seeing the 50 moving average cross the 200. The 100 is close behind. We haven't seen this happen like this since the 12th. So we could be in for a decent correction higher. Not sure I want to bet on it yet, but it's definitely on my radar:

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