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  • #139,221
  • Feb 18, 2016 2:37am Feb 18, 2016 2:37am
{quote} Check back posts... ECB QE and soft FED coming soon to our theatres ...you can do the maths ...[/quote]

Sisse,
thanks for advice and guidance, did the maths, much clear view for me now.
  • #139,222
  • Edited 6:47am Feb 18, 2016 6:08am | Edited 6:47am
Quoting IMARICH1
Agreed! This is what I took from sisse's post. The extreme DOVISH FED play has already been baked/priced in and less DOVISH but still DOVISH locks the HIGHS already set in EU. Watching OIL hold the 29.XX handle and extend to holding 30.XX now, US Equities and DAX making gains and EU still holds the .1115 handle. Positioning?Hmmmm..... Would have thought with the markets reacting this way might push or nudge EU around .1080 prior to FED Minutes especially with another LL being set at around .110X
What I understand during these last 2 or 3 weeks is :

1.0970 to 1.114x (and around) was the dovish fed play
1.114x to 1.134x (and further) was the risk (china/oil) play

I deduce that :

-> being back to 1.114x and around stamps the end of the risk leg

-> breaking down 1.114x starts the retracement of the dovish fed leg that may lead to 1.0970 (through the no hikes announcement in march ? ie. sell the news?)

I am just wondering how/when to play market expectations for ECB QE extension.
  • #139,223
  • Edited 8:14am Feb 18, 2016 7:51am | Edited 8:14am
Replicant,

I would concur with your view. The FED Dovish play should have ended around .114X (YEARLY PIVOT); but, it didn't hold due to RISK with China/OIL which is why my trade or position there was foolish. I took this trade at the wrong TIME. Luckily, the area I had a STOP (STEEL STRONG [email protected] to 1.14XX) didn't get hit.

I had leverage well enough to sustain this move; but, learned something about my leverage and timing in this trade. As sisse pointed out, I took a trade in the middle of a RISK AVALANCHE.

I believe the MACRO numbers with employment and inflation are SOUND for another .25% increase. Perhaps the FED may do a little less but I believe we are inline for another hike. The Minutes do not match the Non-Farm, Unemployment and Manufacturing numbers not to mention the Short term bottom forming in OIL.

I am looking at .0970 getting a visit today (if NY plays) or tomorrow due to US DATA today showing again strength and reasons for the continued normalization of rate hikes.

I am looking to target at .0790 and waiting for another entry on a re-tracement. This may be the wrong play on this MID TERM LEG. I am looking to sisse to help me and chester123 with this. Managing capital and risk. We asked this question awhile back and hopefully will get some clarification as the MID TERM LEG Plays out.

But, I do agree with your take on levels and FA/TA.

Goodluck to you!
  • #139,224
  • Feb 18, 2016 7:53am Feb 18, 2016 7:53am
...and I will take that in the Euro. Clearing first target on the test 1.108x. We are pretty much done short term until further data. 1.108x holding the European close for a change of short term outlook from Sell to Neutral until Inflation numbers and prolly the rest of the month.

Quoting sisse
-->Changing short term outlook in european equities DAX from Neutral to Soft buy and as consequences today for currencies.

--> Changing short term outlook in Euro from Neutral to Sell
Well done to all riding the leg from the 1.13xx handle and big shout to IMARICH1... Market have spoken, I hope market have taught you a very important trading lesson....

Quoting sisse
... what would you think are the odds that the current levels (breach to the the 1.13xx) being just a wick in the Euro Weekly candle?.
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,225
  • Feb 18, 2016 8:31am Feb 18, 2016 8:31am
sisse,

I did learn a lesson and I had posted it prior to your post. Not sure if you saw it! But, thanks for the shout out. It was simply a WICK (price on the wick and not in the body of the candle at .137X).

chester123 and I had a question regarding how to play the MID TERM LEG regarding capital and risk management. I notice you say "clearing first target". Does this mean that you close out your trade from where ever you entered or part of the trade? And, then wait for a retracement(FADE) to enter another Short to target lets say .097X or .079X?

In the past I have entered trades to watch them go in my direction 200 pips to only end up trailing them and gaining only 50 pips. This is not good capital management in my opinion.

I entered my last position at .1140 so I am looking at closing half to all at my target of .0790 which is where I see a bigger retracement to enter another SHORT POSITION at .097x to .1080 handle.

How wrong am I ?
  • #139,226
  • Feb 18, 2016 9:08am Feb 18, 2016 9:08am
Quoting PipJet
{quote} i have really good personal contact to an russian oil engeneer and he is still working for a major oil company in russia and he told me that freezing output in winter is not possible at all. The pipelines would freeze down and they would be damaged really really fatal. Winter in deep russia is not like in London or California... Is the "freezing" statement just a big bluff for markets?
I think that 'freeze' in this sense doesn't mean stopping production altogether. It means freezing the output levels at the amount being produced now. Like when there is a freeze on wages, it doesn't mean you don't get paid at all. It means your salary won't increase while the freeze is in effect.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-ru...els-1455615900
  • #139,227
  • Feb 18, 2016 10:06am Feb 18, 2016 10:06am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I think that 'freeze' in this sense doesn't mean stopping production altogether. It means freezing the output levels at the amount being produced now. Like when there is a freeze on wages, it doesn't mean you don't get paid at all. It means your salary won't increase while the freeze is in effect. http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-ru...els-1455615900
Thanks for explenation :-)
  • #139,228
  • Feb 18, 2016 2:12pm Feb 18, 2016 2:12pm
Quoting IMARICH1
... a question regarding how to play the MID TERM LEG regarding capital and risk management. ... In the past I have entered trades to watch them go in my direction 200 pips to only end up trailing them and gaining only 50 pips. This is not good capital management in my opinion. I entered my last position at .1140 so I am looking at closing half to all at my target of .0790 which is where I see a bigger retracement to enter another SHORT POSITION at .097x to .1080 handle.
--->I have mentioned many times here check some back posts: "You need at least 2 to swing"

For a healthy trade management (despite the TF) try slicing your position size in 2 or 3 but not more than 5 parts. That way you will be able to manage your risk better as you will be able to deleverage your capital while price moves in your favour and at the same time reducing risk by locking partial profits.

You wont be able to take flawless trades every single time [most of time] (thats not how you make money in this business) but it will allow you to slice your swings in digestible and rational pieces. If you hit a jackpot from start to bottom great!!!, but clearing at least 2 partials in a trade should allow you to develop a very consistent trade management.

Quote
... . I entered my last position at .1140 so I am looking at closing half to all at my target of .0790 which is where I see a bigger retracement to enter another SHORT POSITION at .097x to .1080 handle.

Trade management beyond capital management is the area of trading where having sound understanding of technicals will play the biggest role in trading. Except from an unexpected 'game changer' from the fundamental side (very seldom happens), TA skills will prevail in how do you manage your position.

However, the same general tips apply as in timing, if you are aiming for a 10.000 ticks trade you cannot just flop or complain that you are missing something because of a 1000 retrace against your trade...neither let price retrace 9.000 ticks for the last 1.000 to complete ....etc etc. As always common sense applies first...

---> Going to your question. In chess a master player can think of +10 moves in advance with any kind of combination ahead but in trading trying to map the next 4 or 5 major swings ahead is a bit on the wishful thinking side....

---> Your future maps, although sound rational from the current chart perspective, they look a bit overstretched. You will be making a huge mistake if you think MARKETs (Euro or any) have a life of their own and their destiny is already predefined whatever TA tools you are using....

Its ok to have a general idea of how the zigzags of a mid term swing could pan out but don't plan like that your entries and exits as you will be dismissing the real reasons why an instrument move: Expectations of value given by supply and demand factors.

---> A simple extreme example to illustrate this will be FED cutting rates next month ...which will trigger a huge spike to 1.17xx ....and the next day ECB announcing more QE and further rate cuts sending a huge selloff to 1.07xx .... Meaning your swing will be still valid but your predefined map will be off by a mile or two....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,229
  • Feb 18, 2016 2:36pm Feb 18, 2016 2:36pm
sisse,

Thanks for info as this helps me in regards to trading or managing this swing to protect capital. Makes more sense to me. I can see how those two extremes could cause me to miss out on profits and stop me out yet the MID TERM SWING would still be intact.

Unfortunately, as stated before I can not close out of my trades until we get closer to the .0920 handle as I have some trades there that I bought in first and will be the first to be cleared due to trading brokerage rules so I am trying to manage to close my trades close to this area to minimize loss and recoup on the other positions I have.

My trading plan or MAP was to close these at my target of .079X or as you stated close some of these ( 2 to 5 parts). I am looking to close the .0920, .0940 and .1080 ones if we can reach this target successfully and a partial of the .1140 to limit my risk and capital.

However, it may not grind this low by the Month's end though I do think the MACRO view and current US data indicates the FA to be intact and more short level plays on the MID TERM LEG. I see FED raising rates even if not a full .25% as US data (employment, inflation, manufacturing) show normalization is needed. However, OIL and EQUITIES still have room to find a lower bottom or build the bottom floor. This is why I was looking to exit trades at .079X handle if we got there before OIL and Equities decided to find a bottom again. My .1140 and .1080 are not bad positions at the moment but not the cheaper seats due to my poor TIMING. And, my positions at the .09XX handle are not cheap seats at all right now.

Thanks for taking time to respond and help educate me and us a little more! I am hoping my poor trading or errors can be used to teach and educate others in their trading. You are invaluable to alot of us here!

All the Best!
  • #139,230
  • Feb 18, 2016 2:38pm Feb 18, 2016 2:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --->I have mentioned many times here check some back posts: "You need at least 2 to swing" For a healthy trade management (despite the TF) try slicing your position size in 2 or 3 but not more than 5 parts. That way you will be able to manage your risk better as you will be able to deleverage your capital while price moves in your favour and at the same time reducing risk by locking partial profits. You wont be able to take flawless trades every single time [most of time] (thats not how you make money in this business) but it will allow...
Couldnt agree more with every point given there, with exception the one about chess-trader. Trader looking on three most common views that affect exchange price is more likely to predict outcome in next steps X than chess player, that as long as all factors are included in, if those are correct it depends per person, but just saying they can be way more objective than on chess board, where actually objectivity CANNOT put you X+ steps infront as long as your oponent is playing well. Movements of chees player are valid to oponent at full transparency as long as one is following closely, while trading board is more deversified, at least in terms of being cloaked being many knowns, let that be economy, politics, elites, nano-scientifics....

But yes, for anyone putting chips to where their mouth is, for fundy+tech trader those rules should apply.
  • #139,231
  • Feb 19, 2016 3:57am Feb 19, 2016 3:57am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} U/J wants 113.0x/112.70's first and 119.40/80's later
Looking for another low in to 112.70's. If U/J wont turn before 112.5x, 112.0x is next place to chance longs...
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  • #139,232
  • Feb 19, 2016 5:56am Feb 19, 2016 5:56am
That was it for the European session. Manufacturing and inflation confirming the collapse in the continent but nothing really new.... QE is coming one way or the other.

Eyes on US inflation as one of the last key report in the month. Expecting inline or slightly negative to leave the FED doves intact until next month unlocking potentially the farewell rally in the EURO short term. Anything else is continuation in Equities and carry moves as collateral.

Not much to see until then ....

Quoting IMARICH1
s....I am looking to close the .0920, .0940 and .1080 ones if we can reach this target successfully and a partial of the .1140 to limit my risk and capital. ..
Watch-out you don't sit thought the chop for weeks and miss the momentum leg (the 'meat' of the move')....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,233
  • Edited 7:53am Feb 19, 2016 7:30am | Edited 7:53am
sisse,

My concern is when we get to the good support again at .079X and if we bounce/fade/retrace back to the .097X/.1080 handle, I lose capital and drawdown again. This is why I was going to close some of these positions and let my ones I loaded at .108X and .1140 run for the MEAT of the move.

Perhaps you are saying," You have been in this chop zone for weeks and now you are going to close when the meat of the move is almost to be served?"

Gator had .0788 on his radar for a LONG at one time and I have .0806 as my FLIP area where PA seems to find support as well. I was just concerned if this does infact bounce here that I could be looking at another unforseen move to the .12XX/.13XX handle again (OIL and EQUITIES finding a LOWER bottom) and have alot of drawdown for the positions at .0920 and ect.....

NEWS: Looks like we are inline with US DATA which to me confirms a hike with the majority of data showing normalization is in the making (economy is getting healthier). Manufacturing is an issue every where but it appears US is doing a little better.
  • #139,234
  • Feb 19, 2016 8:26am Feb 19, 2016 8:26am
Quoting sisse
Eyes on US inflation as one of the last key report in the month. Expecting inline or slightly negative to leave the FED doves intact until next month ....
CPI uptick pricks the Fed-fear sore, good news = bad news, oh no is March back on the table? And the oil glut remains, gets bigger, jawboning alone won't make it go away. Equity bulls shrink away and are probably scared of their own shadow....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,235
  • Feb 19, 2016 9:04am Feb 19, 2016 9:04am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} CPI uptick pricks the Fed-fear sore, good news = bad news, oh no is March back on the table? And the oil glut remains, gets bigger, jawboning alone won't make it go away. Equity bulls shrink away and are probably scared of their own shadow....
Nowhere to hide.... Doves and bastards scream for more free FED money and cry because hikes ...but US numbers held steady and this time on the last 'excuse' on the table inflation flopping against them ....

More importantly:

--> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from buy to sell.
--> Changing short term outlook in DOLLAR from soft sell to neutral.

On the rest of the board, dovish FED play is over until next month with Euro aligning for a tradable farewell short term rally (1.108x -> 1.127x -> max ext 1.1332x) on Equities realigning till next month. We pretty much have set the high of this month.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,236
  • Feb 19, 2016 10:22am Feb 19, 2016 10:22am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Looking for another low in to 112.70's. If U/J wont turn before 112.5x, 112.0x is next place to chance longs...
Shifting to bullish play from now on - towards 119's

U/J M5:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD_JPY_5 Mins_ss1.png Size: 56 KB
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  • #139,237
  • Feb 19, 2016 10:37am Feb 19, 2016 10:37am
A 14 month high in Core PPI printed Wednesday and solid Core CPI today. In the context of full employment it's going like clockwork for the FED.

Wednesday's manufacturing number was a 13 month high in the context of global growth fears and being a supposed chink in the armor on the data side (Previous number with revision was awful but good news for the here and now on an especially relevant data point.)

Some hawkish jitters in the US stock market on this inflation print. On S&P 1910
Quoting ClinicalEx
1910 on S&P
tested with the open as they decide how to digest this one. Bad on the surface for risk and with technicals (bearish intraday break.) and oil once again on the periphery today but imo, as things settle down, a bit of normalcy returning with these readings after such an uncertain start to the year.

It feels like the FED, for one, is in lockstep with developments.

On the other instruments: DAX (Ger30.) has taken back the yearly level & fighting to keep it with the weekly. Nikkei looking worse than the rest battling at the January low, and 1.1143 still very much in play but it's more than probably going to be resolved to the downside when it does.
  • #139,238
  • Feb 19, 2016 11:33am Feb 19, 2016 11:33am
Quoting ClinicalEx
A 14 month high in Core PPI printed Wednesday and solid Core CPI today. In the context of full employment it's going like clockwork for the FED.

...except global market cap has shrunk 25% in the last x months, I think I read $18 Trillion wiped out, but let's just say a $bazillion....if the Fed wants to wimp out they have an excuse, unless things turn around...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,239
  • Feb 19, 2016 11:48am Feb 19, 2016 11:48am
what happen to the market suddenly!!? Dax and S&P bounced up a little,gold was stoped in rally but euro and jpy are stronger what happen? is it a trap?
  • #139,240
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:36pm Feb 19, 2016 12:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ...except global market cap has shrunk 25% in the last x months, I think I read $18 Trillion wiped out, but let's just say a $bazillion....if the Fed wants to wimp out they have an excuse, unless things turn around...
They can justifiably wimp out for March but it's surely touch and go after that, data willing, provided the markets don't run the lows again.

Not expecting much from the S&P just as long as it remains out of the danger zone chopping around in the interim.

It does feel like there's unfinished business with the usual suspects. We're obviously counting on China papering over the cracks and a decent catalyst to put a floor on oil probably from supply side constraints.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that. It's been an incredibly rough year already, not personally, but markets have taken lot of strain and would hate for a prolonged, full blown crisis.
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