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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,121
  • Feb 10, 2016 3:43pm Feb 10, 2016 3:43pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Next time you're in contact with Mr. kenfen please encourage him to take out the trash
I have axed sisse multiple times to start his own thread (this has become his thread more or less, after all) - then he could take on that task, but I guess he just doesn't get it...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,122
  • Feb 10, 2016 3:46pm Feb 10, 2016 3:46pm
No surprises for the close. Euro also set to roll at the expected 1.128x.... For those on 'roll playig' cheap tickets available in the Euro for Friday play and beyond.

Here looking for entries in Gold, US equities, GU for the rest of the week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,123
  • Feb 10, 2016 3:50pm Feb 10, 2016 3:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have axed sisse multiple times to start his own thread (this has become his thread more or less, after all) - then he could take on that task, but I guess he just doesn't get it...
No worries ...selection of the fittest. Trolls, spammers, lazy traders,,etc they leave by themselves ...intelligent and interesting market talk is the natural repellent ....sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,124
  • Feb 10, 2016 4:01pm Feb 10, 2016 4:01pm
True, sisse - all anyone really needs is their own ignore button. There is something to be said for proactive thread moderation, though...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,125
  • Feb 10, 2016 4:22pm Feb 10, 2016 4:22pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
Nasty DAX sell-off yesterday with no hard references in sight contrary to S&P and Nikkei which are still holding strong levels right at the lows. Dollar strength from core levels is keeping the pair capped despite treasuries breaching 131 and gold 1182 on risk.
Continuation moves on risk off with gold and treasuries holding the breach. Oil is at the lows so lets wait for something to give and hopefully it does quickly. 96.27 in play today (the most immediate reference for the pair in my book.) but obviously couldn't hold in this environment.
  • #139,126
  • Feb 10, 2016 5:37pm Feb 10, 2016 5:37pm
Quoting sisse
No surprises for the close. Euro also set to roll at the expected 1.128x.... For those on 'roll playig' cheap tickets available in the Euro for Friday play and beyond. Here looking for entries in Gold, US equities, GU for the rest of the week... sisse
Sir Sisse i always read your posts, and i first time make a comment today, i would like to say thank you for your knowledge you share with all of us, i have learned alot from your posts, and today i ask if i may, could you guide levels in gold, midterm/ next leg
Thanks again ��
  • #139,127
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:10pm Feb 10, 2016 6:10pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have axed sisse multiple times to start his own thread (this has become his thread more or less, after all) - then he could take on that task, but I guess he just doesn't get it...
Tax return coming in this week, hoping to load up some more powder for crude leaps, still needs to hit 25.34 in my books

Still have some $ waiting for it as is
  • #139,128
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:32pm Feb 10, 2016 6:32pm
the uj low is 113.10.. it has some support at 113.09/05 ish.. i think the better chance for a little bounce is near its current level near 113.09. possible 114.91 norm coming, before 112.91.. small pip risk for possible 200 pips.. stops dont need to be but a few pips below 112.91.. either way a uj short is probably better at 114.91. 114.91/115.57
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,129
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:46pm Feb 10, 2016 6:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
the uj low is 113.10.. it has some support at 113.09/05 ish.. i think the better chance for a little bounce is near its current level near 113.09. possible 114.91 norm coming, before 112.91.. small pip risk for possible 200 pips.. stops dont need to be but a few pips below 112.91.. either way a uj short is probably better at 114.91. 114.91/115.57
not! i was trying to set up a pending entry at 112.99 and the thing is already below... saved me 10 pips..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,130
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:50pm Feb 10, 2016 6:50pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Tax return coming in this week, hoping to load up some more powder for crude leaps, still needs to hit 25.34 in my books Still have some $ waiting for it as is
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-lo...200111804.html

we could see sub $20....black shit might flatline for longer than your LEAPS have to live....anyway, if you plan on living a long time, might be better to just bite the bullet and buy USO shares (I am looking for <$7.00 there) - or maybe UCO, although careful with the latter, as the SEC has been talking about messing up the leveraged ETF playspace....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,131
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:54pm Feb 10, 2016 6:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-lo...200111804.html we could see sub $20....black shit might flatline for longer than your LEAPS have to live....anyway, if you plan on living a long time, might be better to just bite the bullet and buy USO shares (I am looking for <$7.00 there) - or maybe UCO, although careful with the latter, as the SEC has been talking about messing up the leveraged ETF playspace....
Yeah I guess at $7 a share they aren't that bad actually.
  • #139,132
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:06pm Feb 10, 2016 7:06pm
something's gotta give though, just a matter of time.....well, everything can be boiled to down to questions of time.....anyway, some of the nastier shit is so cheap now you can't even give it away....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...h-dakota-crude
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,133
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:10pm Feb 10, 2016 9:10pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Next time you're in contact with Mr. kenfen please encourage him to take out the trash
sissy can take out most of it, if is inclined.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,134
  • Edited 9:28pm Feb 10, 2016 9:12pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-lo...200111804.html we could see sub $20....black shit might flatline for longer than your LEAPS have to live....anyway, if you plan on living a long time, might be better to just bite the bullet and buy USO shares (I am looking for <$7.00 there) - or maybe UCO, although careful with the latter, as the SEC has been talking about messing up the leveraged ETF playspace....
my chart says brent 14.11 since august.. but a 56 dead cat is possible before 14.11 (not going to happen as long as storage is full.).. all the targets pryer have been met, from 110ish.. wholesale gasoline has been as low as $0.89.. .89 is a big deal because of timing. this time of year many refineries have their shutdowns (turnaround maintenance ).. gasoline usually rises during the shutdown period. so this drop is not a good sign for any oil rise. add in iran coming online with tankers already full, russia at record pumping.. the whole world at pumping highs.. u.s. pumping is still level even with a lower rig count.. oh and china in the shitter, not needing as much oil.

a world energy reset will do that.. not as many sceptics as a few years back..some even embrace it as it was in their plan now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,135
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:54pm Feb 10, 2016 9:54pm
SUB $15 rolls it back to the last century....but......if you believe the "cost of production" bar graphs that pop up every few days, there are just a few producers that can make money down there - SA, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, .....the last men standing in the battle royale..............it is hard to call......my favorite fantasy is we see a rally almost as steep as the collapse and my various long calls go deeeeep in the money........been losing money on those for about a year now btw....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,136
  • Edited 10:54pm Feb 10, 2016 10:29pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting The Fool
SUB $15 rolls it back to the last century....but......if you believe the "cost of production" bar graphs that pop up every few days, there are just a few producers that can make money down there - SA, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, .....the last men standing in the battle royale..............it is hard to call......my favorite fantasy is we see a rally almost as steep as the collapse and my various long calls go deeeeep in the money........been losing money on those for about a year now btw.... {image}
yeah i hear people say that, but russia and even other countries are not going to stop pumping at 5$ pb.. the ruble is not the usd. oil countries (government owned producers) who depend on export oil sales will pump. the alternative is 0$ coming in. on economies desperate for usd. the usd being of higher value than just a few months ago is also part of the oil drop.. a 2008 usd is not the same as a 2016 one.. if you inflation adjust .. oil is today priced today at post ww2 prices... at that time the world was in a expansion boom.. the world just needs a reset. to the way things were before 1973... when the u.s. oil deficit changed the world. that no longer can be true in my lifetime. the last 40 years are a anomaly. most here dont have a clue how real interest rates were just 25+ years ago. few have a concept of the real supply and demand market w/o government making fake demand like they have done since the mid eighties. before the fed stole the older generations savings.

it takes about 2 months to have these modern ground rigs pumping.. when oil reaches a favorable price.. those with idle equipment will kick the dust off and pump oil. long before 100 $ oil.. and force down the price. in a reset those oil workers take a pay cut and anyone else who depends on it. lower oil makes things cost less and eventually it all makes sense.. if prices drop (deflation) 10%..in 2016... then rise 2% (inflation)in 2017.. that's a 2% rise at that point good enough for fed.. even though its a negative 8% over the 2 years. no raise on the drop... but once at a level and it rises at the magical equilibrium number that nobody knows.. you can get inflation..forward from the low.

unless russia invades saudi arabia or one like it.. oil is likely find a price closer to 40 than 100
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,137
  • Feb 11, 2016 12:03am Feb 11, 2016 12:03am
Quoting The Fool
might be better to just bite the bullet and buy USO shares (I am looking for <$7.00 there) - or maybe UCO, although careful with the latter, as the SEC has been talking about messing up the leveraged ETF playspace....
....another way to go, strictly for the bottom picker ace, short term, not a good choice for buy 'n hold
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,138
  • Feb 11, 2016 12:22am Feb 11, 2016 12:22am
Quoting gatorinla
unless russia invades saudi arabia or one like it.. oil is likely find a price closer to 40 than 100
SA and neighbors can swing the price if they want to, I'd bet a more likely scenario is a grand bargain to cut output, but maybe this is quite some time away, who knows?...maybe an emergency OPEC meeting?.......maybe the next regular meeting first week of June?..........anyway, the question for a trader is: how to trade oil now? or, should I wait?

Personally, I am waiting to see wti fall below $25 before I go superbull - the latter meaning I would sell puts to fund long call spreads....in my dream I see this trade unfolding in the latter end of Q1, to catch the uptick in seasonal demand and a move from $25 to $45 or better, a fast short squeeze into the Summer....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,139
  • Feb 11, 2016 2:23am Feb 11, 2016 2:23am
USD/JPY 111.90's highly probable reversal area..
69
  • #139,140
  • Feb 11, 2016 2:57am Feb 11, 2016 2:57am
heading towards 0% for 10Y Bunds....

BUND D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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