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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #16,801
  • Feb 21, 2016 9:36pm Feb 21, 2016 9:36pm
Quoting genghistar
Sensei Mr. Damian Castilla, Notwithstanding I wish to sincerely congratulate you and wish you every success with your collaboration with Mr S Carney who I have great respect as a great trading conceptor. GS.
Thank you. I hope our alliance can continue to impact the trading community in a positive and meaningful way. We share like minded goals.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,802
  • Feb 21, 2016 10:22pm Feb 21, 2016 10:22pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Okay Traders, Here is the short video I promised you all yesterday. I hope it has value and again please comment and let me know if it helped.
Mr. Pip, thanks a lot for the video. It is really helpful.
As for now, I expect a NSH on Eur/Usd. The level of NSH will depend on how deep correction will be. But the momentum of correction is weak.
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  • #16,803
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:31am Feb 22, 2016 2:31am
Hi everyone....

Here is my expectation (white lines) on GU 5 min.... I'm expecting a pullback to the blue area of structure and then a NSL. But the strong momentum may cause the pullback to not go that deep. What do you guys think??

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I know we should only be posting EU 15m charts, but i have a very limited time to trade most days. Can only trade the first 3 hours from london open.
I'll try to post only EU with a few exceptions we you dont mind.

Asmodai
  • #16,804
  • Feb 22, 2016 3:41am Feb 22, 2016 3:41am
Haven't had time to watch the last video yet. I will definitely watch it later today. These are priceless gems that we simply cannot afford loosing...
but, for the moment here is my trade on EU. It is a counter-trend trade and the probability of being wrong is not low. Nevertheless, I took it (real account, it's not demo). the reason are in the images below. Let's see how it goes.
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  • #16,805
  • Feb 22, 2016 3:43am Feb 22, 2016 3:43am
forgot to mention that as soon as market shoots higher then that congestion zone where it is right now, I move my SL to breakeven.
  • #16,806
  • Feb 22, 2016 3:49am Feb 22, 2016 3:49am
Quoting Asmodai
Hi everyone.... Here is my expectation (white lines) on GU 5 min.... I'm expecting a pullback to the blue area of structure and then a NSL. But the strong momentum may cause the pullback to not go that deep. What do you guys think?? {image} I know we should only be posting EU 15m charts, but i have a very limited time to trade most days. Can only trade the first 3 hours from London open. I'll try to post only EU with a few exceptions we you dont mind. Asmodai
I am looking at the same thing (all be it on the 233 tick chart) however, the Projection is strong, the momentum is strong and the previous depth is very shallow, I am expecting a 1:1 pull back, which puts My lower boundary at the 1.1093 mark, and expecting more of a bounce of the 38 fib line, as my expectation in price is to go lower (with very little in the way to complete the 1:1, which will be c. 161.8 fib extension). my upper boundary is in the region of 1.095.


My analysis is a bit after yours, so I can already see that we have had a bounce of my shaded area, but i still expect it to retest this area (and it is pretty much just below my boundary.

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  • #16,807
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:00am Feb 22, 2016 4:00am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Okay Traders, Here is the short video I promised you all yesterday. I hope it has value and again please comment and let me know if it helped. https://youtu.be/WIrwYSvw3RY
Great video!! Answered many questions,and took me another step further !
learn more , earn more
  • #16,808
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:07am Feb 22, 2016 4:07am
Quoting rolandW
{quote} I am looking at the same thing (all be it on the 233 tick chart) however, the Projection is strong, the momentum is strong and the previous depth is very shallow, I am expecting a 1:1 pull back, which puts My lower boundary at the 1.1093 mark, and expecting more of a bounce of the 38 fib line, as my expectation in price is to go lower (with very little in the way to complete the 1:1, which will be c. 161.8 fib extension). my upper boundary is in the region of 1.095. My analysis is a bit after yours, so I can already see that we have had...
A bit after i posted my chart and after seeing the 38 fib being respected i changed my expectations to the same as you, a 1:1 to the 161.8 ..... i actually took a practice trade on that, but got stopped for a small profit after moving my stop when i saw price stall a bit.

Asmodai
  • #16,809
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:08am Feb 22, 2016 4:08am
Quoting rolandW
{quote} I am looking at the same thing (all be it on the 233 tick chart) however, the Projection is strong, the momentum is strong and the previous depth is very shallow, I am expecting a 1:1 pull back, which puts My lower boundary at the 1.1093 mark, and expecting more of a bounce of the 38 fib line, as my expectation in price is to go lower (with very little in the way to complete the 1:1, which will be c. 161.8 fib extension). my upper boundary is in the region of 1.095. My analysis is a bit after yours, so I can already see that we have had...
well, apparently I was wrong. S.L hit and -13 pips today. I knew that it was counter trend so.... now we look for a PB and change our bias to the downside...hehe
  • #16,810
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:09am Feb 22, 2016 4:09am
Quoting Asmodai
{quote} A bit after i posted my chart and after seeing the 38 fib being respected i changed my expectations to the same as you, a 1:1 to the 161.8 ..... i actually took a practice trade on that, but got stopped for a small profit after moving my stop when i saw price stall a bit. Asmodai


I didnt take it, as my price never reached the 38.2%... but nicely in profit if you took it at the retest!

more importantly (for me at least!) is that it is almost down to that 161.8%... almost makes it looks like I am starting to understand this!
  • #16,811
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:27am Feb 22, 2016 4:27am
Quoting rolandW
{quote} I didnt take it, as my price never reached the 38.2%... but nicely in profit if you took it at the retest! more importantly (for me at least!) is that it is almost down to that 161.8%... almost makes it looks like I am starting to understand this!
Just noticed that your chart was from EU.... mine was GU, thats why some numbers didnt seem right.

Asmodai
  • #16,812
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:31am Feb 22, 2016 4:31am
Quoting Asmodai
{quote} Just noticed that your chart was from EU.... mine was GU, thats why some numbers didnt seem right. Asmodai
Haha, I was supposed to be responding to Paren's post... whoops!

I thought your chart looked a bit different to mine, but the GBP and the EUR does follow the same sort of pattern... sort of...!
  • #16,813
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:43am Feb 22, 2016 4:43am
Hi Mr Pip,

Just a quick question. You say you never enter trades unless the pullback reaches 38.2% retracement. Would that only be true if there was no structure - so basically a bit of a run away train, and a short pull back, you woudl be wanting to see at least the 38.2% retracement?


If you are expecting a shallow retracement, or a completion of a 1:1 pull back, say at the 23.6% retracement level, which is supported by structure, woudl you take the trade.

I know i dont have the chart experience with this system as you, but i see quite a few 1:1's and 23.6% retracement in a runaway train environment which should mean that you can profit and jump on the trend at this point (the trade in the above chart was just this scenario)

Or the flip side is that there is too much risk - but i think that woudl only be true on fixed lots... i prefer percentage of account, so regardelss of where my entry, my risk is the same, whether it is a deep pull back or shallow pullback, the only difference is profit potential...
  • #16,814
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:54am Feb 22, 2016 4:54am
what do expect from the market now that we (I) took a loss? it's just my thoughts, so don't follow it. ok? I'm simply trying to see if I can predict the move.
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  • #16,815
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:54am Feb 22, 2016 4:54am
Hi all,
if anybody find out some discrepancies response to this post please. Thank you for your feedback

regards,
cmelak
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  • #16,816
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:09am Feb 22, 2016 5:09am
Quoting Cmelak
Hi all, if anybody find out some discrepancies response to this post please. Thank you for your feedback regards, cmelak {image}
I think you are not quite looking at the main swings - the more detail you go into, the harder it is to read the market.

Your main swing shoudl be from the 9374 area (right at the bottom left of the chart, all the way up to the 9551 area.

The NSX's that you have noted are more hiccups in price... The pull back would only be a retracment of about 23% on the fib - and not a complex correction. It then goes on to make the next NSH and looks like it is still in the same move.

A little trick i use (as i have difficulty of filtering out the noise, and as i look through the charts i start focusing more and more on the detail) is to simply zoom out. Don't worry about being able to see the candle colour... but it will be far easier to identify the CLEAR highs and lows.

It is not really a pull back if there are only 3 candles involved! . It makes the job SO much easier when the moves are clear...

I would probably say that your analysis does seem correct though, but very granular!
  • #16,817
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:10am Feb 22, 2016 5:10am
Quoting Cmelak
Hi all, if anybody find out some discrepancies response to this post please. Thank you for your feedback regards, cmelak {image}
Dont look every detail/small retracement, we simply assume it a swing. U will go crazy if u look every movement especially since u post M1 chart
  • #16,818
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:14am Feb 22, 2016 5:14am
​Currently a winning trade- 5 pips booked in on NSL... lets see how this one will go - continuation of the previous move down, so looks pretty similar... lets hope this one goes to the 161.8 extension as well!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD2.JPG Size: 145 KB
  • #16,819
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:18am Feb 22, 2016 5:18am
Quoting tiong999
{quote} Dont look every detail/small retracement, we simply assume it a swing. U will go crazy if u look every movement especially since u post M1 chart
yes ok understand what do you mean but it doesnt matter if you look at price on M1, weekly, range or tick bars, price is price. thanks
  • #16,820
  • Feb 22, 2016 5:22am Feb 22, 2016 5:22am
Quoting rolandW
{quote} I think you are not quite looking at the main swings - the more detail you go into, the harder it is to read the market. Your main swing shoudl be from the 9374 area (right at the bottom left of the chart, all the way up to the 9551 area. The NSX's that you have noted are more hiccups in price... The pull back would only be a retracment of about 23% on the fib - and not a complex correction. It then goes on to make the next NSH and looks like it is still in the same move. A little trick i use (as i have difficulty of filtering out the noise,...
thanks for your opinion. Id like to describe for this particular chart the price structure more in detail and on M1 chart also 3 bars can create pullback. The pullback as i understood from vids can be defined by three stages (shallow, medium and deep) 23 50 78 fib % .
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