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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,241
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:54pm Feb 19, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
They can justifiably wimp out for March but it's surely touch and go after that, data willing, provided the markets don't run the lows again. Not expecting much from the S&P
MY gut is that we won't see any extended rally action for US equities until after the Nov prexy election. Oil may have found a floor @ $26.x, but I'd bet it won't rally hard until there is something more substantial in the way of supply cuts from the strong hands - maybe at the June OPEC powwow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,242
  • Feb 19, 2016 4:30pm Feb 19, 2016 4:30pm
Bullish weekly close in Euro, slightly bullish in Equities and a neutral close in GOLD. Cheap tickets available for the short term legs in Dollar on the opening next week....

Month is pretty much set, expecting soft technical moves until March ...here not much to do with same levels, same plays, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,243
  • Feb 19, 2016 10:34pm Feb 19, 2016 10:34pm
Sigh....thought this week with US Equities and US data that it would be enough to give EU a push. Guess, I wait and learn longer. Would like to purchase more cheap seats but can't because of my positions. Let my mistake be a lesson on timing. I sit and wait. Rode the .1370 handle down but could NOT exit trades due to ones at .0920 and ect.


Will continue to wait. At least my leverage is decent to sustain these moves.

Thanks for Bullish map sisse. Wish it read different but I will wait it out.
  • #139,244
  • Feb 20, 2016 7:58am Feb 20, 2016 7:58am
Quoting IMARICH1
...Sigh....Would like to purchase more cheap seats but can't because of my positions.... I sit and wait.... could NOT exit trades due to ones at .0920 and ect....
That doesn't make things any easier for you or others in U.S (Luckily we don't have that restriction here in Europe). Maybe you could try placing trades with different brokers & then you'd have more options to close trades whenever it's best to your advantage? (that's if you haven't done this already of course!).

Best of luck
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #139,245
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:04am Feb 21, 2016 3:04am
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-sau...t-bites-2016-2

is the double bottom in? make it a triple? crash to new lows? tick tock....is the rebound crude train about head north, leaving the $20 handle station behind for years n years?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,246
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:46am Feb 21, 2016 3:46am
follow-up to last sunday eurUsd post.

Quoting rioMario
... so to me a fair price until central banks in march would be around 1.11 but there is a third main euro driver: risk-off. I personally took some short on thursday night (european time) opec tweet. China holding and a quick start from equities (european above all) should result in a quick test of 1.116 since the first session of the week....
as expected risk-off fading and euro back hovering around 1.11.

I see no clear edge on the instrument at the moment so waiting for march CBs or a serious Oil rumour confirmation (see fool's post)

have a nice sunday everyone!
  • #139,247
  • Edited 6:26am Feb 22, 2016 6:07am | Edited 6:26am
Hello everyone!!

Terrible numbers in EU and 1,108 lost intraday. Last week I played (as shown in my previous posts) the short term swing fading the 1,134 and exited on 1,108. Plus I completely was alligned with sisses map of a potentional short term swing up coming next, i.e. this week - as suggested by the chart . The swing was technically very expected + fundamentally possible (there are no major data this week - and the bigger ones are expected to just reconfirtm the long term macro trends).

However, the break today is very deep - which leaves me wondering if NY is gonna take it back - should I position for the short term up? Or If the deterioration of EU manufacturing and services is so strong - germany flop was quite spectacular x on the other hand its just preliminary - that euro has really given up the 1,108 lvl for today - which is lvl important for short term and mid term too. In this conversation is understood just as a one of those short term lvls.

If u guys have any idea/plan - u more than welcome to share
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  • #139,248
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:03am Feb 22, 2016 7:03am
Strong European session over after a very important mover and shaker from the weekend coming from Europe.

Brexit has a date and EU uncertainty is officially on the table. Europe will enter in the driver sit for the first time this year. As expected since last year, Game Changer triggered from the UK:

--> Changing mid term outlook in the Pound from sell to Strong Sell
--> Changingmid term outlook in UK Equities especially (European equities in general) from Neutral to Sell
--> Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from sell to Neutral

Euro and Sterling are set to get hammered in the upcoming months. Brexit will trigger a major short term wave on risk all over Europe but until June/July uncertainty will be the primary driver ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,249
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:18am Feb 22, 2016 7:18am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Looking for another low in to 112.70's. If U/J wont turn before 112.5x, 112.0x is next place to chance longs...
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Shifting to bullish play from now on - towards 119's U/J M5: {image}
very well done

Quoting sisse
{quote} On the rest of the board, dovish FED play is over until next month with Euro aligning for a tradable farewell short term rally (1.108x -> 1.127x -> max ext 1.1332x) on Equities realigning till next month. We pretty much have set the high of this month. sisse
hello sisse, are you still playing this move or did the lost of 1.108x cancel it ?
  • #139,250
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:24am Feb 22, 2016 7:24am
Quoting chester123
Hello everyone!! Terrible numbers in EU and 1,108 lost intraday. Last week I played (as shown in my previous posts) the short term swing fading the 1,134 and exited on 1,108. Plus I completely was alligned with sisses map of a potentional short term swing up coming next, i.e. this week - as suggested by the chart . The swing was technically very expected + fundamentally possible (there are no major data this week - and the bigger ones are expected to just reconfirtm the long term macro trends). However, the break today is very deep - which leaves...
Same like you was fully short loaded friday, but I changed everything when our prefered ff oracle spoke about this potential leg up.
I hedged these longs today while loosing 1.108x and I am now expecting an attack on 1.097x. GL !
  • #139,251
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:31am Feb 22, 2016 7:31am
I didn't see this short term leg up that you guys saw (sissie, chester123 ect). With good US Data, OIL and Equities holding their handles 30.XX and 1900, I expected the MID TERM LEG to be slowly starting. Nevertheless, with the UK DATA today, I am not seeing why this SHORT term leg would develop now.

Still looking for the .0806/.079X handled for a possible bounce for one of the short term legs within the MID TERM LEG.
  • #139,252
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:41am Feb 22, 2016 7:41am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Same like you was fully short loaded friday, but I changed everything when our prefered ff oracle spoke about this potential leg up. I hedged these longs today while loosing 1.108x and I am now expecting an attack on 1.097x. GL !
lol, I dont open/close trades as "our ff oracle" says I used to 1,108 was a normal target for the short term swing where I closed as planned from the very beginning; 1,102 extension. The closes on D/W last week indicated 1,108 gonna hold and terminate the short term swing. The contra-up leg was a natural continuation given the lack of macro-information till the next month.

Whats true though I did not expect the 1,108 to be lost intraday so right now Im not alligned with the E/U on short term - but well see

Quoting IMARICH1
I didn't see this short term leg up that you guys saw (sissie, chester123 ect). With good US Data, OIL and Equities holding their handles 30.XX and 1900, I expected the MID TERM LEG to be slowly starting. Nevertheless, with the UK DATA today, I am not seeing why this SHORT term leg would develop now. Still looking for the .0806/.079X handled for a possible bounce for one of the short term legs within the MID TERM LEG.
I would say 1,0806 is way too stretched for the recent short term swing down - I think only some clear action/information from ECB/FED could get us there = could crack 1,097. But that is not gonna happen until next month.

Just wondering, what do u mean by today UK data Imarich1?
P.S.: check your private messages imarich1
  • #139,253
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:54am Feb 22, 2016 7:54am
Quoting chester123
{quote} lol, I dont open/close trades as "our ff oracle" says 1,108 was a normal target for the short term swing where I closed as planned from the very beginning; 1,102 extension. The closes on D/W last week indicated 1,108 gonna hold and terminate the short term swing. The contra-up leg was a natural continuation given the lack of macro-information till the next month. Whats true though I did not expect the 1,108 to be lost intraday so right now Im not alligned with the E/U on short term - but well see

technically this potential leg up made sense to my eyes only with the close on friday, when 1.108x hold and when we nearly get back to 1.114x.
But before with the very good inflation data, I loaded many shorts (fundamentaly I completely agree with IMARICH1 post) and, yes, I confess , I change everything when I saw Sisse post..... Hard to ignore what he is posting...
  • #139,254
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:59am Feb 22, 2016 7:59am
Quoting IMARICH1
I didn't see this short term leg up that you guys saw (sissie, chester123 act).....
We have a game changer in play watch-out for a major realigning in correlation across the board in the upcoming days. For the short term leg you are mentioning, the handle is protected until the cut later. Knocking that level will be enough for a run to test key 1.097x. to the other side 1.108x is the only level in play.

Markets are set to complete the Equities leg (crumbs away for NY) and then the real macro flows will start....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,255
  • Feb 22, 2016 8:10am Feb 22, 2016 8:10am
Quoting sisse
{quote} We have a game changer in play watch-out for a major realigning in correlation across the board in the upcoming days. For the short term leg you are mentioning, the handle is protected until the cut later. Knocking that level will be enough for a run to test key 1.097x. to the other side 1.108x is the only level in play. Markets are set to complete the Equities leg (crumbs away for NY) and then the real macro flows will start.... sisse
sisse, can u write more on this "game changer". Is it the equities finishing the short term leg? I mean..... I have no idea what u mean.
  • #139,256
  • Edited 9:31am Feb 22, 2016 8:23am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, can u write more on this "game changer". Is it the equities finishing the short term leg? I mean..... I have no idea what u mean.
Sure.

Quoting sisse
very important mover and shaker from the weekend ... Brexit has a date and EU uncertainty is officially on the table. Europe will enter in the driver sit for the first time this year. As expected since last year, Game Changer triggered from the UK:
The UK just set the day for the Referendum for the UK to leave the EU. This is one of the risk event expected for this year we discussed on the yearly outlook.

There is going to be some drama and soap opera the closer we get to the day but more importantly it will trigger a major uncertainty in Europe as the whole EU project is on the table. The 2 major factors in play:

1. On the Equities front (both in the UK [especially] and in the rest of Europe) 99.99% of any major decision and investment will be put on hold until the referendum is clear. If the UK stays is back to normal if not is a major ??? but 100% lots of European related business headquarters (especially in baking) that are bases in London (but also major industries and business in other parts of the UK) will have to move some or all of the operation bases somewhere inside the EU.....

2. On the Sterling side, uncertainty will kill the pound (nobody will hold a 'hot potato' on a risk play). If the UK leave the EU the slow and painful dead of the Sterling as world currency will start taking some form and I wont be surprise if GBP reach parity in the mid term. Basically Sterling is set to get hammered for the next few months from any outcome (risk/uncertainty or exit)

Although the burden of the risk play is on the UK and Sterling, the uncertainty of a complete destruction of the EU as consequences will have huge impact especially in the current circumstances making European equites only attractive in the EuroZone via ECB QE but beyond that a Brexit will have sever economic blow [short term] in the whole continent until things gets clearer...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,257
  • Feb 22, 2016 8:38am Feb 22, 2016 8:38am
chester123,

I was referring to the EUR data this morning-sorry I put UK. However, this shows Manufacturing is an ISSUE in EU and across the board it is an issue. US is doing better (not great-but better) and US data shows normalization with a rate hike should be factored in and ECB should be looking at more QE for MARCH. Got your PM thanks.

.0806 is a stretch. However, I am just pointing out where I think PA may go for another good bounce if .097X is tested and broken. Lots of support there just as with .097X. But the .097X is a FUNDY and TECH level whereas .0806/.079X is more TECH.

sisse,

Thanks sisse. The Short term leg I was referring to was the one you mapped to the possible .12XX/.13xx handle. I didn't see it as I was set for that attack on the .108X -->.097X-->.0860-->.0806/.079X.

You are referring to the Equities set for the last crumbs and then MACRO flows. I assume you mean the US Equities are set for the attack on the .1895 handle and once completed then correlation and re-alignment with markets complete?

I am trying to re-evaluate my "seats" for the MID TERM Leg as I may want to let go of my seats at .0920/ handle if PA is NOT going to make it there for now before making a last Short LEG up to .12XX/.13XX handle. I can take a wash with profit and loss and then get better "cheap seats".

However, with the GAME CHANGER in EU, I don't see why this LEG up would even be in the cards for now..........
  • #139,258
  • Edited 8:49am Feb 22, 2016 8:38am | Edited 8:49am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sure. {quote} The UK just set the day for the Referendum for the UK to leave the EU. This is one of the risk event expected for this year we discussed on the yearly outlook. There is going to be some drama and soap opera the closer we get to the day but more importantly it will trigger a major uncertainty in Europe as the whole EU project is on the table. The 2 major factors in play: 1. On the Equities front (both in the UK [especially] and in the rest of Europe) 99.99% of any major decision and investment will be put on hold until...
OK, Im back on track now. I had some mental failure Thank you.

Quoting sisse
{quote} We have a game changer in play watch-out for a major realigning in correlation across the board in the upcoming days. For the short term leg you are mentioning, the handle is protected until the cut later. Knocking that level will be enough for a run to test key 1.097x. to the other side 1.108x is the only level in play. Markets are set to complete the Equities leg (crumbs away for NY) and then the real macro flows will start.... sisse
So the "brexit" is the game changer and the implication of that is a "realignment of the correlation across the board". The realignment u talk about is what you described in your last post? I.e. the British equities are in mid term sell/gonna weight on EU equities generally (both gonna lose correlation to world equities in some degree) + pound in strong sell mid term/adding some pressure on Euro too via the uncertainty. Agree? Or you mean something else?
  • #139,259
  • Feb 22, 2016 8:44am Feb 22, 2016 8:44am
Just saw your posts to chester123....seems we had a similar question and you explained it very well! Thanks again. You have so much insight into WORLD markets with how everything affects each other. I am not sure that could ever be achieved by me. You have to be so connected to it.

Your info is so invaluable to this thread!
  • #139,260
  • Feb 22, 2016 9:21am Feb 22, 2016 9:21am
For me cheap tickets available ... Or sisse style " choose your poison time" ...
Re-Incarnated
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