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SketchBook - Sharing ideas on trading systems

  • #21
  • Feb 24, 2016 6:50am Feb 24, 2016 6:50am
Ano
I have excellent results with magic falling knives
  • #22
  • Feb 24, 2016 6:53am Feb 24, 2016 6:53am
I have been trading for 17 years now.
My best trades were always after a trend change, enter in the direction of the new trend after a pullback and keep on follow the trend after new pullback until the trend changes again.

The issues are to determinate when the teen changes and whether it will be a new trend or sideways market.

Do you think you could work on a system based on this kiss idea?

Tx
S
  • #23
  • Feb 24, 2016 8:32am Feb 24, 2016 8:32am
Strange ... what do you think ?

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No guts, no glory
  • #24
  • Feb 24, 2016 8:37am Feb 24, 2016 8:37am
Hi guys ....
here's my statement from day 1 . i got some questions and appreciate ur help.
first of all what u think about it ?
& how many trade i need to have better statistical view ?
fyi in the beginning i was trading in shorter time frames like m1-m5(trading patterns) but as time passed i turn to m30-h1.
at first was trading up to 5 instrument but now i try focus on 2 instrument at a time which have a less than .50 correlation(for last 50candle in m5 to h4 )
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
my main strategy(for last 2 month) is using ichimoku as a dynamic support/resistance level & bill william's fractal-alligator for buy sell signal
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  • #25
  • Feb 24, 2016 9:22am Feb 24, 2016 9:22am
The last consecutive losses could indicate a trend change on those pairs.
So we'll wait and see how price behaves in ranging area.
No guts, no glory
  • #26
  • Feb 24, 2016 9:24am Feb 24, 2016 9:24am
Quoting KumoBreaker
Hi guys .... here's my statement from day 1 . i got some questions and appreciate ur help. first of all what u think about it ? & how many trade i need to have better statistical view ? fyi in the beginning i was trading in shorter time frames like m1-m5(trading patterns) but as time passed i turn to m30-h1. at first was trading up to 5 instrument but now i try focus on 2 instrument at a time which have a less than .50 correlation(for last 50candle in m5 to h4 ) _________________________________________________________________________________________________...
Not bad, but not good either.
It seems you're playing it extremely safe.

Share your system/method sketch, and let's see.
No guts, no glory
  • #27
  • Feb 24, 2016 9:25am Feb 24, 2016 9:25am
Quoting abokwaik
Strange ... what do you think ? {image} {image}
Thanks abokwaik for the visual indicator, i simulated a buy trade on the bounce of the lower grey line on eu and on gu, so far looking good. Could potentially enter on the break out buy on eu too. Thumbs up to this method.
  • #28
  • Feb 24, 2016 9:31am Feb 24, 2016 9:31am
Initial red vertical line would be to possibly take profit around the mid yellow on the buy, since the overall trend is still down. After which, there was the price bounce back to the bottom grey line which allow us to potentially buy from there. The 2nd vertical line is for breakout trade,lets see how it turns out.
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  • #29
  • Feb 24, 2016 10:00am Feb 24, 2016 10:00am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} Not bad, but not good either. It seems you're playing it extremely safe. Share your system/method sketch, and let's see.
extremely safe !! yep , there's something else . i done 500 trades . if i paid 4pip avg for commision , does it mean i lost 2000pip to broker as a spread?
am i missing something here ?
  • #30
  • Feb 24, 2016 10:18am Feb 24, 2016 10:18am
strategy wise as i said i just use bill williams divergent bar + fractal breakout signals in m30-h1 or gihgher time frames. sometimes i add positions with AO signal(aso bill williams) . for momentum and finding dynamic res/sup levels i use 3 kumo clouds (half standard - standard - double standard). you can say i use kumo clouds like
a moving average (same as bill williams alligator) . for example in a last downtrend of USOIL in m5 chart 3 kumos were bearish and my senteiment was bearish until
las few minutes which 2 kumos turned bullish. as u can see there's a buy signal in H1 timeframe cause of divergent bar .
p.s: 3 kumos(half standard means 5,13,26 and standard settings are 9,26,52 & double stnd 18,26,104) are just for analysis
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  • #31
  • Feb 24, 2016 10:30am Feb 24, 2016 10:30am
Quoting KumoBreaker
{quote} extremely safe !! yep , there's something else . i done 500 trades . if i paid 4pip avg for commision , does it mean i lost 2000pip to broker as a spread? am i missing something here ?
That's part of trading business cost, in addition to your time cost, connection, taxes .... etc.A successful trading system should cover all these costs plus reasonable profit.
No guts, no glory
  • #32
  • Feb 25, 2016 3:38pm Feb 25, 2016 3:38pm
Hello Abo
Have you read my post 22?
I really think we could reach something strong with this.
What do you think?

Tx
S
  • #33
  • Feb 25, 2016 4:21pm Feb 25, 2016 4:21pm
Quoting sbenichou1
I have been trading for 17 years now. My best trades were always after a trend change, enter in the direction of the new trend after a pullback and keep on follow the trend after new pullback until the trend changes again. The issues are to determinate when the teen changes and whether it will be a new trend or sideways market. Do you think you could work on a system based on this kiss idea? Tx S
That would be the holy grail.I find it very difficult to Technically differentiate between a trend change and a pull back. Fundamentals are very important for validation.Of course we are talking currencies here, not pairs.
No guts, no glory
  • #34
  • Feb 25, 2016 5:05pm Feb 25, 2016 5:05pm
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} That would be the holy grail.I find it very difficult to Technically differentiate between a trend change and a pull back. Fundamentals are very important for validation.Of course we are talking currencies here, not pairs.
maybe use a slope indicator for MA and trade pullback on the mas
  • #35
  • Feb 26, 2016 8:11am Feb 26, 2016 8:11am
sup guys .. i got three theories for pullbacks & trend change:
1)elliott wave analysis (HH HL & ...): in absent of major economic news ,a higher degree wave cycle must be come to an end in order to new trend begins . fibo wise a "impulsive trend" must not correct itself more than 61% level & last price action or pattern ends when price goes at least 1.61 in other direction.

2)kumo clouds must have a same momentum . timewise it's awesome

3)i think must important part for intraday trend changes is news & switching between market sessions around the world .

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
but thing is we couldnt know what's gonna happen until it happens . there's abseloutly no difference between some corrections & beginning
of new trends . but if we wait & a new trend begins it's gonna correct it self and give us a good "odds" & risk reward to enter !
  • #36
  • Feb 26, 2016 8:48am Feb 26, 2016 8:48am
Quoting KumoBreaker
sup guys .. i got three theories for pullbacks & trend change: 1)elliott wave analysis (HH HL & ...): in absent of major economic news ,a higher degree wave cycle must be come to an end in order to new trend begins . fibo wise a "impulsive trend" must not correct itself more than 61% level & last price action or pattern ends when price goes at least 1.61 in other direction. 2)kumo clouds must have a same momentum . timewise it's awesome 3)i think must important part for intraday trend changes is news & switching between market sessions around the...
Elliott wave are not easily automatisable!
  • #37
  • Feb 28, 2016 3:49pm Feb 28, 2016 3:49pm
Dynamic Visible Chart Levels : another look
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No guts, no glory
  • #38
  • Feb 28, 2016 11:36pm Feb 28, 2016 11:36pm
3 targets drawn & the 3rd about to be hit. Doesn't get any simpler. AND. Only 1 simple indicator in sight.
Trading a retrace against the trend to boot.
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Look Left Trade Right
  • #39
  • Feb 28, 2016 11:39pm Feb 28, 2016 11:39pm
Bounce coming. Then away we go.
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Look Left Trade Right
  • #40
  • Feb 29, 2016 7:45am Feb 29, 2016 7:45am
Quoting Basill
Bounce coming. Then away we go. {image}
i opened a same position . it' little tricky though , i think price most hold this zone at least for 3-4 hours otherwise it's gonna continue the down swing.
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