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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #121
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:39am Feb 9, 2016 3:39am
Quoting trader34
Hi PA, General question here: given that the markets seem a little unstable, USD seems to be mixed against it's major pairs, massive yen appreciation yesterday, and Nikkei dropping 5% today...do you consider that type of info when looking at AUD? AUD seems to be finding support at 0.70 area, but given the current seemingly unusual correlation between the major crosses, I tend to avoid trading on what I would consider normal PA. Just wondering how you process things. Thanks.
It's not a big factor in my decisions,but definitely something worth noting. The main the for me is price action. Example, if I get a nice pin bar or railroad tracks at a s/r area for a short and price goes up instead...then I know something isn't right in the market and I stay out.
  • #122
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:53am Feb 9, 2016 3:53am
on a side note, we are at an interesting position on A/U right now: on one hand the short term trend is down and we had a bearish engulfing 1hr candle making the odds in favore of shorts. However the risk is high because you'd be selling at the lows of the day and near the .7020-30 area that's been supporting the Aussie for over 8hrs now.

Min the other hand you could try a long because of the support level here and your risk would be low(small stop loss), but the odds are more in favor of shorts.

This is where self discipline really comes into play. Trade Smart!
  • #123
  • Feb 9, 2016 4:12am Feb 9, 2016 4:12am
just more thoughts that run through my head...after the 1hr bearish engulfing candle we now have a bullish 1hr pin bar candle that closed,yet again, above .7030(price really isn't following through on selling below .7030). I would lean towards longs since it's less risk, but to but safe I'll just sit out with the two conflicting candlesticks.
  • #124
  • Feb 9, 2016 5:20am Feb 9, 2016 5:20am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} It's not a big factor in my decisions,but definitely something worth noting. The main the for me is price action. Example, if I get a nice pin bar or railroad tracks at a s/r area for a short and price goes up instead...then I know something isn't right in the market and I stay out.

Thanks for the response.

At them moment the PA on AU just seems ugly. No direction.
I'll likely take the sidelines on this pair until a stronger move shows itself.
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #125
  • Feb 9, 2016 5:49am Feb 9, 2016 5:49am
Hmm looks like 0.7090 may be the highest point we could see near term for now, if we see 0.7015 and lower we might push down towards 0.6990, this pair is a slow mover.
Wish I held out on my short from 0.7225
  • #126
  • Feb 9, 2016 8:07am Feb 9, 2016 8:07am
Quoting Don96
Hmm looks like 0.7090 may be the highest point we could see near term for now, if we see 0.7015 and lower we might push down towards 0.6990, this pair is a slow mover. Wish I held out on my short from 0.7225
No need for negative thoughts my friend, I'm sure you made pips on your short. Be happy for that and not what you missed. There will be more opportunities.
  • #127
  • Feb 9, 2016 4:54pm Feb 9, 2016 4:54pm
Quoting Don96
Hmm looks like 0.7090 may be the highest point we could see near term for now, if we see 0.7015 and lower we might push down towards 0.6990, this pair is a slow mover. Wish I held out on my short from 0.7225
I agree with PA's advice Don, focus on the pips you got not what you missed as there will always be pips missed so you'd drive yourself nuts if try chasing them all. Besides, price does different things in different situations so what works once won't work next time. The answer - consistent profits not chasing every pip. I had 6 shorts on the way up from 7128 to 7228 and 7228 was the one I held open for longest with initial target around 7043 to 7050 but I wasn't happy with price action earlier and after it had been to 7103 closed it at 7092. Missed over 100 pips to the later bottom but have to be happy with the 136 pip I got on that position and to lesser extent the 126 pip I made on the other 5 positions. More importantly (at least on the other 5) I followed my plan. Maybe the plan needs some tweaking but that's part of the trading journey.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #128
  • Feb 10, 2016 2:42am Feb 10, 2016 2:42am
Quoting dab
{quote} I agree with PA's advice Don, focus on the pips you got not what you missed as there will always be pips missed so you'd drive yourself nuts if try chasing them all. Besides, price does different things in different situations so what works once won't work next time. The answer - consistent profits not chasing every pip. I had 6 shorts on the way up from 7128 to 7228 and 7228 was the one I held open for longest with initial target around 7043 to 7050 but I wasn't happy with price action earlier and after it had been to 7103 closed it at...
​
I'm not bothered about it too much, its just I didn't have the balls to go with my plan at the time...
  • #129
  • Feb 10, 2016 8:24am Feb 10, 2016 8:24am
An example of a trade that just happened. If you had the patience to wait for this to set up, it was an easy trade!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproM15 007.png Size: 151 KB
  • #130
  • Feb 10, 2016 8:43am Feb 10, 2016 8:43am
Here's the 1hr chart I wanted to post a couple days ago but didn't have my computer available. There's a lot going on this chart so bare with me:

1) On Feb. 8/9 price came down to retest the Feb. 3rd lows and stalled at .7020(price kept closing above .7030). After hours of this, 1hr bullish pin bars, and RSI divergence...thought it would be good for longs. It was, good for at least 30pips.

2) Then a Bearish engulfing candle formed followed by a small bullish 1hr pin bar again. 2 conflicting signals...not to mention, I didn't really want to short at the lows of the day and I didn't really want to go long as price was just rejected under the 50ema and came right back down. So I stayed out.

3) Couple candles later there were bearish rail road track candles(I didn't trade it)...so you had a Bearish engulfing candle and now a set of bearish railroad track candles(again, I don't like the risk of shorting at the lows of the day and stayed out)...but you can see that Price Action would have been right with another 30pip winning trade had you taken it.

4) Price had dropped from a high of .7070 to a low of .6970 which is around Aussie's normal ADR...therefore I wouldn't be looking for any more shorts. Good thing too, price rallied up and made some new highs for the day.

I hope this helps some of you in your trading see how you need to put a few reasons(confluence of events) together in order to enter a trade and/or stay out of a trade. Try not to focus just one one thing like a Candlestick...you need more evidence to enter a trade. Also, make sure you step back and look at the big picture...example, if price has already moved it's ADR for the day, probably best to stop trading or look for a trade in the opposite direction.

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH1 008.png Size: 140 KB
  • #131
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:05am Feb 10, 2016 9:05am
Quoting PA is King
An example of a trade that just happened. If you had the patience to wait for this to set up, it was an easy trade! {image}


I took the signal off the H1 Bearish engulfing, but only for 20 pips. Given the ADR I wanted to be in and out quickly for this, as Yellen had not testified as yet.

But good to see your charts, and that I'm on a similar wavelength
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au2day.png Size: 40 KB
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #132
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:42am Feb 10, 2016 9:42am
Possible trade setup. Stoploss would be around .7125-30 and standard target around 30-50pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproM15 008.png Size: 115 KB
  • #133
  • Feb 10, 2016 9:45am Feb 10, 2016 9:45am
Regarding my post above...the candle did not close as a Pin Bar...just a normal bearish candle. Price looks like it's going to drop again, but it's not a nice clear Pin Bar that I would like...so no trade for me.
  • #134
  • Feb 10, 2016 10:37am Feb 10, 2016 10:37am
as expected, price has dropped. Aussie formed a triple top around .7120 and could never close above. That was also prior resistance on Monday!
  • #135
  • Feb 10, 2016 10:42am Feb 10, 2016 10:42am
Quoting PA is King
as expected, price has dropped. Aussie formed a triple top around .7120 and could never close above. That was also prior resistance on Monday!
be patient. au is just ranging with no clear direction yet. i have shorts from 7106. waiting for clearer signs of direction
As Above, So Below
  • #136
  • Feb 10, 2016 12:26pm Feb 10, 2016 12:26pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} be patient. au is just ranging with no clear direction yet. i have shorts from 7106. waiting for clearer signs of direction

Not sure what you mean? I was patient as I didn't even enter a trade because it didn't meet my criteria. Also, don't forget I'm a day trader only looking for 30-50pips...which I already got on a prior trade. Everything is going well on my side.
  • #137
  • Feb 11, 2016 6:44am Feb 11, 2016 6:44am
Lots of wild swings in the market today...market makers are really adjusting their books or taking out lots of stops! Either way, it does not provide good trading conditions for my method so I'll will stay out today and probably not trade tomorrow either. Trade Smart!

Have a good weekend everyone!
  • #138
  • Feb 11, 2016 7:00am Feb 11, 2016 7:00am
Quoting PA is King
Lots of wild swings in the market today...market makers are really adjusting their books or taking out lots of stops! Either way, it does not provide good trading conditions for my method so I'll will stay out today and probably not trade tomorrow either. Trade Smart! Have a good weekend everyone!

I'm feeling the same PA after seeing what just happened on USD/JPY. Was good day on USD/AUD today, clear bearish charts, now no telling. Just closed short break even
  • #139
  • Feb 11, 2016 7:07am Feb 11, 2016 7:07am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I'm feeling the same PA after seeing what just happened on USD/JPY. Was good day on USD/AUD today, clear bearish charts, now no telling. Just closed short break even

Yep, price dropped 170pips from the Asian highs down to .6980ish and is already right back up 100pips. Complete whipsawing going on...save your money/pips and trade another day!
  • #140
  • Feb 11, 2016 7:27am Feb 11, 2016 7:27am
I like your advice. I'm out. Had a couple of other shorts on AU with pretty close stops. Let them go at that, didn't want to back off stops and lose any more of what I made

today. Too many nights lately staying up waiting for you Yanks to get out of bed and start moving the market.

Cheers Mate
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