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  • #101
  • Feb 1, 2016 6:13pm Feb 1, 2016 6:13pm
on the flip side, I see the first few support areas at .7050-60, .6990-.7000, and .6940ish.
  • #102
  • Feb 1, 2016 8:58pm Feb 1, 2016 8:58pm
Quoting PA is King
Just looked at the news calendar for the week...lots of big news releases for Aussie, US, and GBP. Trade smart out there....could be choppy/whippy.
Agreed. Still waiting patiently for a set up.
  • #103
  • Feb 2, 2016 12:18am Feb 2, 2016 12:18am
picked up long here around .7070 level based on a few confluences. risky, but risking 30 pips for more than usual target.
  • #104
  • Feb 3, 2016 8:30am Feb 3, 2016 8:30am
Looks like .7000 was the magical support level. 100pips straight up from there.
  • #105
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:45pm Feb 3, 2016 12:45pm
and now we're up 170pips from .7000.
  • #106
  • Feb 3, 2016 1:31pm Feb 3, 2016 1:31pm
Be careful trading folks, the market makers are really adjusting things and making profits for themselves right now. I expect more of the same tomorrow with a climax on Fridays NFP news. Trade Smart!
  • #107
  • Feb 4, 2016 2:56am Feb 4, 2016 2:56am
Sideways consolidation typically equals trend continuation.
  • #108
  • Feb 4, 2016 3:02am Feb 4, 2016 3:02am
Quoting PA is King
Sideways consolidation typically equals trend continuation.

Are you eyeing anything off here?
I'm steering well clear after last nights surge. I probably won't touch AUD again this week with NFP coming tomorrow.
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #109
  • Feb 4, 2016 3:07am Feb 4, 2016 3:07am
As of now, it looks like the 200ema on the Daily chart(.7280-.7300) is the next price target.

On a side note, we all know market makers control price. They have caused some huge moves in price just the past 1-2 weeks on multiple pairs. They have a lot of traders trapped and won't let them out of their trades. So until those traders close their trades for losses or get margin called, I don't expect much to change in price direction. Be careful with NFP tomorrow, could get stop hunts in both directions or another big move against the USD.
  • #110
  • Feb 4, 2016 3:22am Feb 4, 2016 3:22am
I would agree.
It's been my opinion for a while now that the USD has started to find a peak against the major crosses. It seems clear to me that the most force has been in the bounces on EU, AU, and GU.
Given the ever worsening global outlook, oil, equities, the diminishing chances of UK rate rise...I think until there's some key shift in the data, the USD will weaken some.

But, I for one won't be playing in NFP week!
It's a feeding frenzy.
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #111
  • Feb 5, 2016 7:37am Feb 5, 2016 7:37am
Well, quite an interesting week. Lots of major news, some big moves up. Price came just shy of reaching Daily 200ma. And price spiked up and then down after NFP. Hopefully we get back to normal price action next week. Hope you guys and gals trading smart and made some pips!

Have a great weekend everyone!
  • #112
  • Feb 6, 2016 11:33am Feb 6, 2016 11:33am
Hey Guys, just going over the charts and hopefully some of you made some money last week. There was some pretty good volatility, but if you had the direction right, you made pips! I've attached a 1hr chart and 4hr chart just to recap things and give you an idea of what to look forward to this coming week. I hope some of this helps. Cheers!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH1 007.png Size: 177 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH4 001.png Size: 196 KB
  • #113
  • Feb 6, 2016 3:37pm Feb 6, 2016 3:37pm
Quoting PA is King
Hey Guys, just going over the charts and hopefully some of you made some money last week. There was some pretty good volatility, but if you had the direction right, you made pips! I've attached a 1hr chart and 4hr chart just to recap things and give you an idea of what to look forward to this coming week. I hope some of this helps. Cheers! {image} {image}
Thanks PA, just curious that you didn't mention 70c as one of the supports that you see. It was the low for last move up on 4hr chart, do you think it would only be minor support now?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #114
  • Feb 6, 2016 5:46pm Feb 6, 2016 5:46pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Thanks PA, just curious that you didn't mention 70c as one of the supports that you see. It was the low for last move up on 4hr chart, do you think it would only be minor support now?
Good question dab. Just looking left on the charts I don't see where price really found a lot of prior support/resistance at that level. It could be more of a psychological s/r area. So to answer your question, it appears to be more of a minor support level if price breaks down out of that channel.
  • #115
  • Feb 7, 2016 4:13pm Feb 7, 2016 4:13pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Good question dab. Just looking left on the charts I don't see where price really found a lot of prior support/resistance at that level. It could be more of a psychological s/r area. So to answer your question, it appears to be more of a minor support level if price breaks down out of that channel.
Thanks PA, I've closed all my shorts except one and will definitely be closing it before 70c, but not yet sure where. That is more to do with probability of a decent retrace before 70c based on the distance from 7243 high rather than any probability of whether or not we will see lower than 70c.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #116
  • Feb 8, 2016 7:09pm Feb 8, 2016 7:09pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Thanks PA, I've closed all my shorts except one and will definitely be closing it before 70c, but not yet sure where. That is more to do with probability of a decent retrace before 70c based on the distance from 7243 high rather than any probability of whether or not we will see lower than 70c.
May have taken a little while, but we may just reach 70c for you. . I have been away from home for a couple days, wish I had my computer to post some charts for you guys...some good trades. Hope you all are making pips!!!
  • #117
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:35pm Feb 8, 2016 10:35pm
it seems price has found some support at .7020-30 level on the 1 hour chart. It has bounced off .7020 twice forming pin bars, it hasn't closed below .7030 for 4 hours, there is prior support just below on Feb. 3 and Jan. 27, and RSI has divergence. I wouldn't expect a big rally but maybe 30pips is a reasonable target and stop loss around .7010. The longer it goes sideways, less odds of a winning trade. Entry closer to .7020-25 provides a smaller loss if it goes against you.
  • #118
  • Feb 9, 2016 1:58am Feb 9, 2016 1:58am
Bingo, price just hit .7060! The charts don't lie and price action is king. After 7 straight 1hr candles that failed to close below .7030, it was an easy 30pip profit.

Price did a similar thing on Feb. 3, it came down and stalled just above .7010 for 6hrs and then began a 200+ pip rally. Not saying it will/won't rally that much again, but it's something you could have profited from.

Cheers!
  • #119
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:07am Feb 9, 2016 3:07am
at here's a nice bearish engulfing 1hr candle. I was hoping price went up to .7080 and stalled there, but I guess .7070 is close enough. Now we need to see if price can finally close below .7020 for more possible selling. As a personal rule, I don't sell the lows so what I'd be looking for is a move below .7020, maybe even below .700, then a retest of that broken support with rejection, then I could short.

But as of this writing, price bounced off the .7020 area and is back above .7030 yet again.
  • #120
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:21am Feb 9, 2016 3:21am
Hi PA,
General question here: given that the markets seem a little unstable, USD seems to be mixed against it's major pairs, massive yen appreciation yesterday, and Nikkei dropping 5% today...do you consider that type of info when looking at AUD?
AUD seems to be finding support at 0.70 area, but given the current seemingly unusual correlation between the major crosses, I tend to avoid trading on what I would consider normal PA.
Just wondering how you process things.
Thanks.
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
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