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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #138,481
  • Feb 7, 2016 1:26pm Feb 7, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Hey Kevin. Hope you're well. A question related to the Swiss bank/franc debacle a year or so ago. In FX, many folk lost a lot because market moved so fast, stops couldn't be filled. This could happen again. But with options, is a traders risk protected? e.g. can you sleep at night? lol. I'm new to options so still learning the process, but I'm told it's less risky with regard to a market crash like the swissy. Thanks, GB.
Thanks GB, you as well.

Yes, with options, your risk is always protected, and WELL DEFINED in advance. Many times, trades will stay open for multiple weeks, and only require once a day monitoring. No qualms at all about sleeping at night, and imo much less risky to market crashes. In fact, when markets begin to unravel, that only elevates volatility levels (RVX, VIX, VXX) and create much more desirable entries for new trade positions.

Hope that helps, and don't hesitate to reach out while you are learning.
  • #138,482
  • Feb 7, 2016 1:47pm Feb 7, 2016 1:47pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Hey Kevin. Hope you're well. A question related to the Swiss bank/franc debacle a year or so ago. In FX, many folk lost a lot because market moved so fast, stops couldn't be filled. This could happen again. But with options, is a traders risk protected? e.g. can you sleep at night? lol. I'm new to options so still learning the process, but I'm told it's less risky with regard to a market crash like the swissy. Thanks, GB.
Kevin just answered but I'll give a simple example without getting into the little details (especially premium).

A stock (XYZ) is trading @ $50.
I buy 100 shares @ $50 = $5,000 investment.
I buy 1 $45 call @ $5.50 = $550 investment.

Scenario #1: Stock price gets cut by 50% because over the weekend an earthquake destroyed most of the company's assets.
$5,000 stock investment has $2,500 loss.
$550 option investment has $550 loss.

Scenario #2: Stock price doubles because of a buy-out offer over the weekend.
$5,000 stock investment has $5,000 profit.
$550 option investment has $4,950 profit.

So profit can be nearly the same with a big win but loss is much smaller on a big drop.
  • #138,483
  • Feb 7, 2016 2:35pm Feb 7, 2016 2:35pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Kevin just answered but I'll give a simple example without getting into the little details (especially premium). A stock (XYZ) is trading @ $50. I buy 100 shares @ $50 = $5,000 investment. I buy 1 $45 call @ $5.50 = $550 investment. Scenario #1: Stock price gets cut by 50% because over the weekend an earthquake destroyed most of the company's assets. $5,000 stock investment has $2,500 loss. $550 option investment has $550 loss. Scenario #2: Stock price doubles because of a buy-out offer over the weekend. $5,000 stock investment has $5,000...
Thanks Kevin and Srt. I sure like the risk protection associated with trading options Kevin. Good trading this week all. GB.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,484
  • Feb 7, 2016 2:50pm Feb 7, 2016 2:50pm
Quoting Kershey
{quote} 6 weeks no losses straight, and 2 trades fuck you up, typical for J16method. {image}
Hi Kershey,

Reg. the PB on AUDJPY that wiped out your account, I must say I dont agree with Mike that it was a PB in traffic. Many are, and work and still reach a high enough FTA before turning back against you. I took this PB because i estimated the FTA to be slightly higher. I lost. So what?

You have to understand that PBs dont work all the time. You cannot expect that every PB you take will work. You cannot expect to have infinite weeks with winnings. Its impossible. Forex is a probability game.

I think your money management technique is terrible. You cannot lose the winnings from 6 weeks of trading with just 2 trades. That' s plain stupid, and you cannot stay in Forex trading in this way. Secondly, how can you claim J16 is shit if you had 6 weeks of winnings?
I think you need to look yourself in the mirror and realize who is the sucker here. Get yourself together. If you dont understand MM, then there is no place for you in Forex.
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #138,485
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:17pm Feb 7, 2016 3:17pm
Quoting FXBat
{quote} Hi Kershey, Reg. the PB on AUDJPY that wiped out your account, I must say I dont agree with Mike that it was a PB in traffic. Many are, and work and still reach a high enough FTA before turning back against you. I took this PB because i estimated the FTA to be slightly higher. I lost. So what? You have to understand that PBs dont work all the time. You cannot expect that every PB you take will work. You cannot expect to have infinite weeks with winnings. Its impossible. Forex is a probability game. I think your money management technique...
Hi FXbat,

I could've taken that AUD/JPY PB too. It looked good: closed bullish, rejecting s/r level. I have taken such bars and had a few work out, but too often in the past price turned against me exactly like it did. I wondered why. I discovered it is 'location location' as they say in real estate. I used to play PB's and BEOBS/BUOBS as continuation signals (and still will but with much greater care and caution these days) and it would be like tossing a coin. These are reversal bars/signals, and I know that the odds are much more in my favour when I buy these from a swing low, or sell from a swing high. This is why trade didn't work imo. Kershey, you can trade well, just identify and fix your trouble areas friend.

XAU/USD W1. I am watching this area looking for price to turn south and git on board. Approaching weekly highs/PPZ and might be sellers to push price down again. It could also smash through and keep heading north. PA will lead the way.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,486
  • Feb 7, 2016 7:54pm Feb 7, 2016 7:54pm
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} XAU/USD W1. I am watching this area looking for price to turn south and git on board. Approaching weekly highs/PPZ and might be sellers to push price down again. It could also smash through and keep heading north. PA will lead the way. {image}
If price reverses at last swing high can we expect the price to reach 1098 area?
  • #138,487
  • Feb 8, 2016 12:30am Feb 8, 2016 12:30am
Quoting TrendyRanger
{quote} If price reverses at last swing high can we expect the price to reach 1098 area?
My forex crystal ball indy is in for repairs at the moment so hard to say. There is some traffic to get through, but stranger things have happened TR, and this wouldn't be so strange.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,488
  • Feb 8, 2016 12:51am Feb 8, 2016 12:51am
Quoting FXBat
{quote} Hi Kershey, Reg. the PB on AUDJPY that wiped out your account, I must say I dont agree with Mike that it was a PB in traffic. Many are, and work and still reach a high enough FTA before turning back against you. I took this PB because i estimated the FTA to be slightly higher. I lost. So what? You have to understand that PBs dont work all the time. You cannot expect that every PB you take will work. You cannot expect to have infinite weeks with winnings. Its impossible. Forex is a probability game. I think your money management technique...
Looks like I missed some action here with Kershey. My 2 dirhams worth..... I liked the bar but just not in the right location & straight into the 85. On a more important note, I called this the "best thread on the net" a few years ago. It still is. After spending 2 years reading / researching and barely breaking even I found this thread back in 2009. Good, honest folks and extremely eager to please. No hard sell, no sell at all actually. The time and effort taken to respond to peoples questions is truly humbling. I've been lurking for years and never once been asked to become a member or been ignored as a I am a free-loader. Anyway, I could go on. I also had an awesome January (I posted a couple on here) and plan on becoming a member. Mike, James (and all others) please keep up the good, HONEST, work.
  • #138,489
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:24am Feb 8, 2016 1:24am
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} My forex crystal ball indy is in for repairs at the moment so hard to say. There is some traffic to get through, but stranger things have happened TR, and this wouldn't be so strange.
do you really have the crystal ball indy which give you awesome levels by montecarlo simultaive method
Success is a Journey Not a Destination....... kind regards ramzam
  • #138,490
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:41am Feb 8, 2016 1:41am
Quoting ramzam
{quote} do you really have the crystal ball indy which give you awesome levels by montecarlo simultaive method
I have a better crystal ball Ramzam. It's called 'Where is price going' video series by Jim, available in J16 site guest area. You can learn to draw awesome levels yourself without an indy too. Page 1 post 1 and follow links.

Grousman. Congrats on your January trading month. My thoughts echo yours. Jim and Mike have shown themselves to be generous genuine guys. Even moreso in the PF. My 2nd month there and worth the price of admission. GB.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,491
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:17am Feb 8, 2016 4:17am
Four trades today (to many i know)!! All BE after nice retraces coming off ppz's or t/l's.
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  • #138,492
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:50am Feb 8, 2016 4:50am
Quoting FXBat
{quote} Hi Kershey, Reg. the PB on AUDJPY that wiped out your account, I must say I dont agree with Mike that it was a PB in traffic. Many are, and work and still reach a high enough FTA before turning back against you. I took this PB because i estimated the FTA to be slightly higher. I lost. So what? You have to understand that PBs dont work all the time. You cannot expect that every PB you take will work. You cannot expect to have infinite weeks with winnings. Its impossible. Forex is a probability game. I think your money management technique...
Such a words of wisdom
  • #138,493
  • Feb 8, 2016 5:16am Feb 8, 2016 5:16am
Nice work Bill.

GBP/USD H4 BEOVB strong performance.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,494
  • Feb 8, 2016 5:31am Feb 8, 2016 5:31am
Quoting Guitarbloke
Nice work Bill. GBP/USD H4 BEOVB strong performance. {image}
Good stuff Gbloke

GBP JPY Picking up speed too . Manually managing this. Some off at 168.10 and will set TP at 167.70 and move SL to BE as soon as I head out shortly. Outside bar that sliced through a BRN.
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  • #138,495
  • Feb 8, 2016 5:52am Feb 8, 2016 5:52am
Quoting Bill618
Four trades today (to many i know)!! All BE after nice retraces coming off ppz's or t/l's. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hey Bill - What was the signal you used for buying gold? 4 trades and all into BE, nice.
  • #138,496
  • Feb 8, 2016 6:02am Feb 8, 2016 6:02am
Quoting Guitarbloke
{quote} Hi FXbat, I could've taken that AUD/JPY PB too. It looked good: closed bullish, rejecting s/r level. I have taken such bars and had a few work out, but too often in the past price turned against me exactly like it did. I wondered why. I discovered it is 'location location' as they say in real estate. I used to play PB's and BEOBS/BUOBS as continuation signals (and still will but with much greater care and caution these days) and it would be like tossing a coin. These are reversal bars/signals, and I know that the odds are much more in my...
Hi GB, i dont know what to say. I had many lost trades taking PBs at what i considered swing lows, and the market came like an avalanche over me, because it was just way too strong to be stopped by a PB. Of course, most likely the location was not good, there were very few orders in that area. So I think the odds of win/lose for PA as a continuation or reversal patterns are quite similar. For me it makes more sense to take a PA as a continuation pattern, because the market already has a direction and the odds of reversal are much smaller.

In the end I think its just a matter of good MM and I am also working hard towards developing a strong sense of nailing down the FTA as in James' videos - where does the price go? If I will be able to correctly target the FTA before the price reverses, I think my road to happiness will be wide open because almost any PA hits the FTA before it goes against you.

PA works, James and Mike's teachings are real and one can make money with them 100%, its just oneself who is the only problem.

Cheers and good trading
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #138,497
  • Edited 2:53pm Feb 8, 2016 6:29am | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting FXBat
{quote} Hi GB, i dont know what to say. I had many lost trades taking PBs at what i considered swing lows, and the market came like an avalanche over me, because it was just way too strong to be stopped by a PB. Of course, most likely the location was not good, there were very few orders in that area. So I think the odds of win/lose for PA as a continuation or reversal patterns are quite similar. For me it makes more sense to take a PA as a continuation pattern, because the market already has a direction and the odds of reversal are much smaller....
Yes true enough Fxbat. Good trading to you too friend.

Grousman, re Gold, looks like Bill combined those 2 bullish bars to form a BUOB from what I can see.

Edit: USD/CAD H4 IB cluster breakaway north-continuation trade. Looking for a lazy 100 pips up to BRN 1.40000

Update: out at BE.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #138,498
  • Feb 8, 2016 8:20am Feb 8, 2016 8:20am
GBPUSD H1. Is this a valid pin bar for long?

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  • #138,499
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:43pm Feb 8, 2016 2:43pm
Quoting Grousman
{quote} Hey Bill - What was the signal you used for buying gold? 4 trades and all into BE, nice.
Hey there G-man. Yes 4 trades and i have woken up just now to see they all went to TP. Happy days.
As for Gold, the main signal was the very BIG engulfing 8h BUOB (2 x 4h combined). The bar preceeding this was a decent size BEOB but the 8h then said "uh uh my friend, we ain't going down anytime soon, just up and away!". The 8h is HUGE compared to all the bars around.

There was other confluence of course but the main other very important factor here, is the trend.
If i, in my short currency trading life, can give newbies/anyone any advice it is, and i quote:
The trend is your friend.
Go with the flow.
If you piss into the wind you will get piss on you.
It's much easier to row a boat with the current.
Follow the others otherwise you will be exposed and left alone - i don't want to be alone.

What i am working towards is making more from my trends (like i do with my shares) but at the moment i'm still trading mostly intraday whilst i learn from my experiences and you beautiful people on this thread and the PF.

This is why i struggle with PB's because they by nature almost always go against trend.

My trading "hero" Nicolas Darvas once said about his extremely successful trend following system - "I have never bought a stock at the low or sold one at the high in my life. I'm happy to be along for most of the ride."

Bill
  • #138,500
  • Edited 4:29pm Feb 8, 2016 2:44pm | Edited 4:29pm
Usd/jpy h1. Wipg?

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Update: 115.84 hit then reversed.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
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