The Really Useless Thread | Page 6960 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,181
  • Feb 12, 2016 2:57pm Feb 12, 2016 2:57pm
Quoting sisse
Equities with a soft move from the European close as expected and markets look set to close the week.
we'll see if China spoils the equity rally party next week....Chinese reopens after lunar new year holiday week....the largest periodic human migration on the planet.....well that burns some go juice.....markets can finish digesting meal of dove from Granma JY.....US exchanges closed Monday for Pezzidents Day....big oil rip will it get sold?.....maybe/maybe not....see the rumors around massive DWTI liquidation.....US equities can rally if oil will flatline or better.......will be watching China in next Asian Monday....have a good long weekend, US traders.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,182
  • Feb 13, 2016 3:41pm Feb 13, 2016 3:41pm
I would like to thank the contributors to this thread, I find it the most useful from all the threads in FF.

I'm a technical trader, using psych levels, mid points, trend-lines and harmonic wave's. But more interesting is the analysis of fundamental's that has inspired some great trading as of late. I can draw line's and find pattern's all day long but for me the real education is sprouting from understanding why these moves occur.

Kudos to the men and women here that share this knowledge. Much appreciated.
  • #139,183
  • Feb 14, 2016 4:23am Feb 14, 2016 4:23am
Here's my eurUsd map. I marked some key events:

--> 22-10-15: very dovish draghi hinting a QE boost
--> 28-10-15: FED firmly puts december hike on the agenda
--> 03-12-15: draghi flop
--> 27-01-16: FED dovish again on market turmoils

So we have ECB events (and related moves) in yellow and FED's in blue. The two yellow rectangles on the chart are the same size and the two blue rectangles are the same size. So basically we have ECB doing and undoing, FED doing and undoing and we are back to start (1.133). But...

we actually had a small hike so to me a fair price until central banks in march would be around 1.11 but there is a third main euro driver: risk-off.

I personally took some short on thursday night (european time) opec tweet. China holding and a quick start from equities (european above all) should result in a quick test of 1.116 since the first session of the week.

I'm a young "hobby" trader and I've been lurking ths thread for some time. Thanks to sisse and the others for the huge contribution. There is people paying Ks for such analysis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurUsd_14_02.png Size: 70 KB
  • #139,184
  • Feb 14, 2016 1:30pm Feb 14, 2016 1:30pm
Quoting rioMario
Here's my eurUsd map. I marked some key events: --> 22-10-15: very dovish draghi hinting a QE boost --> 28-10-15: FED firmly puts december hike on the agenda --> 03-12-15: draghi flop --> 27-01-16: FED dovish again on market turmoils So we have ECB events (and related moves) in yellow and FED's in blue. The two yellow rectangles on the chart are the same size and the two blue rectangles are the same size. So basically we have ECB doing and undoing, FED doing and undoing and we are back to start (1.133). But... we actually had a small hike so to...
Congrats on choosing the best thread on FF
  • #139,185
  • Feb 14, 2016 5:10pm Feb 14, 2016 5:10pm
@rioMArio

thanks for the nice explanation its very understandable...

i came to a conclusion that more or less the speeches should be watched for longer term... the week data doesnt do so much long term just some quick scalps..

this dudley speech wasnt on FF calender, didnt even know it was scheduled, his dovishnes took the stops


does anyone have a more reliable source for the calendar?
  • #139,186
  • Feb 15, 2016 12:33am Feb 15, 2016 12:33am
Quoting Vladimir1987
does anyone have a more reliable source for the calendar?
not sure it has what you need but this is a good site

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/calendar
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,187
  • Feb 15, 2016 8:13am Feb 15, 2016 8:13am
A case of dollar weakness then on the back of China offloading their dollar reserves coupled with the carry trade unwind means we can officially lockdown the cause of those huge overshoots which went above and beyond "fair value" on Fiber.

On equities, S&P fared better than the rest, effortlessly holding yearly lows. DAX & Nikkei still need to test their yearly levels to either hold the breach or take them back. They've both got the support of actively dovish CB's, a still robust US economy plus oil holding the 28 handle.

Just a natural unwind of the over-reaction on all instruments despite nothing really changing on the data side. The real test will be on the yearly levels of Japanese, Euro equities + 1910 on S&P and 1.1143 on the pair to potentially open up 1.08 and beyond on strong QE measures from Europe alongside a repricing of hike expectations.
  • #139,188
  • Feb 15, 2016 9:24am Feb 15, 2016 9:24am
E/u

it seems testin the .114X level ... bears seems coughing to me .... draghi seems confused with the monetary policy ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,189
  • Feb 15, 2016 12:08pm Feb 15, 2016 12:08pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
A case of dollar weakness then on the back of China offloading their dollar reserves coupled with the carry trade unwind means we can officially lockdown the cause of those huge overshoots which went above and beyond "fair value" on Fiber. ...
indeed, a clear (inverse) correlation with equities (s&p in the chart) can be seen in the last euro move (1.116->1.136->1.114)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: correlation.png Size: 39 KB
  • #139,190
  • Edited 4:19am Feb 16, 2016 4:18am | Edited 4:19am
Still going good on eu.

Thinking of the right shoulder forming now till 1,13 level and then continue with the down movement iaw the weekly outlook.

The highs should not be reached for this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-05_2116.png Size: 38 KB
  • #139,191
  • Feb 16, 2016 4:38am Feb 16, 2016 4:38am
Quoting Vladimir1987
Still going good on eu. Thinking of the right shoulder forming now till 1,13 level and then continue with the down movement iaw the weekly outlook. The highs should not be reached for this. {image}
Wouldn't ECB not expanding QE strengthen the Euro? & cause EUR/USD to go higher? or am I missing something?
  • #139,192
  • Feb 16, 2016 7:08am Feb 16, 2016 7:08am
Quoting Vorex
{quote} Wouldn't ECB not expanding QE strengthen the Euro? & cause EUR/USD to go higher? or am I missing something?
would love to answer the question but sisse is more reliable for that.

Il just plot my thoughts, dont take them to seriously

I think if they do more qe it would strengthen the euro but also a dovish fed now coming with some ideas of negative deposit rates should weaken the dollar cause their plan of hiking doesnt seem so solid anymore.

So this could be seen as an technical retrace till fed.
Have to take into account that this was week ago so i guess we will retrace till the break of the tl.
There should be decided up or down... Maybe till 15 march the date of the fed or 10th of march with the ECB...

Red possible scenario/ yellow extension/ red if fed hikes at least i think (longterm)


This is just my opinion...


Better that Sisse kicks in with some explanation..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-16_1347.png Size: 70 KB
  • #139,193
  • Feb 16, 2016 7:44am Feb 16, 2016 7:44am
I wonder whats going to happen when they stop buying bonds?

The yields should rise i guess? Starting a massive fall across the markets?
Now were at the era of fixing yields with QE bond buying programs but how long can this run, for me its just an artificial demand buildup..

Any thoughts on that...
  • #139,194
  • Feb 16, 2016 7:58am Feb 16, 2016 7:58am
Quoting Vladimir1987
I wonder whats going to happen when they stop buying bonds? The yields should rise i guess? Starting a massive fall across the markets? Now were at the era of fixing yields with QE bond buying programs but how long can this run, for me its just an artificial demand buildup.. Any thoughts on that...
Vladimir, you are mistaken about the effect of more QE. When there is one statement about more QE, there is one drop in the bias. No QE, and look what happened in December. Just, take a look at RioMario chart.
More QE implies more bond buying programme, or corporative, or whatever it takes, but implies more Euros in the system, so less value for the currency, depreciation.

The question about what will happen when the QE bond buying will stop is a good question. Similar is happening with the problems FED is facing trying to hike the rates or coming back to a ``normal era´´ after a QE period. Of course, there is a bubble in the bond market. How they will manage to avoid an implosion and burst a worse crisis they are trying to keep with the QE? Maybe we should take a look at US, althought is not good to compare US and Europe..
  • #139,195
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:09am Feb 16, 2016 8:09am
Soft moves across the board in the last few sessions but China and the US are finally back on the table.

Us equities look eager to shake out some of the losses this year and make a quick run before March FED/CB combo. Eyes on 1875.x in the S&P for the opening range to ignite and complete the leg to 1956.xx before March.

On the rest of the board all moving as expected including in the Euro that needs a push from equities to move beyond the current levels. Week set to start today so not much to do here with same levels, same trades, same all ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,196
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:13am Feb 16, 2016 9:13am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} It just confirmed 98.60's as bear target. Looking forward for a bounce to sell towards it.. 110.50 is a pivot for bullishness towards 114.30;s or bearishness towards 108.80/40
Quoting sisse
{quote}[...] Expecting BOJ to start softening down[check] late Q2 and yen start to fade down below 120.xx for a sharp momentum [check] leg toward 100.xx [in play]that will leave us chopping around till the end 2016. [...] Short term, the leg is pretty much over, crumbs away 110.3x. As soon as we short term bottom in OIL we are going for a sharp retrace 116.7x with...
I rarely trade this cross to say the least, thanks a lot both to highlight this great configuration
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 187 KB
  • #139,197
  • Feb 16, 2016 11:06am Feb 16, 2016 11:06am
Sisse,
many thanks for your posts! A lot of knowledge and experience in every one.

Could you share with us your opinion about gold? IMO, looks like it has no clear direction. Thank you!
  • #139,198
  • Feb 16, 2016 11:35am Feb 16, 2016 11:35am
Quoting sisse
Important updates coming with the European close.

--> Changing short term outlook in OIL from strong sell to NEUTRAL...will revaluate when China comes back to the table next week.

--> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from buy to NEUTRAL.

sisse
Key closing US session on the making. A major clear out in OIL from the Saudis, Venezuela, Russian announcement with China finding soft foot after the long Holidays clearing risk from the table. OIL holdingthe $29.xx handle for the close/minutes play unlocks a sharp pullback $42.5x with momentum after clearing 32.7x.

Tracking the close to update short term outlook in OIL from Neutral to Buy

sisse

Quoting dzaja
SCould you share with us your opinion about gold? IMO, looks like it has no clear direction. Thank you!
Check back posts... ECB QE and soft FED coming soon to our theatres ...you can do the maths ...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,199
  • Feb 16, 2016 11:48am Feb 16, 2016 11:48am
Another choppy zone started to fill with fed/ecb ... Let's c where minutes takes it tomorrow ... Or will create a big chop zone ... Bears failing to break ... Hope to get a good ride ... Nothing to see today ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,200
  • Feb 16, 2016 12:16pm Feb 16, 2016 12:16pm
Quoting sisse
.........short term outlook in OIL from Neutral to Buy ...
....would be nice to get some more jawbone support - without it, long OIL could be a tough climb
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
31 traders viewing now