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  • #12,061
  • Feb 16, 2016 12:09pm Feb 16, 2016 12:09pm
Quoting The Fool
I need UVXY to open with a nice $5-10 gap down, then crash another $10-15 for the short week. Need a steady rally for the SnP to do it, but it can - witness week of 9/14/15, when it ranged down $64 to $35.....
So far, so good - I need around UVXY $35 just to make a small gain on Feb UVXY put flys. Ideally we get some more jawbone action out of the OPEC & company talking heads.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,062
  • Feb 16, 2016 12:49pm Feb 16, 2016 12:49pm
so, yeah, I need a big fat green SPY weekly candle - need to blow off that iv in there to help a big pile of IC'd boondoggles - well, some are better than others - I have Mar $175/$170 puts that could come off soon, more problematic is Mar $185/$182 puts, Mar $198/$201 calls, several more on the put side look OK, for now

...also need AAPL to push up towards $100 to close the week - I have Feb/Feb4 $101/$102 calls, could make out well if AAPL will sit around $98-99 by Friday.....

I spent 10c on a narrow Feb SPY calls fly - $193.5/195/196.5 - perhaps the low end of that is within reach?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,063
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:38pm Feb 16, 2016 9:38pm
/ES looking soft, /CL too, maybe FOMC minutes will reinforce the dovish Fed tone and stoke the bull rally?

I need SPY $195 by Friday...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,064
  • Feb 16, 2016 11:01pm Feb 16, 2016 11:01pm
Quoting The Fool
/ES looking soft, /CL too, maybe FOMC minutes will reinforce the dovish Fed tone and stoke the bull rally? I need SPY $195 by Friday... {image}
Good luck, Id love to get a nice rally to load back short again but based off how things have been playing out lately we'll probably just roll over and die here before I can get anything substantial put on. Closed out on my Feb positions for a little bit over a wash, which I guess is good for my first month trading options especially in these conditions. Still holding long USO from $9.22 have to resell some march calls on my position to further lower cost basis come tomorrow, should be able to get it down around $9. Went a little short Nasdaq after closing out a big winner on a butterfly spread in the QQQs that closed within $1 of my max profit today. If it wasn't for my apple bull vertical call spread that absolute BLEW UP on me and I took max loss on I would have made out very well. That one trade alone ate up close to 3/4ths of my other winners combined also took hit on short TLT call spread that i got assigned on when bonds rallied hard. If oil stayed around $30-31 would have had a decent return despite everything but it is what it is. Still learning.
  • #12,065
  • Feb 17, 2016 12:05am Feb 17, 2016 12:05am
Quoting thegmann
Good luck, Id love to get a nice rally to load back short again but based off how things have been playing out lately we'll probably just roll over and die here .....
yieldseeking hordes want to rally equities, they just need to smell a fair wind for more than a day or two. So many foul ones blowing, though, I'd bet we can see many chances to make money on bearish trades in coming months, just need a little rally to get set up....well we have come up 100 pts in the spoos in just a few days, so I can't complain....I just need a little more, but....I got a bad feeling....

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,066
  • Feb 17, 2016 10:30am Feb 17, 2016 10:30am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yieldseeking hordes want to rally equities, they just need to smell a fair wind for more than a day or two. So many foul ones blowing, though, I'd bet we can see many chances to make money on bearish trades in coming months, just need a little rally to get set up....well we have come up 100 pts in the spoos in just a few days, so I can't complain....I just need a little more, but....I got a bad feeling.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bCwyzT0Z6E
Yeah.. Rally started 4 days ago, when info about an "deal - cutting production of oil" was announced. /ES run from 1805 to 1920. The rally seems impresive, but is it sustainable? It was made on low volume, holiday... lots of short covering. Who knows? I placed various call spreads on my platform that I like to sell... Like /ES March 1970/2000.

If we hit 1950, for example -> what would be the next move? Above 2000 OR bellow 1900?

FOMC Meeting Minutes in 2.5 hours.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,067
  • Feb 17, 2016 1:28pm Feb 17, 2016 1:28pm
Quoting StrayDog
... FOMC Meeting Minutes in 2.5 hours.
Not much said there.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #12,068
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:44pm Feb 17, 2016 7:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I dipped my foot a little bit too early on USO (on the break of the 2009 low at ~32.70 WTI). I considered taking on additional shares here, but decided to go with a cheaper alternative: {image} Work it like a covered call, leaving the long option untouched as you roll the shortie for additional credit. Take off the entire thing when the credits received for the shortie rolling exceed the debit paid by some measure or run the thing until near expiration of the long ... . Gives me some flexibility for USO price to flop all over the place from here...
Meant to put this on on Tuesday; spaced it out cleaning up the remainder of my Feb index ETF setups, all of which I took off in some form of profit.

Filled today for 1.72 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,069
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:51pm Feb 17, 2016 7:51pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah.. Rally started 4 days ago, when info about an "deal - cutting production of oil" was announced. /ES run from 1805 to 1920. The rally seems impresive, but is it sustainable? It was made on low volume, holiday... lots of short covering. Who knows? I placed various call spreads on my platform that I like to sell... Like /ES March 1970/2000. If we hit 1950, for example -> what would be the next move? Above 2000 OR bellow 1900? FOMC Meeting Minutes in 2.5 hours.
I generally eye these holiday low volume movements skeptically, but the market seems to be buying into it. Who am I to argue? I slapped on some short call vertical action in SPY and QQQ in March to balance out the short put verticals I put on on the dip.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,070
  • Feb 17, 2016 8:04pm Feb 17, 2016 8:04pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I generally eye these holiday low volume movements skeptically, but the market seems to be buying into it. Who am I to argue? I slapped on some short call vertical action in SPY and QQQ in March to balance out the short put verticals I put on on the dip.
Speaking of legging in ... . There are couple of different ways to put on iron condors. The most obvious one is to slap it on all at once. Another way is to leg into the short put side on weakness and the short call side on strength, which requires patience and a bit of sweat if your delta is imbalanced and the market's moving toward your "unprotected side," which you have yet to match up with an oppositional side because you're legging in.

I've been putzing with "option three," which is to layer on iron condors in the same expiration over time as price moves about, which gives you flexibility as to which spreads you take off when because you've got layers of short call spreads and layers of short put spreads to take advantage of.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,071
  • Feb 17, 2016 8:35pm Feb 17, 2016 8:35pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Good luck, Id love to get a nice rally to load back short again but based off how things have been playing out lately we'll probably just roll over and die here before I can get anything substantial put on. Closed out on my Feb positions for a little bit over a wash, which I guess is good for my first month trading options especially in these conditions. Still holding long USO from $9.22 have to resell some march calls on my position to further lower cost basis come tomorrow, should be able to get it down around $9. Went a little short Nasdaq...
It's all part of the learning process ... .

Be patient on that USO covered call ... . A lot of the time if I can't sell a call against the stock at or above my cost basis, I just wait until price bounces. Although I've done it on occasion, you don't want to get into the habit of selling calls below your cost basis since rolling the call up for additional credit can be kind of a slog, particularly if the short call has been tested (you can do it, but you have to roll it out farther in time to improve the strike for a credit, sometimes wayyy further in time, which makes further rolling for a credit and strike improvement even more difficult going forward).

With debit spreads, look at the setup from the get-go from a max loss scenario standpoint; I generally put those on, and if they work out, great, but I'm always prepared to take something at or near max loss for those. If you look at the potential max loss and it's too big for your tastes, tweak the setup so that it's tolerable. Otherwise, don't do debit spreads. There isn't much you can do with them if they go awry (although I've done some funky things to salvage those, like stripping off the profitable leg and/or rolling one leg to convert it to a credit spread, and then working it off from there; whole lot of goofing around).

You also need to roll stuff out for duration. That's the only way you can salvage a lot of trades where the setup is tested. It's a drag, but you have to be able to do that to mitigate loss and/or salvage broken setups ... . Otherwise, the 3 bad trades you had will eat up the profits you raked in on the 7 good trades. There are a bunch of TastyTrade videos on rolling; they don't like to try to save broken iron condors or tested credit spreads (they just plain ass abandon broken defined risk setups and move on), but I always make an attempt ... or several ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,072
  • Feb 17, 2016 10:16pm Feb 17, 2016 10:16pm
Expiring for February soon. Done everything yesterday and rollover to March contract. Not a good month for January, expected 5.5% growth with only 3.2% growth. Last two weeks sell-off really was a terrible market.
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  • #12,073
  • Feb 18, 2016 4:28am Feb 18, 2016 4:28am
Quoting Cecil Gee
honing in on the VIX long play that will break the camels back, looks like its not that far away now maybe a month or two when I will be able to put that long call order in
the VIX trade is getting closer, could be another 4-6 weeks before it aligns then the real volatility kicks in until then equities may just drift higher Apple could see 107 before its pull back
  • #12,074
  • Feb 18, 2016 12:11pm Feb 18, 2016 12:11pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Speaking of legging in ... . There are couple of different ways to put on iron condors. The most obvious one is to slap it on all at once. Another way is to leg into the short put side on weakness and the short call side on strength, which requires patience and a bit of sweat if your delta is imbalanced and the market's moving toward your "unprotected side," which you have yet to match up with an oppositional side because you're legging in.
I just do option 2. I have not been so active on these as I need to be. They have been fairly reliable. If you have a lot of them running at the same time, you can wheel and deal - take off the ones that are in good profit and use some of that equity to adjust the ones that are looking dicey. I thought I was getting into the habit of pretty much just running SPY vert credit spreads this way for >75% of the book, but my habits have been upset this year by let us say externalities, some good (lucrative) & some not.....

Anyway, my short vol flys for Feb expiry are looking like total losses. They were cheap, they were entered on broken wings, but I had to roll the broke wings in to free up some margin.....so they will die worthless unless Friday coughs up a miracle.

I did get out of AAPL Feb/Feb4 $101/$102 calls today for net 20c.....small consolation. Everything else is spread out to March or beyond....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,075
  • Feb 18, 2016 12:45pm Feb 18, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
the VIX trade is getting closer, could be another 4-6 weeks before it aligns then the real volatility kicks in until then equities may just drift higher Apple could see 107 before its pull back
why, do ya think? There are lots of scary things going on that could spook the markets. War escalation in the ME or South China Sea. Zika virus epidemic with no cure. Maybe the rumor of oil production cuts fizzles. The Fed surprises with another little funds rate cut at the March FOMC - if not then ok start worrying about June. Brexit drama heats up. China unequivocal financial meltdown.

The US presidential election drama, I think, will cast a cloud over US equities. I won't go into all the permutations there, but until it appears there is a certain outcome for the nominees, Wall Street will gyrate with the uncertainty.....

I am hoping for a vol collapse to play long vol on for the post Mar FOMC scenario....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,076
  • Feb 18, 2016 5:25pm Feb 18, 2016 5:25pm
Quoting The Fool
I just do option 2.....
If you want to leg in to your leg ins, you can try to get into your long legs early and sell the short legs later. This limits your size but maybe that's a blessing in disguise.

I have been looking at getting into UVXY call flys this way - wait for UVXY to bottom (easy to call bottom with crystal ball, sold separately) and buy the front & back calls while they are cheap. Then, as UVXY spikes, you can

a) just sell the calls - even vfotm calls will get fatter in a spike if you have enough time on them, or
b) if you think the vol might stick around, complete the fly with a nice short call set in the middle that gets you in the spread for cheap....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,077
  • Feb 18, 2016 7:02pm Feb 18, 2016 7:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} why, do ya think? There are lots of scary things going on that could spook the markets. War escalation in the ME or South China Sea. Zika virus epidemic with no cure. Maybe the rumor of oil production cuts fizzles. The Fed surprises with another little funds rate cut at the March FOMC - if not then ok start worrying about June. Brexit drama heats up. China unequivocal financial meltdown. The US presidential election drama, I think, will cast a cloud over US equities. I won't go into all the permutations there,...
its just based on technicals I look for when entering any trade in options but it coincides with all the above you mentioned and more, anything can trigger, I'm just looking at the VIX which is 21 and change and a fall to 10 isn't that far away. It can stay at those levels for months but the method I'm using is telling me volatility is setting up more than what we've had so far
  • #12,078
  • Edited 12:52am Feb 19, 2016 12:35am | Edited 12:52am
Quoting Cecil Gee
I'm just looking at the VIX which is 21 and change and a fall to 10 isn't that far away.
WOW, VIX 10 would mean /ES back to 2100 - 2150 or more, boy that would be phun....I guess I could see it if oil comes along and the Fed telegraphs some dove sounds
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,079
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:47am Feb 19, 2016 12:47am
.UVXY160318C110 is the sym for the Mar UVXY $110 call. If you bought it at the low around $1.35 back @ end November, mofo has spent almost the entire 2-3 months in profit (with several pops >$5) - all the while being >$50 otm....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,080
  • Feb 19, 2016 1:05am Feb 19, 2016 1:05am
Quoting The Fool
.UVXY160318C110 is the sym for the Mar UVXY $110 call. If you bought it at the low around $1.35 back @ end November, mofo has spent almost the entire 2-3 months in profit (with several pops >$5) - all the while being >$50 otm.....
....so, this is (one reason) why you see these Apr1 $110 and $115 calls getting bought today....the long vol dream never dies...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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