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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,161
  • Feb 11, 2016 8:15am Feb 11, 2016 8:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dax no bounce target yet.. uj had hit 114.95 also. it usually will bounce some also. unless uj gets above 115.54,, the dax (equities )and eu drop. probably wont go far. eu normal drop is 1161/64 (1164/1086) 1115/1086 a support zone. just below 1161 is 1159. a valid st bull target to 1374/99 exist as long as above 1086.. even than uj +- 115.54 should be taking into consideration. uj 106.xx drop still a target {image}
got any norm around 1211? I see an attraction but its target looks "unreal" it could be a domino
  • #139,162
  • Edited 8:47am Feb 11, 2016 8:31am | Edited 8:47am
chester123,

I could not have have said it any better than you did! You nailed MY psych! I got so focused on the LEVEL (number) and not what was happening in the Markets as a WHOLE. I just didn't want to repeat the same mistake when I thought I missed the MID TERM LEG. Now, I understand that there will be opportunities (like now) once the MID TERM LEG starts in order for me to get a position when a SHORT TERM LEG presents itself.

I just got to impatient and excited as I did with trading News Flows with Short and MID term legs. I created another mistake in my trading and am literally PAYING for it. I am going to really focus on the WEEKLY chart and levels while watching where we are at in the Market. Just because, let's say PA goes to .06XX, doesn't mean we are going to .0516/.0460/.02xx if the Market is not ready for it. It will eventually for MID TERM LEG/MACRO view but I need to be more cautious and not just jump in or out because of this level. I need to manage my RISK better!

I am hopeful I will learn how to play this MID TERM LEG regarding capital management. My idea is to exit the trades I have on now around the .0806/.0790 handle and look for a Short Term Leg to get in another position for the MID TERM LEG. I believe this would allow me to not lose much capital when price retraces. Just my thinking. I could be way off. I am anxious to see if this is wrong way to trade this regarding CAPITAL MANAGEMENT/RISK.

TIMING is an issue for me and understanding VOLATILITY (Pace of PA in a TF).

I wish you all the best in your trades and always enjoy seeing your take on things as well. You are farther ahead of me in your trading. I appreciate your input!
  • #139,163
  • Feb 11, 2016 8:58am Feb 11, 2016 8:58am
This was my MAP when sisse challenged me to come up with one. I was either way off or maybe it has some merit. TIME will Tell. I posted this chart a couple months back. I hope my STEEL SUPPORT (RESISTANCE)HOLDS.
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  • #139,164
  • Feb 11, 2016 9:20am Feb 11, 2016 9:20am
Quoting IMARICH1
This was my MAP when sisse challenged me to come up with one. I was either way off or maybe it has some merit. TIME will Tell. I posted this chart a couple months back. I hope my STEEL SUPPORT (RESISTANCE)HOLDS. {image}
Dude this is not only your steel support 90% of traders around the globe has this support/resistance ... And trust me what I think that it might hold for some days or week but will be crushed by the hippopotamus in no time... The way pa is reacting right now doesn't seems good to me... And as we can all see the whole thing is happening just coz of equities and oil... So I am neutral right now with very small open and trailing... I hope some1 agree to me ...hehehe
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,165
  • Edited 10:49am Feb 11, 2016 9:30am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting IMARICH1
chester123, I could not have have said it any better than you did! You nailed MY psych! I got so focused on the LEVEL (number) and not what was happening in the Markets as a WHOLE. I just didn't want to repeat the same mistake when I thought I missed the MID TERM LEG. Now, I understand that there will be opportunities (like now) once the MID TERM LEG starts in order for me to get a position when a SHORT TERM LEG presents itself. I just got to impatient and excited as I did with trading News Flows with Short and MID term legs. I created another mistake...
this is completely legit plan for now! I think the exact best exit strategy/price lvl is gonna depend on how the mid term swing structure evolves, which im not capable of guessing right now. But I bet we can map all of that here and discuss the timing as well once the time comes

So just for the sake of illustration/discussion: I took short 1,1356 - on the 3rd H1 candle overshooting the 1,134 lvl. (Chart 1)

Aim? = to close half after short term swing down + to let other half run mid term.
Specificity of the timing? = its time and level, which is identical for potentional start of short and mid term swing.
Is it right from the perspective of timing? = hmmm, not sure; I hope it is; well see; maybe sisse drops some criticism on timing (or everything else ideally )

** But still I think this is not how I should do it in the mid term swing/timeframe - i feel like this lvl is completely irrelevant on mid term - Im kind of lost - time to re-read ur convs with sisse

Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Dude this is not only your steel support 90% of traders around the globe has this support/resistance ... And trust me what I think that it might hold for some days or week but will be crushed by the hippopotamus in no time... The way pa is reacting right now doesn't seems good to me... And as we can all see the whole thing is happening just coz of equities and oil... So I am neutral right now with very small open and trailing... I hope some1 agree to me ...hehehe
I think that the rumours about Saudis invading Syria can be the beginning of a bottom in oil. Of course there is many other rumours but if the invasion actually takes place my guess is gonna be more like a conviction - because the invasion is gonna be like a thrwing a gun-powder barrel into fire....

---------------------------

anyone knows wtf is gold doing???
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  • #139,166
  • Feb 11, 2016 10:46am Feb 11, 2016 10:46am
Have to really learn fundamentals ... I am getting it really hard to grasp .. How to corelate ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,167
  • Feb 11, 2016 10:56am Feb 11, 2016 10:56am
Markets are losing faith in central banking monetary policy
TE started 6/4/19
  • #139,168
  • Feb 11, 2016 10:39pm Feb 11, 2016 10:39pm
It's not like sisse to not post a recap of the day or map for news flows w German GDP numbers coming in in about 2 1/2 hrs. Hope he is doing well. Will be up at 2am to track the news flows. Hopefully, it is enough to tip the Mid Term Leg
  • #139,169
  • Feb 11, 2016 10:53pm Feb 11, 2016 10:53pm
Quoting IMARICH1
This was my MAP when sisse challenged me to come up with one. I was either way off or maybe it has some merit. TIME will Tell. I posted this chart a couple months back. I hope my STEEL SUPPORT (RESISTANCE)HOLDS. {image}
Please bear with me here as I'm still on page 4713 of the thread.
What does MAP stand for? Furthermore, what is a mid retrace and what is a mid term swing? What is the best technical analysis tool to use to determine this and what time frame yields more accurate predictions? Thanks
  • #139,170
  • Feb 11, 2016 11:37pm Feb 11, 2016 11:37pm
Quoting Chibaya
{quote} Please bear with me here as I'm still on page 4713 of the thread. What does MAP stand for? Furthermore, what is a mid retrace and what is a mid term swing? What is the best technical analysis tool to use to determine this and what time frame yields more accurate predictions? Thanks
MAP: i dont know, a map perhaps? mid retrace is a 50% retrace of a move. If you know what a swing is, them a mid term swings stands between long term swings & short term swings, of course long & short depends of ones perspective, I think for most people here these are the ones that can be easily spotted on a daily chart.

If more accurate predictions means a higher winrate, then choose higher TFs
  • #139,171
  • Feb 12, 2016 12:52am Feb 12, 2016 12:52am
Quoting primejarvis
Have to really learn fundamentals ... I am getting it really hard to grasp .. How to corelate ...
I believe in order to get Sisse-level of market understanding one has to work either in a big financial institution or in some financial authority supervising such institutions for a long period of time to get an understanding how the market thinks. This is something that a vast majority of retail traders (including me) will never get ((((
  • #139,172
  • Feb 12, 2016 1:06am Feb 12, 2016 1:06am
German Prelim GDP inline. Met forecast. Was hoping for a miss. Not sure how this will play out. Hoping this was priced into PA already and Fed not raising rates expectation. Nevertheless, this could show on target for EU economy recovery and help DAX.
  • #139,173
  • Feb 12, 2016 4:01am Feb 12, 2016 4:01am
Dollar Long-Term

Some ideas.

EURUSD
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GBPUSD
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USDCHF
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USDJPY
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USDRUB
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GOLD
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Good income to all, miracles do not exist.
  • #139,174
  • Feb 12, 2016 4:07am Feb 12, 2016 4:07am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} MAP: i dont know, a map perhaps? mid retrace is a 50% retrace of a move. If you know what a swing is, them a mid term swings stands between long term swings & short term swings, of course long & short depends of ones perspective, I think for most people here these are the ones that can be easily spotted on a daily chart. If more accurate predictions means a higher winrate, then choose higher TFs
Thanks for the response.
I guess I'll go back to trawling this forum to improve understanding.
  • #139,175
  • Feb 12, 2016 6:40am Feb 12, 2016 6:40am
Quoting Maks
{quote} I believe in order to get Sisse-level of market understanding one has to work either in a big financial institution or in some financial authority supervising such institutions for a long period of time to get an understanding how the market thinks. This is something that a vast majority of retail traders (including me) will never get ((((
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,176
  • Feb 12, 2016 6:49am Feb 12, 2016 6:49am
Quoting sisse
Strong opening range and now officially tested my DAX level 873x.x....
No surprises in the morning with German inline numbers and industrial numbers confirming the slowdown in the rest of the Eurozone. DAX 873x showing to be strong enough and a soft push from the US can trigger a sharp rejection as early as today to 922x in a rather strong weekly close.

Oil ticked below the handle in futures yesterday but on strictly technical sense hasn't finish the leg. However, it looks set to a short term bottom only grinding down the lows until China (very important) comes back to the table and/or OPEC step in.

On the rest of the board, US with the upper hand with reports coming. Not expecting much but inline or better will trigger direct moves across the board and push equities higher. On the Euro, nothing new, all as expected and it will move as collateral of the rest. A sharp rally in Equities for the European close will just unlock momentum via profit taking extending the intraday leg as low as 1.114x for the W close

....not much to do here until reports so same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,177
  • Feb 12, 2016 7:50am Feb 12, 2016 7:50am
sisse,

Glad to see you back. Got to addicted to seeing your posts at the ROllS of the sessions! I stayed up until 2:30am US to watch the German GDP come out. Inline and thought it might push EU up. But, maybe since it was just inline and not more or less it was just a wash....

If you get bored for some reason, would like you to check out chester123 and I's posts a page or so back. Wondered if you would have any comments good or bad.

Goodluck with your trades and thanks for sharing your insight into the markets!
  • #139,178
  • Edited 10:46am Feb 12, 2016 8:20am | Edited 10:46am
A fairly solid, if far from spectacular, retail sales print from the US.

A further uptick in the coming months is hoped for, with consumers starting to spend some of the savings from cheaper gas and lower interest rates. With the slow down in manufacturing, this hoped for uptick is badly needed to avoid an outright contraction in economic growth.
  • #139,179
  • Feb 12, 2016 9:13am Feb 12, 2016 9:13am
Nothing out of the mean from reports. Slightly better sales, slightly miss on the Consumer Confidence headline but solid trends continue in general.

Europe going home will settle the day. Failure to take the current highs in Equities by the European close will leave us in chop zone for the rest of day ...otherwise we will get the soft continuation across the board while OIL holding above the $27 handle unlocks retrace till China takes over ....

Quoting IMARICH1
.... If you get bored for some reason, would like you to check out chester123 and I's posts a page or so back. Wondered if you would have any comments good or bad.
I would get back to you guys later. Nice to see the thread alive and kicking with quality posts....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,180
  • Feb 12, 2016 1:09pm Feb 12, 2016 1:09pm
Flawless and super yummy trade in OIL and we are pretty much cover until next week. Equities with a soft move from the European close as expected and markets look set to close the week. Very marginal chance for something else with US buying the short term 'bargain' on the closing range but we are rather set to roll in the same areas in play all week long including in the Euro...

Tracking loosely the W close as most levels in play a rather irrelevant ...so managing positions with same levels, same trades, same all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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