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Transient Zones - Basics

  • #821
  • Feb 8, 2016 8:53am Feb 8, 2016 8:53am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hey, I think this makes sense for the mid-bar tz-s. I can try to do it this week (no promises as I am known for being slow)... k

No sweat. No rush..

Thanks
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  • #822
  • Feb 8, 2016 9:11am Feb 8, 2016 9:11am
Quoting forrestang
{quote} I think so. This was some initial work I was doing after getting into this material. It seems that the initial premise was that 97% of price is recurrent. As this was stated over and over, so I think I wanted to at least prove this for myself in some way so that I could then work from there. For if I found that price was only 50% recurrent, then I would either need to check how I was measuring something being recurrent(wrong measurement), or the initial premise wasn't worth exploring any further. So initially it was just going through the...
The initial premise 97% was talking about price in the market overall that's why he commented about not getting mixed up with recurrent vs h-recurrent, transient vs h-transient. Of course yes we must get our probability from H and historic data. If you just take a snapshot like the year 2015 then you may or may not see the 97% if you get my meaning.

Look at 1 min and run left H=6 and right = 1440
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  • #823
  • Feb 8, 2016 9:21am Feb 8, 2016 9:21am
Attached Image
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  • #824
  • Edited 5:29pm Feb 8, 2016 9:40am | Edited 5:29pm
1 minute

h-1
h-1440 (24hrs)
Attached Image
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  • #825
  • Edited 12:27pm Feb 9, 2016 12:04pm | Edited 12:27pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Please do. Let us know
I made check but i don't see improvement. I think in my observation original shadow PTZ are enough if you know play retests.
I let for later check fibo between 2 zones. I made simple test in chart and knowing ( H1 TF and 16 period ) you get a retrace about 30 pips in PTZ, if you put fibo you see this is around 23/38 level. The explanation is long but I have some ideas as play with this behavior. I'm thinking how code it.
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #826
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:25pm Feb 9, 2016 12:25pm
Quoting BillYon
{image}
Hello, whats the point of having h left different than h right ?
  • #827
  • Feb 9, 2016 1:22pm Feb 9, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting BillYon
1 minute h-1 h-1440 (24hrs) {image}
Why is frequency of possible problem bars > 100%?

Just curious about that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #828
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:05pm Feb 9, 2016 3:05pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Why is frequency of possible problem bars > 100%? Just curious about that.

Because H= 1

Each new bar is a possible problem bar
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  • #829
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:08pm Feb 9, 2016 3:08pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} Hello, whats the point of having h left different than h right ?
Measuring probability of recurrence in different period of time.
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  • #830
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:59pm Feb 9, 2016 3:59pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Why is frequency of possible problem bars > 100%? Just curious about that.
I guess many bars have both potential end-of-bar and mid-bar transient zones when h=1. In the RS indicator that would be counted as two potential problems per bar.
k
  • #831
  • Feb 9, 2016 5:46pm Feb 9, 2016 5:46pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} Hello, whats the point of having h left different than h right ?
So basicalli this show a very high probability of clearing a non recurrent price with 24hours. Even with h=1 as your ptz (left h)
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  • #832
  • Feb 10, 2016 2:04am Feb 10, 2016 2:04am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} I guess many bars have both potential end-of-bar and mid-bar transient zones when h=1. In the RS indicator that would be counted as two potential problems per bar. k
One of your best indies, k!

Quoting BillYon
{quote} Because H= 1 Each new bar is a possible problem bar

Thanks fellas, that is what I suspected.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #833
  • Feb 10, 2016 3:49am Feb 10, 2016 3:49am
Great effort, actually this is definitely a topic worth the read!
just do it
  • #834
  • Feb 16, 2016 11:46am Feb 16, 2016 11:46am
If price is mostly recurrent. Some percentage....

I've tried this in a few different ways, but what if over some period of measurement, you have a running tally of how much of price is recurrent, within some period?

The idea would be to place trades for every POTENTIALLY transient price that occurs, depending on the percentage returning to its nominal value. I.e., while placing your SEVERAL trades as a potentially transient price is occurring, some of the trades would lose, but on balance as the transient area fills your NET would be positive.

I haven't even begun to really work out what i need to test and create scripts for yet with regards to this idea, but has anyone had a similar idea of how to tackle such an idea?

I can test ideas pretty quickly, just a matter of coming up with things to test.
  • #835
  • Feb 16, 2016 7:11pm Feb 16, 2016 7:11pm
Quoting forrestang
If price is mostly recurrent. Some percentage.... I've tried this in a few different ways, but what if over some period of measurement, you have a running tally of how much of price is recurrent, within some period? The idea would be to place trades for every POTENTIALLY transient price that occurs, depending on the percentage returning to its nominal value. I.e., while placing your SEVERAL trades as a potentially transient price is occurring, some of the trades would lose, but on balance as the transient area fills your NET would be positive. I...
Few questions:

Are you looking a prices or zones for you potential transient targets?

Just to be clear, can you show a picture of your idea?

Does your running tally % change for the better or worse if you add in trend filters?

What is your idea for stop loss for the losers?

Are you suggestion one trade per TZ?

What triggers your entry?
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  • #836
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:48pm Feb 16, 2016 8:48pm
Excellent questions. Some of which will give me some things to think about.

Honestly I'm not sure exactly how it would look? I'm thinking more conceptually with no concrete solutions as of yet, and wondering if that idea is even worth exploring, and if so beginning to answer some questions on what to test.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} Are you looking a prices or zones for you potential transient targets? J
I'm not sure what you mean by price vs. zones? I have collected stats for both price and bars at some point. I've also tried a bunch of different ways of measuring transient %. BUt I'm not sure if any of it gets to what I need to be seeing. Targets could either be trading towards or away from a transient zone I would imagine, all depending on how you configure your series of trades. My initial thoughts are leaning towards trading back to a transient zone. But this all depends on if there is any observable tendency?

Quoting BillYon
{quote}ust to be clear, can you show a picture of your idea? Does your running tally % change for the better or worse if you add in trend filters?
On this, I'm still not sure what it would look like exaclty? But I would imagine most of us have been approaching the problem of trading a TZ with a simple entry, stop and target. I was wondering if the solution might be to figure a way to split your size up into different trades as the running percentage of TZ is forming? You'd be trading with an unrealized profit or loss until either targets are hit or your H expires.

The running tally, that is something I'm still thinking about. As you can probably measure it a bunch of different ways as its forming. Trend filters, I think that would come after a basic idea of what to measure, how to measure, and a general idea of how you'd structure your trades.

Quoting BillYon
{quote} Are you suggestion one trade per TZ? What triggers your entry?
I could be wrong, but I'm more thinking it would be a series of trades per developing TZ... or thought of another way, multiple trades to capture what is offered by each TZ that will eventually be in place.

Entries, not sure? Still thinking about that one as well, but I think that is part of figuring out a structure to place trades... could be blind entries at certain deviations from current TZs, or something all else together.
  • #837
  • Feb 16, 2016 10:40pm Feb 16, 2016 10:40pm
Quoting Innate
{quote} I have a different view on k. I am not the original author so I cannot proclaim that I am correct in my assertion. I have responded to Bill on another forum with my thoughts on what k really is. But I have never spoken on how one could use it. To recap, k is simply the measure of the zone's height. Points, pips whatever. What is it measuring? It is measuring the delta of the retrace (in the given h period). How do we use this? Many ways. (I would love to hear of more from other traders??) One way is this: if one were targeting a TZ assuming...

Great. Been a while so I went back to read again. I was thrown off from the phrase "measuring the delta". So yes I understand K pretty much the way you explained only that we had not had indicators to reflect price recurrence based on price itself.

How has this been going for u?

So what triggers your entry?

What do you mean by false targets?

Why do you target beyond the zone vs ahead of it?

Do you use sentiment?

Thanks
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  • #838
  • Feb 17, 2016 10:38pm Feb 17, 2016 10:38pm
Looking at FX Jays charts sparked some ideas. Thoughts?

Searching for that high probability recurrent zone as an anchor target. A magnet
Riding MA sentiment towards magnet and collecting the lesser probability problem zones along the way?

1day zone anchor target also collecting any 1 day zones that appear along the way.
4hr problem nuggets

Stop loss above Daily MA smoothed 15

All trades target the magnet

h=10 for problem zones to clear
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  • #839
  • Feb 18, 2016 9:48pm Feb 18, 2016 9:48pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #840
  • Mar 3, 2016 11:17am Mar 3, 2016 11:17am
If im not mistaken mid tz with h=1 are similar to hiddengaps concept, right ?
is it possible to find them on renko ?
Im trying to see how often opposite mtz h=1 happen at the same zone.
I hope it makes sense.
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