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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #16,161
  • Feb 8, 2016 9:11pm Feb 8, 2016 9:11pm
Awesome! I have two of his books.
  • #16,162
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:58pm Feb 8, 2016 10:58pm
Euro 15, achieved NSH. But momentum is weak, coming from deep correction, 0 projection. Expectation is for NSH. But it is very very weak.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,163
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:58am Feb 9, 2016 12:58am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Excellent glad to hear that!
Mr.Pip, it is really exciting. Attached is my yesterday buy trade. For the first time I had this kind of trade, from the beginning till the end, not by chance, by knowing this. Very good. Previously I was thinking that price moves in chaotic format, but now it is different.
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  • #16,164
  • Feb 9, 2016 2:44am Feb 9, 2016 2:44am
sorry, i don't have so much time to trade and comment here. But saw Damian videos and they are extremely important and helpful to be successful in this business. I've been teaching in University for about 5 years, but I wouldn't be able to give a better lesson than what Damian did, and teach the structure and order flow better than Damian even if I knew these concepts the way Damian does. My point is that he is a very good teacher and he doesn't leave place for confusion in his lectures.

here is my analysis for the moment. Things could change during the rest of the day, but for now, I'm doing what Damian suggests; "when you see market moving from a place to another, don't just look...be efficient"
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  • #16,165
  • Edited 6:04am Feb 9, 2016 3:54am | Edited 6:04am
Good morning everyone.

EU 15m..... Expecting a moderate pullback to form a LH and then a NSL or a pull back all the way to the previous NSH.

Edit.... just noticed i had mislabeled some points in my chart... will post an updated one.

Asmodai
  • #16,166
  • Feb 9, 2016 4:47am Feb 9, 2016 4:47am
Quoting ujku80
sorry, i don't have so much time to trade and comment here. But saw Damian videos and they are extremely important and helpful to be successful in this business. I've been teaching in University for about 5 years, but I wouldn't be able to give a better lesson than what Damian did, and teach the structure and order flow better than Damian even if I knew these concepts the way Damian does. My point is that he is a very good teacher and he doesn't leave place for confusion in his lectures. here is my analysis for the moment. Things could change during...

No offense,if i may comment your chart ujku80,,
why are you saying that ''everything in the circle can be considered a complex pullback and market can still make a NSH''?meaning that since market has broken the recent HL why you expect your first LOW to be broken to change your sentiment to the downside?
I 'm not trying to correct anything, i m just asking
learn more , earn more
  • #16,167
  • Feb 9, 2016 5:13am Feb 9, 2016 5:13am
Good Morning Traders

Eur 5 Min


On 5 min chart Eur continued in line with expectations, creating NSH followed by HL, on the climb higher we can see a decrease in momentum, to the highest NSH.

In terms of depth and projection, about the same.

Expectation was for a deep correction.

On the way down we see increase in momentum.

Depth increasing, this would signify weakness.

Decrease in Projection this too signifying weakness.

But I certainly did not EXPECT such a violent reaction to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR 5 min.PNG Size: 65 KB
  • #16,168
  • Feb 9, 2016 6:09am Feb 9, 2016 6:09am
Here is the updated chart...

Expecting a retest followed by a HL and a NSH.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15.png Size: 49 KB



Asmodai
  • #16,169
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:04am Feb 9, 2016 7:04am
Quoting evocpr19
Dear Mr. Pip, i have a question in order to know if I get it right. Please apologise that I use a 5min chart of EUR/USD, but it was actually the chart which I confronted when trading. Unfortunately, I remembered your sentence to late that we cannot expect a new NSL (Hence in order to remember I draw a "warning" triangle). I wanted to sell at A Level (box)- I paid the fine. Now to the chart reading: From NSH to NSL (points 1 to NSL), we see a steep harmonic and a short depth (the correction). From that we expect after point "2" a NSL. After the NSL,...
Okay lets address your questions:

Quote
1: could we expect that the "old" NSL level will be re-tested? After the price came never below the red line (HL; "3"), we can go long for seeking a NSH (expectation is changed).

Yes, in fact the expectation would be for a deep correction into a HL or a retest of the low assessing the momentum and depth of the previous swings will help you determine which is most likely. You could look for long opportunities however I would wait for the deep correction to take place first.

Quote
2: Is this correct?

I'm assuming you mean you chart illustrations? Yes they are correct but you mislabeled one but I'm sure it was not that you thought it was a HL just a mistake in labeling.

Quote
3: Would you trade short from point "4" (Double top)? Now we are expecting a HL.

No, I would not have gone short there as I would have been against the strength of the market. Price really accelerated into that NSH and the expectation was for a shallow correction.

Quote
4: Would you trade from the HL (double bottom) ? After the HL we expect a NSH and then a new HL.

Yes, that's where I would be looking for longs as this would align me with the strength of the market and with the expectations you point out.

Quote
5: I was expecting an HL in the box area ("7"), since the retracement could have the same depth as the previous and this area defines a 23.6 to 38.2 (61.8 if fibo is placed on last main swing) retracement (still bullish) + structure. Is my theoretical expectation right?

Impressive! Way to fine confluence and use some harmonics to help you assess an area of interests. Your theoretical expectation is realistic and supported confluence and harmonics.

Quote
6: the momentum appears to diminish. Hence it is likely that our expectation of getting a new NSH will fail. Right? Thank you in advance for your answer.

Not necessarily, just because the momentum diminishes some doesn't mean we need to expect failure. You could expect a deeper correction and assess the other two element that we do to assess strength and weakness(Projection and Depth). Weakness is just that weakness. It adds the suggestion that a NSH may be weaker then the last. I would only expect the expectation to fail is there are significant changes in the weakening process and you really don't have that here. If I did have that I would be on the sidelines or manage any trades I would take aggressively.

Thank you for the questions I hope I addressed them to you understanding.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,170
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:07am Feb 9, 2016 7:07am
Eur 5 min

From the NSH, we have a deep correction.

Expectation is for a weak NSH. But the momentum is good, see how it goes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,171
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:22am Feb 9, 2016 7:22am
Quoting GnG
Hi !! Here is my chart with my order flow analysis . There are also some questions on the chart. Please have a look, and let me know what do you think about my swings (if i picked up the right ones) and if i draw the depths and the projection according to our rules p.s. don't forget to answer my questions {image}
Hello GnG,

Next time please write you questions in the post. It makes it easier on me to address them but here we go.

Fluctuations in momentum are consistent with a weakening. Don't drive youself crazy with stronger or weaker instead ask yourself "What does this mean?". Your answer should be the expectation should be decrease projection on the expectation. That was not the first projection as price had already made a NSH and the second one achieved less projection. You could have assessed them in your analysis. Your expectation for the market to move lower is a very real possibility. I would expect a complex correction and short term Order Flow to achieve a NSL. and look for longs at an area of deeper structure once there is weakness in the short term order flow.

Comparing the depth and projection can be done visually but percentage works best use Fibonacci retracements and extensions to achieve this.

I think I got them, if I missed one post it and I will answer it.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,172
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:24am Feb 9, 2016 7:24am
Quoting beepbop2015
Practicing structure and short term order flow analysis on EUR/USD. {image}
Very nice.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,173
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:25am Feb 9, 2016 7:25am
Quoting GetThatPip
​Lucky you Mr pip! I actually read both Mr Carney s books on harmonics and learned quite lot he is indeed a wealth of information,it will be an honor to meet both of you guys some days.Anyways,lets get back to topic, my question for you is do you take into consideration the length of the swing to assess the strength or the weakness of the market? Thanks again
Absolutely, this is what momentum points out.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,174
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:27am Feb 9, 2016 7:27am
Quoting paren
Euro 15, achieved NSH. But momentum is weak, coming from deep correction, 0 projection. Expectation is for NSH. But it is very very weak. {image}
Nice work
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,175
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:29am Feb 9, 2016 7:29am
Quoting paren
{quote} Mr.Pip, it is really exciting. Attached is my yesterday buy trade. For the first time I had this kind of trade, from the beginning till the end, not by chance, by knowing this. Very good. Previously I was thinking that price moves in chaotic format, but now it is different. {image}
Awesome! I'm glad I was able to help you see the reality of what the market really is and how it can be forecast ed with accuracy.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,176
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:31am Feb 9, 2016 7:31am
Hi Mr. Pip

Thank you for all the support and contribution you're making in educating us Haven't seen anybody doing like this before. Hats off to you !!

Well, I have a question. In the picture below, the red markers are the potential entry opportunities. In first 2 entries (from left) the momentum were higher than the respective previous ones and we see clear winner. 3rd one, momentum was less and we can see the weakness in strength though the projection and depth criteria were fulfilled. Do we need to give any special attention/weightage to the momentum?

In the last trade short time HH's were made, hence I took it out at BE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 62 KB
  • #16,177
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:35am Feb 9, 2016 7:35am
Quoting ujku80
sorry, i don't have so much time to trade and comment here. But saw Damian videos and they are extremely important and helpful to be successful in this business. I've been teaching in University for about 5 years, but I wouldn't be able to give a better lesson than what Damian did, and teach the structure and order flow better than Damian even if I knew these concepts the way Damian does. My point is that he is a very good teacher and he doesn't leave place for confusion in his lectures. here is my analysis for the moment. Things could change during...
Thank you for the amazing compliment! I'm glad to see you finding efficiency in your trading. If you look on your chart Price did make a NSL and is not in a complex correction in your circle. Can you tell me why I say this? It's also great that you got to a BE on your trade and Agree with you targeted expectation. The only thing that is slightly of is you Structure Analysis.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,178
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:37am Feb 9, 2016 7:37am
Quoting GnG
{quote} No offense,if i may comment your chart ujku80,, why are you saying that ''everything in the circle can be considered a complex pullback and market can still make a NSH''?meaning that since market has broken the recent HL why you expect your first LOW to be broken to change your sentiment to the downside? I 'm not trying to correct anything, i m just asking
Now we are talking great observation. We are really picking this up nicely!!!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,179
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:40am Feb 9, 2016 7:40am
Quoting Aj1
Good Morning Traders Eur 5 Min On 5 min chart Eur continued in line with expectations, creating NSH followed by HL, on the climb higher we can see a decrease in momentum, to the highest NSH. In terms of depth and projection, about the same. Expectation was for a deep correction. On the way down we see increase in momentum. Depth increasing, this would signify weakness. Decrease in Projection this too signifying weakness. But I certainly did not EXPECT such a violent reaction to the upside. {image}
You can see the depth of the corrections increasing significantly for the previous and the momentum of the correction is also increased projection also decreased substantially. The bulls really applied the brakes to the bears.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #16,180
  • Feb 9, 2016 7:48am Feb 9, 2016 7:48am
Quoting hovedguy
Hi Mr. Pip Thank you for all the support and contribution you're making in educating us Haven't seen anybody doing like this before. Hats off to you !! Well, I have a question. In the picture below, the red markers are the potential entry opportunities. In first 2 entries (from left) the momentum were higher than the respective previous ones and we see clear winner. 3rd one, momentum was less and we can see the weakness in strength though the projection and depth criteria were fulfilled. Do we need to give any special attention/weightage...
Weakness means your expectations are weakening and you need to be more selective with trading opportunities or manage you trades more aggressively. I don't place more importance on one vs another 3 out of 3, great we are strong, 2 out of 3 ok starting to weaken slightly this is where we will start to see some fluctuation in projection, momentum and depth. 1 out of 3 strong weakness this move will move move much farther. Does this help?
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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