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  • #139,261
  • Feb 22, 2016 9:30am Feb 22, 2016 9:30am
Quoting primejarvis
For me cheap tickets available ... Or sisse style " choose your poison time" ...
Hmmm, tickets for what exactly u selling?
  • #139,262
  • Feb 22, 2016 9:39am Feb 22, 2016 9:39am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hmmm, tickets for what exactly u selling?
Buying ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,263
  • Feb 22, 2016 9:48am Feb 22, 2016 9:48am
Quoting sisse
Strong European session over after a very important mover and shaker from the weekend coming from Europe. Brexit has a date and EU uncertainty is officially on the table. Europe will enter in the driver sit for the first time this year. As expected since last year, Game Changer triggered from the UK: --> Changing mid term outlook in the Pound from sell to Strong Sell --> Changingmid term outlook in UK Equities especially (European equities in general) from Neutral to Sell --> Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from sell to Neutral Euro and Sterling...
Isn't this all smoke and mirrors, much like the grexit debacle? I mean in the end there was a lot of panic but no real shocking decisions were taken. Indeed there were some reforms / bailouts / etc... but I guess in the end all will be settled with mutual agreements, maybe some concessions, but I don't believe a brexit will be a real option.
  • #139,264
  • Feb 22, 2016 9:53am Feb 22, 2016 9:53am
Quoting sisse
For the short term leg you are mentioning, the handle is protected [check] until the cut later. Knocking that level will be enough for a run to test key 1.097x. to the other side 1.108x is the only level in play.
No surprises on the opening. Euro held as widely expected but the soft lows are naked now. All eyes on US equites as they are the only ones pushing up worldwide.

They failed by a handful of points to complete the leg in the morning but failure to take 1955.xx this week (as far as the M close) will trigger a change in outlook and more importantly will carry the board until the ECB/FED combo in March and beyond....

For now tracking Euro for the short term play and not much to do on the rest of the board and plays with same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,265
  • Feb 22, 2016 10:05am Feb 22, 2016 10:05am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Isn't this all smoke and mirrors, much like the grexit debacle? I mean in the end there was a lot of panic but no real shocking decisions were taken. ... but I guess in the end all will be settled with mutual agreements, maybe some concessions, but I don't believe a brexit will be a real option.
Yes and No.

Brexit is an actual IN or OUT referendum. An OUT will have unforeseeable consequences in the short, mid and long term. As you know markets don't care about politics but CARE and HATE A LOT uncertainty. Thus, as traders we must adapt and trade accordingly.

On the actual Brexit, its a bit more complicate as the populist and nationalistic right has kidnapped the OUT vote. If you add the populist wave to some of the real educated and minority business Eurosceptics the outcome is a bit too close to call.

Whatever the result, uncertainty will rule UK/European markets until the vote. Then an OUT win could trigger major ?????? until first, business readjust to the new playing field, and after, to see to what extend the whole EU project collapse will set Europe back to the early 20th century with each country pulling to their own interest, with uncompetitive devaluations, less free trade, more regulations, etc etc, etc

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,266
  • Feb 22, 2016 10:22am Feb 22, 2016 10:22am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sure. {quote} The UK just set the day for the Referendum for the UK to leave the EU. This is one of the risk event expected for this year we discussed on the yearly outlook. There is going to be some drama and soap opera the closer we get to the day but more importantly it will trigger a major uncertainty in Europe as the whole EU project is on the table. The 2 major factors in play: 1. On the Equities front (both in the UK [especially] and in the rest of Europe) 99.99% of any major decision and investment will be put on hold until the referendum...
Referendum date is in, its still far to go till end of June, but mid posted results in next 2 months will play on GU spikes just like in Greece/SNB referendum very likely. But ye GBP and EUR will have the weaker side, unless the pre-results start to show strong NO vote signs, which i dont think it will happen, nor is anything pointing in past 2 years for it to be. In regards to parity on GBP, that should be left to BOE aswell, and as for how much push comes on their CB voting in next year for hike, for now its nothing more than just being on table. In either case the vote in June will have massive price impact on GBP, due to prepositioning, fear positioning ahead and as you said uncertainty.
  • #139,267
  • Feb 22, 2016 12:09pm Feb 22, 2016 12:09pm
[quote=Replicant;8769037]{quote} {quote} very well done {quote}

119's yet to be confrmed as a next target. Before that - another dive for LL in to 112.20/10 is brewing, roundabouts of 113 is very pivotal to the either side. Some choppynes in between 113 and 112.60's could occur...
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  • #139,268
  • Feb 22, 2016 1:45pm Feb 22, 2016 1:45pm
no one would benefit from brexit. As usual we have small picture politicians setting up the show (think about mr johnson in bid for tory's leadership). Still to me brexit won't happen, as greece bankruptcy didn't happen and as Le Pen ruling France will never happen.

At the moment I don't think the path to the referendum will spread so much turmoil (except sterling volatility) on the markets and I woudnt exclude betting on sterling should we reach 1.36 in the next weeks.
  • #139,269
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:02pm Feb 22, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting rioMario
no one would benefit from brexit. As usual we have small picture politicians setting up the show (think about mr johnson in bid for tory's leadership). Still to me brexit won't happen, as greece bankruptcy didn't happen and as Le Pen ruling France will never happen. At the moment I don't think the path to the referendum will spread so much turmoil (except sterling volatility) on the markets and I woudnt exclude betting on sterling should we reach 1.36 in the next weeks.
well brexit just depends of a referendum, and so far polls show that Yes and No are in tight battle ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...7702/poll.html

but dramatic moves on the pound before the event could scare the average Joe in Albion and avoid the Brexit... In a way same pattern than in Greece
  • #139,270
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:49pm Feb 22, 2016 2:49pm
Quoting sisse
A major clear out in OIL [check] clearing risk ... OIL holding the $29.xx [check] handle... unlocks a sharp pullback $42.5x with momentum after clearing 32.7x [check] ... update short term outlook in OIL from Neutral to Buy...
Very decent day here with OIL clearing main target on the breach to the the 33.xx handle. Oil holding 32.7x for the M close (I doubt as per weekend news from Europe) will unlock the extension $42.5x. As long as US equities hold on the highs, managing very tightly positions before closing all.

On the rest of the board a rather dull US session...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,271
  • Edited 7:11am Feb 23, 2016 4:01am | Edited 7:11am
E/U update: I took small risky long at 1,108x (yellow area) (always small as its against the mid term swing) and got stopped out by the extension of the short term swing down. Im gonna try once again in the 1,097x area (second yellow area). I would buy any undershoot of the area. If we dont get it I would not mind stepping in if I see some price pattern (e.g. SHS) terminating the swing a little bit above the 1,097x area because it seems that the short term swing extension target was 1,101x area (not necesarilly 1,097x, which is mid term lvl). generally 1,097x is expected to hold (weekly) as there is no fundamental trigger to break it in sight (i.e. til ECB/NFP/FED).

The revers short term swing should definitevily run above 1.108x to sit somewhere above it for the super trio - NFP, ECB, FED.

P.S.: it seems the short term leg up in E/U needs help from equities. DAX, US500 seems to be terminating and preparing for a short term leg down again in days coming into ECB, FED. The steepness is gonna be highly determined by the oil, i.e. if it joins the party to the lower side.
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  • #139,272
  • Feb 23, 2016 7:54am Feb 23, 2016 7:54am
Eyes on the open. Only important report till Friday coming. US Equities are set to break the highs and complete the leg. They only need a small push from macro numbers.

Not expecting much on the numbers, inline or better is direct moves. Even a flop wont affect the super strong trend in Consumer Confidence and major flop will only increase volatility and pretty much kill the equities rally short term increasing more FED dovish sentiment next month.

On the Euro, choose your poison time for those interested in trading it this week. On the rest of the board, same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,273
  • Feb 23, 2016 8:17am Feb 23, 2016 8:17am
sisse,

Question:

If the EU goes a little lower .0950ish I can cut my trades at B/E. Why, would I want to do this? If Market may make a short term leg higher based on more FED Dovish talk; then, I could get better seats. I am trying to look at direction right now. If Equities break HIGHS then EU should go down farther. However, I believe you are still anticipating a short term leg NORTH to complete and compliment EQUITIES and OIL making a last decent at some point to be the actual start of MID TERM LEG.

I do not wish to hold onto the positions if EU may make another approach to the .1300 handle as you pointed out last week.

Your thoughts?
  • #139,274
  • Feb 23, 2016 8:31am Feb 23, 2016 8:31am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Question: If the EU goes a little lower .0950ish I can cut my trades at B/E. Why, would I want to do this? If Market may make a short term leg higher based on more FED Dovish talk; then, I could get better seats. I am trying to look at direction right now. If Equities break HIGHS then EU should go down farther. However, I believe you are still anticipating a short term leg NORTH to complete and compliment EQUITIES and OIL making a last decent at some point to be the actual start of MID TERM LEG. I do not wish to hold onto the positions if...
You are screwed because of the FIFO rule so it's a bit harder to manage positions especially when you are averaging in with a relatively poor early entry.

On the technical side, price can go as low 1.091x in the current leg to squeeze as much as possible remaining long positions. Below that it looks locked both TA and FA wise until GDP/NFP at the bare minimum but the real deal comes from the ECB (more QE looks set by the minute with poor numbers all over the place + UK referendum jitters) /FED combo.

Oil is out of the driver seat for now and it will be carried by equities in the very short term.

Take it as lesson learned this time. You should have cut your losses early. Sitting nearly 400 ticks drawdown and holding a few weeks is not good trading. In order to avoid the FIFO problems, you just need to be even more discipline so next time cut your losses and improve your mapping to avoid it.

For now and to be honest, if we get a deep leg in the current leg (1.091x and below) you could clear but the odds of getting a much better entry later than you are currently holding wont be that high ...either you sit tight and don't sweat it for the next 3 or 4 weeks until FED/ECB or you just clear the poor entries, forget about it and try to start from scratch without getting piss off if the leg up end up very very very shallow and your previous entry would have been better level wise...

GL....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,275
  • Edited 2:18pm Feb 23, 2016 8:49am | Edited 2:18pm
sisse,

Thanks for the honest assessment. Yes, FIFO is the problem child in the midst of my early entry and poor TIMING. I may not have to cut all my positions to B/E. But, my thinking is that I do not want to sit here and watch PA climb to .12xx/.13XX handle when I could have got a better position and not as much draw down. As of right now, I don't mind my positions at the .1140 handle if PA goes to .13xx. It's the .0920 positions that I would rather cut.

I just was more interested in what you you were looking at regarding the short term leg still if EQUITIES make a HIGH. I was looking at .0970-->.0860-->.080x/.079X if Equities went Higher and then on their decent for the crumbs .179X, the EU would test the .11XX handle prior to ECB. However, I believe this is overstretched and trying to find a more reasonable EXIT point.

I think its about Capital Management and Risk for me.

Thanks for your input and comments! It HELPS!!!
  • #139,276
  • Feb 23, 2016 9:06am Feb 23, 2016 9:06am
miss... zigzag in play in equities until Friday with Dollar getting offer in between ...

GL all trading the leg...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,277
  • Feb 23, 2016 9:12am Feb 23, 2016 9:12am
sisse,

Playing the ZIG or ZAG in EU with the miss in US DATA probably diminishes any chance of the .091X area being tested? Or, do you still see EQUITIES making/taking a HIGH before FRI US DATA?

Overall, consumer confidence still sees economy growth near-term. It was not a huge FLOP in numbers. And, US existing Home Sales ROSE.
  • #139,278
  • Feb 23, 2016 1:36pm Feb 23, 2016 1:36pm
Hello, does anyone thinks that at this moment Japanese economy could be a little bit on drugs? Inflation (without energy) is going up a and interest rates going negative?
Live and Keep Calm
  • #139,279
  • Feb 23, 2016 4:51pm Feb 23, 2016 4:51pm
Quoting troneras
Hello, does anyone thinks that at this moment Japanese economy could be a little bit on drugs? Inflation (without energy) is going up a and interest rates going negative?
Japanese economy was on drugs since early 2000s, when first QEs were launched. The patient is getting sicker though, as QEs are expanding in size along with BOJ balance sheet, inflation (not the one goverment counts) and sinking economy. Once you buy up all the assets you can by CB and the economy still cant pull it trough well, there is only one thing left to do, to chop some rates, and then chop some more...
  • #139,280
  • Feb 24, 2016 3:01am Feb 24, 2016 3:01am
U/J showing signs of reversal. Still another low in to 111.60's is a possibility untill it sits bellow 112.20. Bulls are targeting 119.xx
E/U wants 1.0850/10, but bullish correction is overdue... It should bounce before reaching 1.0920's
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