Brent (UK) Oil Daily, shame the BEOB wasn't higher, it's got a lot of hoops to jump through and difficult to manage, it's a nice size bar but has to be left alone for me. {image}
james16 Chart Thread
- #138,601
- Feb 17, 2016 1:51pm Feb 17, 2016 1:51pm
- #138,602
- Feb 17, 2016 2:52pm Feb 17, 2016 2:52pm
{quote} Brent hits the FTA and is rejected straight away, to someone new the GJ setup http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post8756688 and the Brent chart will look very similar and those Outside Bars are always very tempting. There's so much free stuff here to learn this so you can just see it at a glance of a chart, put the hours in and you'll be home free. {image}
I have a couple of questions please when you have the time:
1. Is the Brent FTA rejection you refer to the blue box area and if so are you simply saying that there was no space for the trade to go??
2. If i have Q1 right, then i definitely don't understand the similarity reference to G/J because it actually moved down well. Or do you mean G/J had a different result because it had space to move down. My question is why are they similar??
3. Do you trade the way your charts are presented, by that i mean you are zoomed right in and appear to be short term trading using WIPG, or do you zoom right out first/at all and look for other signals??
Thanks in advance
- #138,604
- Feb 17, 2016 5:08pm Feb 17, 2016 5:08pm
Hi traders, one price action trade learned from Mike and James ( thanks again ). Is simple box trade, with breakout,risk reward was 1:3. P.S. K.I.S.S ( Keep it stupid simple ) {image} {image}
Yeah i love boxes, definately my favourite and well done. Kicking myself for not taking this one as i was watching it. I have to commit to limit orders and trust them!
P.S.
K.I.S.S.
... i think you mean Keep It Simple Stupid
Hi all!
Yeah Capital, I was also asking that did anyone catch the breakout?
I didnt but it would be a perfect box play imo.
Pic GBPCAD Daily
E: I clearly have to start study and learn how to play these correctly, I think that this kind of setups give pretty good RRR and can be pretty profitable imo
E2: It would be fantastic if you and especially Mike would little bit comment about that do you change you % risk when taking like these "breakout" trades, for example:
If you take 3% risk when a good pinbar is at strong confluence area but imo when this kind of setup comes, do you tighten your % risk, hopefully you understand my text..
Yeah Capital, I was also asking that did anyone catch the breakout?
I didnt but it would be a perfect box play imo.
Pic GBPCAD Daily
E: I clearly have to start study and learn how to play these correctly, I think that this kind of setups give pretty good RRR and can be pretty profitable imo
E2: It would be fantastic if you and especially Mike would little bit comment about that do you change you % risk when taking like these "breakout" trades, for example:
If you take 3% risk when a good pinbar is at strong confluence area but imo when this kind of setup comes, do you tighten your % risk, hopefully you understand my text..
Im gonna beat this game.
Hi all! Yeah Capital, I was also asking that did anyone catch the breakout?
yea I understand question for sure, I never change my risk I every time take trades with 1% risk of my account and with 1:3 risk reward. No matter if we have break or pinbar or inside bar or ... I every time risk same % of my account.
- #138,608
- Feb 18, 2016 2:33am Feb 18, 2016 2:33am
{quote} Well that didn't work, loss of about 60 pips. I make no secret i dislike pinbars as i am obviously bad at picking them. I don't thnk i will ever trade them again. I must admit though it did achieve WIPG (see below) but i was expecting more. On to the next one... {image}
I was watching this pair and a bit worried by this box as I am clearly short
Here are a few charts explaining why I did not revert my position. nothing more than my own view, others may consider otherwise!
First, this pair is strongly down on the weekly. It may turn back up but my guess it would need a long consolidation + a few attempts before moving clearly up.
In addition I can't see any clear support level to... well, support price. Next level is 160-ish in my view: previous W1 low + top of old box.
Then, on H4: my view is a triangle consolidation. 162.50 is a good support area (dash line): RN + previous D1 close. But price is stuck in the large triangle + can't break the 164 level (dotted line), previous D1 low.
So in conclusion so far I'm just waiting for some level to break and price to move somewhere
Slow & steady
- #138,610
- Edited 4:12am Feb 18, 2016 3:59am | Edited 4:12am
Bill thanks for your questions, I'll do my best to put my thoughts down.
1. Is the Brent FTA rejection you refer to the blue box area and if so are you simply saying that there was no space for the trade to go??
Yes, the blue box, the two candle highs and the candle low, with all three of them there and the evolving rising trendline. Why they are more significant than the candle lows on the GJ trade is because of the space (see pic) the nearer the candles are to price, the more likely they are to affect where price stops/stalls. Yes there were lots of candle tops and bottoms on the GJ and any one can be considered a trouble area, but look how price moved up it's like a flow of candles almost like a wave, on Brent your heading to a point where price turned, a bottom, an end point. The GJ run down has ended at the large pinbar, look at the Daily where this lines up with and it will become crystal clear why price stopped there.
2. If i have Q1 right, then i definitely don't understand the similarity reference to G/J because it actually moved down well. Or do you mean G/J had a different result because it had space to move down. My question is why are they similar??
First of all, why are they similar?
1. They are quite large BEOB's compared to recent price
2. They both are at areas where there's been recent resistance (Brent's is a ppz)
3. They both cut through Big Round Numbers
4. The above all equal confluence
Both have the ingredients for a tradeable setup, that's why they're similar, to someone new who's just dying to get a trade on, it's time to hit the button, 8 years ago I probably would have to.
But there's nuances you have to get used to seeing on the charts:
GJ's bar is at a swing high, Brent is inside a Penant shape.
Look at the resistance before the BEOB's, look how the GJ's is more linear
The Brent BEOB is a lot larger but how many bars does it engulf compared to GJ??
Probably most importantly the GJ BEOB clears the top of all the previous bars before sinking down, it's a false breakout North if you like. There were probably stop losses there.
..and my answers to question 1.
3. Do you trade the way your charts are presented, by that i mean you are zoomed right in and appear to be short term trading using WIPG, or do you zoom right out first/at all and look for other signals?? Thanks in advance
Yes and yes, I'm a chartoholic, and I want them clear and concise. I always start with charts zoomed out to the max (important areas jump out of the chart this way).
Thanks for the questions Bill, my answers aren't right or wrong they're just the way I see them. I've probably missed a lot of other things to.
1. Is the Brent FTA rejection you refer to the blue box area and if so are you simply saying that there was no space for the trade to go??
Yes, the blue box, the two candle highs and the candle low, with all three of them there and the evolving rising trendline. Why they are more significant than the candle lows on the GJ trade is because of the space (see pic) the nearer the candles are to price, the more likely they are to affect where price stops/stalls. Yes there were lots of candle tops and bottoms on the GJ and any one can be considered a trouble area, but look how price moved up it's like a flow of candles almost like a wave, on Brent your heading to a point where price turned, a bottom, an end point. The GJ run down has ended at the large pinbar, look at the Daily where this lines up with and it will become crystal clear why price stopped there.
2. If i have Q1 right, then i definitely don't understand the similarity reference to G/J because it actually moved down well. Or do you mean G/J had a different result because it had space to move down. My question is why are they similar??
First of all, why are they similar?
1. They are quite large BEOB's compared to recent price
2. They both are at areas where there's been recent resistance (Brent's is a ppz)
3. They both cut through Big Round Numbers
4. The above all equal confluence
Both have the ingredients for a tradeable setup, that's why they're similar, to someone new who's just dying to get a trade on, it's time to hit the button, 8 years ago I probably would have to.
But there's nuances you have to get used to seeing on the charts:
GJ's bar is at a swing high, Brent is inside a Penant shape.
Look at the resistance before the BEOB's, look how the GJ's is more linear
The Brent BEOB is a lot larger but how many bars does it engulf compared to GJ??
Probably most importantly the GJ BEOB clears the top of all the previous bars before sinking down, it's a false breakout North if you like. There were probably stop losses there.
..and my answers to question 1.
3. Do you trade the way your charts are presented, by that i mean you are zoomed right in and appear to be short term trading using WIPG, or do you zoom right out first/at all and look for other signals?? Thanks in advance
Yes and yes, I'm a chartoholic, and I want them clear and concise. I always start with charts zoomed out to the max (important areas jump out of the chart this way).
Thanks for the questions Bill, my answers aren't right or wrong they're just the way I see them. I've probably missed a lot of other things to.
- #138,611
- Feb 18, 2016 8:39am Feb 18, 2016 8:39am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
Hi traders, one price action trade learned from Mike and James ( thanks again ). Is simple box trade, with breakout,risk reward was 1:3. P.S. K.I.S.S ( Keep it stupid simple ) {image} {image}
Mike
- #138,612
- Feb 18, 2016 8:45am Feb 18, 2016 8:45am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
Hi all! Yeah Capital, I was also asking that did anyone catch the breakout?
Hey Trader
Risk % is one of those things that people really struggle with. I've went through the gauntlet of understanding my risk as it applies to my method. I think that's HUGELY important. Depending on how you trade your risk will likely vary with that. I've also grown into my risk profile. Meaning I didn't always start out at say 3% risk. I actually traded at 1.5% for a very very long time. As I got better as a trader and also understand my edge better I was able to increase that.
Simply put my risk profile is as follows(and then i'll detail your question)
Full bar risk (ie entering near a break or having a full bar to work with - stop behind the bar) = 3% risk
Deep retrace entry on a PA bar = 1.5% risk
Touch trades/Wick plays = .25-1% risk depending on the situation
That's it for me. Any one of my trades falls into these categories. The only outlier are some gap plays I take which I still lump into the touch trades
So for your specific situation. If i'm trading say a box breakout and we get say a pre-emptive breakout bar as I teach. Say it's a beob closing outside the box. And the close is just outside the box with most of the body of the bar inside the box. That to me qualifies for a FULL risk situation because i have the breakout pattern to cut the trade off. So while my risk might be 3% my TRUE risk is much less. Maybe .5-1% giving it a little room. This is the dynamic risk reward concept that I teach.
Again I think risk:reward is hihgly misused and understood as most people come into trading thinking something like If I risk X I should get Y. Risk just as trading is fluid and dynamic to me.
Now why not just start with my stop lower if I know I will cut out? Simple I use it to get my position size in a consistent manner and then utilize the remaining area to reduce that risk.
So when you take say a deep retrace you lose a lot of the dynamic area to cut your risk so it's appropriate for me and my equity curve to in turn lower my risk initially. Using the same concepts as above.
yes I know this was an all WORDS post. But truthfully could be one of the most important I ever type for those that are struggling or interested in what I do
Hope it helps
Mike
- #138,613
- Feb 18, 2016 2:01pm Feb 18, 2016 2:01pm
@ Alphac thanks for your detailed response, very much appreciated. Answers all my Q's
@ patapouer, i should have been more patient with my analysis. I wasn't and i paid the price. I sincerely hope your GBP/JPY trade continues south, not just for your sake but i'm also short in that one too
@ patapouer, i should have been more patient with my analysis. I wasn't and i paid the price. I sincerely hope your GBP/JPY trade continues south, not just for your sake but i'm also short in that one too
- #138,615
- Feb 18, 2016 8:26pm Feb 18, 2016 8:26pm
The Universe is amazing. Ask for what you want with focus, and then be aware of how the Universe answers, and then take action.
Ok, so i have turned over a new leaf, drawn a line in the sand. No more day trading and scrambling for 20, 50, 100 pips. Can't do that long term, go crazy. I want less trades but much bigger pips. Am only looking at 8 pairs now and will likely reduce that to 6 soon, as i want to "get to know each pair intimately", learn how they ebb and flow and react. My focus is now alot sharper because less pairs to study, which is already benefiting my trading.
So i have only started this today folks, early days, but i am in 2 trades at the moment. I will be purchasing multiple parcels in each trade if the trades continue positively as they break through resistance/PPZ's/TL's and new support is proven. There will of course be ups and downs but as long as S&R's are respected, i stay in.
See how they go
Bill
P.S. Here's a link to a generic article about trading less for more that i found quite good.
P.P.S. You can't see the TP on G/J because it's down around 157.
See 'ya.
http://www.learntotradethemarket.com...forex-trading#
Ok, so i have turned over a new leaf, drawn a line in the sand. No more day trading and scrambling for 20, 50, 100 pips. Can't do that long term, go crazy. I want less trades but much bigger pips. Am only looking at 8 pairs now and will likely reduce that to 6 soon, as i want to "get to know each pair intimately", learn how they ebb and flow and react. My focus is now alot sharper because less pairs to study, which is already benefiting my trading.
So i have only started this today folks, early days, but i am in 2 trades at the moment. I will be purchasing multiple parcels in each trade if the trades continue positively as they break through resistance/PPZ's/TL's and new support is proven. There will of course be ups and downs but as long as S&R's are respected, i stay in.
See how they go
Bill
P.S. Here's a link to a generic article about trading less for more that i found quite good.
P.P.S. You can't see the TP on G/J because it's down around 157.
See 'ya.
http://www.learntotradethemarket.com...forex-trading#
- #138,616
- Feb 18, 2016 8:29pm Feb 18, 2016 8:29pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
Here is a trade I took today and posted in the PF
4hr dblhc or 8hr pinbar. After a false breakout. I call them fakey breakouts. Bought a break to make sure we cleared the swing and took profit near the TL and swing low. Could keep going but we might see a pullback before that not worth risking all that profit in this case
Best
Mike
4hr dblhc or 8hr pinbar. After a false breakout. I call them fakey breakouts. Bought a break to make sure we cleared the swing and took profit near the TL and swing low. Could keep going but we might see a pullback before that not worth risking all that profit in this case
Best
Mike
- #138,618
- Feb 19, 2016 4:10am Feb 19, 2016 4:10am
@ Alphac thanks for your detailed response, very much appreciated. Answers all my Q's
nice move down, isn't?
nice trading anyway, your box breakout stuff made me a bit busy lately
Slow & steady
- #138,619
- Feb 19, 2016 4:25am Feb 19, 2016 4:25am
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,265 Posts
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
