AUD/USD

CFTC reports commitements weekly http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Co...ders/index.htm
My reports are here http://humbletraders.com/category/co...nt-of-traders/

AUD adding long, continuous short NZD added. interesting
AUD short 6K vs 26K short prior week
NZD short 9K vs 8k short prior week

Thanks GFS and Digger1. Educational

My view on the outlook of the AUD

The role of the RBA is to insure/protect and promote the Australian economy. From my view if the Australian economy were heading into a state of recession I wouldn’t promote it as this would lead into panic station freak out the general public and just force it upon quicker. This is why you will never hear Stevens talking down the Australian economy in a negative way. From what I see our economy is in a slow to moderate decline with no foreseeable upside.

China plays a major role in this and I can tell you they are lying about the state of their economy. Fair enough they still have the highest growth but has significantly declined, which effects growth on other countries. I believe China are lying about the amount their growth is declining and as well as their unemployment figures.

When a company is about to go broke what is the 1st thing they say?

We have everything under control no need to worry about us, everything is fine and then BANG! Gone in a second.

This is what China is telling the world at the moment “Nothing to worry China is fine we are just going through a transition”

There is one thing I have learnt and that is never trust the Chinese in business because they are very sneaky.

China have posted figures like 60% of lending is for housing but what they don’t tell you is that everything is already built just sitting there waiting for buyers. They have empty mega cities they built over the last 10 years in the boom period. They can’t expand forever, and its come to an abrupt holt.

I can’t foresee any growth in the Australian economy unless our dollar is well below .70, this will be our only chance to stay out of a recession and is hinted in Stevens’s speeches.

My opinion Bulls better duck because when the bears take hold bulls won’t see it coming.

There are economist predicting another GFC in 2016-17 that will make the 2008 look like a baby, if this really is going to happen it won’t be sparked from the States but from China.

We shall see…

nothing to worry about china...world need them very badly. china is good and always will be.

AUDUSD: 4h - Daily view
Aussie has been very volatile last week despite bank holidays in CNY. It moved from the high of 0.1750 to lows at 0.6970. It closed the week at 0.7100.
This market sends mixed signals. C.O.T data shows that AUD might be turning long in midterm, but the economic data does not confirm it. We might see some more clarity this week with unemployment report. I favour long positions after larger pull back towards 0.6950 (38% fib retracement).
If AUDUSD fails to print lower low on daily charts, it would suggest, the downtrend is complete.

AUDUSD: 15-30 min view
Looking at intraday charts, AUDUSD does not provide any clear pattern to form a trading decision. Price had been moving up and down with no clear direction. I would suggest to wait for more price action here. I still keep my long bias. Break above 0.7220 would confirm more strength, otherwise is mixed.
Bulls @ 0.7220
Bears @ 0.7090

Hi Digger1
I wrote an article explaining how COT can be useful for any traders swing or daily.
I hope I can convince you guys to consider it as a part of trading routine. It was an eye opener for me many years ago.
I cant trade without it.
See how this can predict prices and how not necessary lag is an issue.
How Commitment of Traders report predicted USDJPY decline.

Daily chart can tell you same and is up to date. COT is issued on Friday which is end of trading week for retail trader.... a few days later on Tuesday next week Market makers have already new plan with new contracts in place without our knowing until next Friday and so on ...so we know already history data just for one day only...you have just perception that COT helps you....If it was intended to help retail trader report would be issued on Tuesday or Wednesday...

Looking on daily chart trader is updated in real time.

My good friend if it helps you then I am all for it, myself I guess I just kept practicing reading charts lol, I know the report is going to reflect what price has already done. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,The USdjpy spent over 4 quarters making a big head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart with the same pattern showing up in equities I didnt need a report to predict what was happening there , price projection from that was roughly 980 pip drop, it cracked just over 1000 from the daily 200 sma,, Stating again , not knocking it if it helps you and you can show others in a way that will help them Im all for it friend, myself personally it is matter of factly news as stated ....................... On to the auusie lol Kinda stuck between last quarters low and the quarterly pivot think all could agree with that since price is hitting each one almost to the pip, 4 hour shows a beautiful H&S pattern but it aint dropping so blinding shorting based on that would be cautioned, head area is apt to be tested again by the looks or the quarterly pivot Im more inclined to go with the daily chart pattern here which tells me we could get a pop higher to the area shown on the daily chart The quarterly open and the daily sma200 is 7285 ish area , . Wishing everyone a great week , cheers all

For grins and chuckles, Currently price wavering around the shoulder area on the 4 hour chart posted earlier. My scalping view since open, I added a few longs in the area shown , not much but a few, already have several from Friday yet , did use that for a timing mechanism so to speak for a few longs in the nzdusd and boat load of shorts in the euraud , which pip wise the euraud shorts have gained more. profit taken on most with a few runners left with stops a couple pips in the money so all taken today are free now. Scaling gets hard to follow on the short time frame charts but pip count is the same lol. Onward to the london open to figure it all out again , cheers all,

hmm digger, you use stochastics? what does 20 TD mean?

td= todays range. The other is yesterdays range,,,,, pip count

A few more grins , updated scalping charts, there was another entry point , I didnt take it , quite content to let the runners do their thing, the aud is approaching last weeks high (the long wick on the 4 hour chart) good place to take some day trade profits or move the stops up, the aud runners and nzd runners are just over 30 pips profit, the euraud short runners are over 100 pips up and fast approaching last weeks low, good run for the Asian session

Watching out for the downside of AUDUSD from here, almost completed an abc retracement (correction) of previous range (an impulse wave).

Umm The world doesnt need China.

Its indicating here that its starting to turn their backs on it

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-into-new-year

Potential H&S on my 4hourly

Yep , been noted earlier , that high is last weeks high could be used for a bit of support , much better shorting area from retest of the head area which is the quarterly pivot as noted earlier.

The spike high almost in your lower left part of the right circle

.7152 to be exact lol, right where it bounced from ,,,,,,,,, not saying its going to the head area , but a bit of caution advised shorting here especially with the eur on its back feet right now and the euraud dropping

Will be scalping for now, upon the break of neckline, i will give full shots of shorts!