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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #16,201
  • Edited Feb 10, 2016 1:06am Feb 9, 2016 10:59pm | Edited Feb 10, 2016 1:06am
Good evening everybody.

EURUSD - 15M

Question: Did I label the swing in the circle correctly or is it just all one leg. I might of mixed up short term and long term order flow and structure analysis?

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Edit:
Mah... decided to make it one leg because structurally it needed to break the NSH. Left my original post as a teaching tool for criticism.

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  • #16,202
  • Edited 2:31am Feb 10, 2016 2:12am | Edited 2:31am
Quoting Mr_Burns
{quote} May I ask why you put the stop where you put it?
Hi Mr. Burns

Thanks for asking. Let me know what you think.

Edit-

Also, thought I should mention. When I see my trade is going red and in short term the order flow is going against me, I bring my TP to BE. I hate miracles Lol !!
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  • #16,203
  • Feb 10, 2016 3:49am Feb 10, 2016 3:49am
Hi,

i am following the the thread watch all the videos twice. The information is nice thanks fro the MR. PIP who has open my eyes and give me vision to see the market differently with accuracy of more than 70%. i am trading demo ATM on mt 4.

but recently downloaded the fxcm trade station to learn exactly as MR. PIP is teaching here. i am having problem to see the tick chart as different to some of the senior members or posting here.

i am attaching the chart could any body help me to sort this out how can i get the exact tick chart as MR. PIP and other guys have. So i can learn properly and become a participant of sharing my charts here in the thread.

thanks.

MRMALIK1
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MRMALIK1
  • #16,204
  • Feb 10, 2016 5:22am Feb 10, 2016 5:22am
Goodmorning everybody,
Just a confirmation on the correct drawing of the swings in order to find the momentum properly.
We have learned
1)that we pay attention on the wicks, to make our order flow analysis.
2)we start our line from the left higher high(the highest point that the price reached) and finish to the right lower low (if we have a down trend)

So on this chart the line should start from the purple arrow(ok this is clear since it happens to be also the more left candle) to the green arrow(that has reached the lower price)??Even if there is another candle to the right?

like i said i think the answer is yes but i want that extra feedback from the master
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learn more , earn more
  • #16,205
  • Feb 10, 2016 5:39am Feb 10, 2016 5:39am
Quoting mrmalik1
Hi, i am following the the thread watch all the videos twice. The information is nice thanks fro the MR. PIP who has open my eyes and give me vision to see the market differently with accuracy of more than 70%. i am trading demo ATM on mt 4. but recently downloaded the fxcm trade station to learn exactly as MR. PIP is teaching here. i am having problem to see the tick chart as different to some of the senior members or posting here. i am attaching the chart could any body help me to sort this out how can i get the exact tick chart as MR. PIP and...
Hello there

Use 15 min candle charts, that's what I am using.

Regards
Aj1
  • #16,206
  • Feb 10, 2016 5:51am Feb 10, 2016 5:51am
Hi everyone.

Mr. Pip i have a quick question....

I noticed that "zooming" in and out the chart changes a bit my perception os the price swings. In the charts i have posted i can see about one day back in the 15m chart, if i zoom out i can see two or three.

My question is, does it really matter how far back i can see on the chart as long as i can find some clear highs and lows and dont change the timeframe?

Asmodai
  • #16,207
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:35am Feb 10, 2016 6:35am
Quoting Aj1
{quote} Hello there Use 15 min candle charts, that's what I am using. Regards Aj1
thanks Aj1. that's what i am using at the moment.

thanks once again
MRMALIK1
  • #16,208
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:21am Feb 10, 2016 7:21am
1st trade- BE
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  • #16,209
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:51am Feb 10, 2016 7:51am
Good Morning Traders

People are still unsure about Short Term Order Flow.

From the chart below, we see price has made a NSH. Our expectation is for a HL, followed by a NSH.

Now as long as price remains in the shaded area, that is short term order flow.
Price broke the white dotted line, short term order flow. That means on the short term order flow you would be expecting a LH, followed by a NSL.
Now the long yellow line. That is the line in the sand, as far as the bulls are concerned, if they want to take price higher, they have to come in there.
And they didn't, so price has spoken. I want to go lower.
Bulls are too weak to take price any higher.

Use that to help you, with your decision making.
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  • #16,210
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:53am Feb 10, 2016 7:53am
Right Chart
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  • #16,211
  • Feb 10, 2016 8:03am Feb 10, 2016 8:03am
I'm looking at the EU chart right now and a bit puzzled as how to continue labeling the swings. I'll wait a bit more before posting another chart.

Asmodai
  • #16,212
  • Feb 10, 2016 8:05am Feb 10, 2016 8:05am
Quoting Aj1
Good Morning Traders People are still unsure about Short Term Order Flow. From the chart below, we see price has made a NSH. Our expectation is for a HL, followed by a NSH. Now as long as price remains in the shaded area, that is short term order flow. Price broke the white dotted line, short term order flow. That means on the short term order flow you would be expecting a LH, followed by a NSL. Now the long yellow line. That is the line in the sand, as far as the bulls are concerned, if they want to take price higher, they have to come in there....
Very nice and representative.Helped me to clarify more the structure-order flow analysis that i m practicing.
thanx
learn more , earn more
  • #16,213
  • Feb 10, 2016 8:20am Feb 10, 2016 8:20am
Hello Traders,

Got here late this morning will catch up later today.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,214
  • Feb 10, 2016 8:38am Feb 10, 2016 8:38am
Quoting hovedguy
{quote} Hi Mr. Burns Thanks for asking. Let me know what you think. Edit- Also, thought I should mention. When I see my trade is going red and in short term the order flow is going against me, I bring my TP to BE. I hate miracles Lol !! {image}
Thanks for the answer. I think you is correct with your analysis, maybe not so much an increase in momentum but increasing projection and decreasing depth speaks for a shallow/mid correction. However price could still correct deeper and still make a NSH, in fact until we see price close below our HL we should expect a NSH. My SL would be below the HL. The problem then is if we can get at least a 1:1 risk/reward and if our money management strategy allows that amount of risk. I haven't backtested how often expected shallow corrections play out and if your strategy is lucrative/more lucrative than SL below HL. If it is at least as good you found a way to avoid a lot of risk which always is nice. I like to make clear rules regarding to avoid emotions getting the better of me.
Rise and rise again until lambs become lions
  • #16,215
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:05am Feb 10, 2016 9:05am
Quoting Mr_Burns
{quote} Thanks for the answer. I think you is correct with your analysis, maybe not so much an increase in momentum but increasing projection and decreasing depth speaks for a shallow/mid correction. However price could still correct deeper and still make a NSH, in fact until we see price close below our HL we should expect a NSH. My SL would be below the HL. The problem then is if we can get at least a 1:1 risk/reward and if our money management strategy allows that amount of risk. I haven't backtested how often expected shallow corrections play...
Hi Mr. Burns and hovedguy,

I think you are making some interesting points. Hope you don't mind if I join the conversation because the matter of the stop loss is something I've been thinking about a lot too. I'm really looking forward to Mr. Pip's week on trade management for that reason!

For my part, I've often noticed potential trades that would seem to have a high probability of working out based on orderflow and structure, but that would not offer a great risk to reward ratio if you used the previous main HL (or LH) for stop placement. Sometimes a more "artful" approach seems called for, for instance placing a stop above the high or low of the previous candle (if price is at a likely turning point) or just below or above an area of shorter term structure. Or if there is a cluster of long wick rejections near by, just above or below them.

I think this would be based more on a complex sense of situational awareness than emotion. I don't think evaluating each situation for itself is the same as trading based on emotion, but on the other hand, I don't know how one would quantify it into a set of rules. Perhaps my thinking on the topic is still a bit fuzzy!

Good thoughts and I hope this is not straying to far from the topic at hand. I will shut up now.
  • #16,216
  • Edited 10:34am Feb 10, 2016 10:02am | Edited 10:34am
Here's a screenshot of a trade I made today. It looked like there was a 'complex correction' in a down movement, which then broke back to the downside. If you look at the blue boxes, those were significant bear candles. Since the bulls looked to have a harder time in raising price than the bears was having in lowering it, I felt confident of my entry that it was time for another big move to the down side. I didn't fully implement all of the trainings, drawing the projection and depth on the chart, but I did try to take it into consideration. What I saw was that inside this complex correction there was a small up trend, making NSHs. But then when the last NSH failed (marked with a red line), it broke out of the complex correction and into the longer term downtrend to make a NSL. It was off of the correction from the first NSL that I took a Sell trade. I'm still on a broker that uses MetaTrader, so I am using a demo account to look at the 233 tick charts, and finding them to be a nicer and smoother alternative to either the 5min or 15min charts. So, I used this demo account to find my entry, and then made the trade over in my live account. I do like the drawing tools of NinjaTrader way better as well. :-) I drew my actual trade in here as well. The red down arrow was my entry. The red line above it was my stop loss. I made 2 identical trades each at half my total desired trade risk (i.e. 2 trades at .50, totaling 1.00 lots). The Take profit of the first trade was to be able to take my 2nd trade to a break even point. Which I did. And then I rode the 2nd trade to my 2nd take profit. As you can see, price continued on for a while, so I could have kept a trailing stop on it, but my daily profit target was hit, and I was satisfied. (TP1 was a 1:1 on reward:risk, and TP2 was a 2:1 on reward:risk).

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Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #16,217
  • Edited 10:41am Feb 10, 2016 10:25am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting Asmodai
Hi everyone. Mr. Pip i have a quick question.... I noticed that "zooming" in and out the chart changes a bit my perception os the price swings. In the charts i have posted i can see about one day back in the 15m chart, if i zoom out i can see two or three. My question is, does it really matter how far back i can see on the chart as long as i can find some clear highs and lows and dont change the timeframe? Asmodai
a helpful trick I dont know if it matters or not but what I do is consolidate my chart or zoom out to the max just to give me a much clearer picture of the chart and also locate those clear swings and the overall corrections.
  • #16,218
  • Feb 10, 2016 10:43am Feb 10, 2016 10:43am
Quoting Mr_Burns
{quote} Thanks for the answer. I think you is correct with your analysis, maybe not so much an increase in momentum but increasing projection and decreasing depth speaks for a shallow/mid correction. However price could still correct deeper and still make a NSH, in fact until we see price close below our HL we should expect a NSH. My SL would be below the HL. The problem then is if we can get at least a 1:1 risk/reward and if our money management strategy allows that amount of risk. I haven't backtested how often expected shallow corrections play...
I am still experimenting, nothing is rock solid yet. Adjusting SL-TP at the middle of a trade can be called emotional, agree. Experts say once you're in the trade, don't change your mind. Hope to learn more form Mr. Pip's trade management rules once they are out.

I think what I will stick to is not to have a static TP, I always trail
  • #16,219
  • Feb 10, 2016 10:50am Feb 10, 2016 10:50am
Quoting beepbop2015
{quote} Hi Mr. Burns and hovedguy, I think you are making some interesting points. Hope you don't mind if I join the conversation because the matter of the stop loss is something I've been thinking about a lot too. I'm really looking forward to Mr. Pip's week on trade management for that reason! For my part, I've often noticed potential trades that would seem to have a high probability of working out based on orderflow and structure, but that would not offer a great risk to reward ratio if you used the previous main HL (or LH) for stop placement....
Hey Beepbop, let me put little more spice in it.

Mr. Pip says trade what you see, we are seeing weakening of the strength in terms of short term order flow
  • #16,220
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:56pm Feb 10, 2016 1:56pm
Alright, uploading today's trades.... comments are most welcome.

Also looking forward to the upcoming video
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