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  • #221
  • Feb 22, 2016 9:26am Feb 22, 2016 9:26am
and now we are at .7230. Sometimes it's best not to fight the trend. Sometimes it's best not to trade at all.b there's nothing on my charts indicating to short, but that's just what I see.
  • #222
  • Feb 22, 2016 9:39am Feb 22, 2016 9:39am
Quoting PA is King
and now we are at .7230. Sometimes it's best not to fight the trend. Sometimes it's best not to trade at all.b there's nothing on my charts indicating to short, but that's just what I see.

Double top 4th Feb?
  • #223
  • Edited 10:13am Feb 22, 2016 10:03am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Double top 4th Feb?

Maybe and maybe not. On Feb. 4th we had rail road track candles on the 1hr chart and some pinbars. I don't have any of that right now as price has just reached that area. Time will tell, just need some patience.

I should add in here that we have rallied 100pips since Sunday's open which is Aussies ADR. So the probability of a retrace is higher than it was earlier in the day. However, I still don't have enough reasons to actually enter a trade short right now.
  • #224
  • Feb 22, 2016 10:17am Feb 22, 2016 10:17am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I thought you would still have some of that handful of shorts tashkent. As i recall you were anticipating this rise to increase shorts at higher level. I closed my two longs and looking to short. I'm biased towards lower levels too. The Aussie economy doesn't justify a rise....I think it's only the decline in USD and market manipulators pushing it up. The Aussie government is hurting from loss of royalties and taxes from commodities. The latest big loss is a reduction of royalties from all the gas wells that have come on line... they always...
we are at levels for position trading for those who are short biased. just added one more short (7230). this is pretty much it for today.
if i was mid or long term bullish, would just keep adding to longs unless 4h confirms reversal.
also there is no problem with anticipating a trade and getting into a position. sitting a side will never make us any money and sitting a side does not mean we will get the direction when we enter next time. losing is an inevitable part of the game; we just need to know how to control the losers. if some are planning to short, i do not see anything wrong with it. just make sure the position is small, use sl, get out if wrong, add if right and so on.
we are all here to make money and discuss our trades, biases and learn.
good luck either short or long
As Above, So Below
  • #225
  • Feb 22, 2016 10:47am Feb 22, 2016 10:47am
I wouldn't fault anyone for trying a short at .7230. But it doesn't fit my trading criteria. I'm not a position trader, just a simple day trader. Sitting on the sidelines does protect my account from losses and I'm ok missing pips if price does go down.
  • #226
  • Edited 2:59pm Feb 22, 2016 1:36pm | Edited 2:59pm
I finally see a bearish pinbar on the 1hr chart and some pinbars and railroad tracks on the 15mn chart. Short from .7230 short provide a 20-30 pip gain down near .7200 area. Not sure what price would do f on there. As always, keep your stop loss small, maybe just above highs of the day. Again, this is just my trading style for day trading...not swing or position.

Happy trading!

Added note: 4hr chart has a nice pinbar too. But still not many sellers as I personally believe the market makers have a lot of traders trapped short.
  • #227
  • Feb 22, 2016 3:03pm Feb 22, 2016 3:03pm
wow, I just looked at the FF position/live account stats. 66% of traders are short A/U and 709 are in losing trades while only 90 are winning. That's EXACTLY how the markets makers make their money!
  • #228
  • Feb 22, 2016 3:49pm Feb 22, 2016 3:49pm
Quoting PA is King
wow, I just looked at the FF position/live account stats. 66% of traders are short A/U and 709 are in losing trades while only 90 are winning. That's EXACTLY how the markets makers make their money!

Good morning PA. Those are interesting stats. I tried to look them up but I can't see how you narrowed your search to A/U. Can you provide a simple explanation? I can see with that info it would b very attractive for MMs to do a short hunt to higher levels.
  • #229
  • Feb 22, 2016 3:59pm Feb 22, 2016 3:59pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Good morning PA. Those are interesting stats. I tried to look them up but I can't see how you narrowed your search to A/U. Can you provide a simple explanation? I can see with that info it would b very attractive for MMs to do a short hunt to higher levels.
Hi Blackopal,
I'm not sure how you have you FF layout, but on mine when you scroll to the bottom right of the FF homepage it lists the Positions/Live account stats. It shows e/u, g/u, and u/j. You have to click on "more" and then scroll down to AUD/Usd...then click on it and you'll see all the stats.
  • #230
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:20pm Feb 22, 2016 4:20pm
oanda open positions against ff traders who have trade explorer (218 lot )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aus.png Size: 14 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #231
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:24pm Feb 22, 2016 4:24pm
Quoting tashkent
oanda open positions against ff traders who have trade explorer (218 lot ) {image}
i like oandas histogram
my fxbook good as well http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
  • #232
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:35pm Feb 22, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Hi Blackopal, I'm not sure how you have you FF layout, but on mine when you scroll to the bottom right of the FF homepage it lists the Positions/Live account stats. It shows e/u, g/u, and u/j. You have to click on "more" and then scroll down to AUD/Usd...then click on it and you'll see all the stats.

Thanks PA and tashkent. Got it. PA looking a bit wobbly at the moment. Pinbar on 4h and 2H. I have another short from .7230
  • #233
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:44pm Feb 22, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting PA is King
wow, I just looked at the FF position/live account stats. 66% of traders are short A/U and 709 are in losing trades while only 90 are winning. That's EXACTLY how the markets makers make their money!
Ive always wondered this too,. On C-trader you get the positions percentages of long and short trades and even though 65% of traders were short price were sill going up.

I really dont know how and why price moves the way it does but all I know that. Banks take up only 5% of traders but hold 95% of the liquidity. So even if all the retail traders and fund managers were to short the aud at once the banks can literally wipe them all out in a second.

Im not too sure how the c-trader volume indicator works but I presume
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: percentage.png Size: 54 KB
it links all c-trader accounts to get the states.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #234
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:00pm Feb 22, 2016 5:00pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Ive always wondered this too,. On C-trader you get the positions percentages of long and short trades and even though 65% of traders were short price were sill going up. I really dont know how and why price moves the way it does but all I know that. Banks take up only 5% of traders but hold 95% of the liquidity. So even if all the retail traders and fund managers were to short the aud at once the banks can literally wipe them all out in a second. Im not too sure how the c-trader volume indicator works but I presume{image} it links all c-trader...

Good morning Paul. Are you still short A/U? Big run up last night but wobbling now. But as PA points out, still maintaining higher highs and higher lows 4H chart. Last night went a bit above high from Feb 4th and closed about 7 pips higher than Feb 4th close but might be a double top for now until next test.
  • #235
  • Edited 5:31pm Feb 22, 2016 5:02pm | Edited 5:31pm
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} i like oandas histogram my fxbook good as well http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
i usually check oanda to get market sentiment. with its volume of about $6 billion a day, it more or less represents positioning of traders from other major brokers too. currently there is still some balance between sellers and buyers. also check saxo capital markets, over $13 billion daily volume. it is showing bigger limit orders around 7300 and currently seller/buyer order ratio is 46/54
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture.png Size: 70 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #236
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:21pm Feb 22, 2016 5:21pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Good morning Paul. Are you still short A/U? Big run up last night but wobbling now. But as PA points out, still maintaining higher highs and higher lows 4H chart. Last night went a bit above high from Feb 4th and closed about 7 pips higher than Feb 4th close but might be a double top for now until next test.
Placed a aud/usd short this morning at .72265 see how we go . Got burnt yesterday on G/A longs. Tried to trade pull backs but all failed so end up just going with it and made back about a 3rd of my loss but still in profit so far this year so all good.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #237
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:23pm Feb 22, 2016 5:23pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Good morning Paul. Are you still short A/U? Big run up last night but wobbling now. But as PA points out, still maintaining higher highs and higher lows 4H chart. Last night went a bit above high from Feb 4th and closed about 7 pips higher than Feb 4th close but might be a double top for now until next test.
Im more of a fundamental trader so I tend to trade with fundamentals rather than technical. So I short on the highs rather than long on the lows.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #238
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:33pm Feb 22, 2016 5:33pm
Good information guys. And it's nice to see the traders positions from various brokers. Looks like overall the majority of retail traders are thinking short. I'm pretty sure the "big money" is long.

As for Price Action price has rallied 170pips from Friday's lows and we've barely managed to get a 25pip pullback from the highs of today! The sellers are either stuck in losing trades or there are just still more buyers than sellers. I'm not going to fight the trend, I'll leave that up to you guys. And I do hope it comes down for you guys to make some pips!
  • #239
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:42pm Feb 22, 2016 5:42pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i usually check oanda to get market sentiment. with its volume of about $6 billion a day, it more or less represents positioning of traders from other major brokers too. currently there is still some balance between sellers and buyers. also check saxo capital markets, over $13 billion daily volume. it is showing bigger limit orders around 7300 and currently seller/buyer order ratio is 46/54 {image}
great, thank you for this one
  • #240
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:46pm Feb 22, 2016 5:46pm
Quoting PA is King
Good information guys. And it's nice to see the traders positions from various brokers. Looks like overall the majority of retail traders are thinking short. I'm pretty sure the "big money" is long. As for Price Action price has rallied 170pips from Friday's lows and we've barely managed to get a 25pip pullback from the highs of today! The sellers are either stuck in losing trades or there are just still more buyers than sellers. I'm not going to fight the trend, I'll leave that up to you guys.
There are alot of traders stuck in shorts and as low as .68950. A lot of traders were targeting .67 and lower
Im stuck in a short myself at .70330 but only a small position so its real effect to my account equity. running at 5% equity DD at the moment.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
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