Big bullish daily pinbar, big bullish 4hr candle, bullish weekly candle...still looks like buying dips on Aussie is your safest trade. Price hasn't gone down and stayed down for 5 weeks now.
- #203
- Feb 19, 2016 7:32pm Feb 19, 2016 7:32pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,946 Posts
I believe that PA's comments are valid but anyone who pays attention in the thread might note that I've been biased to short. PA and I can both be right as we trade different timeframes and you will never catch me shorting a bottom (or longing a top). I made my pips on the way down but missed all the pips on the way up because I was asleep and my trading criteria for longs wouldn't have been met. Have a great weekend everyone!
- #205
- Feb 21, 2016 10:37pm Feb 21, 2016 10:37pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,137 Posts
I am now looking for a sell aud 1hr chart says down but not entered yet will wait for Europe to open , but I have been wrong many times 
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
- #206
- Feb 22, 2016 12:39am Feb 22, 2016 12:39am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,946 Posts
That would be okay, we need another dip in order to buy. 
- #208
- Feb 22, 2016 3:13am Feb 22, 2016 3:13am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,946 Posts
We just broke above last weeks highs so now we have a higher high! Uptrend still going strong! Hope no one got caught short. Price has gone straight up 130pips from Friday's lows without much more than a 20pip pullback. Last weeks Bad AUD data and Good USD data has been ignored by the market...that should send a strong statement to you as to the least riskiest direction to trade. Price Action is King!
- #210
- Feb 22, 2016 5:25am Feb 22, 2016 5:25am
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,137 Posts
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
- #211
- Feb 22, 2016 7:56am Feb 22, 2016 7:56am
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
As Above, So Below
- #213
- Feb 22, 2016 8:34am Feb 22, 2016 8:34am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,946 Posts
{quote} I thought you would still have some of that handful of shorts tashkent. As i recall you were anticipating this rise to increase shorts at higher level. I closed my two longs and looking to short. I'm biased towards lower levels too. The Aussie economy doesn't justify a rise....I think it's only the decline in USD and market manipulators pushing it up. The Aussie government is hurting from loss of royalties and taxes from commodities. The latest big loss is a reduction of royalties from all the gas wells that have come on line... they always...
I'm not sure about the decline in USD as the E/U and G/U are tanking(USD strength) and U/J and U/Chf are heading up...again USD strength. USD is only weaker against AUD, NZD, and CAD.
But I fully agree the market is manipulated by the market makers!
- #214
- Feb 22, 2016 8:36am Feb 22, 2016 8:36am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,946 Posts
While there are many many ways to trade, I stress to the newer traders to forex, PLEASE trade with the trend until you get some experience! Todays is a perfect example...nearly 150pip straight up on Aussie since Friday's lows with nothing more than a 20pip pullback at any point. Your highest chance of a winning trade is ALWAYS with the trend! Don't blow your account trying to call tops&bottoms!
- #216
- Feb 22, 2016 8:45am Feb 22, 2016 8:45am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,788 Posts
{quote} I'm not sure about the decline in USD as the E/U and G/U are tanking(USD strength) and U/J and U/Chf are heading up...again USD strength. USD is only weaker against AUD, NZD, and CAD. But I fully agree the market is manipulated by the market makers!
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1456003010
- #217
- Feb 22, 2016 8:54am Feb 22, 2016 8:54am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,946 Posts
{quote} Hi PA I was referring to recent drops in USD, not so much what's happening today. The UJ was a good example, but agree it's going been going up today, and it took a little of my money with it too. I borrowed this chart from a post by Ill-b-back {image}
Ah, I gotcha now. Makes sense, USD has been strengthening for a couple years now...but as we know, nothing trends one way forever. The tide will turn. I just don't think today(as I'm mainly a day trader) is the right day to trade shorting Aussie.
Happy Trading!
- #219
- Feb 22, 2016 8:58am Feb 22, 2016 8:58am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,946 Posts
{quote} PA I have been following all of your Aussie dollar posts, and you have been spot on the mark with them, but I would suspect that that break above the longer term downtrend is likely to be a false break out. It seems to me that the downtrend line there is likely to put a cap on further rises.
- #220
- Feb 22, 2016 9:06am Feb 22, 2016 9:06am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,788 Posts
{quote} Keep an eye on it and find out. Just like those "false" breakouts below the 4hr uptrend line I drew that never closed below the line...watch and see if this one closes above it or not. If it does close above it, for it to continue higher either 1) it will keep going straight up as most traders are caught short and the market makers want to take their money or 2) price will come back down to retest that broken trendline and then head back up. But if price comes back down and closes below it, then again...false breakout. I don't control the...
The long term downtrend line is likely to be a strong point of resistance due to it's long term formation. I have definitely learned some things from following your posts. It would not surprise me if you teach me another lesson now. Still, I've ventured one little short with tight stop at .7225, but I'm likely to only scalp a few pips if any.
