Oh dear D! I hope you will recover soon.
- #10,182
- Feb 12, 2016 1:05pm Feb 12, 2016 1:05pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
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- #10,183
- Feb 12, 2016 2:03pm Feb 12, 2016 2:03pm
- | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 3,121 Posts
Become the casino
- #10,190
- Edited 5:52am Feb 14, 2016 5:19am | Edited 5:52am
Erasmus. I have also sometimes problems detecting, when market is on sideways mode ie. I take trades in too tight range. Better to just wait bigger moves first and start trading only then. It's only so lucrative to start trading setups right away.
Just look at 999 chart with candles and it looked pretty clear
After looking at some of the charts posted by Divergence and Erasmus, it seems that we are looking for two or more legged pullbacks, when market is trending. Besides studying the charts to get a feeling of degree of choppiness/trendiness, I have examined some indicators such as DMI/ADX, choppiness index, vortex indicator, etc. So far, I cannot find a good trend indicator, especially for reversal after a strong trend.
On Friday, it seems to me that YM just chopped and exploded without good pullbacks most of the time. It may be difficult for this strategy.
I have been told to look for one-legged pullback, when price is trending very strongly. However, I cannot find a set of objective criteria that will accurately detect a very strong trend.
Just my two cents. Any comments are welcome.
PS: Monday is a holiday. I guess we have time to bullshit a little.
- #10,191
- Feb 14, 2016 6:59am Feb 14, 2016 6:59am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
{quote} {quote} Hi Guys, After looking at some of the charts posted by Divergence and Erasmus, it seems that we are looking for two or more legged pullbacks, when market is trending. Besides studying the charts to get a feeling of degree of choppiness/trendiness, I have examined some indicators such as DMI/ADX, choppiness index, vortex indicator, etc. So far, I cannot find a good trend indicator, especially for reversal after a strong trend. On Friday, it seems to me that YM just chopped and exploded without good pullbacks most of the time. It may...
Hi MM,
What you refer too is basic EW. I do not know of any indicator that will help you. A knowledge of EW and the most common Fibonacci retracement levels will help, but in all honesty, it takes thousands of hours of studying to even begin to get close to know what to expect next.
Here is a basic chart i quickly knocked up;
Basically, all impulse moves (with trend) are in sequence of 5waves, each impulse move also breaks down into 5 smaller subwaves. Corrective moves (our pullbacks) are in 3waves (abc) of various sizes. The larger main corrective moves within a sequence (waves 2&4), will be larger than the corrective waves of each individual impulse wave and thus easier to identify (in theory!), those will more than likely look like the two legged pullback that you refer too, whereas, the others will likely not be so identifiable (without observing in a lower timescale) and thus look like a single leg pullback.
Ok ok i know, it all sounds complex, but the main thing that can be taken from this is that the most likely single legged pullback that you will encounter will be the one immediately after a larger one... ie, a pullback after a fresh high will often be only minor, (hence my posts about the 'Cup & Handle set-up). Of course this is all in theory and is not always the case, but is a rough guideline...
GL
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- #10,192
- Feb 14, 2016 7:10am Feb 14, 2016 7:10am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,392 Posts
It's pretty serious but with proper maintanence changing dressing everyday and keeping it clean it will be ok. Mondays a holiday so Tuesday threw Friday this week I hope to trade tuesday
?Seriously, take it easy, H, & get well soon.
- #10,194
- Feb 14, 2016 7:17am Feb 14, 2016 7:17am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
Further to illustrate above;
Ok, so not exactly a C&H set-up, but after the larger pullback and subsequent fresh LL, we get a much smaller pullback within the next phase of the downtrend...
Ok, so not exactly a C&H set-up, but after the larger pullback and subsequent fresh LL, we get a much smaller pullback within the next phase of the downtrend...
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- #10,195
- Feb 14, 2016 7:18am Feb 14, 2016 7:18am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
- #10,198
- Feb 14, 2016 7:35am Feb 14, 2016 7:35am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
- #10,199
- Edited 9:03am Feb 14, 2016 8:50am | Edited 9:03am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,392 Posts
{quote} Hi, What do you mean by the symbiotic relationship between Wave 1 & 3 ? I only know that in an Elliott eight wave cycle, the third wave is usually the most powerful. Thanks
...... & to misquote Einstein, "Trading should be kept as simple as possible... but no simpler".
Is possible to complement it by taking the one-legged pullbacks and/or setups that work in choppy environment ?
You can - and sometimes must - adjust a trading method to really make it yours (without ruining it). Only then can you trade it with confidence.
So what I'm saying is that every trader has to answer these questions for him or herself. Backtest manually, understanding that you are almost certainly going to trade Live significantly below what your backtests results show.
As I have posted before, I never trade a method that does not have positive expectancy with just a one third win rate (ie. one third losers, one third b/e).
Trading is - or at least can be - very simple; it just isn't easy (although the difficult part lies between our ears).
99% of threads do not discuss trading psychology; 99% of retail traders never make consistent profits.... hmmm, now what to make of that
.
- #10,200
- Feb 14, 2016 9:01am Feb 14, 2016 9:01am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
{quote} Does this mean you're not jetting in for my birthday party
Is it bring a bottle JT?!
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