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Planetary Cycles Trading (EUR/USD)

  • #6,701
  • Feb 17, 2016 8:45pm Feb 17, 2016 8:45pm
Quoting Pattrader
{quote} Dear Jnevins, highly appreciate your shared views here. Can you pls inform how to get this bradley indicator on the mt4 eur/usd chart? Thank you very much in advance Kindest and best regards Bergytrader

Hello BergyPattrader,

I use Timing Solution software to find the Bradley curve... it is a 1 click solution.... Timingsolution.com

JNevins
  • #6,702
  • Feb 17, 2016 8:46pm Feb 17, 2016 8:46pm
Quoting maximus71
{quote} hi, which software and indicator are you using on your chart? Thanks

Astrolog (free) to find the positions then I add the lines manually to the MT4 chart....
  • #6,703
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:24pm Feb 17, 2016 9:24pm
Quoting WarEagle
{quote} For example, the first chart below has last 6 instances of moon trine Venus while the moon was in either a fire or earth sign (the price bars are colored based on the element of the moon, vertical line is the aspect). On the 30 minute chart a few of them seem to indicate changes in trend, but not all moves are significant, some only last a couple of bars. }
Great to have you aboard WarEagle.... I took a look at Moon trine Venus... as there were only 3 instances in the last month, I went to the hourly EUR/USD chart to see if there was a pattern... in all 3 instances, the market went down during a 2 degree orb of that aspect. Now the thing to do is check the last 36 instances over the last year to see if the pattern holds.

Trade plan: as Moon begins a trine aspect with Venus on the 1 hr EUR/USD chart, go short. Close trade at end of aspect. Does it work?

For those wanting to know how I find the aspects a fast and free way is to use Astrolog and then manually place vertical line on your chart.

****EDIT**** Mistake made... this is Moon Square Venus.... NOT Trine... Update to follow
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: moon trine venus.jpg Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: moon venus.JPG Size: 81 KB
  • #6,704
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:42pm Feb 17, 2016 9:42pm
Moon Trine Venus every instance back to 18 November... 1 degree orb... Timing Solution Software.... Not so hot so far....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: moon t ven.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #6,705
  • Feb 18, 2016 2:22am Feb 18, 2016 2:22am
Quoting jnevins
{quote} Hello BergyPattrader, I use Timing Solution software to find the Bradley curve... it is a 1 click solution.... Timingsolution.com JNevins
Thks I'll start testing and evaluate to see if it could work for me, thank you for your support.
happy trading
Trade what you see not what you think,..happy trading
  • #6,706
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:46am Feb 18, 2016 10:46am
Thanks jnevins, I like the simplicity of your mechanical approach. Just to get a look at other occurrences I went back to May of last year (random choice, its just how far back the data on my chart went) and put up both the Mo-Ve trines (chart 1) and squares (chart 2). Since KecoaKecil mentioned using the Moon's element I left that on the chart as well, but for these charts I showed each sequential occurrence regardless of the sign the moon was in. The vertical line is set where the Moon-Venus difference for each aspect is exact. For the trines I am using 120 and 240 degrees (skipping the conjunction) and for squares I am using the 90 and 270 degree differences (skipping the conjunctions and oppositions). In order to use an orb you can simply start the analysis from a certain number of bars before and after the line. Since this is an hourly chart and the moon moves about 14 degrees per day (while Venus movement is accordingly very small) we can estimate 1 degree of movement for 2 hourly bars. So to look at a 2 degree orb (1 degree either side of exact) we would take 4 bars before to 4 bars after to see the effect. In your examples it looks like you are using 2 degrees before and after exact (so 4 degree orb for the entire aspect) since the total time of the effect is around 15-16 hours. In that case you can start 8 bars before to 8 bars after. I would say your initial "mistake" of using squares looks pretty good. Obviously, more testing is required. Seems like TimingSolution would be ideal for this...don't they have a statistical module that can test for before and after an aspect? (I don't have this software myself but had an older predecessor to TS that could do it).

One side note about the elements. If we filter for moon element (or quality can be used as well) then we will not have a regular number of signals in a month. This is due to the position of Venus at the time. As Venus moves, the location of the moon at the trine will shift over time, carrying it through the elements. You can see on the charts that each aspect moves forward through the elements so there will be periods where you get several in a row and periods where you get none for a month or so as the aspects are occurring in other elements.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MoonElements_MoVeTrine.png Size: 78 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: MoonElements_MoVeSquare.png Size: 101 KB
  • #6,707
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:38pm Feb 18, 2016 10:38pm
Hi War Eagle,

I'll have more time to run your charts against mine tomorrow... in the meantime here is a simple trade plan with a 100% success rate over the last year... Go short Moon Square Venus. Exit trade when your favorite oscillator turns up...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Moon Square Venus.jpg Size: 280 KB
  • #6,708
  • Feb 19, 2016 5:04pm Feb 19, 2016 5:04pm
Weekly Vertex in Libra wrap up....

The same stair step pattern occurred each trading day this week... prices came down during the London session and turned around for an average 50 pip gain on the EUR/USD this week. The turn-around occurred when The Vertex was in Libra... When London reopened, the down trend resumed.

It is important to note that Vertex in Libra does not mean price will go up all the time.... rather it is an inflection or energetic point where a trend change can occur. One trade plan could be to go long when Vertex is in Libra.... exit trade when the MACD (6,14,6) tops out and starts to head down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,709
  • Feb 20, 2016 9:49pm Feb 20, 2016 9:49pm
Quoting WarEagle
Thanks jnevins, I like the simplicity of your mechanical approach. Just to get a look at other occurrences I went back to May of last year (random choice, its just how far back the data on my chart went) and put up both the Mo-Ve trines (chart 1) and squares (chart 2). Since KecoaKecil mentioned using the Moon's element I left that on the chart as well, but for these charts I showed each sequential occurrence regardless of the sign the moon was in. The vertical line is set where the Moon-Venus difference for each aspect is exact. For the trines...

Here is my take on Moon/Venus square on EUR/USD for more than a year.... 30 Dec, 2014 to present.... The Timing solution chart shows the whole period but zoomed all the way out, it is tough to see specific price action right after the aspect....



30 Dec down 2014
15 Jan down 2015
29 Jan down
16 Mar Up
30 Mar down
15 Apr down
29 Apr down
14 May down
29 may sideways but near end of day Friday price went down on open
12 June Same.. aspect occurred in last hr of week, price opened much lower
08 Aug down
21 Aug down
03 Sep down
18 Sep down
01 Oct down
16 Oct down
30 Oct down
15 Dec down
29 Dec down
14 Jan down
28 Jan down

Next occurrence is Sun, March 14 through market open until 7 am Monday morning GMT+2 hrs

In all just one occurrence when the market went up, March 16, 2015
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: moon ven square.JPG Size: 101 KB
  • #6,710
  • Feb 21, 2016 6:06am Feb 21, 2016 6:06am
EURUSD 24h Cycles,

sometimes we get 3 and sometimes 4 under cycles.............. example
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24h.jpg Size: 458 KB
  • #6,711
  • Edited Feb 22, 2016 9:33am Feb 21, 2016 12:24pm | Edited Feb 22, 2016 9:33am
Quoting bingo_bongoo
EURUSD 24h Cycles, sometimes we get 3 and sometimes 4 under cycles.............. example {image}
Bingo,

What are the vertical lines you placed on the chart? Funny, I woke up yesterday with the idea of placing your Hurst cycles indicator on a 15 min chart....

JN
  • #6,712
  • Feb 22, 2016 2:18am Feb 22, 2016 2:18am
Hi jnevins,

vertical lines indicates vertex in libra, beginning and end of the period.....

BBingo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd222.jpg Size: 559 KB
  • #6,713
  • Feb 22, 2016 4:58am Feb 22, 2016 4:58am
very impressive bingo.... Thanks to share... It works so well all the time ?
  • #6,714
  • Feb 22, 2016 6:08am Feb 22, 2016 6:08am
.......trends under control !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cycles112233.jpg Size: 512 KB
  • #6,715
  • Feb 22, 2016 7:28am Feb 22, 2016 7:28am
Quoting maximus71
very impressive bingo.... Thanks to share... It works so well all the time ?

Hello,

not always, but consider that every 24 hours...............market maker play a new cycle of 24 hours........ and we know it's something similar the last one !
  • #6,716
  • Edited 9:39am Feb 22, 2016 8:45am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting bingo_bongoo
Hi jnevins, vertical lines indicates vertex in libra, beginning and end of the period..... BBingo {image}
Great... thanks for confirming the finding...

Bingo I noticed that you set your time zone to GMT+1.... is that your server time? Next I see you have NY latitude and Longitude... You should make sure that the lat long is the same as the server time. Finally you can make permanent changes to the ASTROLOG.AS file so each time you open Astrolog, you will have the proper time and lat long and Vertex just where you need it.

Nice reversal on Vertex in Libra today.... I took a long trade.... (demo)
Attached Image
  • #6,717
  • Feb 22, 2016 9:48am Feb 22, 2016 9:48am
Thanks for showing your backtest work on the Mo square Ve jnevins, it looks very tradable.

On the vertex stuff I thought I would share an idea that I have used with the midheaven but it works the same with the vertex as well...basically earth's rotation through the day. Since the vertex in Libra window seems to have a turn somewhere in it but not necessarily known in advance one thing you can do is look at the previous few days and see where the turn occurred and then check that same point on the current day. Since the mc/asc/vx shift slightly each day, the turn will not always occur at the same time of day but will happen at the same position of the vertex.

So for example, in the chart (15min EURUSD, CST) on 2/16 we had a high (first blue vertical line). If we follow that down to the vertex line we see that the vertex (NY) was 192.64 (in Libra). Go over to that value on 2/17 and it occurs at the low (second blue vertical line). And another low on 2/18 as well. I did the same thing with the low on 2/16 using the yellow lines. Of course, eventually you will have a day that doesn't turn on that value so rather than use the same one over and over I will look for the significant turns the day before and use those points. As with anything, timing and money management are key because sometimes its difficult to tell if we are making a high or low based on the price action at the time so its not a holy grail or anything, but it works for scalping.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VertexTurns.png Size: 37 KB
  • #6,718
  • Feb 22, 2016 10:25am Feb 22, 2016 10:25am
Quoting WarEagle
Thanks for showing your backtest work on the Mo square Ve jnevins, it looks very tradable. On the vertex stuff I thought I would share an idea that I have used with the midheaven but it works the same with the vertex as well...basically earth's rotation through the day. Since the vertex in Libra window seems to have a turn somewhere in it but not necessarily known in advance one thing you can do is look at the previous few days and see where the turn occurred and then check that same point on the current day. Since the mc/asc/vx shift slightly each...
Thanks for posting your observations War Eagle... How is the bottom line derived? Is it an indicator in Tradestation?

I went back to Nov 2014 to see how Vertex in Libra was working when the time then was around 2 pm EST (entering Libra)... that is a pretty quiet time normally... the attached chart shows nice reaction (1 hr EUR/USD)... with 500 pips for the week if you exited at the peak of the opposite MACD as shown above....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ver 2014.JPG Size: 71 KB
  • #6,719
  • Feb 22, 2016 10:45am Feb 22, 2016 10:45am
Quoting jnevins
How is the bottom line derived? Is it an indicator in Tradestation?
It is a plot of the vertex with NYC coordinates. This is my own indicator I wrote for SierraChart so I could research some things. I got tired of doing everything manually in Astrolog, lol.
  • #6,720
  • Feb 23, 2016 9:18am Feb 23, 2016 9:18am
........another day......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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