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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,201
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:10pm Feb 16, 2016 4:10pm
Quoting sisse
Us equities look eager to shake out some of the losses this year and make a quick run before March FED/CB combo. Eyes on 1875.x [check] in the S&P for the opening range to ignite and complete the leg to 1956.xx [in play]before March.
Very decent day but couldn't break up on equities yet. Markets look set for a soft Minutes continuation play, till then....

Quoting The Fool
{quote} ....would be nice to get some more jawbone support - without it, long OIL could be a tough climb
The thing is that we need to form a short, mid and long term bottom. Equities with a healthy pullback clearing risk with OPEC and Russia, etc in a first real soft attempt to find a short term floor in OIL will be (it's already) enough to make lots of heavy loaded shorts clear for profit taking and start forming a base for a mid term floor later in the year.

Expecting wide volatile until forming a short term floor, then we will slowly start narrowing the ranges for more measured moves.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,203
  • Feb 17, 2016 3:45am Feb 17, 2016 3:45am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} {quote} I rarely trade this cross to say the least, thanks a lot both to highlight this great configuration {image}
U/J wants 113.0x/112.70's first and 119.40/80's later
69
  • #139,204
  • Feb 17, 2016 6:28am Feb 17, 2016 6:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Very decent day but couldn't break up on equities yet. Markets look set for a soft Minutes continuation play, till then.... {quote} The thing is that we need to form a short, mid and long term bottom. Equities with a healthy pullback clearing risk with OPEC and Russia, etc in a first real soft attempt to find a short term floor in OIL will be (it's already) enough to make lots of heavy loaded shorts clear for profit taking and start forming a base for a mid term floor later in the year. Expecting wide volatile until forming a short term...
i have really good personal contact to an russian oil engeneer and he is still working for a major oil company in russia and he told me that freezing output in winter is not possible at all. The pipelines would freeze down and they would be damaged really really fatal. Winter in deep russia is not like in London or California...

Is the "freezing" statement just a big bluff for markets?
  • #139,205
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:24am Feb 17, 2016 7:24am
A plethora of US soft reports coming before the Minutes. All markets behaving in rather soft technical legs until then. Euro starting to crack the feeble floor. A soft push from Equities will run stops and clean the floor for further extensions but more importantly today in the menu: Euro setting the high of this month in play with the FED....

Quoting PipJet
{quote} i have really good personal contact to an russian oil engeneer and he is still working for a major oil company in russia and he told me that freezing output in winter is not possible at all. The pipelines would freeze down and they would be damaged really really fatal. Winter in deep russia is not like in London or California... Is the "freezing" statement just a big bluff for markets?
Can't comment on such a technical/industrial speculation but out of common sense alone it sounds out of the rational scope to even pay attention for such a tip...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,206
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:26am Feb 17, 2016 7:26am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Can't comment on such a technical/industrial speculation but out of common sense alone it sounds out of the rational scope to even pay attention for such a tip... sisse
Thanks for answering my question
  • #139,207
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:42am Feb 17, 2016 7:42am
Like usual in the last few months. Macro numbers (employment and inflation) in the US don't match the bastards cry for FED to stop normalisation (and even rate cuts and QE in some extreme cases).

Inflation ticking up and employment in solid uptrends coming from all fronts, the reaction on the Jan fears/FED hikes Dec is pretty much done for this month. Actively looking to close extreme dovish FED trading environment today and start the next chapter for the ECB/FED combo next month.

On the rest of the board, NY opening range will kill the day until the FED...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,208
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:43am Feb 17, 2016 7:43am
The comments from Saudi and Russia can be taken with a pinch of salt, as the markets have done. The agreement is fairly moot, all they have said is they will try to keep output at January's levels. Those two countries have had pretty stable output for a period now anyway. The issue is new product coming on stream, particularly with Iran back in he game again. As far as open positions go, the longs are now starting to add up, but a ways to go yet to turn a beast with this sort of momentum. A few more attempts at these levels to see if they hold up will be telling.
  • #139,209
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:54am Feb 17, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Greeny
The comments from Saudi and Russia can be taken with a pinch of salt, as the markets have done. The agreement is fairly moot, all they have said is they will try to keep output at January's levels. Those two countries have had pretty stable output for a period now anyway. The issue is new product coming on stream, particularly with Iran back in he game again. As far as open positions go, the longs are now starting to add up, but a ways to go yet to turn a beast with this sort of momentum. A few more attempts at these levels to see if they hold up...
Too little too late from the OIL producer point of view. We already crossed the line both in the Supply and Demand side.

I agree with your comments, we are set for profit taking on the rumour and sell any flop on deliver which will align perfectly with forming a hard bottom in the mid term.

In my view, smart money is clearing (heavy profit taking) on the 'noise'. The Saudis, Russia, Venezuela et al, IMO would make a huge mistake if they think a preemptive soft agreement will stop the rot.

If they fail to deliver a rather hard agreements any time soon, a final panic/exhaustion leg is more than wide open....for now clear/buy the rumour and sell the flop ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,210
  • Feb 17, 2016 8:59am Feb 17, 2016 8:59am
Quoting sisse
Like usual in the last few months. Macro numbers (employment and inflation) in the US don't match the bastards cry for FED to stop normalisation (and even rate cuts and QE in some extreme cases). Inflation ticking up and employment in solid uptrends coming from all fronts, the reaction on the Jan fears/FED hikes Dec is pretty much done for this month. Actively looking to close extreme dovish FED trading environment today and start the next chapter for the ECB/FED combo next month. On the rest of the board, NY opening range will kill the day until...
Hm extremely dovish FED today, lets see, altough the numbers do point on macro side for stoping of hikes, the numbers that FED is watching on employment are upticking. ECB in March has to deliver, but that might be already priced in, the better one is CHF where rate cut has probably not been printed in, if ECB moves, SNB will too, usually it moves ahead of it, so that would be the signal to watch .
  • #139,211
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:20am Feb 17, 2016 9:20am
Quoting sisse
A plethora of US soft reports coming before the Minutes. All markets behaving in rather soft technical legs until then. Euro starting to crack the feeble floor. A soft push from Equities will run stops and clean the floor for further extensions but more importantly today in the menu: Euro setting the high of this month in play with the FED.... {quote} Can't comment on such a technical/industrial speculation but out of common sense alone it sounds out of the rational scope to even pay attention for such a tip......
Sisse, kindly clarify the highlighted statement above. That is, do you expect the EURUSD to rise after the FOMC minutes are released?
Thanks.
  • #139,212
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:23am Feb 17, 2016 9:23am
Quoting Chibaya
{quote} Sisse, kindly clarify the highlighted statement above. That is, do you expect the EURUSD to rise after the FOMC minutes are released? Thanks.
it means if FOMC comes less dovish , the monthly high in EU should be locked for the rest of the month .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,213
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:27am Feb 17, 2016 9:27am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Hm extremely dovish FED today, lets see, altough the numbers do point on macro side for stoping of hikes, the numbers that FED is watching on employment are upticking. ECB in March has to deliver, but that might be already priced in, the better one is CHF where rate cut has probably not been printed in, if ECB moves, SNB will too, usually it moves ahead of it, so that would be the signal to watch .
he's looking for less dovish not extreme dovish today !

Quoting sisse
Like usual in the last few months. Macro numbers (employment and inflation) in the US don't match the bastards cry for FED to stop normalisation (and even rate cuts and QE in some extreme cases). Inflation ticking up and employment in solid uptrends coming from all fronts, the reaction on the Jan fears/FED hikes Dec is pretty much done for this month. Actively looking to close extreme dovish FED trading environment today and start the next chapter for the ECB/FED combo next month. On the rest of the board, NY opening range...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,214
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:39am Feb 17, 2016 9:39am
Quoting hoom
{quote} it means if FOMC comes less dovish , the monthly high in EU should be locked for the rest of the month .
Thanks for answering my question.
  • #139,215
  • Feb 17, 2016 9:39am Feb 17, 2016 9:39am
Agreed! This is what I took from sisse's post. The extreme DOVISH FED play has already been baked/priced in and less DOVISH but still DOVISH locks the HIGHS already set in EU.

Watching OIL hold the 29.XX handle and extend to holding 30.XX now, US Equities and DAX making gains and EU still holds the .1115 handle. Positioning?Hmmmm..... Would have thought with the markets reacting this way might push or nudge EU around .1080 prior to FED Minutes especially with another LL being set at around .110X
  • #139,216
  • Feb 17, 2016 10:11am Feb 17, 2016 10:11am
Quoting hoom
{quote} he's looking for less dovish not extreme dovish today ! {quote}
Ah i see, that clears it up then.
  • #139,217
  • Feb 17, 2016 10:26am Feb 17, 2016 10:26am
I think it will be a handsome dovish ... The way pa is behaving is on both side I.e., a chop zone or a perfect direct play ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,218
  • Feb 17, 2016 12:43pm Feb 17, 2016 12:43pm
Here we go for the Minutes, not expecting much from the report. Inline confirming dovish sentiment will just leave us in soft technical legs to complete the moves in Equities and more importantly in the FX board to start forming a decent base in Dollar before March.

Quoting janpec1000
... the better one is CHF where rate cut has probably not been printed in, if ECB moves, SNB will too, usually it moves ahead of it, so that would be the signal to watch .
I wouldn't get close to CHF by a 100 mile range ....CHF (& SNB) is the worst trading currency for the foreseeable future. One of the most liberal market democracies in the world has a CB and a monetary policy better match for a third world country .... dangerous currency with a nearly corrupt private CB .... not in my workspace this year but good luck...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,219
  • Feb 17, 2016 1:05pm Feb 17, 2016 1:05pm
Nothing new, some outlooks that don't really much the latest numbers (manufacturing and inflation), risk via China, not much to see on the macro view with nothing we didn't know before...

On currencies, watch-out for soft hands getting trapped but all on the very soft side...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,220
  • Feb 17, 2016 1:17pm Feb 17, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting sisse
On currencies, watch-out for soft hands getting trapped but all on the very soft side... sisse
Hi Sisse, thank you for update of your view. Could you please explain what is the soft side? I'm ashamed to admit I don't understand what is meant by that.
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