Hi Alumten, How exactly is it again you determine the profit targets? Is is simply from the previous swing low, (or high), or do any fibs come into play also?
HAC & RAC - A Simple-Minded Approach
- #186
- Feb 10, 2016 10:54pm Feb 10, 2016 10:54pm
NZDUSD - Current Conditions
The chart below is reminiscent of the GBPUSD chart, is it not? Gee, it's almost like there's a mysterious hand at work orchestrating all of this.
Anyway, you can see that the picture is pretty similar. There was a 1x H1 short target that marked the low of the last swing, then two H1 trades that set up. One was fulfilled. The remaining one, if it comes to fruition, will be precisely at the high on the H4 chart. Recall that we predicted that the old high would be revisited and perhaps even surpassed by 135 pips to an H4 3x target. (See post 106).
The chart below is reminiscent of the GBPUSD chart, is it not? Gee, it's almost like there's a mysterious hand at work orchestrating all of this.
Anyway, you can see that the picture is pretty similar. There was a 1x H1 short target that marked the low of the last swing, then two H1 trades that set up. One was fulfilled. The remaining one, if it comes to fruition, will be precisely at the high on the H4 chart. Recall that we predicted that the old high would be revisited and perhaps even surpassed by 135 pips to an H4 3x target. (See post 106).
- #192
- Feb 11, 2016 1:54pm Feb 11, 2016 1:54pm
Homage to Captain Jack
When I began this thread I gave credit to forexalien for multiple TF analysis, learning to wait for the TFs to align and so on, but there's another person that inspired some of the other components of this method and I think if what I'm doing appeals to you, then "The Captain" is worth a read. His approach is entirely the opposite of forexalien in that he uses no indicators at all.
The Captain's "edge" lies in the premise he holds behind all market movement; it lies in the way that he thinks about it. The premise behind the Captain's method is that price is actually driven with intent - driven by brokers and market makers to specific places that will trap traders into making losing trades. His account statements speak for themselves and his accuracy rate, like forexalien, is above 95% with an R:R that is often above 10:1. You just have to respect that, regardless if you want to agree with his premise or not.
If you care to read his thread, it's on Steve Hopwood's forum. http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/php...hp?f=59&t=1572
While I wanted to use the Captain's method in that it was an uncluttered approach, there were particular elements that I found too subjective for me. Plus Alien's ways tugged at my elbow. But I took what the Captain said to heart: Market makers and brokers drive the market.
If you've ever felt 'tricked' into making a bad trade, you likely have been. How many times has an oscillator "popped," got you excited and you just jumped on it and then within minutes it shot the other way? Yeah, "they" know how to move an oscillator with the price. "They" know where the key fib levels, round numbers, pivot points and trend lines are. "They" know how to get traders interested and into the slaughterhouse.
At any rate, if the markets are driven to certain places with a specific intent, it can only mean that there's a lot of capital investment to get them there. If they are driven by deep pockets, then those participants must seek a return on their investment. Moreover, that return should be worth the time and trouble. They aren't likely making a killing; perhaps a few percent when it's all said and done, but then again, that's all a casino does.
This is the reasoning behind the "x levels." That's why they're important to use. They aren't "magical lines" like the fibs. They represent returns on investment; returns that these "investors" WILL collect one way or another.
All I'm trying to do with this is place a trade with the people who will win every time. It's important to figure out where their interests are, which is why this method has some pretty precise elements to it and is "picky" sometimes. I can't play the same way they do, but if I can divine their strategy and intentions, I can then find precise ways to participate along with them.
Anyway... "God bless the Captain!"
When I began this thread I gave credit to forexalien for multiple TF analysis, learning to wait for the TFs to align and so on, but there's another person that inspired some of the other components of this method and I think if what I'm doing appeals to you, then "The Captain" is worth a read. His approach is entirely the opposite of forexalien in that he uses no indicators at all.
The Captain's "edge" lies in the premise he holds behind all market movement; it lies in the way that he thinks about it. The premise behind the Captain's method is that price is actually driven with intent - driven by brokers and market makers to specific places that will trap traders into making losing trades. His account statements speak for themselves and his accuracy rate, like forexalien, is above 95% with an R:R that is often above 10:1. You just have to respect that, regardless if you want to agree with his premise or not.
If you care to read his thread, it's on Steve Hopwood's forum. http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/php...hp?f=59&t=1572
While I wanted to use the Captain's method in that it was an uncluttered approach, there were particular elements that I found too subjective for me. Plus Alien's ways tugged at my elbow. But I took what the Captain said to heart: Market makers and brokers drive the market.
If you've ever felt 'tricked' into making a bad trade, you likely have been. How many times has an oscillator "popped," got you excited and you just jumped on it and then within minutes it shot the other way? Yeah, "they" know how to move an oscillator with the price. "They" know where the key fib levels, round numbers, pivot points and trend lines are. "They" know how to get traders interested and into the slaughterhouse.
At any rate, if the markets are driven to certain places with a specific intent, it can only mean that there's a lot of capital investment to get them there. If they are driven by deep pockets, then those participants must seek a return on their investment. Moreover, that return should be worth the time and trouble. They aren't likely making a killing; perhaps a few percent when it's all said and done, but then again, that's all a casino does.
This is the reasoning behind the "x levels." That's why they're important to use. They aren't "magical lines" like the fibs. They represent returns on investment; returns that these "investors" WILL collect one way or another.
All I'm trying to do with this is place a trade with the people who will win every time. It's important to figure out where their interests are, which is why this method has some pretty precise elements to it and is "picky" sometimes. I can't play the same way they do, but if I can divine their strategy and intentions, I can then find precise ways to participate along with them.
Anyway... "God bless the Captain!"
- #195
- Feb 11, 2016 3:44pm Feb 11, 2016 3:44pm
- Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Invisible | 1,471 Posts
{quote} USDJPY & GBPJPY - HAC lines On both of these pairs the longer term HAC lines - green & red are coming into alignment. GJ M15 & H1 are only 25 pips apart; UJ are only 45 apart. By tomorrow the M15 & H1 will be meeting one another, so setups that occur on M15 & below should work well. H1 & H4 lines will likely take until Monday to get into alignment.
While still trying to digest all you have been teaching I would need to come up with some sort of methodical approach in order to be able to trade this. I keep missing good entries while flipping through charts. Until someone comes up with a dashboard-like solution (I am no dasboard fan b.t.w..) I'll maybe better stick to 1 or 2 pairs...
- #197
- Feb 11, 2016 4:19pm Feb 11, 2016 4:19pm
{quote} On my charts GJ M15 is 82 - and H1 278 apart, UJ not much different, strange
As for the 'dashboard,' yes I often wondered about that too. There's likely an optimal way to do that, but usually those things are misleading and give non-pertinent information too much of the time. But let's think on it. Maybe a "pipometer" between green & red HAC lines?
Also, this is one of the reasons I like the longer TF setups. There's plenty of time to spot H4 and even H1 trades most times. But even if you only focused on a couple of pairs and you had a good idea as to the overall structure of each one, well, that's not too bad either.
- #198
- Feb 11, 2016 4:40pm Feb 11, 2016 4:40pm
- Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Invisible | 1,471 Posts
{quote} I think you're comparing red to red instead of green to red, because that's what I have too when I do that.
Why not put the next higher TF -HAC on the same chart - possible?
- #199
- Feb 11, 2016 4:49pm Feb 11, 2016 4:49pm
{quote} Right! I have been sleeping there and measured on the same TF
No worries! It's so easy to make mistakes.But yeah, I would like to look into that. I'm not sure how to do it or if it would slow the computer too much if multi-TFs are being used on the same chart with calculations like those. Maybe if FerruFX comes around we can ask him.
- #200
- Feb 12, 2016 1:28am Feb 12, 2016 1:28am
USDJPY - X Levels
I thought this was a nice illustration of how the x levels stack onto each other and is worthy of note.
First of all, they did not occur in rapid succession and as we've seen several times before, this generally indicates a choppy or consolidating situation in the offing. Second, I want you to see that there's a definite relationship between time frames, which is why it's beneficial to utilize more than just one. Third, there was a sizable bounce from those levels, being all clustered together like that.
I thought this was a nice illustration of how the x levels stack onto each other and is worthy of note.
First of all, they did not occur in rapid succession and as we've seen several times before, this generally indicates a choppy or consolidating situation in the offing. Second, I want you to see that there's a definite relationship between time frames, which is why it's beneficial to utilize more than just one. Third, there was a sizable bounce from those levels, being all clustered together like that.