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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #138,501
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:50pm Feb 8, 2016 2:50pm
Quoting TrendyRanger
GBPUSD H1. Is this a valid pin bar for long? {image}
Hi TR. You were trading into some strong bearish bars/selling pressure here, plus some congestion to the left, so no trade for me. You could've made some pips, but not a good habit to trade against such strong pressure. Nice Pbar though.

Great stuff Bill. You are raawkin it! Can I short gold now? lol.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,502
  • Edited 11:43pm Feb 8, 2016 5:25pm | Edited 11:43pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Nice Pbar though. Great stuff Bill. You are raawkin it! Can I short gold now? lol.
Thanks GB. Umm, "raawkin it"? - is that a Muso term. If it is, i will have to learn the lingo before i finish my Drums apprenticeship!
And shorting Gold? I know you're only mucking around but umm, NO! lol. Well not yet at least as it has reached the wide-ranging ppz and it's waaaay to confusing as to where price is going.
Have a good one buddy.

First trade of the day. 2day BEOB + trend continuation PB with a PPZ AND BRN of 0.70000 at my back. Price has hit first trouble area (blue line) so have moved to BE. If i had seen the 2day bar yesterday i would have placed a sell order on the retrace (the PB) - having said that i'm most grateful for the trade i'm in now.
Jim has really highlighted to me in his blog and tutorials how wonderful PPZ's are for your trading. I concur Jim, thank you.
Bill

Update: When price got near 0.6900 i tightened my trailing stop - and then got stopped out (see chart below for moment before impact). Why i thought price would move seamlessly through a PPZ and the BRN to my original TP was GREED. Lesson learned...
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  • #138,503
  • Feb 8, 2016 7:54pm Feb 8, 2016 7:54pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Hi TR. You were trading into some strong bearish bars/selling pressure here, plus some congestion to the left, so no trade for me. You could've made some pips, but not a good habit to trade against such strong pressure. Nice Pbar though.
Thank you Guitarbloke. It is important to know what works as well as what doesn't.
  • #138,504
  • Feb 8, 2016 7:55pm Feb 8, 2016 7:55pm
So i think the EUR/GBP has reached an historically important area/PPZ.
Let price action lead the way...
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  • #138,505
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:26pm Feb 8, 2016 11:26pm
Quoting Bill618
{quote} Hey there G-man. Yes 4 trades and i have woken up just now to see they all went to TP. Happy days. As for Gold, the main signal was the very BIG engulfing 8h BUOB (2 x 4h combined). The bar preceeding this was a decent size BEOB but the 8h then said "uh uh my friend, we ain't going down anytime soon, just up and away!". The 8h is HUGE compared to all the bars around. Bill
Cool. Understood and thanks also to GuitarB for pointing this out.
  • #138,506
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:37pm Feb 8, 2016 11:37pm
Quoting Grousman
{quote} Good stuff Gbloke GBP JPY Picking up speed too . Manually managing this. Some off at 168.10 and will set TP at 167.70 and move SL to BE as soon as I head out shortly. Outside bar that sliced through a BRN. {image}
More profit at 167.70 Just keeps going. Moved SL down again. Lets see what it does at 165. A lot of yen strength at the moment.
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  • #138,507
  • Edited 7:13pm Feb 9, 2016 12:17am | Edited 7:13pm
@G-man, nice trade!


Battle of the giants.

PPZ versus steep current trend.

And the winner is..........

PPZ will win the first bout as price will bounce to BRN of 1.0000 (which is also around the middle of the box).

Disclaimer: I haven't got a CLUE if this will happen! Just my prediction. Just tryin' to predict price. Just havin' fun.
Now that i have put this out there, price will obviously break violently south

Update: Looks like the trend is going to win!
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  • #138,508
  • Edited 3:59am Feb 9, 2016 12:49am | Edited 3:59am
Quoting Bill618
{quote} The trend is your friend.
Go with the flow.
If you piss into the wind you will get piss on you.
It's much easier to row a boat with the current.
Follow the others otherwise you will be exposed and left alone - i don't want to be alone.

This is why i struggle with PB's because they by nature almost always go against trend.
A repost to the incredibly good words! Thanks Bill
  • #138,509
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:52am Feb 9, 2016 12:52am
Quoting Guitarbloke
Usd/jpy h1. Wipg? {image} Update: 115.84 hit then reversed. {image}
strictly against the huge trend
  • #138,510
  • Feb 9, 2016 2:17am Feb 9, 2016 2:17am
Quoting Kershey
It took me 1 year following this thread, to realize that this method has marginally to do with trading, its a PRODUCT. A commercial product sold to a market in order to make a profit.
Hey Kerhey.

Following a thread / system is a great thing. You stuck to the system / method. That's already good because losers usually give up on an idea in 2weeks-2months...

j16 is simply technical analysis. Does it suck? No. Is this type of technique really for you? Maybe not.

When learning a method / system many ppl don't really consider the psychological aspects. And those are far more important than the "pinbar in traffic".
Let's assume that I have a 100k account. I trade a high RR way, I have strings of losses of 3-5 trades but then I make 5-10RR. Let's analyze this a bit. This means that
- I can have strings of losses of 3-7 anywhere
- Then I have to hold the winner for ca 10RR.
- I lose lets say 1,5k during the losing steak, but then I win 3k, and im up for 1,5k at the end of the week. Im happy with it.

When other traders start doing this strategy they won't notice these stuff. They will start trading it with MUCH HIGHER RISK, just to make reasonable profit with it in short time. But I can guarantee you - there is no strategy that turns a 100usd account into 100k in a year or in 5 years... Also these "followers" feel sick when they have to endure these 3-7 strings of losses. And then finally when the winner comes, they cut it at 1-2RR instead of letting it run for 7-12RR+. And then the "system sux"

j16 is selling belief. That's it. He sells the belief that you can make money with this strategy. That's what every retail trader does.

I have a friend who trades a single EMA. (You wouldnt believe but he is profitable...) Talking with him I realized that it doesn't matter wich EMA you use. It makes a difference in your number of trades and thus you have to modify the money management. But 34 is not going to be better than 40. IT's just different.
If you now go to trade Supply/Demand and if you think that's better or worse you are wrong. It's a bit different. There you have maybe more entries, since you enter at a zone instead of a S/R level, but then you have to endure higher number of strings of losses --> you have to take down on the position sizing...

If i were you I would sit down, and write down the psychological aspects.
Can I endure 2-3 losses. Or 3-5. Or even 5-8.
Can I hold for 5RR+? 8RR+?
Can I hold a floating 5RR just to see it come back and take me out at 1RR and not feeling regret...
These are the type of questions that define you as a trader. This is what you have to work on.... Psychology > Moneymanagement > Extiting a trade > Entering a trade...

Cheers
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #138,511
  • Feb 9, 2016 4:39am Feb 9, 2016 4:39am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Hey Kerhey. Following a thread / system is a great thing. You stuck to the system / method. That's already good because losers usually give up on an idea in 2weeks-2months... j16 is simply technical analysis. Does it suck? No. Is this type of technique really for you? Maybe not. When learning a method / system many ppl don't really consider the psychological aspects. And those are far more important than the "pinbar in traffic". Let's assume that I have a 100k account. I trade a high RR way, I have strings of losses of 3-5 trades but then...
Trading is 95% psychology and 5% trading skill / system.
  • #138,512
  • Edited 3:11pm Feb 9, 2016 4:43am | Edited 3:11pm
Thanks Poinson

2nd and last trade for the day. Usd/Cad D1 Beob with ppz and 1.4000 at my back.
First trouble area is 1.39000 but i'm aiming for the 1.38000 area.
Off to bed shortly, have a great day/night

Update: Trailing stop hit for small profit. Should have taken (nice) profit at 1.39000. WIPG!!
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  • #138,513
  • Feb 10, 2016 8:27am Feb 10, 2016 8:27am
great location to watch for PA. Beautiful TL and previous major swing point

Preference is PA long for a breakout but bears remain in control until then. Another great way is watching for a false breakout here too
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  • #138,514
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:30am Feb 10, 2016 9:30am
Quoting mbqb11
great location to watch for PA. Beautiful TL and previous major swing point Preference is PA long for a breakout but bears remain in control until then. Another great way is watching for a false breakout here too {image}
we got that pre-emptive breakout bar I was looking for but the breakout area did not hold so I cut out for a 1/3 bar loss. I'll watch for that fake breakout scenario if we close strong bearish
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  • #138,515
  • Edited 10:20am Feb 10, 2016 10:06am | Edited 10:20am
Mike was this a pre-emptive breakout bar? have you considered to short this pair after this bar?

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  • #138,516
  • Feb 10, 2016 10:33am Feb 10, 2016 10:33am
Quoting florinellz
Mike was this a pre-emptive breakout bar? have you considered to short this pair after this bar? {image}
Hey Florinellz

Yep a bunch of people in the forum took that one and man did it take off! I ended up passing on it, but it sure was the right application of pre-emptive breakouts

Well done

Mike
  • #138,517
  • Feb 10, 2016 6:15pm Feb 10, 2016 6:15pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} we got that pre-emptive breakout bar I was looking for but the breakout area did not hold so I cut out for a 1/3 bar loss. I'll watch for that fake breakout scenario if we close strong bearish {image}
i think now your thought to breakout is valid isn't ?
Investing is SIMPLE but NOT EASY
  • #138,518
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:39pm Feb 10, 2016 7:39pm
AUD/CAD moved up eventually! 8hr BUOVB off 0.98000 too.

XAU/USD H1 PB. Call me late, but onboard this freight train. Happy to have 100 pips profit locked in, but looking to TP at Weekly PPZ around 1231.00 area.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,519
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:43pm Feb 10, 2016 7:43pm
Been a bit quiet the last day (for me at least).

2 trades entered a few hours ago. Double exposure to the CAD!!
CAD/SGD & CAD/JPY - both trades preeeety much identical, BEOB's with PPZ's and RN's at my back (SGD has the 1.0000 BRN in fact). SGD trade has more 'trouble areas' ahead (blue lines) so i will play around with my TP when/if the time comes.
It's early days so we will see how they go
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  • #138,520
  • Feb 10, 2016 7:54pm Feb 10, 2016 7:54pm
Quoting Moly_Cam5
{quote} i think now your thought to breakout is valid isn't ?
Hey Moly

I got nicked out just a bit before that blast off occurred. It happens. So my story was correct which is nice but the bad part is I lost some money. The true key though is cutting the loss. I don't remember my last full bar loss. So instead of leaving myself open for a 3% ding which HURTS I took just over a 1% loss and i'm much more comfortable making that up. Some might have given it a bit more room and caught the bigger move which people in the group said they did(a few)

Such is trading

If you have more questions let me know!
Mike
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