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Forex Made Millionaire Thread for Blog Swing Trades

  • #761
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:00pm Feb 16, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Good time to mention USD/CAD, GL. As you can see from my screenshot above, I'm lightly short. I outlined the trade on Sunday in my weekly update saying that I'd like to get short again on a re-test of the broken wedge support tested as resistance: {image} In my mind, we got close enough this morning and I like seeing that it's stalling here on another attempt at the highs we saw this morning. The 4-hour chart is behaving well with all MA's purely aligned: {image} That being said, I'm not as confident as you are in 1,000+ pips to the downside....
When i say 1k what i mean is 1k net over 4-6 addon positions. I'm not that convicted about the Cad lol. I'm only looking for price to get to around the 1.3640 area. I didn't state that correctly in the original post.
  • #762
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:05pm Feb 16, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting Good Lookin
{quote} When i say 1k what i mean is 1k net over 4-6 addon positions. I'm not that convicted about the Cad lol. I'm only looking for price to get to around the 1.3640 area. I didn't state that correctly in the original post.

Ahh gotcha! I don't really like talking aggregate pips that way. It just gets confusing (as it did here). So just to clarify, whenever I talk about moves in terms of pips it's always aggregate... over average of the total, or whatever. You know what I mean (I hope).
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  • #763
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:35pm Feb 16, 2016 2:35pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Stop is at 1.4010 which is a bit larger than I'd like but that's also why my starting position is smaller. I'll ratchet it down quickly should we get below 1.3800 and then start building a larger position too.
Thanks for that I am going to modify my stop up on that basis. I was on 1.3950. I keep getting stopped out all day today and it's doing my head in. I am learning my trade here and looking back at my orders I see I had some good prices on G/Y but too tight with the stops. Probably would help if I had more capital....but most importantly I have to stay in the game.

I will share some analysis...but not yet. I am just working out the basics and don't want to pollute the thread with something unhelpful.

Thanks to Geppy and all others who have a great connection and contribution on this thread.
  • #764
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:35pm Feb 16, 2016 2:35pm
PA on GBP/JPY is looking pretty weak here guys. I would not be surprised if we have another leg down before a decent retrace. It probably won't come in the next few hours though. Hopefully most of you know this but trading is basically closed from 2-3pm PST because the futures market is closed at that time. Liquidity is zilch, so it's alway a crapshoot if you're trying to make trades during that time.

Anyway, looking weak and I dig it.
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  • #765
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:45pm Feb 16, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting JampelD
{quote} Thanks for that I am going to modify my stop up on that basis. I was on 1.3950. I keep getting stopped out all day today and it's doing my head in. I am learning my trade here and looking back at my orders I see I had some good prices on G/Y but too tight with the stops. Probably would help if I had more capital....but most importantly I have to stay in the game. I will share some analysis...but not yet. I am just working out the basics and don't want to pollute the thread with something unhelpful. Thanks to Geppy and all others who have...

JampelD, sounds like you've got the right attitude and that's a big piece. But don't believe people (or yourself) when they tell you that you need more capital to do well. You can always modify your position size... like, make it smaller. It's a great tool at the retail trader's disposal. If your broker won't let you trade smaller lots, find one that will. But don't let capital be an excuse for why you aren't trading well.
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  • #766
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:59pm Feb 16, 2016 2:59pm
Hi Geppy,

I am not sure, but Are we allowed to discuss Eur/JPY Here? if not please delete

I noticed PA on E/J is stuck around 126.80 support, can you please comment, Thanks
  • #767
  • Feb 16, 2016 3:04pm Feb 16, 2016 3:04pm
Hi guys,

I'm trying to get into a short GBP/JPY trade as I missed out earlier. I am fairly new at this and have trouble getting the entry points right. I can see there is a downtrend and as far as I can see there should be a retrace to the 23.6% fib level? what indicators can i look at to decide if the price will reach this level and if it does, what level should i put a stop at? Here are my charts - may be completely wrong, but got to start somewhere!

4h Chart
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1h chart
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  • #768
  • Feb 16, 2016 3:05pm Feb 16, 2016 3:05pm
Quoting charron
Hi Geppy, I am not sure, but Are we allowed to discuss Eur/JPY Here? if not please delete I noticed PA on E/J is stuck around 126.80 support, can you please comment, Thanks
We tend to focus on EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and GBP/JPY.

That's five pairs, and I think it's plenty. One of the (many) reasons traders fail is because they run from one pair to the next in search of trade opportunities. To me, that's bad for a number of reasons:

1) It teaches you that "there's always a trade to be had" when reality sometimes there isn't and it's best to sit tight
2) It does not teach discipline which is something lacking in nearly all traders (often myself included)
3) It never allows you to get a feel for the ebbs and flows of the pairs you focus on (because you have no focus). Every pair has it's own rhythm and differences in responding to technical levels, etc. How can you possibly get to know them intimately if you're trading them all?

Those are the reasons I tend to keep my pairs limited to the above five and generally won't be trading any more than 3 at a time (due to over exposure reasons). That's the way I've set up this thread and I hope it stays that way.

EDIT: Just added this to the opening page/first post to help clarify.
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  • #769
  • Feb 16, 2016 3:09pm Feb 16, 2016 3:09pm
Quoting RadboneFX
Hi guys, I'm trying to get into a short GBP/JPY trade as I missed out earlier. I am fairly new at this and have trouble getting the entry points right. I can see there is a downtrend and as far as I can see there should be a retrace to the 23.6% fib level? what indicators can i look at to decide if the price will reach this level and if it does, what level should i put a stop at? Here are my charts - may be completely wrong, but got to start somewhere! 4h Chart {image} 1h chart {image}
Hey Radbone, welcome!

Glad to see you here and getting into FX. Seems you have the right idea... wanting to get short in a downtrend. And it seems you're looking at fibs as a way of doing so.

But I think you need to make your own decisions in terms of exactly where you want to enter and where you're going to place your stop. That's something only you can answer because you are the one taking the risk and know your own tolerance.

If you aren't sure, take a tiny position with a wider than normal stop. Start understanding your own risk tolerance and start learning, that's the only way to do it.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #770
  • Feb 16, 2016 3:18pm Feb 16, 2016 3:18pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Hey Radbone, welcome! Glad to see you here and getting into FX. Seems you have the right idea... wanting to get short in a downtrend. And it seems you're looking at fibs as a way of doing so. But I think you need to make your own decisions in terms of exactly where you want to enter and where you're going to place your stop. That's something only you can answer because you are the one taking the risk and know your own tolerance. If you aren't sure, take a tiny position with a wider than normal stop. Start understanding your own risk tolerance...
OK, I understand that. I suppose I'm asking if there are any other techniques for swing trading that I should be using to back up my decision/thoughts? Do my charts look ok and are there any glaring mistakes?
  • #771
  • Feb 16, 2016 3:27pm Feb 16, 2016 3:27pm
Quoting JampelD
{quote} Thanks for that I am going to modify my stop up on that basis. I was on 1.3950. I keep getting stopped out all day today and it's doing my head in. I am learning my trade here and looking back at my orders I see I had some good prices on G/Y but too tight with the stops. Probably would help if I had more capital....but most importantly I have to stay in the game. I will share some analysis...but not yet. I am just working out the basics and don't want to pollute the thread with something unhelpful. Thanks to Geppy and all others who have...
You have to place your stop behind something meaningful. Outside of a channel or across a support/resistance. Leave extra pips of room so your spread or a little extra volatility doesn't knock it out.

Measure the pips from your desired entry to this meaningful stop place. If it's too many pips for you to accept losing, it's a bad entry so don't make the trade. Often the best thing to do is to be patient for a very good entry. Your risk will be much lower.

Capital is relative as Geppy mentioned. You just trade smaller lots. I started with a $100 deposit micro account which trades a minimum of 0.01 lots.
  • #772
  • Feb 16, 2016 3:47pm Feb 16, 2016 3:47pm
GPY/JPY May retrace to 163.65 area, as this is strong support turned resistance zone for this pair. Once price has retested this zone it should continue down to around 155.5 level. IMHO .Also Weekly 200 MA adds further resistance at current price
I would post my chart but its very messy with my sell orders, SL, TP, Fibs and s&r lines

OK here it is
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  • #773
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:00pm Feb 16, 2016 4:00pm
Threw another mini lot on GBP/JPY at 163.20 -- might be early but couldn't resist.
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  • #774
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:08pm Feb 16, 2016 4:08pm
I've been reading another trader's blog here on Forex Factory, Greg Wilson, who years ago did a trade journal on the GBP/JPY pair and primarily focused his trading on pivot points. Looking at the daily pivot points on actionforex I see 163.54 as S2, so utilizing his strategy I would say that price is heading back towards S2. Does any one else use standard daily pivot points to enter trades or set pull back levels? Just curious.
  • #775
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:30pm Feb 16, 2016 4:30pm
Quoting Geppy
Threw another mini lot on GBP/JPY at 163.20 -- might be early but couldn't resist.
I added to mine too at 162.65
  • #776
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:33pm Feb 16, 2016 4:33pm
Yippee....our Forum has come alive!.

Been MIA for just a couple of hours and I am delighted to see the dialogue

My trades are bitter-sweet; more sweet than Bitter.

GBPUSD

I am nice. Got a bit trigger-happy and went it quite early Geppy.....never waited for the break!. Doesn't always work in my favour but this time......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBPJPY

Got some at 164.681 but added at the wrong place - smack in the middle of Support - darned!. Worked with the break of the Ichimoku Support (Kijun Sen), followed by a full candle body with open and close. Well.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USDJPY

Holding on to those Shorts.....

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Following your every move Geppy. Win, loose or draw!

Cheers.
  • #777
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:43pm Feb 16, 2016 4:43pm
Quoting fundmyvaca
I've been reading another trader's blog here on Forex Factory, Greg Wilson, who years ago did a trade journal on the GBP/JPY pair and primarily focused his trading on pivot points. Looking at the daily pivot points on actionforex I see 163.54 as S2, so utilizing his strategy I would say that price is heading back towards S2. Does any one else use standard daily pivot points to enter trades or set pull back levels? Just curious.
I've never been a big believer/fan of pivot points. So sorry, I'm of no help here.
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  • #778
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:47pm Feb 16, 2016 4:47pm
Quoting krismitt
Yippee....our Forum has come alive!. Been MIA for just a couple of hours and I am delighted to see the dialogue My trades are bitter-sweet; more sweet than Bitter. GBPUSD I am nice. Got a bit trigger-happy and went it quite early Geppy.....never waited for the break!. Doesn't always work in my favour but this time...... {image} GBPJPY Got some at 164.681 but added at the wrong place - smack in the middle of Support - darned!. Worked with the break of the Ichimoku Support (Kijun Sen), followed by a full candle body with open and close. Well........
Hahaha, good to see you krismitt!

Looking good, my man! I'd throw a stop on that GBP/USD trade and let it ride. GBP/JPY looks good... I think your newly added shorts will work out alright. I dig the USD/JPY short and think it's just a matter of time before it rolls over. A big tell today IMO was USD/JPY unable to follow the US equity rally higher.

One thing to be careful of... you're trading USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and GBP/JPY. If you've got positions in the first two, there's really no reason to be in GBP/JPY. You're essentially taking the exact same trade. So what you've done is double your risk exposure.
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  • #779
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:54pm Feb 16, 2016 4:54pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote}One thing to be careful of... you're trading USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and GBP/JPY. If you've got positions in the first two, there's really no reason to be in GBP/JPY. You're essentially taking the exact same trade. So what you've done is double your risk exposure.
Or if you've got positions in the latter you don't need the first two, right?
Take out the middleman and just trade GBPJPY.

Really though, I've struggled to read nearly every USD pair I've tried to trade and get burned more often than not.
GJ has actually provided me with such painless trades in comparison, it's great.

But I've only been trading for 5 months so I have plenty more to learn.
  • #780
  • Feb 16, 2016 5:01pm Feb 16, 2016 5:01pm
Quoting Rurozan
{quote} Or if you've got positions in the latter you don't need the first two, right? Take out the middleman and just trade GBPJPY. Really though, I've struggled to read nearly every USD pair I've tried to trade and get burned more often than not. GJ has actually provided me with such painless trades in comparison, it's great. But I've only been trading for 5 months so I have plenty more to learn.
Yes, that's the other option.

Interesting that you find GBP/JPY preferable as a relatively new trader. The pair is quite wild and many traders stay away from it because, as you've seen, it can swing 100-200 pips very fast.

So a lot of people find it easier to trade the USD-based pairs.
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