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Flag trading the trend

  • #10,341
  • Feb 19, 2016 10:58am Feb 19, 2016 10:58am
potential b123 long from 42
  • #10,342
  • Feb 19, 2016 11:00am Feb 19, 2016 11:00am
Quoting The Cableguy
... HD forms, go on first parabolic....
Btw, CG, I felt your parabolic comments deserved a response, as I often agree with Al Brooks when he says (something like) that in a really strong swing, use any excuse to get in... it's just knowing when to do so ! So I get what you're trying to achieve...

I wish everyone great, indicator-free weekends, & an especially healing one to Sir Harold .
  • #10,343
  • Feb 19, 2016 11:07am Feb 19, 2016 11:07am
I trade to many took loss on the 42 long closed out today +19 and 176 for the week
  • #10,344
  • Feb 19, 2016 11:46am Feb 19, 2016 11:46am
Quoting Divergence
I trade to many took loss on the 42 long closed out today +19 and 176 for the week
Very choppy since about 11:35 EST imo.
  • #10,345
  • Feb 19, 2016 11:50am Feb 19, 2016 11:50am
combining cci ob/os with pb looks very reliable, e.g.


16th dec 2015
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym16dec15.png Size: 59 KB



19th feb 2016
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym19feb16.png Size: 60 KB
Become the casino
  • #10,346
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:05pm Feb 19, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Very choppy since about 11:35 EST imo.
you are right yesterday it worked today it didn't. remember bo Jackson he tried to get that entra yard and he hurt his leg so bad he was never the same. no more trying to get the extra yard. trading from 930 to 1130 no more ot unless I am in a trade just prior to 1130
  • #10,347
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:09pm Feb 19, 2016 12:09pm
Quoting erasmus66
combining cci ob/os with pb looks very reliable, e.g. 16th dec 2015 {image} 19th feb 2016 {image}
there were even a few more you didn't see but the thing seems to work there will be times you will miss a few winners but it will keep you out of more losers than winners. whatever can give you the slightest more edge I will use
  • #10,348
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:15pm Feb 19, 2016 12:15pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote}you are right yesterday it worked today it didn't. remember bo Jackson he tried to get that entra yard and he hurt his leg so bad he was never the same. no more trying to get the extra yard. trading from 930 to 1130 no more ot unless I am in a trade just prior to 1130
9:30 to 11:30 and 1:30 to 3:30 seem to be the sweet spots. I like to be finished by noon most days, however. The reason to do this business is to give one the means and the time to enjoy life. Though it took me a long time to get here, and too many days I do stick it out all day. The difficulty pulling away is that I really do enjoy this.
  • #10,349
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:32pm Feb 19, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting erasmus66
combining cci ob/os with pb looks very reliable, e.g. 16th dec 2015 {image} 19th feb 2016 {image}
One of the problems is that CCI uses typical price as input. The line chart is formed by connecting closing prices.

But the most important thing is that it works.
  • #10,350
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:33pm Feb 19, 2016 12:33pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} 9:30 to 11:30 and 1:30 to 3:30 seem to be the sweet spots. I like to be finished by noon most days, however. The reason to do this business is to give one the means and the time to enjoy life. Though it took me a long time to get here, and too many days I do stick it out all day. The difficulty pulling away is that I really do enjoy this.
that is the absolute truth. Even in the days when I was struggling it was the challenge to succeed trading for a living. This is perhaps the greatest job out there I love it too. But rules are rules and I broke them which means the moment I do that I am no longer trading in the zone. every rule must be obeyed in the trading plan otherwise you have no plan
  • #10,351
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:35pm Feb 19, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting moonmist
{quote} One of the problems is that CCI uses typical price as input. The line chart is formed by connecting close prices. But the most important thing is that it works.
mine is set to hlc 6period
  • #10,352
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:39pm Feb 19, 2016 12:39pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} mine is set to hlc 6 period
HLC/3 is typical price. CCI is very similar to Bollinger %B:

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index....4#post-4107471
  • #10,353
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:40pm Feb 19, 2016 12:40pm
Quoting jtrade
{quote} Btw, CG, I felt your parabolic comments deserved a response, as I often agree with Al Brooks when he says (something like) that in a really strong swing, use any excuse to get in... it's just knowing when to do so ! So I get what you're trying to achieve... I wish everyone great, indicator-free weekends, & an especially healing one to Sir Harold .

Yep JT, at first it was look for HD then a 123 to get back into trend, but they are far rarer than i was hoping, thus trying a simpler approach. I'm still tinkering as i do like 123's especially as the R:R should become skewed in your favour if they are at the end of corrective wave/start of new cycle...

I run another business and it's been taking up too much of my time lately to be able to test much. I'm planning on trying out a slightly different approach next week, trading a trend based more on the macd and including 123's. The double/triple bout of normal divergence (peak to peak), always seems to put pay to any Hidden divergence and gives either a good pullback or overall trend change and often starts with a 123.

Well... i need food! I will bid everyone a good weekend!
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #10,354
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:47pm Feb 19, 2016 12:47pm
Quoting moonmist
{quote} HLC/3 is typical price. CCI is very similar to Bollinger %B: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index....4#post-4107471
so I adjusted it to close and it really didn't change that much every signal was accounted for so to me as long as it works its ok with me
  • #10,355
  • Feb 19, 2016 1:17pm Feb 19, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote}that is the absolute truth. Even in the days when I was struggling it was the challenge to succeed trading for a living. This is perhaps the greatest job out there I love it too. But rules are rules and I broke them which means the moment I do that I am no longer trading in the zone. every rule must be obeyed in the trading plan otherwise you have no plan
excellent discussion!
  • #10,356
  • Feb 19, 2016 1:22pm Feb 19, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting JMaurice
I don't mean to disrupt this thread, but after wasting time with a number of prepackaged systems on here, I realized what I needed to do, thanks to this thread. And that was to actually look at my charts and back test until something that I understood actually produced some sort of consistent results. Thanks to some of the trade ideas contained in this thread, I feel that I've found something that works. Anyway, after performing a 500-trade back test, done in such a way in Excel that I could modify the management technique to see the outcomes. I...
Only you can decide for yourself which plan you will be able to implement and trade flawlessly. Looking at those numbers, the 1:1 looks like it would be a very easy ride emotionally, assuming I read that correctly - a 70%+ win rate with a net of 380+ ticks over the series. Holy Smokes, Batman - as Nike would say, "Just Do It!"
  • #10,357
  • Feb 19, 2016 1:26pm Feb 19, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting moonmist
{quote} What are your criteria for taking the pullback/continuation ? Just take it when you feel that price is trending strongly ? Thanks.
Hi moonmist,

Sorry for the delay getting back to you. My criteria for a pullback/continuation trade would be simply that there was enough of a pullback to register a district swing point on the line chart and that there was sufficient price space between the entry level and the next reasonable support/resistance target to make the trade a good risk/reward.
  • #10,358
  • Feb 19, 2016 1:40pm Feb 19, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Hi moonmist, Sorry for the delay getting back to you. My criteria for a pullback/continuation trade would be simply that there was enough of a pullback to register a district swing point on the line chart and that there was sufficient price space between the entry level and the next reasonable support/resistance target to make the trade a good risk/reward.
very logical no space no trade
  • #10,359
  • Feb 21, 2016 9:48am Feb 21, 2016 9:48am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Hi moonmist, Sorry for the delay getting back to you. My criteria for a pullback/continuation trade would be simply that there was enough of a pullback to register a district swing point on the line chart and that there was sufficient price space between the entry level and the next reasonable support/resistance target to make the trade a good risk/reward.
Thanks for the explanation. Last week was tough. Hopefully, this week will be better.
  • #10,360
  • Feb 21, 2016 3:21pm Feb 21, 2016 3:21pm
I love the psychology behind the fact that cherry picking trades, does not work.

You study a system, firstly by backtesting it appears to have a fantastic win rate, but of course, your brain is hard wired to see the immediate winning trades after a set-up and dismiss what you see in real time, thus it is already skewed as to favourable results and not the actual real time results.

Beyond this, lets say we have 6 trade set-ups in a session, 4 winners and 2 losers, seems like a great trading method, but you are still testing it out. Emotion gets involved and you sit out the first set-up. You still feel the need for the market to prove to you that it works. It results in a winner. You curse, but conversely, you feel a warm glow that you recognised it and it was indeed a winner.

The next set-up, you freeze again momentarily, miss the entry and it moves very rapidly in the trade direction and further away from your entry point. It becomes a second winner without you!

Right, now you are determined and you take the 3rd set-up... it is a loser!

You retire for a while licking your wounds until you witness the next two winning trades and it gives you enough courage to try again. You trade the next set-up for it to again be a loser!

Now, obviously we need to simply trade every single set-up and lose all emotion. Become a machine. A robot. But isn't it interesting how it works. You would not feel compelled to take the next trade after witnessing a failed set-up and yet statistically that would be the most likely to turn out a winner.

We are hard wired for this very scenario. This is also why very few people get past this sticking point. There is no such thing as a nailed on trade or a 100% success rate system, thus this is something almost every trader has to overcome to become consistently profitable.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
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